International COVID-19 Megathread

[President Johnson]

Now in the UK they're talking about a 6 month lockdown...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52084517

Lmao, that's practically impossible.

Today I read an interview on a major German newsite in which an expert said the same thing I do for a while: The lockdowns only postphone the larger problem. Even if numbers go down as a result, as soon as everything is reopened, it starts all over again. Our strategy should merely be to buy some time for figuring out how we can pass the next nine to twelve months before a vaccine is available and that will stop the pandemic through enough immunity.

[President Johnson]

Germany has extended the conact ban instated at the beginning of last week to April 19. This has been agreed on after a telephone conference between Angela Merkel and the minister-presidents of the states.

That means the current lockdown will go over the Easter weekend. Probably we won't be able to visit parents (even though it's not prohibited to meet in private). Schools are scheduled to open on April 20, but it's likely this deadline will be extended as well. It really sucks.

[President Johnson]

Worldwide number of infections as crossed one million now (deaths and receovered included).

[President Johnson]

Hopefully BoJo recovers soon.

While Austria wants to start listing first restrictions, Merkel today said there is no such timetable for Germany.

[President Johnson]

Germany:
106,297 total infections
1,895 deaths
31,000+ recovered


I just found out that my county ranks #11 in Germany (out of 294) in total infections. It stood at 1,028 this morning (population is close to 400,000). Two bordering counties are even in the top 10 nationwide.

[President Johnson]

Appears that the number of infected people in Germany declines. Some days ago it stood at 69,000, now it's at 65,000. Over 46,000 have recovered (2,349 deaths).

[President Johnson]

Ursula von der Leyen now urging Germans not yet book vacation for the summer months. I think this is dangerous. Southern European countries like Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Croatia heavily depend on the tourism industry. These countries, are have been struggling already, can't afford to sit one summer out. It's just not possible by any means. With all due respect, we need to be careful that the "medicine" isn't more deadly than the virus itsself.

[President Johnson]

Sweden had their first death on 11 March. Now they have 1,033 deaths.

In Finland we had our first death on 20 March. Now there are 64 deaths.

What's the average age of infected people? Obviously this is a huge deal. Germany has a low death toll by comparisan because the median age of patients is about 48. It's much higher in Italy.

[President Johnson]

Update from Germany: Merkel and heads of the states have agreed to extend the contact ban to May 4. However, stores under 800 square meters will be reopened on April 20 (next Monday). Book stores and car dealers will be opened as well. Barber shops will reopen on May 4 under "increased hygiene standards".

Face masks in public are not required per se, but recommended for public transportation. Furthermore, schools will be reopened in part, starting with higher classes.

Big events such as concerts are banned until August 31 so far.

[President Johnson]

Projections coming out of Africa are not looking very encouraging:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/coronavirus-updates-china-transparency-uk-vaccine-taskforce/12160440#Africa

".without mitigation etc etc....the study calculated over 1.2 billion Africans would be infected and 3.3 million would die this year. Africa has a total population of around 1.3 billion."

Africa is extremely under-prepared for this.

The main issue is lack of reporting. You are just not going to see any meaningful numbers like that generated by first world medical infrastructure.

Yeah, Africa is disaster in the making. The only silver lining for the continent might be that their population is extremely young on average, which sort of compensate the lack of medical ressources. However, even then the total number of deaths will be pretty high.

[President Johnson]

Good news for Germans:

They will probably be able to vacation in Austria during the summer.

We will very likely open the borders for Germany only (+maybe Eastern Europeans) and keep the travel ban in place for all other Europeans.

https://orf.at/stories/3162401

I'm not that much of a mountain guy, so the only place worth going to for me is probably Vienna and I already have been there in 2017. I'm strongly considering a vacation in Germany this year... that is as soon as you're allowed to go someplace again (well, with the exception of the states of Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern you're still technically allowed to go someplace, it's just that you're not allowed to book a hotel/pension/etc. there).

I still can't believe there won't be single German (or Austrian, Dutch, Belgian or whatever) tourist in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece this entire summer. Southern European countries are already economically struggling and the tourism industry is absolutely vital for them. There is much that depends on it far beyond tourism companies and airlines, it's thousands of small family owned stores, hotels, campsites, restaurants, nightclubs, car rental, local transportation, real estate and so on. Southern European countries just can't sit this year out with zero foreigners coming in.

We've not booked vacation yet, but I hope we can still go to Greece in the summer or early fall for a few days on the beach. Austria is always worth a week of vacation or a weekend trip, but I generally prefer the Mediterranean Sea over mountains or the German coast.

[President Johnson]

It hasn't been confirmed yet, but all signs are pointing into the direction the Munich Oktoberfest, scheduled from late September into October, will be cancelled this fall.

[President Johnson]

It hasn't been confirmed yet, but all signs are pointing into the direction the Munich Oktoberfest, scheduled from late September into October, will be cancelled this fall.

Now it's official: Oktoberfest is cancelled!

Furthermore, more German states require wearing masks in public transportation and stores, including my state of Baden-Württemberg. The requirement was announced today and become effective next Monday. Cloths and scarves are accepted as well. Hope I can get one for a price that isn't totally absurd. Was in a store today, three pieces were 14€, which is kinda crazy considering these very simple masks have production costs of a few cents. For going to the supermarket once or twice a week, I'll take my scarf.

[President Johnson]

Germany has approved the first clinical test for a vaccine. They are scheduled to begin very soon, starting with 200 people. First results are expected within a few months, though it's unlikely the vaccine will be available before the beginning of next year.

Germany to start first coronavirus vaccine trial

With more than 2.5 million people now infected worldwide in the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany has authorized the first clinical trial of a coronavirus vaccine. The first tests on humans will begin before the end of April.

German Health Minister Jens Spahn has announced the first clinical trials of a coronavirus vaccine. The Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI), the regulatory authority which helps develop and authorizes vaccines in Germany, has given the go-ahead for the first clinical trial of BNT162b1, a vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

[...]

The first medical tests of BNT162b1 will involve 200 healthy volunteers between the ages of 18 and 55. The aim is to determine the immune response and whether the vaccine causes any unwanted side effects.

[...]

Cichutek said testing would be completed by June, at the earliest. After this stage is complete, the PEI will determine if the vaccine can progress to further trial stages. Cichutek warned, however, that an approved vaccine was unlikely to be ready for the general public in 2020.

[...]

Full article on Deutsche Welle (in English)

[President Johnson]

Germany has dropped to just above 35,000 active cases. I remember when we had nearly 70,000 a few weeks ago.

Total cases: 159, 137
Deaths: 6,174
Recovered: 117,400
Ongoing: 35,563

From yesterday on, all 16 states require people to wear masks in stores and public transportation. I was at the supermarket today; it feels pretty uncomfortable because my glasses steams up with each breath and slip down all the time. Next time, I just leave my glasses in the car.

[President Johnson]

Germany:

Total cases: 164,077
Deaths: 6,736
Recovered: ~129,000
Ongoing: 28,341

Number of active cases again dropped by several thousands within a few days.

[President Johnson]

Germany has just 945 new cases since yesterday. Significant drop.

[President Johnson]

Things are definitely slowing down ...

Only 20-40 more cases on a daily basis and just 2 deaths yesterday.

Deaths once were in the 15-30 range per day.

Same here. 793 new cases reported from yesterday. Another drop of over 100. Last week, we had mostly over 2,000 additional cases a day. The number of active cases has dropped more than half within two weeks (from 70,000+ to below 30,000).

[President Johnson]

Today an interesting study from Germany was published: The county of Heinsberg, at the border to the Netherlands, was the first major hotspot in February after an infected couple visited a carneval party. Researchers from Bonn tested almost 1,000 people from one town with and without symptoms and found that 15% had antibodies or are still infected. The death rate was 0.37%. If this were the actual death rate in Germany, the actual number of infections must be at 1.8 million, about ten times higher than reported.

Other experts think 1.8 million is way too high and emphasize the situation in this respective county was not representative for the whole country.

NY Post is yet the only source I could find in English: https://nypost.com/2020/05/04/german-coronavirus-cases-may-be-10-times-higher-than-official-figures/

[President Johnson]

"With the US, Germany & EU should pursue forceful decoupling from China. It would be expensive but not as expensive as the alternative. Corona recession presents a unique opportunity to correct the wrong path".

Mathias Döpfner, CEO of Axelspringer (largest Media Conglomerate in Europe) with the most radical statement so far within mainstream German centre-right circles.


Source: Welt am Sonntag + Abaca

The EU should expand relationship with the US once Trump is gone. President Biden will restore transatlantic relations and other Western countries. China with its totalitarian system and oppression is hardly an ally. That doesn't mean partnership is not possible, but the Europe, the US, Canada and Japan have much more to gain by standing together as one block against China's expansion.

If the West acts in concert, we have much greater power to pressure Beijing and hold them accountable. This is absolutely necessary, especially now that they have covered this pandemic up for all too long.

[President Johnson]

Germany has further lifted a number of restrictions after Merkel phoned with state leaders.

- Contact bans remain intact to June 5, but people from two households can now meet in public again. Masks are mandatory in stores and public transportation (no change).

- Kids should come back to school before summer vacation, but not all classes at once. The states will issue own rulings here.

- All stores will reopen, even those >800 square meters. Restaurants will start reopening from mid to late May onward (depending on the state), but with only half the number of guests. Some states already decided to reopen hotels for tourism by late May, but with half occupancy.

- World wide travel warning remains intact to June (this is not a travel ban, but it's pretty difficult to get somewhere anyway). Vacation in Germany is supposed to be possible this summer. The EU has not agreed on something yet, but Greece is pushing to reopen beaches and hotels by July with a limited number of people.

- The German soccer league is set to restart in the second half of May, but with no live audience.

- The ban to visit senior's homes will expire. I think this is a bad decision, considering a large number of deaths are in such facilities.

- Large events such as concerts remain prohibited to at least August 31.

- Interesting, but makes sense: There will be individual regional and specific lockdowns (state, county or municipality) in areas where more than 50 new infections per 100,000 occur within a single week. States and local authorities are required to work out detailled plans for such a scenario.


Numbers as of today:

Total cases: 167,372
Deaths: 6,993
Recovered: ~137,400
Ongoing: 22,979

[President Johnson]

11,000 new cases in Russia since yesterday. Looks like Russia and Brazil, whose "leader" is in total denial, are on track to become the next hotspots.

[President Johnson]

Meh, Germany's reproduction rate yesterday rose to 1.1. Hopefully this isn't a trend, because it means the numbers start rising again.

[President Johnson]

Germany's reproduction rate is back under 1, but Robert Koch Institute estimates it will stay around 1 for months to come. The number of ongoing cases has dropped to 18,000 (reported). I remember when it was over 70,000 some weeks ago. Over 147,000 patients have receovered, 7,700+ died.

[President Johnson]

Number of (official) active cases in Germany further goes down:

Infections confirmed: 174,284
Deaths: 7,868
Recovered: 150,300
Active cases: 16,116

The federal government this week also increased benefits for employees with reduced working time and passed a tax-free one-time bonus payment of 1000€ for healthcare workers.