International COVID-19 Megathread

[President Johnson]

Number of (official) active cases in Germany further goes down:

Infections confirmed: 174,284
Deaths: 7,868
Recovered: 150,300
Active cases: 16,116

The federal government this week also increased benefits for employees with reduced working time and passed a tax-free one-time bonus payment of 1000€ for healthcare workers.

Update, another drop:

Infections confirmed: 176,551
Deaths: 8,003
Recovered: 155,041
Active cases: 13,507

[President Johnson]

Number of (official) active cases in Germany further goes down:

Infections confirmed: 174,284
Deaths: 7,868
Recovered: 150,300
Active cases: 16,116

The federal government this week also increased benefits for employees with reduced working time and passed a tax-free one-time bonus payment of 1000€ for healthcare workers.

Update, another drop:

Infections confirmed: 176,551
Deaths: 8,003
Recovered: 155,041
Active cases: 13,507

Update, another drop:

Infections confirmed: 180,157
Deaths: 8,283
Recovered: 160,281
Active cases: 11,593

At this point, things are looking good, though there are some minor hotspots regionally. One hotspot had over 100 infections following a chutch visit; another one in a restaurant.

[President Johnson]

Update, another drop:

Infections confirmed: 180,157
Deaths: 8,283
Recovered: 160,281
Active cases: 11,593

At this point, things are looking good, though there are some minor hotspots regionally. One hotspot had over 100 infections following a chutch visit; another one in a restaurant.

Germany update: Active cases dropped below 10,000:

Infections confirmed: 183,125
Deaths: 8,527
Recovered: 164,887
Active cases: 9,711

[President Johnson]

Apparently no new deaths in Spain in the last 24 hours.

Update, another drop:

Infections confirmed: 180,157
Deaths: 8,283
Recovered: 160,281
Active cases: 11,593

At this point, things are looking good, though there are some minor hotspots regionally. One hotspot had over 100 infections following a chutch visit; another one in a restaurant.

Germany update: Active cases dropped below 10,000:

Infections confirmed: 183,125
Deaths: 8,527
Recovered: 164,887
Active cases: 9,711

Germany update:

Infections confirmed: 183,879
Deaths: 8,563
Recovered: 166,609
Active cases: 8,707

[President Johnson]

German federal government has passed a stimulus package well over 100 billion euros. The grand coalition, after long negotiations, has agreed upon the following:

- VAT Tax will be reduced from 19% to 16% until December 31 Food in restaurants has already been subject to a VAT reduction from 19% to 7% (excluding drinks).

- Families get a one time bonus of 300€ per kid. The bonus will be added to taxable income, though. Households with an anual income of over 90,000€ won't benefit from the measure.

- Social Democrats successfully blocked a bonus for cars that run with fossil energy. There will be some bonuses for purchasing an E-car.

- Deutsche Bahn (national railroad company, is partly owned by the federal government) gets a big financial aid. Local public transportation receives another 2.5 billion.

- Municipalities, who suffer from a loss in local taxes, receive financial aid as well. The sum will be splitted between federal and state governments. Unfortunately, Social Democrats couldn't get debt redemption by the federal government for cities that have already been in the red for a long time.

The measures are balanced in my opinion and will help to get the economy back on track. Still hurts me  we don't have balanced budget anymore. Hopefully we can return to that in a few years. At least fiscal discipline allowed the government to spend now, when it's urgently needed.

[President Johnson]

Apparently no new deaths in Spain in the last 24 hours.

Update, another drop:

Infections confirmed: 180,157
Deaths: 8,283
Recovered: 160,281
Active cases: 11,593

At this point, things are looking good, though there are some minor hotspots regionally. One hotspot had over 100 infections following a chutch visit; another one in a restaurant.

Germany update: Active cases dropped below 10,000:

Infections confirmed: 183,125
Deaths: 8,527
Recovered: 164,887
Active cases: 9,711

Germany update:

Infections confirmed: 183,879
Deaths: 8,563
Recovered: 166,609
Active cases: 8,707

Germany update:

Infections confirmed: 186,109
Deaths: 8,695
Recovered: 169,556
Active cases: 7,858

[President Johnson]

Hungary has ended border controls on all its Schengen borders. Slovenia is also allowing Hungarians, Austrians and Slovenes to cross into the country at any point they like; other citizens will still need to use border crossings for the time being.

Germans have already been allowed to get in last week.

Spain now also moving in this direction. This sparked some controversy German tourists may get in for vacation before Spaniards themselves can vacate in their own country.

[President Johnson]

Germany's Contact Tracing App starts today, officially called the "Corona-Warn-App".

I am not particularly optimistic about it though. First, what we have seen in other Countries that have rolled them out is not encouraging. Australia or France for instance (in the former case there is only literally one known case of it helping), and even in a Country like Singapore where the population might be expected to have a greater sense of social responsibility to use the App (and Government expected to be more competent) it has been a total failure. Add to that the fact that Germans are unmatched globally in our absolute paranoia about anything re personal data and you have zero chance of something like this working imo. It was partly the reason why Germany went for the decentralized model (meaning personal data is not stored on some central government server, as opposed to most others, but on the phones themselves) but just anecdotally I really doubt that that is a distinction most people here understand or make. You try and sell them anything even resembling something that might be understood as a location tracker; no chance.

The only Contact Tracing App that to my knowledge has worked in any meaningful way is the Alipay Health Code system in China. But ultimately that is a concept that is extremely invasive and would be unacceptable in any western society. Having a green health code (no contact to known cases) must be proven for essentially any movements in public places, Shops, malls, trains etc. and has expanded the authorities digital control over citizens even further than the already dystopian levels. That is a price most Chinese are willing to pay no questions asked to eradicate Covid-19 it seems, there has been little dissent against it.

Ultimately if the App fails, it won't be a very tragic thing. Germany's conventional Contact Tracing system is working relatively well, and seems to be able to keep up with most symptomatic cases. And if you are not trying to go for complete elimination, as imo the German Health Authorities are not, then that will do the job perfectly well.

The most ridiculous thing about this, aside from the months long delay, is that it's not compatible with any IPhone prior to 7. I still have IPhone 5, bought in 2014 and working just fine, but couldn't use the app if I wanted to. I wasn't sure whether to download or not, but the question has answered itsself now.

[President Johnson]

Laschet is now blaming the "Romanians and Bulgarians who brought the Virus with them" for the outbreak and says it has nothing to do with him reopening faster than other states.

What an Idiot. His approval is already sliding badly, and he is showing that his political Instincts are closer to Trump or Boris than Merkel. Her supporters are (by and large) supporting him in the CDU leadership race because of Ideological reasons, but personality wise Söder (and most of the other state premiers) have shown themselves in this Crisis to have much more of her humility and statesmanship that Laschet desperately lacks.

I used to like him, but he has acted like fool in recent weeks. He will never be chancellor if he continues with this kind of stuff. Apparently he never heard of Igschl, from where tourists originally brought in the virus. That's also a factor in the low death rate, since most of these tourists were not much older than late 40s.

Also, if the Romanians and Bulgarians weren't working in meat factories with poor hygiene standards for a few nickels an hour, there might not be another outbreak as reported today (600+ people infected and over 7,000 under mandatory quarantine).

[President Johnson]

Today, there are reports about a British study that shows blood type is apparently connected to heavily course of Covid19. The reason is yet unknown. According to the study, blood type A has a 50% higher risk for heavy symptoms, while blood type 0 has the lowest risk. Link to a report

It's kinda interesting because I remember a conversation at lunch with my boss from February and March and I said to him that I believe more unknown factors determine how bad the disease could get. One suggestion I raised was blood type. I didn't read anything like that at the time and I have no deeper knowledge of medical issues in general, I was just guessing.

[President Johnson]

Germany's base reproduction number has spiked to 2.76 - a similar level as in March.

Nevertheless, the Robert Koch Institute says not to worry because the recent spike is a result of highly localized mass outbreaks in Gütersloh, Göttingen, and Berlin-Neukölln which are being contained and is therefore not associated with a nationwide rise in infection numbers.

Leading virologist Christian Drosten now says there might be a "totally worse situation" a month or two from now if we don't act carefully. My general sense is that a lot of people are getting more lax lately since they're tired of this whole stuff. The media and some politicians also made the impression it would be over after Easter, then after summer vacation, which won't be the case.

[President Johnson]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a million deaths overall, like in 1968.

At this rate, it might be more than that. Vaccine won't be available until summer 2021, I guess. Remember that we not just need to find one, which is not even certain, it also needs to be produced en masse. Even if there is one by fall or Christmas, it will take some more months to get to actual herd immunity.

[President Johnson]

Some states in Germany, particularly in the North, are discussing to end mandatory mask wearing in supermarkets and public transportation. Others like Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg are opposed. I dislike the masks as well, but I'm opposed to lift these rules now. The virus is still here and I intend to keep the numbers relatively low (about 500 new infections a day nationwide).

Also, a German study today came out that alcohol consumption rose as a result of the pandemic. In a survey of 3000 people, over 35% said their consumption has increased over recent months. Despite not going out to larger gatherings on weekends, I have to confess I'm drinking more beer than last year. Still not critical as I don't drink everyday, but remarkable.

[President Johnson]

For the first time in weeks, Greece is reporting new cases. Most of them from Serbs who came in as tourists. Greece has closed entry for Serbs now. Otherwise, the Greek government and people have done a good job in slowing the spread, as there are few cases and deaths compared to other countries.

[President Johnson]

The Austrian ConservaGreen government today passed a law that will allow the police to become contact tracers:

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000118565632/polizei-soll-kuenftig-corona-infektionsketten-ermitteln

I don't know... Police usually has too much responsibilities already. In Germany, local health departments hired a lot of students for contact tracking by phone. Most of the students have enough time these days and need the money. That actually is a good idea.

[President Johnson]

A pre-print study, discussed in German media yesterday, found that just few people with mild Covid19 had enough antibodies for a longer period of time (some months). Obviously, this needs further research, but if generally the case, it may be bad news in search for a vaccine. If antibodies disappear in a matter of months, it's going to be difficult to get some sort of herd immunity to effectively stop the virus. Any effective vaccine must make humans immune for at least one or two years, similar to the flu.

[President Johnson]

178 new cases here until 8am.

Just a matter of time until Kurz re-introduces the mandatory mask-wearing in shops etc.

Kurz will make a decision tomorrow:

https://orf.at/stories/3174039

Signs are pointing towards re-introduction of mask-wearing everywhere in public.

In public means in busses/trains and stores? Wearing a mask for a walk in the woods or bike tour obviously makes little sense.

[President Johnson]

People talk about herd immunity at 60%, but even at 15-20%, the virus will slow down travel considerably.

The issue with herd immunity is that even if you accept about 1% dying from an infection, there isn't enough data on long term effects of the disease. Cured doesn't automatically mean healthy again. There are reports from younger people with no pre-existing condition having breathing trouble months later as well as studies that show the disease can cause heart and brain issues. Also, herd immunity only works if immunity lasts for at least a year or so, and there are some indications just a certain percentage of patients are immune for a longer period of time.

[President Johnson]

Well, this is encouraging news.

Yes, probably the closest we are for a vaccine at this point. I hope tests can quickly go through and a vaccine get ready for production earlier next year.

There are also reports that one of two major German companies has entered a new phase in testing for a vaccine as well. Worldwide, there are about 150 different vaccine candidates. A German virologue today said it would be "extreme bad luck" if neither worked. I believe that we will probably end up with more than one vaccine, designed for different demographics or even different virus types as the virus has diversified on its route across the globe.

[President Johnson]

A 49-year old Carinthia woman of Bosnian origin was sentenced to 6 months in prison and a fine of 800€ today for going to a bank located at a mall, during her mandated quarantine at home when she was infected with the Coronavirus.

https://kaernten.orf.at/stories/3058913

The woman pleaded guilty and the judge wanted to set an example for others in quarantine with the harsh penalty.

Absolutely justified. I don't know why some people just are unable to ask family members, friends or neighbors to buy stuff for them. Even if you don't have said people in the region or if they're in quarantine as well, there are local volunteers who offer help for quarantined people. We have a volunteer network in the housing complex as well was handbills on the streets from young folks offering help. And banking can actually be done from home. All you need is internet access and a computer. I would have some understanding for people just getting out for a lone walk in the woods, but this is unacceptable.

[President Johnson]

Germany's current infection rate is still half that of the UK though.

We're maybe a little prone to panicking though.

Yeah, yesterday had 305 new cases, which is similar to the last few weeks. We still have around 6,000 active cases. That's less than Florida adds every single day.

[President Johnson]

Greece now returns to mandatory mask wearing, including on offices. For some reason, churches are exempted.

All Arrivals into Germany from so-called "high-risk areas" will face mandatory testing for Coronavirus, because of concerns about people not adhering to Quarantine regulations. Practically all non-EU countries are designated "high risk". Meaning our drunk tourists can continue coming back from Spain which is surging past 2k cases per day, with no screening whatsoever, but Turkey remains "high-risk" despite less than 1000 a day on a much larger population. No racism here, no sirree. 🙃
 

It's kinda interesting my local radio station was doing poll on the show and most people wanted these mandatory tests not for free. The audience basically agreed people should pay for the tests when they go to high-risk areas.

[President Johnson]

A German study released today looked at 10,000 hospitalizations from Covid19 and found some interesting data: About 20% of hospitalized patients in the country died. Unfortunately, more than half, 53%, of patients in need of a ventilator (17% out of these group) didn't survive. Furthermore, men had about 25% higher risk to die from the infection. Interestingly, the share of over 80 year olds in need for a ventilator was actually lower than expected, just 12%. In the age group 60 to 79 it was 25%, under 60 years 15%.

That this data was collected from 10,000 hospitalized patients is actually a pretty high number, which indicates a high accuracy. Noteworthy: Germany did not have a shortage of intensive care beds even at the peak of the pandemic in spring (several non-essential surgerys were delayed in advance and fewer people went to the doctor for other diseases). Instead, a number of French and Italian patients were relocated to Germany for intensive care to provide relief for their countries.

The study was cited in a Tagesschau Article (in German).

[President Johnson]

Amidst a continuing flre-up of cases in Germany, 20,000 anti-lockdown and anti-vaccination protestors went to the streets of Berlin yesterday to express their outrage against Bill Gates or something. The protest was eventually broken up by the police because nobody cared to wear masks or keep distance to their fellow protestors, despite being urged so by the authorities.

My personal opinion: Of course you are free to oppose a hypothetical second lockdown and wholeheartedly embrace the Swedish coronavirus policies, but these people don't seem to be willing to do anything to actually prevent another lockdown themselves. They fail to understand that the key to Sweden's response was based on personal responibility and they refuse to act responsibly. This is because there is unfortunately a huge intersection between people who oppose any anti-coronavirus measures and people who believe that the coronavirus is totally harmless and that there's a government conspiracy to hide that "fact".

These people and their anti-intellectualism are desperate. I mean, Germany is one of the best countries to live in and with, despite some flaws, one of the best healthcare systems in the world. So far, the country got through the pandemic with far less deaths and economic disstress compared to others and they complain about wearing a mask for something like half an hour while they go into a store or ride the bus. Sometimes you could assume we're actually living too well.

[President Johnson]

Germany yesterday for the first time in months has reported over 1,000 new cases a day. Experts are still cautious to call it a second wave. If anything, a more flat one so far.

Also, some states and municipalities have increased fees for violating the mandatory mask wearing in stores and public transportation.