2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[GoTfan]

Trump has won.

Not yet. I still think Biden is a narrow favorite, but a Trump victory would not surprise me at all at this point.

No, he has definitely won.

[GoTfan]

Trump has won.

Not yet. I still think Biden is a narrow favorite, but a Trump victory would not surprise me at all at this point.

No, he has definitely won.

Can you seriously STFU you broken record!? Unless you actually have some analysis or vote totals to report, please go sit in the corner while the grown-ups actually try to follow the election.

 seriously man, you've become nothing more than purely annoying tonight

This 'broken record' has been more right than you have.

You really need to cool it.
Please concentrate on data, rather than repeating the same thing over and over again.

I am, and the data points to Trump being re-elected. Deny it all you want, it doesn't change reality.

[GoTfan]

Trump advisor just came on NBC and said theyre going to win Minnesota and then win the election on the wave of black/latino voters.

Honestly, it's increasingly likely.

[GoTfan]

Arizona is a big blow to any chance for Trump and the fact NE-02, Wis, Mi, and Penn all are looking good for Biden should put the doomers to bed

Isn't Trump ahead by a pretty good margin?

[GoTfan]

Doomers are pretty right so far.

[GoTfan]

Numbers are pretty good for Trump in Wisconsin right now.

[GoTfan]

Doomers are pretty right so far.

You're pretty annoying so far.

This is the problem with Biden sycophants. Every time someone's proven right about their God-Emperor's deficiences, they're ignored and told to shut up.

Don’t see Biden losing this race with AZ called and MI/WI looking good. Or do I miss something?

Trump leads significantly in Pennsylvania and Michigan and with a smaller lead in Wisconsin.

Also Iowa looks confirmed for Trump, as does NC and Iowa.

How do you come to the conclusion that MI and WI look good?

Is it because they haven't counted mail in votes yet?

YES!! For the love of god has no one been paying attention to the past 5 months and how much mail ballots were going to be a difference maker this year

If you're relying on that to save Wisconsin, you've already lost.

[GoTfan]

If james is leading in Michigan, then Biden likely loses the state.

[GoTfan]

Doomers are pretty right so far.

You're pretty annoying so far.

This is the problem with Biden sycophants. Every time someone's proven right about their God-Emperor's deficiences, they're ignored and told to shut up.

Don’t see Biden losing this race with AZ called and MI/WI looking good. Or do I miss something?

Trump leads significantly in Pennsylvania and Michigan and with a smaller lead in Wisconsin.

Also Iowa looks confirmed for Trump, as does NC and Iowa.

How do you come to the conclusion that MI and WI look good?

Is it because they haven't counted mail in votes yet?

YES!! For the love of god has no one been paying attention to the past 5 months and how much mail ballots were going to be a difference maker this year

If you're relying on that to save Wisconsin, you've already lost.

Trump is leading by only 3% with only 50% in with most of Milwaukee and Madison out. How is that lost?!

Gee, I don't know, maybe the fact that this was the single biggest polling error in history?

[GoTfan]

Georgia looks like it will go Biden

In what works? Because the unreliable needle says so?

You’re really stuck on this aren’t you?

It’s been explained a million times: The outstanding vote is heavily Democratic. It may or may not be enough to win it, but it’s foolish to act like it’s impossible. Let alone to run around screaming at everyone who says quite correctly that it is possible.

I'm incredibly skeptical. Trump will launch legal challenge after legal challenge.

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/PeterSweden7/status/1323868120453423105?s=20

Call the damn state for him already.

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/philipaklein/status/1323878083716435968

Bad news for Biden.

[GoTfan]

The Wisconsin mail drop is the moment of truth for Biden's reelection chances IMO. If it looks bad there it bodes terribly for Pennslyvania.

I'm optimistic. Extrapolating the Milwaukee vote share, Biden should cut the margin by at least 80000, and that's not even accounting for the fact many (most?) of these are absentee.

Still leaves Trump with a 20,000+ margin.

[GoTfan]

Clinton got a 282k lead out of Milwaukee county
Biden only has a 53k lead out Milwaukee countee

Trump only leads Wisconsin by 110k

I think Biden gets Milwaukee and wins Wisconsin somewhat closely if he gets 200k+ lead out of Milwaukee

Also right Milwaukee county is 59-38 Biden, Clinton won here 65-28. just for perspective

So he's underperforming Clinton in a city he NEEDS to win.

Call it for Trump already.

[GoTfan]

Clinton got a 282k lead out of Milwaukee county
Biden only has a 53k lead out Milwaukee countee

Trump only leads Wisconsin by 110k

I think Biden gets Milwaukee and wins Wisconsin somewhat closely if he gets 200k+ lead out of Milwaukee

Also right Milwaukee county is 59-38 Biden, Clinton won here 65-28. just for perspective

So he's underperforming Clinton in a city he NEEDS to win.

Call it for Trump already.

He only is “underperforming” because it’s largely the more Democratic-leaning mail vote that is out.

Not gonna call it for Trump when the math says otherwise.

Also, he actually wouldn’t need to win it if he wins GA (math says he is on track to do that too, narrowly). Then he needs just ONE of the big three now that he’s flipped AZ and NE-02.

That's still a very, very, VERY big if.

[GoTfan]

If you think Trump is going to win, you are essentially saying that you think Minnesota (which counted mail ballots quicker than other midwest states) is going to vote TEN POINTS to the left of Wisconsin. Think about that for a second.

Yeah, I have, and I'm pretty confident of it.

[GoTfan]

Well, I guess I am going to try to call it a night. We'll see how long I can actually stay away.

While I get the theory of Milwaukee eliminating trump's lead in Wisconsin, it really looks like it Biden might fall just short. Really nervous there, and I don't feel great putting my faith in Georgia. MI and PA are total unknowns at this point.

This is going to end up being a really disappointing night, with sure things of a smaller House majority and Republican Senate. But if Biden can pull this off in the end, even if its close, getting trump out of the White House is a significant victory. I guess we can deal with the tough road ahead after we feel good about that.

I'm leaving things in your hands! Bring this home!

Trump will win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for sure. Georgia will be a recount that Biden will likely lose.

[GoTfan]

What we really need is an insurance state.  Biden winning with 270 electoral votes precisely will embolden Trump to encourage his freakshow to contest this and steal it in the courts.

Biden can still win North Carolina and Georgia. For all we know, Biden gets the clean sweep and it becomes more clear in the electoral college.

He cannot win NC

[GoTfan]

Pretty much everything people have been warning would likely happen for months is happening: Red mirage gives Trump an illusory lead in the rust belt states that take too long to count mail-in vote on election night, so he tries to declare victory and says the count should be stopped.

Good news is based on recent rulings, I highly doubt SCOTUS allows that crap. What’s his case anyway? “All mail-in ballots are fraud and should be thrown out!” won’t hold up in court.

You're not paying attention

[GoTfan]

According to my map here on my screen, Biden only has one path left:

WI + GA

Assuming:

Biden already has AZ, NV, ME
Trump already has PA, NC, MI

With so many early ballots to be counted, and with Biden only 120,000 behind in each state, there is a big chance for Biden to steal this at the bell.

Trump will have a meltdown unless this count gets organised quickly tomorrow.

Trump doesnt have PA and MI yet.

Yes he does

[GoTfan]

Can someone give me a succinct breakdown of what's outstanding in MI, WI, and PA?  I can't find anything decent in the media.

In particular, in PA Biden is down by 13 with 26% of the vote left.  Is there any reason to believe that he can win the remaining vote 2-1?

No there is not

[GoTfan]

According to my map here on my screen, Biden only has one path left:

WI + GA

Assuming:

Biden already has AZ, NV, ME, VA
Trump already has PA, NC, MI

With so many early ballots to be counted, and with Biden only 120,000 behind in each state, there is a big chance for Biden to steal this at the bell.

Trump will have a meltdown regardless.

Biden is almost certain to win Michigan.  Look at where the remaining vote is and the patterns between election day and early vote.  He makes up his current deficit with the outstanding vote from Wayne county alone.  I think this will also be true in WI and PA, though it will be closer there.

Thanks Nick.

If what you are saying is true, MI, WI and GA give Joe Biden a comfortable election win with an EC number of around 288.

Don't tell GoTfan that. lol

What a shame he'll lose all three.

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/populismupdates/status/1323896983313018880?s=21

Is this true

75% of the 1.4 million mail in votes that still need to be counted, not necessarily 75% of all the votes still needing to be counted.

Yes.  There's 26% left, and Trump leads by 13.  Biden needs to win 19.5 - 6.5 of that remaining 26 to make up the 13.  That's a 3-1 margin, or 75%.

Then that's terrible news

[GoTfan]

Can someone give me a succinct breakdown of what's outstanding in MI, WI, and PA?  I can't find anything decent in the media.

In particular, in PA Biden is down by 13 with 26% of the vote left.  Is there any reason to believe that he can win the remaining vote 2-1?

No there is not

Pennsylvania's mail-in vote leant Democratic by something like 40 points. There's plenty of reason to believe Biden can overcome the margin.

Except there's not. There is literally no reason to believe he can make this up. He needs 75% of the state's outstanding votes, which will not happen

[GoTfan]

Can someone give me a succinct breakdown of what's outstanding in MI, WI, and PA?  I can't find anything decent in the media.

In particular, in PA Biden is down by 13 with 26% of the vote left.  Is there any reason to believe that he can win the remaining vote 2-1?

No there is not

Pennsylvania's mail-in vote leant Democratic by something like 40 points. There's plenty of reason to believe Biden can overcome the margin.

Except there's not. There is literally no reason to believe he can make this up. He needs 75% of the state's outstanding votes, which will not happen

You don't actually know how many votes are left in Pennsylvania, and nobody does. They accept mail-ins that arrive up to three days after Election Day.

Are you even paying attention at all?

John King LITERALLY SAID HE NEEDS 75% OF OUTSTANDING VOTES