International COVID-19 Megathread

[President Johnson]

Russia apparently has "corrected" their death toll, German Tagesschau reports. Official numbers now say 186,000 people died from Covid in Russia, was 53,000 before.

[President Johnson]

First day with over a thousand deaths in Germany reported. 1,129 to be exact. Signs are pointing to a continued shutdown beyond January 10, which is the current expiration date.

Meanwhile, Great Britain has approved AstraZeneca vaccine.

[President Johnson]

German federal government is under a little fire for not ordering enough of Pfizer/Biontech vaccine soon enough. At this point, over 238,000 vaccinations took place.

Meanwhile, reports coming out the shutdown will be extended beyond January 10. Presumably to the end of January. Official decision expected next week.

[President Johnson]

In Germany all Measures to be extended through January. In Addition the Prohibitions on Gatherings of more than of 5 Persons from 2 Households is tightened to 2 People from 2 Households, the same rule we had in late March. And where Incidence is over 200 per 100k all nonessential Movements outside of 15km radius from Home banned. Plus Travel into Germany from almost anywhere only allowed with negative Test before arrival (in addition to the already mandatory Quarantine and Test after 5 Days).

Truly becoming like Gillette razor blades. This was already supposed to be a hard lockdown, so what is this, ultrahard Lockdown?
The Motivation is understandable, there is still alot of Household mixing going on and there have been big problems in the last few days of large amounts of people from Urban Areas flooding rural areas such as Winterberg or the Alps, much to the (justified) anger of the Locals.  

But this increasingly seems like just throwing the Kitchen sink. What difference is, beyond cosmetics, going from 5 from 2 Households to 2 from 2 supposed to make? What is the 15km limitation supposed to achieve when the Areas where the Day-tourists are coming from (Munich, Rhein/Ruhr) are not going to be affected, as their Incidence is not above 200?

One good thing Merkel pledged was more genome sequencing, which has been lacking in almost all European Countries except UK and Denmark. Because of this it is very difficult to ascertain the extent of the spread of the British Variant. It does seem that it is overall nowhere near as common as in the UK yet, one of the few reliable estimations that I have read is that in Ireland they say it is found only in about 5-17% of new Cases. It can be expected to be less on the Continent due to the fact that Ireland is one of the Countries with the highest amount of Interaction with the UK.

Fortunately Baden-Württemberg only has few counties above the critical 200 mark (mine is "only" at 100 as of today). One of them is Pforzheim/Enzkreis, where my parents live. So I can visit them, but they can't vise versa because of the 15km radius (and theoretically only alone).

Two from two households instead of five perhaps makes sense. Generally, the less contacts the better. Whether this particular rule will make a difference, nobody knows. Enforcement is another story anyway; the police won't raid private homes unless there is an apparent violation such as crowded parties going on.

One of the biggest problems is the fact that there is still not enough sufficient data where a lot of infections occur, particularly the role of schools. Different studies contradict themselves on the question whether schools are superspreader events or not. As a result of lacking data/studies, a several political decisions are precautionary measures where we don't knowabout effectivness in advance. Some of these are certainly problematic since basic civil liberties are heavily restricted. And that makes the role of courts even more important, who already ruled some restrictions invalid in recent months.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Moderna vaccine has been approved by EMA within the entire EU.

[President Johnson]

Lockdown still doesn't show much of an effect. Over 26,000 cases today and the new record in deaths, over 1,100.

At least the EU has ordered another 300 million shots from Pfizer/Biontech vaccine that's being assigned to countries by population.

Our radio station also reported that Pfizer/Biontech vaccine is effective against both UK and South African mutation.

[President Johnson]

Seems like Israel was already vaccinated 20% of their population, according to German news sources. If true, this would be incredible. If this continues, cases and deaths should severely drop in a few months. I'm no fan of Bibi by any means, but seems like he's actually doing a good job on this one.

[President Johnson]

First italian Covid-19 case go back to November 2019
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjd.19804

Which would be a couple of months before it was "officially" discovered.

So highly significant if true.

AFAIK the first official now was 1st december so less one month, however there are rumors that unofficially was from november, talking of China

Hot take: The 1st transmission happened in Q2 or Q3 of 2019 in the PRC. I think I read this somewhere a few months ago.

This article suggests the virus was in Italy as early as September: https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-17/COVID-19-was-spreading-in-Italy-by-September-2019-study-indicates-VuSqUttP8s/index.html

That's not even a hot take. Some studies found this, but it's not a confirmed census yet. Encouraging news came today: China has approved a team of WHO experts entering the country to seek the origin of the virus. We may never know the full answer, but we may get more information as a result.

[President Johnson]

Deadliest day of the pandemic: 1,244 reported deaths from yesterday.

Rumors are that the shotdown will even last beyond the end of this month, which would be the second extension. Meanwhile, 1% of the population has been vaccinated so far, around 840k people.

[President Johnson]

Widespread panic over this supposed new "Brazilian variant" of Covid now.

Almost every country now seems to have their own variant: UK, South Africa, USA and now Brazil.

It was always going to diversify. This is just a natural destination for any virus. The increased rate of transmissions are pretty worrisome in the short term because hospitals are already on the edge whereever you look, despite the mutation not being more deadly. The really important question is how effective vaccines are against mutations. So far, and that's the good news, there is no evidence vaccines are less effective. A recent study confirmed Pfizer/Biontech vaccine is equally effective against the UK version.

[President Johnson]

As expected, Germany has extended the lockdown to February 14. Schools will also remain closed and the government is looking for decrees to extend working at home wherever possible. Cases recently dropped, but still 11,000 news cases yesterday.

[President Johnson]

As expected, Germany has extended the lockdown to February 14. Schools will also remain closed and the government is looking for decrees to extend working at home wherever possible. Cases recently dropped, but still 11,000 news cases yesterday.

The proposed nightly curfews have been shelved though due to resistance from (mostly) SPD minister-presidents. Considering the federal system that was a somewhat unsurprising development, I might add. Merkel aside, nationally mandated curfews were supported by minister-presidents of states who had already them in place for weeks. They were opposed by minister-presidents of states who don't have curfews so far. In the end this stalemate was resolved by just leaving everything as it is.

Yeah, though it's still in place in my state (BaWü) as far as I know. I'd prefer that be taken back because I seriously doubt it has a meaningful effect, but causes more confusion than use.

[President Johnson]

The problem with lifting restrictions is the same as I said last spring: As soon as restrictions are taken back or eased, cases start rising again.

Germany's biggest problem at this point is a lack of enough available vaccine doses. The EU ordered a little too late since they negotiated prices down and because Biontech is actually start-up company that just needs its production capabilities build up. A major production facility in Marburg is expected to get started in February. Israel has done a much better job with vaccinations, even the US under Trump ordered more doses early on. We quickly need to get that fixed so that mass vaccination is done by next fall. At least to a degree that we can get out of this permanent lockdown that has already exhaused people and ruined several businesses.

[President Johnson]

Embarrassing that Germany lags behind, given Pfizer/Biontech vaccine was actually developed here. The federal government and EU need to get their act together quickly. Also, the malefactors need to speed production up.

At least it seems numbers of daily cases are dropping again, while deaths remain at a high level. From today on, Germany has a stricter mask mandate, requiring medical or FFP2 masks in transportation and stores, some states also require said masks in working places. These masks not just protects others, but yourself. However, they're more expensive and can only be worn for a couple of hours.

[President Johnson]

Some more good news. Anti-body cocatails are effective against mutations (at least this study finds):

https://twitter.com/Regeneron/status/1354399692491206657

[President Johnson]

New "Profil" magazine poll:

By a 64-29 margin, Austrians want ALL ski areas closed (even a majority of FPÖ-voters).

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-64-sind-dafuer-die-skigebiete-zu-schliessen/401173123

Isn't the problem so called Après-Ski and social gatherings afterwards rather than just being out in the snow? Since gastronomy is closed, I'm not sure this will have an impact.

[President Johnson]

Today is the so-called "vaccination summit" of German federal and state governments. A couple of politicians have also started to ramp up their rhetoric, including Markus "Bavarian Che Guevara" Söder (CSU) who has gone on the record saying that the free market has failed in producing vaccines in adequate numbers, and that the government taking control of and directing vaccine production must be on the table as an option. Perhaps as a result of these threats, a couple of biopharmaceutical companies have started to promise to increase their vaccine deliveries.

(This was probably Markus Söder at his most Söder btw. If there's something that it is very popular/populist with the additional benefit of being very authoritarian you can be certain that Söder is always going to go for it. Not that I necessarily disagree with him in this specific case (provided that it would actually help produce more vaccine), but it also shows his general lack of convictions and principles IMO. He's switching back and forth between positions that could be at home in the AfD, Greens, Left Party, or FDP depending on which ones are most popular/populist and/or most authoritarian at any given point.)

Let's hope this more of a success than the various other summits held at the chancellery, like the real estate summit ("Wohnungsgipfel"), that produced no results. Obviously production and late orders from the EU is what caused the delays in vaccine delivery and distribution, but that each state is setting up its own system is also not very helpful. I wish the federal government would manage most of the pandemic related decisions, including lockdown restrictions. The state by state stuff, what I would call "Kleinstaaterei" in German, has always been annoying and ineffective.

[President Johnson]

A study was published that Russian vaccine Sputnik V is actually safe and effective 91%, which is close to Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna and better than Astra Zeneca. The Russians seek permission for the vaccine in the EU and offered a purchase of 100 million dosis. While I was skeptical in the beginning, I'd actually take it if European and American medical experts determine it's safe and working.

Direct link to the study (according to German news sources, this medical paper is one of high reputation): https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00234-8/fulltext

[President Johnson]

Germany is likely to once again continue the lockdown today. Numbers continue to decline, but the virus mutations from the UK and South Africa are a source for major concern. Experts are warning that lifting restrictions could quickly lead into a third wave. Merkel is definitely on the hardline here and doesn't see any room for taking measures back.

Meanwhile, a state court in Baden-Württemberg has suspended the nightly curfew from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m., agreeing with a woman who filed a lawsuit. The court ruled that the current situation no longer justifies the measure. However, the state government wants a reinstate nightly curfew in counties with more than 50 cases per 100k in seven weeks, starting at 9 p.m.

[President Johnson]

There is a hot discussion in Germany about the AstraZeneca vaccine because some people have expressed concerns about its effectiveness (after countries like South Africa have stopped vaccination with this one). However, leading virologists say there is no reason not to take this vaccine and some op eds slam critics, calling it a "luxury problem".

What should be noted though that the percentage of effectiveness only applies to actually getting sick with cough and moderate pain. 60% effectiveness does not mean four in ten people get seriously ill. All the approved vaccines in the EU and US de facto prevent severe sickness or death. Unfortunately, these percentage figures are kinda confusing and the media doesn't explain that often enough.

[President Johnson]

Looks like the drop in cases has stalled in Germany. Numbers are actually slightly rising again. There are still 60 infections per 100k in seven days. Target was actually 50 or later 35 for lifting the lockdown. However, elementary resumed in person classes today, while barber shops will reopen on March 1. But non-essential shops and gastronomy are still closed since December, which is an economic disaster.

[President Johnson]

Next stages in the UK vaccine rollout have been announced.

(though as an over-50, I am still waiting to hear when I will get my first jab)

It's pathetic how slow and incompetent EU countries and the commission have administered the vaccine rollout and purchase, especially compared to the UK, Israel and the US. Even Trump at least ordered more doses a lot sooner than the EU did.

When it comes to that, I'm actually kinda relieved to have a "natural immunity" now, at least for the coming months until they (hopefully) get things moving.

[President Johnson]

Barber shops have reopened in Germany today, after being closed since December. Some even took their first customers at midnight.

I was early in getting an appointment for tomorrow. About damn time, I got my last haircut in early December.

[President Johnson]

The situation is the Czech Republic seems extremely worrisome, especially because the B117 British mutation is so far spread over there. The Czech government has officially requested assistance from Germany, Poland and Switzerland because their hospitals are running out of ressources. Germany has already responded by accepting to take Czech patients to give them some relief. The same has been done for France, Belgium and Italy in the past.

[President Johnson]

Johnson & Johnson vaccine has now been recommended for final approval by the European Medicines Agency. The EU itsself finally has to issue approval, which is expected to happen very soon. This vaccine has two major pros compared to others: just one shot is needed and it just needs fridge temperatures for storage/delivery.

Meanwhile, Denmark has stopped AstraZeneca vaccination to do research on a number of reported sideeffects.