International COVID-19 Megathread

[President Johnson]

Imagine Russia actually invented the vaccine.... However, I not just think this is suspicious, in all likelyhood there will be more than just one vaccine once we get this thing under control. Probably a handful of vaccines, each for different groups.

With regard to Russia, they haven't been very transparent over recent months, as usual. The international community of scientists and researchers lack sufficient data from Moscow to draw serious conclusions, especially with this vaccine being developed and released so quickly. Scientists in Germany and all over the European Union say the sample of Russian patients tested is way too small at this point. There is also no hard data on long term effects since Covid19 hasn't been around for quite some time. It feels endless, but it's not from a medical standpoint.

[President Johnson]

Like in previous days, Germany again has over 1,000 new infections within 24 hours. We're back at late May levels at this point. Probably travelers make up the lion's share here. Data from Northrhine Westphalia show that a quarter of newly infected people recently traveled abroad for vacation.

[President Johnson]

Another day, another 1,400+ cases. It's certainly going into the wrong direction here. I have a sense people are getting more and more careless, combined with folks coming back from vacation. Yesterday alone, there were over 1,000 violations of mask mandates in public transportation.

Also today, the German federal government has declared Spain as high risk territory, only the Canary Islands were exempted. Previously, just five regions of Spain were labeled as high risk. This is really bad for the tourism industry of the Baleares, which are very popular among Germans.

[President Johnson]

WHO reports more than 294,000 new infections worldwide in the last 24 hours. That's the most ever recorded on a single day.

[President Johnson]

Germany reporting 1,707 new cases in the past 24 hours. The highest number since early April. According to the RKI, nearly 40% of them were infected on foreign soil, coming back from vacation. This is truly a concerning trend we see here. Maybe it slows down again once the main vacation season is over in early/mid September. But falling temperatures may cancel that effect out again.

[President Johnson]

And finally the mark of 2,000 new infections per day is broken in Germany. A lot seems to be caused by tourists coming back home and a number private events. I think we need to restrict family gatherings again in order to turn this most late trend.

[President Johnson]

Germany likely to end mandatory Covid tests for tourists heading back home from high-risk areas. The reason is definitely ridiculous: Not enough testing capabilities. Currently, there are about 870,000 tests conducted on a daily basis.

[President Johnson]

Situation in Europe continues to get worse. France reporting over 6,000 cases in the past 24 hours. Germany again has hit 1,500. Not good.

[President Johnson]

Demonstrations in Berlin continue to a degree, but I'm glad the police has stepped in. The court should never have ruled to allow the demonstration in the first place given in what kind of situation we find ourselves in. Many of the protesters are AfD-hacks and other deluded folks anyway. The most hilarious thing is these people complaining about "dictatorship" now. They have no clue what a dictatorship is actually like.

[President Johnson]

Which suggests that the virus might have mutated and became less deadly. Or that younger people are now affected. Or better treatment.

Quite possibly, all those things.

Definitely. Despite experiencing 1,000 to 2,000 new infections a day for a couple of weeks now, Germany has a very low number of patients in intensive care. Back in June and July, we had less than 500 new infections in 24 hours.

Becoming less deadly actually makes somewhat sense for a virus. Its primary goal is to spread as wide as possible. That can't be done if too much patients are dying.

[President Johnson]

Germany reporting 2,200 infections in the past 24 hours. That's the biggest number since April. However, fatalities are staying relatively stable for several weeks new.

After some back and forth, the National soccer league is set to resume, but without a live audience. There were discussions about having 20% of seats in a stadium filled, but was ultimately decided against.

[President Johnson]

So, we're expected to hit the mark of 1 million deaths very soon? Good lord...

I wonder where that puts it in the global league table of death causes this year.

I guess not all too high. Germany alone has between 800k and 900k deaths a year, and over 30% are caused by Cardiovascular disease. According to Wikipedia, this causes about 18 million deaths a year.

Aside from that, we don't know whether all Covid related deaths are actually caused by the virus itsself. Some might not. If I'm not mistaken, everyone dying with SARS II is considered a Covid death (at least here). That being said, every single one death is already one too much.

[President Johnson]

There really isn't much evidence masks *outside* make much of a difference at all.

Yes, I think this is more symbolic, though it may help somewhat in more crowded space (though crwods should generally be avoided).

Still, most infections take place in private gatherings and not in public such as transportation. At least data from Germany is indicating that.

[President Johnson]

Seems like around 2,000 new infections per day is the new normal in Germany. However, Merkel warned that it could be ten times as high in a month or two if people neglect mask wearing and social distancing.

Federal and state governments today agreed to limit private gatherings and celebrations to 50 people after such repeatedly turned out to be superspreading events. The city of Hamm as an example saw a drastic increase in cases last month as a result of a single wedding with over 200 people and at least one attendee was infected. This event might have legal consequences after all.

Furthermore, there's now going to be a penalty of 50€ for restaurant visitors who provide false personal data. Apparently, as many as half of contact data is incorrect with folks deliberately giving false names, making contact tracking to stop infection chains next to impossible. However, I'm not sure how they want to find people providing false names unless restaurant employees check passports or driver licenses.

[President Johnson]

Germany has now reached 300,000 infections in total. About 27,000 are currently infected, while over 263,000 have recovered. 9,534 deaths so far.

[President Johnson]

Some good news on the search for a vaccine: The European Medicines Agency has given green light for the final approval process of a vaccine candidate developed by the German company Biontech in cooperation with Pfizer. Their vaccine candidate "BNT162b2" has successfully gone through all three phases of study.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/06/2104060/0/en/BioNTech-and-Pfizer-Initiate-Rolling-Submission-to-European-Medicines-Agency-for-SARS-CoV-2-Vaccine-Candidate-BNT162b2.html

[President Johnson]

How long would final approval take?

The German Paul-Ehrlich-Institute said early 2021 was possible for the final stamp of approval. There's also a Swedish vaccine candidate in the same phase as the one mentioned above right now, so that's definitely promising. Getting enough people vaccinated is a different story, though. I think Covid will be the dominating news through 2021 as well, even if an effective vaccine is approved in the first quarter next year. In the end, we'll probably end up with more than just one vaccine and which one you get depends on individual circumstances like age, pre-existing conditions or even gender.

[President Johnson]

Over 4,000 infections yesterday. We're certainly heading into the wrong direction. One of our neighboring counties is now what's called a "high risk area", where you have more than 50 new infections per 100k people in one week. Our county is still around 21.

[President Johnson]

Over 4,000 infections yesterday. We're certainly heading into the wrong direction. One of our neighboring counties is now what's called a "high risk area", where you have more than 50 new infections per 100k people in one week. Our county is still around 21.

Another day, another 4,500 new infections. Seems like this wasn't an outlier. Especially urban areas turn more and more into hotspots. Today, Merkel had a call with mayors of the largest cities to discuss a number of measures. Looks like private gatherings will be further restricted to 50 or 25 people and an alcohol ban in bars and restaurant late in the evening.

[President Johnson]

Over 5,000 new infections in Germany in the last 24 hours now. That's up a thousand from the previous days and more than twice as much as a week ago. Things are certainly heading into the wrong direction. Hospitalizations are also up, but not to a concerning level yet.

Despite some restrictions announced today, such as a ban for alcohol outside private facilities in hotspot areas, I think they don't go far enough in some areas. It's now well known private gatherings and celebrations are mainly responsible for the climbing numbers. I think private gatherings over 25 people should be restricted nationwide. Actually I'm kinda mad at these people being so ignorant and doing birthday parties or marriages with something like 100 people. We have entire counties that became a hotspot due to one single event.

Situation over there in France also seems to be pretty bad at this point.

[President Johnson]

Germany is setting all time record in daily new cases: 6,638 reported this morning. Private gatherings and parties are largely driving these numbers up, which is why further restrictions for high-risk areas have been issued (a county is considered high risk if more than 50 infections per 100,000 in seven days occur). No more than ten people from two households are allowed in said counties. Almost all larger cities above 500,000 are affected. Our county, a Stuttgart suburb, is close to exceeding the critical 50 as well (it was 47 last time I checked).

[President Johnson]

1.800 new cases here yesterday.

In US terms, that would be +67.000 cases.

7 deaths were recorded, or in US terms, ca. 250.

Except for fatalities, these numbers are similar to the US. Is it known what's driving up these numbers? Is it parties and private events? I would assume so, since there is overall not much evidence public transportation or supermarkets are places of infection.

[President Johnson]

1.800 new cases here yesterday.

In US terms, that would be +67.000 cases.

7 deaths were recorded, or in US terms, ca. 250.

Except for fatalities, these numbers are similar to the US. Is it known what's driving up these numbers? Is it parties and private events? I would assume so, since there is overall not much evidence public transportation or supermarkets are places of infection.

In England it's schools and workplaces.

And universities, much more than schools. (Unless you were using schools in the sense that our American friends would understand.)

Interesting; studies in Germany found that schools hardly contribute to the most recent spike in cases. Here it's mainly young people going out for parties or private events like family fests or weddings. The city of Hamm had a very low number in cases until few weeks ago and then one wedding with 200 people became a superspreader event and caused that many infections that public life had to be restricted. The couple now faces legal issues.

[President Johnson]

While numbers in Germany are on the rise German Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU) is now infected himself and going into quarantine.

Already yesterday, Berchtesgadener Land, a South-Eastern Bavarian county bordering Austria that is known for beautiful alpine landscape as well as the lake Königsee, went into a regional shutdown. People are only permitted to leave their homes for work, the supermarket and physical activities outside; latter only with members of their own household or alone. All non-essential businesses were closed, tourists needed to leave early. Their infection rate stands at a record of 262 per 100,000 in the past seven days. Counties with more than 50 infections per 100,000 in seven days are considered high-risk areas. There were just a handful in September, now they're all over the place. My home county stands at 49.6 at this point, dropped from 54.7 on Monday.

The Czech Republic is now undergoing a nationwide lockdown after more than 11,000 new infections within a single day were reported.

[President Johnson]

So, Germany has once again outdone itsself: Over 11,000 new cases in the last 24 hours. A daily record. On average, we have more than 50 infections within seven days per 100,000 nationwide.

My wife and I will be reducing our personal contacts to the closest family members, who themselves have done the same. Probably through the whole winter.