International COVID-19 Megathread

[President Johnson]

Hopefully this won't come true:

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1239288683578249216

[President Johnson]

Here we go: Germany will shut down all nonessential stores and gatherings. Restaurants must close at 6 pm. Supermarkets, grocery stores, pharmacies, cosmetics stores, craft businesses, newspaper stores and gas stations remain open. Supermarkets are even permitted remain open on Sundays as well, which is usually not the case.

All nighclubs, fitness centers, sports clubs, public swimming pools and churches will be closed. Hotel stays are largely banned, especially for tourism. Schools and universities have already been shut down.

[President Johnson]

EU is shutting down borders now. Germany wants to implement to measure immediately. Federal government is currently looking for ways to get travelers home, who are German citizens.

221 confirmed cases
833 suspected cases
5 deaths

We also have the first recovery, that of the first patient.

We're expecting the pandemic to reach its' height in about 2-3 weeks.

Wow, that's a fast rise in Poland. Today, I read the Polish minister for environment is also infected.

[President Johnson]

Germany:

9,352 confirmed infections
- 3,375 in North Rhine-Westphalia
- 1,641 in Baden-Württemberg
- 1,352 in Bavaria
Death toll: 24 (all in the aforementioned three states except one, who died in Hamburg)



Italy:

31,506 confirmed infections
Death toll: 2,503

Italy soon has a higher death toll than 9/11. Scary.

[President Johnson]

I have to say I'm somewhat pleasantly surprised. Aside of panic-buying toilet paper when the news about coronavirus hit, the people, from what I've seen or been told, are largely behaving pretty responsibly in observing the restrictions.

On other news, there's been lot of discussion about whether a presidential election, originally expected to take place in May, should proceed or not.

Wow, is this a mentality thing in Poland? Even though Germany is not locked down ("only" nonessential stores are closed, restaurants must close at 6 pm), I see a lot of people outside. Others, including the press, confirm my impressions. People are waiting in lines in cafes and ice cream bars or do parties in the garden. Kids are playing outside, youngsters are hanging around in groups. And it's not just young folks: seniors are walking in the streets and don't seem concerned while shopping in the supermarket. Meanwhile, politicians and scientists are all over the place and issue warnings people should pratice social distancing. Experts are now openly warning a lockdown could be imposed if this behavior doesn't change.

I don't know, maybe we as a society are just egoistic enough to accept that the virus will spread and about 1% of infected people will die as the "price" for normalcy.

[President Johnson]

Be curious to know how respected the full lockdowns i.e. how many people are being fined. It seems our best hope of getting a lid on this is going to be effective treatments and ultimately a vaccine.

Christian Drosten, one of Germany's top virologists (very smart guy), who is doing a daily radio podcast, is saying the same now.

What I have privately talked about with my boss is the only other solution, at least in theory, could be to isolate folks over 60 and chronically ill as much as possible, while the younger and healthy population does business as usual. The huge majority of them just develops a cold that goes away after one or two weeks (if there are symptoms at all). Experts now agree that you're immune after covid-19 disease. Then we would quickly move to mass immunity.


Edit: Germany has jumped to 12,000 cases.

[President Johnson]

Public conversation in Germany has changed over the last 24 hours as we near 15,000 cases (but still less than 50 deaths). Some state governments are now openly considering public lockdowns similar to France, Italy and Spain. Reason is because too many people don't pay enough attention to calls for social distancing and avoid gatherings. I read local press reports that police has to dissolve several "corona parties" by young folks. On Sunday, there is a meeting with federal government officials, including Merkel, to discuss further measures. Merkel has so far been reluctant about that, but it may be a last ressort if infections continue to increase by this much (current speed is over 1,000 a day).

Two counties in Bavaria, that are considered hotspots, have already imposed a public lockdown. Markus Söder, Bavarian minister-president, is seriously considering a statewide lockdown. He issued a clear warning today if people don't change behavior.

[President Johnson]

Italy report, 5 p.m. today
deaths 3,405, sicks cumulative 41,035, recoveries 4,440, tests 182,777
fatality rate 8,3%

I heard the report a couple of hours ago. Forza

I'd bet a ton of money the real number of infected people in Italy is far higher than 100,000. Probably even over 200,000.

[President Johnson]

Italy report 5 p.m. today
deaths 4,032, sicks cumulative 47,021, recoveries 5,129, tests 206,886
fatality rate 8,6%
mortality rate (with a population of 60,317k) 67 per million
 

Jesus Christ... German media reports this is 620 more deaths in 24 hours. I'm feeling so sorry for my Italian friends.

[President Johnson]

Update from Germany: A number of state governments have restricted public gatherings. Restaurants are shut down entirely, only drive-ins and to go are still allowed. No more than 3-5 people are allowed to stay in public space (excluding families with kids).

Federal government will determine upon a national lockdown this weekend. Officials say the decision depends on behavior this weekend. I'm hopeful we can avoid a mandatory lockdown because unlike today and yesterday, there is no sunshine expected for the next few days. It's supposed to rain tomorrow.

[President Johnson]

Bavaria reports nine deaths at once this evening. All of them in a retirement home facility and all deceased persons were over 80 years old with severe pre-existing diseases. A number of personell have also been infected and are in home quarantine now.

[President Johnson]

It won't kill many people (certainly those of non-pensionable age) on its own, but can cause serious long term effects in previously healthy individuals including permanent lung damage.

Another reason why trying to control it ASAP is the best policy.

I haven't read anything that covid-19 causes long term health damage among recovered patients. In mild cases, lungs aren't even affected by the disease since the virus primarily replicates in the throat.

[President Johnson]

German state of Baden-Württemberg is now actively looking for capabilities to take French patients into our hospitals. French Alsace is severely affected by coronavirus and their hospitals are on the brink of collapse.

https://twitter.com/NorbertElekes/status/1241412207516233734

The daily Italian numbers are a gut punch everyday. This is legit f-cking nightmarish.

This is a tragedy I don't even find any words for. What's the actual number of infected people in Italy? A million? I wouldn't be shocked if this was the case. The virus has probably spread since mid-January.

[President Johnson]

Italian smokers are less of german, 24% vs 30%
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/smoking-rates-by-country/

I've not found number of tests did in Germany, in Italy are 233K, i've some doubt that german number is of different magnitude (also taking in the count the 35+% more population of Germany)

If I remember correctly there is no hard number of tests conducted in Germany available. But RKI said yesterday more than 100,000 are being conducted a week now. It should be noted that Germany has a unique infrastructure of (decentralized) laboratories. Experts think current capability of tests can be further increased by 30-40% within a few days.

[President Johnson]

Update: Germany will not issue a complete lockdown similar to Italy or Spain, but Chancellor Merkel and heads of state government have agreed to impose a so-called "contact ban". That means no more than two people are allowed to gather in public space, excluding families who live in the same household.

I think that's actually a good solution. Scientists in recent days warned a total lockdown would cause other problems. They argued people should be allowed to get out and breathe fresh air. I'm glad this is still possible. We were compelled to stay home the whole Saturday because of heavy rain. Today I feel much better after a two hour walk in the sunshine.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Angela Merkel puts herself into self-quarantine for a week after having contact with an infected doctor. Her press secretary stated she will be be tested more than once over the next few days.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Angela Merkel puts herself into self-quarantine for a week after having contact with an infected doctor. Her press secretary stated she will be be tested more than once over the next few days.

First test has been negative. However, Angela Merkel will stay in her private Berlin home for a few more days according to government officials. She is working though, as she did preside over today's cabinet meeting via videoconference.

Hopefully the next tests stay negative. Save our Mutti!

[President Johnson]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

In 3-4 weeks, govts all over the world will have to reassess the situation. Sooner or later, restrictions must be lifted for the sake of the economy alone. Not to mention other problems in society that come from permanent lockdowns. Otherwise, there will be bankruptcies en masse and skyrocketing unemployment. I still have some hope by looking at South Korea as some sort of model, but we should be prepared for the worst. I'm afraid the numbers of infected people will start climbing again once we return the normalcy. This is probably the worst societal crisis of our lifetimes that causes an unimaginable moral dilemma. I'm afraid in a few weeks we as a society and the politicians will have to decide whether continue to go down an economic super-cliff with disastrous consequences, worse than the 2009 recession, or we try to isolate only seniors and chronically ill and try to get some mass immunity among healthy people under the age of ~60-65.

The major problem as we speak is a complete lack of immunity across the board against this new virus. And there are just 2 ways to achieve that mass immunity: Vaccine or recovered people. Since vaccine won't be available for at least 9 months (maybe 12-14 months, and the vulnerable people need to be "locked up" for that amount of time), we might actually to go with the latter. Not because we like it, but because the alternative is so horrendous.

That's what I've been saying for some days now and discussed with a number of people in private. All the lockdowns achieve is delaying the problem for a few weeks. Then we will face the same bad choice again: Keep everything shut down and basically ruin the economy, or try to shield the most vulnerable and let it run through for herd immunity. Neither is a particular good thing, but the long-term impact of an economic collapse and increased depression/mental problems could be even greater.

[President Johnson]

So at which point will the human (not just the economic toll) of the lockdown become too much to bear? I mean there are all kinds of repercussions for mental health issues that 20-30% unemployment brings with it. It is rather worrying that there are so few voices that question the approach that has been chosen.

In 3-4 weeks, govts all over the world will have to reassess the situation. Sooner or later, restrictions must be lifted for the sake of the economy alone. Not to mention other problems in society that come from permanent lockdowns. Otherwise, there will be bankruptcies en masse and skyrocketing unemployment. I still have some hope by looking at South Korea as some sort of model, but we should be prepared for the worst. I'm afraid the numbers of infected people will start climbing again once we return the normalcy. This is probably the worst societal crisis of our lifetimes that causes an unimaginable moral dilemma. I'm afraid in a few weeks we as a society and the politicians will have to decide whether continue to go down an economic super-cliff with disastrous consequences, worse than the 2009 recession, or we try to isolate only seniors and chronically ill and try to get some mass immunity among healthy people under the age of ~60-65.

The major problem as we speak is a complete lack of immunity across the board against this new virus. And there are just 2 ways to achieve that mass immunity: Vaccine or recovered people. Since vaccine won't be available for at least 9 months (maybe 12-14 months, and the vulnerable people need to be "locked up" for that amount of time), we might actually to go with the latter. Not because we like it, but because the alternative is so horrendous.

That's what I've been saying for some days now and discussed with a number of people in private. All the lockdowns achieve is delaying the problem for a few weeks. Then we will face the same bad choice again: Keep everything shut down and basically ruin the economy, or try to shield the most vulnerable and let it run through for herd immunity. Neither is a particular good thing, but the long-term impact of an economic collapse and increased depression/mental problems could be even greater.

I think it can't be underestimated that the part that I bolded is a very good thing. Even a few weeks is a few more ventilators, a few more abilities to test different drugs before it gets bad for everyone, a few more ways that we improvise masks, a few more opportunities to motivate out-of-work folks who give back some way or another, a few more weeks of determining policies and seeing what red tape we can cut and guessing and trying all sorts of different improvisations that buy us more lives back. I generally agree that it's "just buying time", but in this case, time is a very, very good thing to have more of.

I'm absolutely in favor to keep the restrictions throughout April if necessary. Maybe I'm wrong and the virus can be contained in one fashion or the other. All I'm saying is that a lockdown is not sustainable for a longer period of time. For social and especially economic reasons. What governments should do now is gather a number of experts with different backgrounds (doctors, virologists, economists, union representatives, law enforcement etc.) and develop a strategy beyond the lockdown period.

[President Johnson]

News from Germany: The Bundestag today voted for 156 billion € bailout and stimulus package across all party lines. Especially smaller and medium sized businesses can receive immediate cash to avoid bankruptcies. Already last week, short-time working benefits were extended. That basically allows companies to reduce work hours in case there is less workload. The government then pays 60% of the subsequent (net) paycut (67% for parents) directly to employees.

Furthermore, out of over 30,000 ongoing infections, about 1,000 of them are in critical condition, a total of 4,000 are hospitalized at this point. According to RKI daily briefing, over 5,000 have recovered. Experts estimate Germany will have 70,000 by the end of this week and that unreported number could be ten times higher (700,000). It's still remarkable we have about 150 deaths at this point, while Italy loses 600+ a day.

[President Johnson]

Germany has hit 50,000 cases now. Still remarkable we have just over 300 deaths. Italy is a tragedy beyond any words.

[President Johnson]

Germany has hit 50,000 cases now. Still remarkable we have just over 300 deaths. Italy is a tragedy beyond any words.

Why is the German welfare state succeeding, while the Italian is one not?

There are a number of factors that explain the contrast between Italy and Germany:

- Germany has more intensive care hospitals beds than Italy (see the graph posted by Tender & Old Europe). The fewer beds available, the higher the death rate.

- The average age of infected people in Italy is higher than in Germany. That means, more people are likely to die from covid19.

- Italy has a different social culture. In Southern Europe, family bounds are closer than in Middle/Northern Europe. It's quite common to hang around the family practically every day in these countries (what obviously results in more infections). I know the contrast in social culture first hand with regard to my German and Greek families.

- Germany has higher testing capabilities due to a unique and decentralized system of laboratories. As a result, we find more infected people compared to Italy. I'm sure the real number of infections in Italy is much higher than reported. That's also the case in Germany, but by a much smaller factor. Germany was lucky in a sense we had the first infections on the radar very early. Meanwhile, experts believe the virus has spread undiscovered in Italy since the middle of January or so. That's a huge difference.

[President Johnson]

- Germany has higher testing capabilities due to a unique and decentralized system of laboratories. As a result, we find more infected people compared to Italy. I'm sure the real number of infections in Italy is much higher than reported. That's also the case in Germany, but by a much smaller factor. Germany was lucky in a sense we had the first infections on the radar very early. Meanwhile, experts believe the virus has spread undiscovered in Italy since the middle of January or so. That's a huge difference.

at the 26th march, i've not more recent data for Germany, the Germany did 5,812 tests per million and Italy 5,986 so practically the same

Ok, then this changed. I had older reports claiming Germany is first in testing. The deciding factor, however, is still the spreading for a longer time (since January, most likely) and social culture that led to more infections.

[President Johnson]

Italy down to 5'200 cases today. Hope...

But still over 800 deaths in the last 24 hours

[President Johnson]

Update, some good news: Third test of Angela Merkel has been negative. She's in self-quarantine for some days now, but working.