International COVID-19 Megathread

[President Johnson]

3.300 new cases today.

In US-terms, more than 122.000

I think we need to close down the country again soon.

Wow, that's an insane number. We "only" had 11,000 again. Some chair of a doctor's association (don't remember his name" today suggested we should have another lockdown if 20,000 per day cases are reached. We're at a point where contact tracing gets pretty difficult.

[President Johnson]

I'm actually worried we already have to go into some form of a lockdown within the next weeks (not announced yet, but likely). I mean, it's just late October. The warmer season is at least four-five months away. We may get numbers down during a November lockdown, but what then? After Christmas, all over again?

I know it's hardly possible, but in theory the best solution would be worldwide total shutdown of two or three weeks. With all wages and prices frozen.

[President Johnson]

Yeah, lockdown in Germany set to begin on Monday and last throughout November. Bars, clubs, fitness centers, indoor swimming pools and theaters will have to close again. Schools remain open, restaurants can offer deliveries or pickups. No more than 10 people from two households are allowed to meet.

I think closing restaurants is a mistake. They're already under pressure and hardly drive up the numbers. I have been to restaurants numerous times this year, and all guests are actually playing by the rules.

[President Johnson]

You don't spend as long in a restaurant as in a bar and sometimes families or individuals will go there. Also, you sit a lot further apart.

Agreed. All indoor restaurants I have been to since spring also have empty tables in between and you're required to wear a mask once your leave your table. Personell is also wearing masks. Restaurants don't drive infections up. Now nightclubs and bars are a different story.

I'll most likely make a couple of orders at local restaurants or pick my meal up to support them, even though I enjoy cooking too. I'm working from home and can afford to do so, including extra tips.

[President Johnson]

But we can now be cautiously optimistic about a vaccine being available soon, after today's news.

Yeah, this vaccine, developed by German Biontech and Pfitzer in cooperation, could be a breakthrough.

[President Johnson]

Our lockdown 2.0 doesn't really work it seems.

10 days now and more than 9.000 new cases today, the highest on record.

Well, Germany has at least halted further growth beyond 20,000 new cases per day. But lockdown takes at least two weeks to show any drop new cases.

Another factor may be that schools are not closed (I assume same in Austria?). Studies have not given a clear picture how much schools drive Covid numbers. The closing of restaurants and certain other places like theaters was definitely a mistake since most of them have solid safety concepts in place.

[President Johnson]

Claims today of another highly effective vaccine in the works. Things looking up in that regard at least.

Yeah, and the Moderna one apparently has a 95% effective rate and seems to be better suited for distribution. The Pfizer-Biontec vaccine needs an extremely low temperate during transport.

However, vaccination will take a very long time, even in rich countries. I read that Germany could do roughly 60,000 people a day. That's not fast enough. They're currently planning on "vaccination centers" in stadiums etc.

[President Johnson]

Pfizer have claimed their anti-Covid vaccine is 95% effective.

No offense here at all, but many US media don't mention the Pfizer vaccine was actually developed in Germany, for the most part. This vaccine is a joint project between Pfizer and Biontech, a Mainz based firm.

[President Johnson]

Seems like the German "lockdown light" isn't as effective as it's supposed to be. We still have about 20,000 infections per day. The growth was halted, but numbers aren't going down either. It's very likely the lockdown will be extended into December.

That being said, I hope restaurants can reopen as soon as possible. We're ruining the whole industry here while most gastronomy had sufficient safety measures in place before the closings. Nightclubs must remain closed of course, but not restaurants.

Small supplement:

The German state of Baden-Württemberg (11 million inhabitants) will set up eight central Impfzentren as hubs for logistics, storage and distribution until December 15. This aligns well with 60 hubs for Germany (83 million inhabitants) as a whole.

For every urban or rural district (Kreis) one or two Kreisimpfzentren will be set up until January 15 and at least 750 vaccinations per day will occur there 7 days per week from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. Since there are 7 urban and 35 rural districts the total number of Impfzentren will be at least 42, probably ca. 60. Hence at least 31k vaccinations per day in Baden-Württemberg, probably ca. 50k per day. On the national scale this would mean ca. 400k vaccinations a day in Germany from January 15 on.

Edit: I just read that the central hubs will be set up for up to 1.500 vaccinations a day as a first step which would mean up to 90k vaccinations per day in Germany from December 15 on (assuming that there are no other limiting factors like missing vaccines etc.) From January 15 on the number of daily vaccinations can then be increased (to ca. 500k/day?) due to the local vaccination centers being available.

Yeah, it's great my state sets those Impfzentren up. I'd immediately take a vaccine, but likely won't be allowed to so as 29 year old without preexisting conditions (though my 64 year old aunt would give me her dose, if it was possible).

[President Johnson]

German "lookdown light" likely to be extended to December 20 later today. Daily cases are still at a high level, but have not gone up further since early November. However, yesterday were over 400 deaths reported. A new high. The current death toll is at 18,000.

It's still discussed whether to ban fireworks on New Year's Eve this year to provide relief in hospitals. The Netherlands issued a fireworks ban for New Year's Eve earlier this month.

[President Johnson]

Moderna today applied for final emergency vaccine approval at the responsible EU agency. It's expected the final stamp of approval will be given in a very short period of time. Vaccination here in Germany is expected to begin in January at latest, perhaps even in early December.

The newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung estimates that vaccination will reach a level for herd immunity at the end of 2021, give or take a few months. Meanwhile, more German states are setting up concrete plans for vaccinations to get as many people through as fast as possible. My state of Baden-Württemberg estimates they could do about a million per month. With a population of just over 11 million, late 2021 is a realistic goal.

[President Johnson]

News just broke the German partial lockdown will be extended to January 10, though there over Christmas some rules aren't as strict. Saxony and the city of Nuremberg are going to a full lockdown due skyrocketing infections in recent weeks. People only permitted to leave their homes for work and essential errands (supermarket, doctor etc.).

Yesterday set a tragic new record with close to 500 deaths.

[President Johnson]

Italy reports new record in deaths: 993 people lost their life yesterday. Actually worse than in spring during the first wave.

Meanwhile, counties in my homestate of Baden-Württemberg with more than 200 new infections per week and 100k will impose a total lockdown from 9 p.m. to 5. p.m. That means people are not allowed to leave their homes during that time. That affects the cities Mannheim and Pforzheim, among others. My parents actually live near Pforzheim, but the measure only applies to the city itsself.

[President Johnson]

Although the fact that Covid has managed to do this despite, you know, lock downs, improved healthcare, better science and so on is indicative of... something... (but actually, one of those things is the increase in the number of people surviving into their 80s/90s compared to what used to be the case).

The worry is still what it is though - given how the modern economy works, given human settlement patterns and expansion into previously uninhabited areas and the ever increasing opportunities for these sorts of zoonotic events; how do we stop this happening again, and not just have to accept it becoming a once every 10 years or so type thing?

I wonder how Covid would have played out 20, 30 or 40 years ago? It's not just the medical standards compared to today, it's also technology in general. Today, we can have smart technological solutions for problems the pandemic is causing, like warning apps and so on. Thanks to the internet, a lot more data can be collected very fast and used around the world. People can work from home, which would not have been possible to the same extent even one or two decades ago.

I'm not sure we will have something like this each decade, but it's a warning sign there are limits to growth. Especially with human kind getting deeper and deeper into natural habitats. We see first hand what consequences this pandemic had despite developing a vaccine within one year, which is an enormous feat. What if that took much longer? Or the virus was more deadly than it is? The first SARS from 2003 had about 10% mortality. As bad as it is, it could be even worse. And it might be next time, if we don't learn our lessons. Whether it's 10, 20 or 40 years from now.

[President Johnson]

I wonder how Covid would have played out 20, 30 or 40 years ago?

In 1980? Probably just seen as a really bad flu season.

I think it would have been worse. With the flu, there is at least some immunity in the general population since there's a flu season every year. Although each annual virus differs to a degree, it still has a protective effect with people that were infected in the previous cycle. With Covid, there was no immunity among the entire world population whatsoever, which is why it spreads so easy and fast. Covid-19 is also about ten times more deadly than the flu.

While lockdowns would have been possible and even were imposed during the Spanish flu, the economic impact might have been greater since technology was not nearly as advanced as today. Let alone data exchange around the world, especially among scientists. The only positive I see is less mobility compared to the 2020s.

[President Johnson]

Thirteen days after the minister-presidents of the German states had agreed to allow social gatherings of people from more than two households over Christmas and New Year's Eve a push has begun to at least partially revoke that agreement again next week.

Who cares I wonder... last Saturday I happened to talk to someone who didn't know what the currently existing Corona restrictions look like and when I told her she asked me to define what exactly a "household" is with regards to these restrictions. That wasn't a particularly dumb person, because she also reads George Orwell and is in the process of learning the Chinese language, but at the same time she apparently considers the Corona regulations as way too abstract and also too far removed from her normal course of life. I consider that a somewhat representative anecdote. Only Corona nerds know the Corona rules.

My impression is that many of the proposed "tightened restrictions" (mask mandate outside, mulled wine ban, max. five people incl. max. one guest instead of max. five people from max. two households, etc.) have symbolic value at best and only a fool would expect them to make a decisive difference.

What seems to have had a bigger effect was the announcement of a prolongation (and slight "tightening") of restrictions on November 25. Since then the reproduction number has increased to slightly above 1. Although every "Corona nerd" knew that a prolongation had to be expected it seems that its announcement was the signal for some people to turn to epidemiological work-to-rule.

The Leopoldina, an official group of scientists advising the government, has proposed a serious lockdown after Christmas. This could actually make sense since schools will be closed anyways and many workplaces will run at reduced pace.

I agree. I think a full lockdown makes sense, especially for the time after Christmas. There isn't much going on in this period, anyway. As bad as it is, it's necessary now. Other countries have shown that brief and tough lockdowns are more effective than partial over many weeks.

I just hope there won't be a total stay at home order so that you can at least go out for a walk. I just need my daily exercise/walk.

[President Johnson]

589 deaths yesterday. A new tragic record.

While Saxony is actually imposing a full lockdown after skyrocketing numbers for weeks, it looks more and more likely we'll end up with a nationwide shutdown after Christmas, for at least two or three weeks.

[President Johnson]

First vaccinations took place in the UK this morning.

Interesting is that the second person who got it, after the 90 year old woman, was a guy named William Shakespeare.

[President Johnson]

Germany update: Almost 30,000 additional cases yesterday, 598 deaths. A new record.

Merkel will sit down with Minister-Presidents of the states this Sunday and likely announce a full lockdown, starting rather sooner than later and going into January. After Saxony already imposed a full lockdown due to skyrocketing numbers and hospitals increasingly under pressure, my homestate of Baden-Württemberg today announced a stay at home order, effective Saturday for four weeks. At night, from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. it's basically prohibited to get out the door other than for work and medical emergencies. In the meantime, it's only allowed to leave home for "valid reasons", such as going to shops and supermarkets (retail remains open), going to work and physical exercise (only with members of two households). The nightly stay at home order and contact bans will, in all likelyhood, be lifted over Christmas, with ten people allowed to gather.

While the so called "lockdown light" somewhat slowed the growth in new cases, it was largely a failure. The numbers are not close where they should be. Furthermore, they made a huge mistake by closing restaurants, which were not drivers of the pandemic.

[President Johnson]

As expected, Germany will go into full lockdown starting Wednesday. In other words, most retail stores will close except supermarkets, drug stores, gas stations, pharmacies, banks and the post office. Current expiration date is January 10, and it's yet unknown what happens after. Contact restrictions will be lifted to a degree over Christmas, but not on New Year's Eve.

[President Johnson]

There are reports that Emmanuel Macron is really not feeling well. Has severe symptoms, though he sent out a short video on Instagram today.

Worst day with new infections in Germany was yesterday, over 33,000 infections. We're approaching a constant level of high tripledigit deaths per day at this point. The lockdown will probably be extended beyond January 10.

[President Johnson]

New Corona mutation in the UK seems extremely problematic. If it is indeed up to 70pct more transmissible and increases R by about 0.4, has become the dominant strain so fast, and the infection rates from SE England during the Lockdown are an Indication, it is essentially infectious to the point that even harsh lockdown measures are not able to contain it. In that case only possibility would seem to vaccinate yourself out of it as fast as possible, or essentially abandoning containment entirely and just try to Isolate vulnerable.

European Mainland is scrambling to contain the mutation as much as possible. NL and Belgium have already closed Borders to UK, Germany likely to do the same, it seems possible much of Europe will follow quite fast. It has already been Identified in a few other countries (incl. NL), not yet in Germany, but considering the sheer amount of travel between SE England/London and Europe, even during the Pandemic, and the dominance this strain already has there, it would appear improbable that it isn't prevalent at at least a low level in much of Europe already. The Question is more likely how prevalent, and how long it will take until a situation like in the UK is reached.

Leading German virologist Christian Drosten, who is an expert on SARS and was always a trustworth source so far, urges not to panic here, though he admits current data is not sufficient. There is no evidence the vaccines are less effective with this mutation. There is also no evidence the mutated virus is more deadly. The opposite is actually more likely. Viruses usually intend to spread as fast and wide as possible, and from that perspective it just doesn't make sense to kill too many people.

Mutations are nothing unusual and happen all the time (that needs to be said as often as possible, because a lot of people think makes a virus more dangerous). While suspending travel with the UK makes sense, I would be surprised if this specific virus isn't already in Germany. There are reported cases in Italy, France and even Australia.

[President Johnson]

Biontech, Pfizer's German partner, has begun testing their vaccine with the virus mutation. They expressed confidence in its effectiveness. First results are expected in about two weeks.

Meanwhile, German virologist Drosten has sort of corrected his expressions from yesterday by saying the mutation is very likely to be more transferable after a British scientist published new data.

[President Johnson]

Germany now has a higher 7-day incidence than Austria, with Saxony hardest-hit.

Germany had ca. 25.000 new cases yesterday and ca. 1.000 deaths.

Austria was at ca. 1.800 new cases yesterday and 105 new deaths.

Divided by 9, the per capita deaths here are about the same as in Germany (used to be higher here already), while the case numbers are lower now than in Germany.

Both numbers are a total disaster. And I don't see any improvement, particulary with Christmas now on the way. We'll probably stay in a lockdown for the rest of January as well.

[President Johnson]

Another day, another 32.000 cases. And it's not even Christmas yet, so the worst is (likely) to come.

But to a degree, it's people's own fault because they don't reduce their in-person contacts by enough or don't care enough about keeping distance. Yesterday, I went to the supermarket and saw numerous children running through the store like it was a playground. Why can't parents just leave them at home or in the car? I don't get it.