🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

How far behind are the CDU? Could a late swing or polling error mean they come first, or is a SPD win pretty likely now?

Some polls are within the margin of error, some are not. Most reputable pollsters have an SPD lead of 3-5%. There has been a slight movement in favor of the Union at the expense of the FDP, but there is not enough time. Federal election polls are always off to some degree, so there is always a surprise: Most underestimated the Union in 2013, most heavily overestimated the Union in 2017. Some things can always happen. But at the moment, I'd rather be Olaf Scholz than Armin Laschet.

Yeah, the Union's bleeding is stopped so far, but as I said earlier, there wasn't much room to fall anymore. By the way, INSA did another poll asking voters how "safe" their preferences are, and 17% said they vote CDU/CSU no matter what. SPD is at 20% in that category, while 39% and 46%, respectively, could imagine voting CDU/CSU or SPD. Just 22% were a hard No for the SPD (lowest share of any party), and 30% the same for the Union.

All most recent polls have the Union at 22% now, while the SPD is between 25% and 27%, like this one (even if there is a small movement to Laschet, it's not enough so far and a lot of people already voted by mail):

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1440312933632806927

However, I'll still be nervous as hell on Sunday as I'll be at a SPD election night party in our county seat.

[President Johnson]

Another YouGov poll, September 23.

SPD: 25%
Union: 21% (+1)
GRÜNE: 14% (-1)
AfD: 12% (+1)
FDP: 11% (+1)
LINKE: 7% (-1)
FW: 2% (-1)
Others: 7%

The same poll also finds that 22% are absolutely certain to vote SPD, CDU/CSU is only at 17% here. Furthermore, 36% answered to be "open" to vote for the Union while 46% say the same about the SPD. 40% say they wouldn't vote for the Union; for the SPD that number is 28%.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1440920275978182657

[President Johnson]

Meh, seems at least some small Union surge in the final ZDF/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll just released.

SPD: 25,0%
Union: 23,0% (+1,0)
GRÜNE: 16,5% (+0,5)
FDP: 11,0%
AfD: 10,0% (-1,0)
LINKE: 6,0%
FW: 3,0% (NEU)
Others: 5,5% (-3,5)

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1441128228836446212


Chancellor preference:

Scholz (SPD): 47% (-1)
Laschet (CDU): 20% (-2)
Baerbock (GRÜNE): 16%
Don't know: 17% (+3)

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1441130717522669570


64% say Scholz is up to the chancellorship, 30% say no. Only 26% say the same about Laschet while 67% don't think he's up for the job. Baerbock is at 25/69% underwater, though it's now very unlikely she becomes chancellor anyway.

[President Johnson]

Two more polls out, with almost no movement anymore.

Ipsos:
SPD: 26%
Union: 22%
GRÜNE: 16%
FDP: 12%
AfD: 11%
LINKE: 7%
Others: 6%

Forsa:
SPD: 25%
Union: 22%
GRÜNE: 17%
FDP: 12%
AfD: 10%
LINKE: 6%
Others: 8%

https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm


Christian Lindner now openly saying he'd prefer a Jamica coalition "if possible". While Green co-leader Habeck responded with skepticism and Baerbock yesterday dodging the coalition question, it's abundantly clear: Anyone who wants to send CDU/CSU packing and into opposition must vote SPD. Only if the SPD clearly comes in first, the Union is out of power and Olaf Scholz will be chancellor. I hope a few Green voters switch to SPD now as it's clear a progressive government can only be headed by a strong SPD and a leader who knows how to get stuff done.

[President Johnson]

It's Allensbach with a strong CDU/CSU house effect, but this poll isn't really good news for Linke:

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1441408743401410562?s=19

It's would be so hilarious for Die Linke to be out and SPD-Greens having a majority. Still doubt that will happen though.

[President Johnson]

Shameless lack-of-an-answer-induced repost:

Having not paid as much attention to this election as I would've liked to, would it be right to state that the only mathematically possible coalitions that'd also be politically possible (i.e., not including AfD) can be traffic-light (SPD/Green/FDP), Jamaica (Union/Green/FDP), GroKo but with the SPD heading it, & R2G (SPD/Green/Linke), with traffic-light at about a 2/3rds chance, R2G at about a 1/3rd chance, & reverse-GroKo & Jamaica being extremely unlikely?

Likewise, would it be right to state that any coalition negotiations - but especially if they potentially result in failure & another GroKo a-la 2017 - will likely drag into 2022 & thus entail that Merkel remains caretaker Chancellor in the meantime?

Regarding the latter question: Yes, Merkel will be caretaker Chancellor until a successor is elected. Depending on the result and the duration of coalition negotiations, her Chancellorship could very well last until 2022, which would allow her to hold one last New Year's speech. If she remains Chancellor beyond 16th of December, she would break Helmut Kohl's record of 16 years and 26 days as head of government of the Federal Republic.

I wouldn't rate Jamaica as completely impossible, although it is not the likeliest option at the moment of course. The INTM forecast (https://www.wer-gewinnt-die-wahl.de/en), which is kind of comparable to FiveThirtyEight, projects Jamaica to be the most likely coalition option actually, based on surveying scholars. Yet, that evaluation should be taken with a grain of salt.

If CDU/CSU becomes largest force, the likelihood of Jamaica would be increased by a lot. FDP leader Christian Lindner stated in yesterdays' debate that he prefers Jamaica over a traffic light coalition, although he doesn't exclude the latter. Scholz meanwhile was clearly flirting with the red-green-yellow option, knowing that this variant is way less polarizing and more popular than R2G.

I'd more agree with political scientist and publisher Albrecht von Lucke than said model; he stated that in case the SPD finishes ahead of the Union, a trafficlight coalition is extremely likely. He also added the result for the Union will be a debacle no matter what since they're going to lose at least seven or eight points.

Small specification: Merkel will remain regular chancellor until October 26, when the new Bundestag assembles. Then President Steinmeier will formally relief the chancellor and ministers from their posts, but entrust them to remain in office on an acting basis (called "acting federal government"; "geschäftsführende Bundesregierung") until a new chancellor is elected. There's no deadline specified in any law and an acting cabinet has the same powers as a regular one. Only difference is that ministers can't be replaced anymore, and if one leaves the post early, another one has to take over that ministry on an acting basis as well.

[President Johnson]

So looks like the polls are done now? You have to go back to late August to find a survey the Union was ahead last time. I can't think of an election anywhere a party or candidate lost despite leading all polls in over three weeks. However, I'm still far from saying a first place finish for the SPD is a done deal yet, even though the Union was overestimated in 2017.

My concern is that some reluctant Union sympathizers finally vote for them to prevent the SPD from winning. Given there are still a lot of undecideds and not so long ago the CDU/CSU was over 30% it's certainly possible. However, it's also possible some Green voters switch over to SPD to prevent a Jamaica coalition since we know most of them prefer a coaltion with the Social Democrats.

[President Johnson]

Anymore poll expected for this night in Germany?
The most recent poll is a Wahlkreisprognose. It is the unique poll in which there were data collected on September 24th. The other ones had data collected until September 23rd.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_German_federal_election

Doesn't look like. There was a final one for the MV and Berlin state elections showing the SPD ahead though. I thought maybe INSA was putting out another one, but there hasn't been another national poll. On election days itsself it's no longer permitted as far as I know.

[President Johnson]

My question is, would the FDP be similar to the Libertarian party in America? Or, would it be more like “country club/business Republicans?”

Definitely the latter.
Oh, and your acquaintances are absolutely right about the FDP: It's a sheer and pure economic-liberal pro-business party.
It's only and merely and solely Atlas that thinks they're social-liberal.

The question is how "social liberalism" is truly defined. It's certainly not the same all over the world and especially comparing the US to Europe.

True is that the FDP supports a number of policies that people associate with "social liberalism" such as same sex marriage, decriminalization of cannabis and abortion rights. These issues and a modern immigration reform wouldn't much of an issue in negotiations for a trafficlight coalition.

I wouldn't even compare the FDP to Republicans on other issues since they still support the welfare state and don't question climate change. The modern Republican Party is more like the AfD.

[President Johnson]

HAPPY ELECTION DAY // FROHES WAHLTAG!! The day is finally here! 🇩🇪

I am going to be at the Berlin SPD watch party at The Station Berlin tonight. I will be wearing my SPD t-shirt and maybe put my SAP buttons on my hoodie. I sent an email asking if i could bring my 2 meter-long SPD flag on a flagpole but i got no response 🤔 So unsure if that will be allowed in

Amazing!

I just came back from voting since I prefer to do it in person rather than by mail.

I'll be spending election night at a SPD party in our county seat Böblingen, together with several Social Democrats of various local chapters. I will try to make a few posts here at the same time. Fortunately our district has a very good chance to send a Social Democrat to Berlin since our candidate and county chairwoman Jasmina Hostert is at #9 on the state party list (the district itsself is Likely/Safe CDU). She's definitely an inspiring candidate as a single mom in the late 30s who came to Germany in the 1990s as a refugee of the Balkan wars.

I'm still pretty nervous about the result since I fear polls may underestimate the CDU. 15-20% undecideds make it a wildcard despite the fact my party was leading in the polls for six weeks.

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Armin Laschet wrongly folds his ballot. Hopefully the sympblic picture of the day:

https://twitter.com/Regendelfin/status/1442067990556594178

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Armin Laschet wrongly folds his ballot. Hopefully the sympblic picture of the day:

How can you wrongly fold a ballot?? Jesus...

Newspaper TAZ just posted a meme with the picture saying "don't worry guys, Laschet isn't aiming to become polling station volunteer, just chancellor."

[President Johnson]

A last minute Forsa poll shows that Germans' preferred post-election coalitions are Red-Green-Red and Jamaica, with Traffic Light in a distant third place:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1442116012845920262?s=20
'

Not sure that means much. The answers heavily depend on how the question is being asked. In other surveys that asked whether a certain coalition is viewed positively or negatively, RRG had the worst performance followed by Jamaica. Only trafficlight was just barely underwater.

[President Johnson]

Man, I’m nervous as hell, now at our local SPD party.

[President Johnson]

ZDF has SPD ahead 25.8 to 24.2%.

[President Johnson]

SPD ahead 25.5 to 24.4 in ARD. So the gap increases.

[President Johnson]

Despite the exit polls being closer than we thought, make no mistake that this is an emphatic rejection of the CDU/CSU by the electorate, and a good result for the SPD.

Absolutely, though all depends now on FDP and Greens. And we have to see whether the gap between first and second continues to grow.

[President Johnson]

Fun fact: CDU far right candidate Hans Georg Maaßen has lost his district by a ten point margin. And Karl Lauterbach (SPD) won with 45% in a landslide.

[President Johnson]

Back home from our party now, and it feels awesome to be a member of the strongest political force in Germany.

Everything depends now on FDP and Greens, and I predict it won't be that easy since both of thrm have difference preferences between SPD and CDU. Interestingly, I spoke with a bunch of Greens since they had their election night party in the same restaurant, and all of them wanted to enter a trafficlight coalition and not Jamaica.

[President Johnson]

Congratulations to Social Democrat Anna Kassautzki, who doesn't have her own Wikipedia lemma, on conquering Merkel's constituency Vorpommern-Rügen – Vorpommern-Greifswald I. 👏🏻🙌🏻🤝🏻

That's bittersweet. Mutti looked very shocked and sad when standing next to Laschet during his address after polls closed.

[President Johnson]

Even the SPD is ahead of CDU now in Saxony. That's a shocker.

[President Johnson]

Newssources like Tagesschau already report there is severe backlash against Laschet among members of the CDU's and CSU's chairboards and he kinda took back the expression for a "mandate to form a government". Saxony Minister-President Michael Kretschmer said he doesn't see a mandate to govern for his party. So it remains to be seen what happens within the Union in the next few days.

Jamaica is still not off the table, though Anton Hofreiter and Michael Kellner, leading Green politicians, openly said to prefer a coalition with the SPD. Hofreiter explicitly stated that the party gained five points while the Union lost a lot of ground.

[President Johnson]

Joe Biden on the SPD: "I’ll be darned... they’re solid!" That's really cute, Uncle Joe would certainly have voted for my party here.

Now, on a more serious note, criticism on Laschet continues to increase from within his party. A number of backbenchers and state legislators already demanded his resignation. I think the pressure continues to mount unless he's quickly able to negotiate terms about Jamaica coalition.

A quick survey conducted today found that only 16% of Germans think he should be chancellor, 62% say Olaf Scholz should become chief executive. A majority also wants the SPD to lead the government. Only FDP voters slightly prefer Jamaica over trafficlight, while more than eight of ten Green voters want a trafficlight coalition.

[President Johnson]

Some new developments: Looks like Laschet's standing within his party is increasingly deteriorating. Not just may he not get his will in the question about the faction leader later today, Söder now congratulated the SPD to victory and said Olaf Scholz has the best chances to become chancellor. "There's only a small chance or Jamaica", he said and added "the CSU won't sell out all their positions in potential talks." Already yesterday he emphasized that the CSU's weight within the faction has increased.

FDP Deputy Leader Wolfgang Kubucki, an architect of the Schleswig-Holstein Jamaica coalition, also just said the chances for Jamaica and Laschet as chancellor are low since the CDU has "fallen in disarray". Kubicki added something like "with whom to you want to negotiate if there's no strong man or woman, and about what?"

It's also remarkable Angela Merkel has been completely silent. She's totally out of the news these days.

[President Johnson]

Laschet and Brinkhaus have made a compromise that Brinkhaus will only be re-elected for a six-month term today.

Brinkhaus has just been reelected with 85% of the vote, for six months.

Laschet couldn't run because he would have lost or finish with a disastrous result that would further have weakened his position. In case of a (not unlikely) trafficlight coalition, the caucus leader will be considered opposition leader. And this won't be Laschet and even Brinkhaus far from a safe bet as this post remains one of the last influencal positions the CDU can still offer. Spahn might attempt to take the seat then, or potentially Norbert Röttgen. Even Merz' name was mentioned, which is kinda hilarious considering he already held the position for most of Gerhard Schröder's first term as chancellor 20 years (!) ago. After 2002, Merkel as CDU chairwoman demanded the role in a move that caused lasting bitterness from Merz.