2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (user search)
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  2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 173500 times)
Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #50 on: October 18, 2020, 07:59:25 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 18, 2020, 07:54:40 PM
Relevant to the discussion about who's doing better in the early voting, here's someone with access to better data than most of us have:



What is that original tweet even talking about? Everything across the board looks better for Democrats than 2016 at least.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #51 on: October 19, 2020, 10:44:25 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 19, 2020, 10:42:28 AM


So... Republicans are being routed in mail-in voting, which is where their strength usually lies. So, folks predicted that they would make up for it when early voting started, which is where the usual strength is for Democrats, which makes sense given the shifting dynamics of a mid-pandemic election.

However, Republicans are also losing the early vote?
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #52 on: October 19, 2020, 10:48:13 AM »
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 19, 2020, 10:44:50 AM
UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
·
22m
Florida EV as of 11:10 AM

Dem 42,645
Rep 37,908

Total 94,670

49/67 counties reporting

?? Michigan doesn't have party registration.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #53 on: October 19, 2020, 10:51:08 AM »
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 19, 2020, 10:50:02 AM
Quote from: Arch on October 19, 2020, 10:48:13 AM
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 19, 2020, 10:44:50 AM
UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
·
22m
Florida EV as of 11:10 AM

Dem 42,645
Rep 37,908

Total 94,670

49/67 counties reporting

?? Michigan doesn't have party registration.

Got it. Missed the "Florida" part after I saw the "UMich Voter" headline at the top.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #54 on: October 19, 2020, 01:57:10 PM »
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 19, 2020, 01:56:15 PM
Florida In-Person EV as of 2:40 PM

Rep 85,744
Dem 83,311
NPA/Others 25,373

Total 200,249

50/67 counties reporting

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

Nothing yet from Miami-Dade.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #55 on: October 19, 2020, 01:59:54 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 19, 2020, 01:59:13 PM
Quote from: Arch on October 19, 2020, 01:57:10 PM
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 19, 2020, 01:56:15 PM
Florida In-Person EV as of 2:40 PM

Rep 85,744
Dem 83,311
NPA/Others 25,373

Total 200,249

50/67 counties reporting

https://tinyurl.com/y2wulups

Nothing yet from Miami-Dade.

Is there a reason Miami-Dade has been slow in general reporting the past few weeks? Not just today but also with their mail in ballots?

Miami-Dade in every election:
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #56 on: October 19, 2020, 03:07:21 PM »

lmao. It literally said that there was a postal day off. It's not like the ballots disappeared into the ether. Try harder.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #57 on: October 19, 2020, 09:12:03 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on October 19, 2020, 09:07:41 PM
So let me see if I have this right:

— Basically even in in-person voting
— Big Dem advantage in mail voting
— Miami-Dade still out

Sounds good for Dems then, right?

Yes
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #58 on: October 19, 2020, 10:37:34 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 19, 2020, 10:32:21 PM


WTB breakdown of totals, but it's looking like Democrats netted votes from both mail and early voting today in FL.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #59 on: October 19, 2020, 10:42:37 PM »
New update: >31M have voted already. New York still has no numbers. When does NY start reporting? We're looking to be well into the 40Ms or 50Ms next week at this rate.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #60 on: October 19, 2020, 10:55:26 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2020, 10:59:09 PM by Arch »
Quote from: Single Issue Covid Voter on October 19, 2020, 10:45:07 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 19, 2020, 10:40:01 PM
~27% of the voters so far in El Paso County didn't vote in 2016.


The Beto machine.

Am I doing this right, John Dule?
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #61 on: October 20, 2020, 01:30:00 AM »
So a net gain of >6K votes for Democrats in Nevada despite Republicans winning the early vote (though not by much).
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #62 on: October 20, 2020, 10:51:25 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2020, 10:54:28 AM by Arch »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 10:25:49 AM
Quote from: Beida on October 20, 2020, 10:18:28 AM
The line at my local polling place in Waukesha county was longer than it is on most election days, in my experience. Turnout is going to be gigantic this election.

That's a GOP area right?  So it seems both sides are energized.

If both sides were equally energized throughout this period, we wouldn't be seeing the extreme discrepancies in partisan registration that we're seeing across the whole country (where available).
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #63 on: October 20, 2020, 10:55:43 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 20, 2020, 10:54:03 AM


Whatever is happening in Texas is completely wild and certainly a change from the status quo, and a change in the status quo in Texas is not good news for Republicans in this environment.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #64 on: October 20, 2020, 02:57:21 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on October 20, 2020, 02:54:02 PM
Is mail voting slowing down. I think in Florida, Wisconsin and a few other it has or do people procrastinate by sending it later

Postal holiday yesterday, so we should be picking back up soon, not that we're being slow. Dane county is already at 70% returns.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #65 on: October 20, 2020, 08:55:33 PM »
Quote from: Unbeatable Titan Donna Shalala on October 20, 2020, 08:54:42 PM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on October 20, 2020, 08:30:11 PM


Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Seems like Miami-Dade not being included here is a pretty big caveat.

How long does Miami-Dade actually take to report each night??
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #66 on: October 20, 2020, 10:25:02 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2020, 10:36:01 PM by Arch »
Quote from: Bootes Void on October 20, 2020, 10:23:38 PM
Quote from: UBI man good on October 20, 2020, 10:21:15 PM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on October 20, 2020, 08:30:11 PM


Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance
Deeply deeply concerning.
I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

How is this concerning if Democrats are just voting in different ways and in much higher numbers than 2016? What are you on about, UBI??
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #67 on: October 20, 2020, 10:27:06 PM »
Quote from: UBI man good on October 20, 2020, 10:26:08 PM
Quote from: swf541 on October 20, 2020, 10:24:25 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on October 20, 2020, 10:23:38 PM
Quote from: UBI man good on October 20, 2020, 10:21:15 PM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on October 20, 2020, 08:30:11 PM


Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance
Deeply deeply concerning.
I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning
Look at predictit

-_- Sometimes I forget that most folks here don't know much about statistics, and then posts like these come up.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #68 on: October 20, 2020, 10:48:03 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2020, 11:26:00 PM by Arch »
So... Let me get this straight. The Democrats' statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #69 on: October 20, 2020, 11:32:58 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 20, 2020, 11:28:53 PM
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on October 20, 2020, 11:27:45 PM
Ralston reported that Reps beat Dems 2-1 in Washoe today.


yeah:



And VBM??
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #70 on: October 20, 2020, 11:39:56 PM »
Ralston knows how to rile up folks. He knows the VBM will likely cut that down if not reverse it, but he's drumming it up. He did that yesterday too.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #71 on: October 20, 2020, 11:44:05 PM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on October 20, 2020, 11:40:15 PM
Quote from: Arch on October 20, 2020, 11:39:56 PM
Ralston knows how to rile up folks. He knows the VBM will likely cut that down if not reverse it, but he's drumming it up. He did that yesterday too.

When should we get the VBM numbers?

Soon
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #72 on: October 21, 2020, 10:00:56 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2020, 11:18:08 AM by Arch »
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 21, 2020, 09:57:56 AM
BritishSocialConservative
@BritishConserv3
·
2h
Holy moly, The GOP is winning the early vote in Miami-Dade!
Quote Tweet
UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
 · 2h
MIAMI-DADE Day 2 Early Vote:

Rep 16,521
Dem 16,146
NPA/Other 9,263
Total 41,930

MIAMI-DADE Day 2 VBM:

Dem 19,425
Rep 9,010
NPA/Other 8,779
Total 37,214

Overall D gain of over 10,000 in Miami-Dade and nearly 10,000 statewide.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #73 on: October 21, 2020, 10:43:25 AM »
WI clocked in nearly 200,000 votes on the first day of EV + Postal Office running again. Democrat counties are now close to 75% returns on VBM ballots.
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #74 on: October 21, 2020, 09:31:57 PM »
Quote from: Single Issue Covid Voter on October 21, 2020, 09:29:52 PM
I hate this election already and not a single state has been called.

This is 100% your own doing. Stop being an elections bed wetter.
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