🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

Seems like Laschet has stablized the Union and turned the tide while the Greens continue to slip. Hopefully enough flock to the SPD for a trafficlight coalition under Olaf Scholz.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1409548639836516356

[President Johnson]

Come on, the SPD must try to make it about who's the best chancellor. Olaf Scholz can win this battle. But Laschet has definitely recovered from his disastrous nomination process. I'm still not convinced Söder will always stick to the script until September 26.

[President Johnson]

Greens continue slip, just 1% ahead of the SPD now. It's just mindboggling the Union has rebounded after all.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1412098184961265665

[President Johnson]

It's a slow trend, but SPD on verge to overtake Greens. If that continues, trafficlight coalition under Chancellor Scholz is at least a possibility. Scholz also leads Baerbock in chancellor preference and is tied with Laschet.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1413976350231343104

[President Johnson]

There are Allensbach, Kantar (Emnid), Forsa, Forsch’gr. Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA and YouGov polls. Which one is more reliable?

Usually I prefer Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Infratest Dimap the most. Latter is primarily used by the ARD. Forsa somehow always gets the SPD very poor numbers.

[President Johnson]

Armin Laschet currently under fire in social media networks as a camera captured him joking and laughing in the background while President Frank-Walter Steinmeier spoke to reporters in flooded areas.

He clearly should have been more careful, but the attacks on him are a little off on my opinion.

[President Johnson]

While the SPD just improves in a slow pace, Genosse Olaf starts pulling ahead in the polls for chancellor. In the latest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey, 34% prefer Scholz as chancellor, ahead of Laschet (29%) and Baerbock (20%). And that's even before Laschet's issue of plagiarism related to a 2009 book by him came out.

The trend is truly good news for the SPD as a whole, though we need to get better in messaging. If people want him as head of government, they need to vote for the Social Democrats. I think by the second half of August and into September we're going to have a clearer picture as voters beyond the political nerds start paying attention and folks are returning from vacation.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1422258708416016387

[President Johnson]

New ARD poll, SPD surging and Genosse Olaf trouncing Laschet and Baerbock in chancellor preference. 29% are still undecided which party to vote for. So if we play our cards right and Laschet continues to stumble, Chancellor Scholz is still possible.





https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2711.html

[President Johnson]

Another brand new poll with SPD and Greens tied and the Union in decline. As for prefered chancellor, Scholz leads Laschet and Baerbock in this poll 27-14-13%. Having twice as much support as Laschet is stunning. It's becoming a pattern and I hope we will have convinced these 27% to vote SPD by late September.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1424141439689232388

[President Johnson]

A poll is being mentioned on social media that has Scholz on 35%.

Yes, that was the Infratest Dimap poll I posted on the previous page. Scholz leads in chancellor preference 35-20-13% over Laschet and Baerbock, respectively.

[President Johnson]

Scholz also probably has the majority of Linke on his side, given how the federal Linke party does not campaign for the PM slot and instead prefers to enter coalitions with reformist parties. Those voters are likely committed to Linke - they have to be after everything that has happened - but still prefer Scholz.

The FDP lack a clear preferred option, and AfD voters support nobody.

So the numbers are probably a bit deceptive, but it does suggest two things: Laschet still personally has work to do in order to recover from the leadership battles, and the Greens have some voters who might go for the SPD if given the opportunity.

The Linke would never campaign for the Chancellor slot, as it is simply impossible to achieve that as a non-Volkspartei ("major party"). The only party besides CDU/CSU and SPD that has ever stated ambitions for the Chancellors' office was the FDP in 2002, and that attempt failed miserably ("Project 18"). The Greens only nominated a Chancellor candidate this year since it's within the range of possibilities.

FDP voters would probably lean towards Laschet though, lots of the liberal base are disaffected CDU voters. Support for Baerbock would probably be lowest among them.

Ah, and today a new poll got dropped that sees the Free Voters at 3.5 %. Doubtful they'll make it, but keep an eye on it if Laschet continues to be a lackluster candidate. The FW leader Aiwanger got some media attention recently for his refusal to get vaccinated.

I forgot about that akward 2002 FDP move. why on earth did they think it was even tenable?

Madness on part of then-party leader Guido Westerwelle.

[President Johnson]

Insane polling numbers, and Forsa always underestimates the SPD.

The Forsa survey also included a chancellor preference poll: 26% for Scholz, 16% for Baerbock and 12% (!) for Laschet. Laschet's numbers are beyond pathetic at this point. His insistence to become the candidate over Söder really comes back to haunt them big time and it's no longer guaranteed they'll keep the chancellorship. Maybe Laschet is aiming his own Project 18?

If Social Democrats keep this up and the Scholzomat has a strong debate performance, we can actually win this thing.

[President Johnson]

Laschet's numbers are beyond pathetic at this point. His insistence to become the candidate over Söder really comes back to haunt them big time and it's no longer guaranteed they'll keep the chancellorship. Maybe Laschet is aiming his own Project 18?

If Social Democrats keep this up and the Scholzomat has a strong debate performance, we can actually win this thing.

Is there any chance he may give up and let Söder replace him?

Would the Greens insist on getting the chancellorship in a coalition even if the SDP were slightly bigger?

Not this late. Given how stubborn Laschet is been in the past, he'll not give up the candidacy. In doing so, he'd admit defeat before a single ballot is counted. He would have to step down as CDU leader then, which would definitely happen in case of a defeat. With that being said, he still has a good chance to become chancellor as long as the Union comes in first, even if it's just in the low/mid 20s. And if the Greens finish ahead of the SPD, a trafficlight coalition is far less likely than with Scholz at the top.

Whoever is strongest party in a coalition gets the chancellorship. There have been no exceptions to this rule so far, even if the difference is just marginal. That was a big issue during the formation of the Grand Coalition in 2005, as the SPD was just behind by 1% (some SPD politicians even argued CDU and CSU were separate parties and therefore the SPD would be the strongest coalition partner). An "Israeli model" was also discussed at the time, where Schröder and Merkel would each serve two years as chancellor. However, this was never agreed upon.

[President Johnson]

Who would the CDU/CSU support for the Chancellorship if they get in third?

They would go into opposition. At least Söder said they would, as he'd consider this as a vote of no confidence.

Ideologically, Scholz is definitely closer, but he'd be tougher to deal with as junior partner in a governing coalition since he has far more experience than Baerbock.

[President Johnson]

What makes Laschet so unpopular that he's apparently tanking that much? I thought he was kind of a Merkel clone and therefore popular?

He is a lackluster candidate and completely ignored Söder's high popularity, who was far more visible during the pandemic as Söder made a much more decisive impression in handling the crisis than Laschet. Laschet is also very vague about a lot of issues and without the incumbency Merkel had just few people know what he actually stands for other than status-quo. But most importantly is definitely that he ignored the base's will by insisting to become the candidate instead of Söder. It was pretty much the famous smokefilled backroom deal as he only had the backing of the CDU's executive board. And even they only endorsed him because a defeat or withdrawl would have serious damaged his standing as party leader (a post he was just barely elected to months before). And then of course there was his missmanagement during the floods and the cameras caught him joking with others while there.

The Union is also plagued with corruption scandals like the mask affairs and vast incompetence of a number of their ministers.

[President Johnson]

Genosse Olaf is crushing it. The big task remains to convince enough of these Scholz backers to actually vote SPD, but I'm growing more and more optimistic by the day.

Who would have thought this would happen just two years after he lost the race for party leader? He was actually close to resigning as Finance Minister at that point.

[President Johnson]

It's actually happening. Or at least there's a real chance. I remember how the SPD and Scholz got laughed off last year when they nominated him. It seemed like a joke a party polling at 15% or below was nominating a "chancellor candidate".

Both the Union and Greens nominated poor candidates; in Baerbock's case it's also the press giving her bad headlines for smaller errors. I think that's a bit unfair to her, though her lack of experience is probably an equal or larger factor here. Scholz has a lot of experience and comes off as a pragmatic and thoughtful leader, who can get things done. At the same time, I never have seen my party this united and disciplined. We just need to keep it going and maybe Laschet and his party give us more ammunition in the weeks to come. I definitely like this timeline so far.

[President Johnson]

If the SPD ends up being the largest party, what coalition could Scholz form? Would the CDU be willing to be the junior partner in a grand coalition? Would the FDP be willing to be a third wheel in a Traffic light coalition? Would a red-red-green all left coalition be a possibility if the math added up?

Scholz is too moderate within the SPD to form a coalition with the Linke.

He prefers SPD-Union I suppose, or even more so SPD-Greens-FDP.

If the Union loses the election by a lot, they will go into opposition.

Expect the SPD to gain more in the next weeks, when German voters return from the beaches.

Scholz doesn't prefer another coalition with the Union and (rightfully) said they need time in opposition. His preferred coalition is traffic light, although he doesn't say so directly in public. If the SPD actually overtakes the Union, a Grand coalition under him would only be a last reserve with a third partner, though I don't see the FDP not entering a government. Markus Söder also said the Union shouldn't enter any coalition led by SPD or Greens and that he considers a second or third place as de facto ousting from any positions of power.

It's actually happening. Or at least there's a real chance. I remember how the SPD and Scholz got laughed off last year when they nominated him. It seemed like a joke a party polling at 15% or below was nominating a "chancellor candidate".

Both the Union and Greens nominated poor candidates; in Baerbock's case it's also the press giving her bad headlines for smaller errors. I think that's a bit unfair to her, though her lack of experience is probably an equal or larger factor here. Scholz has a lot of experience and comes off as a pragmatic and thoughtful leader, who can get things done. At the same time, I never have seen my party this united and disciplined. We just need to keep it going and maybe Laschet and his party give us more ammunition in the weeks to come. I definitely like this timeline so far.

Are German voters thinking of him as more of a natural successor to Merkel than Laschet?

It depends, some certainly do. There's a large voting bloc that went for the CDU previously because of Merkel. Now that she's no longer on the ballot, they're up for grabs. Certainly there are also disaffected CDU voters who don't like Laschet but want to prevent Baerbock from becoming chancellor.

[President Johnson]

Kantar poll: (compared with the last poll)

22% CDU/CSU (nc)
21% SPD (+2)
19% Grüne (-2)
12% FDP (nc)
11% AfD (nc)
  7% Linke (nc)
  8% Others (nc)

Poll conducted between 11 and 17 August 2021. Polled 1,920 votes.

Oh my lord, I love this timeline. There's actually a chance - though I really doubt it comes to that - CDU/CSU end up third. Also interesting is that the SPD'd rise is just barely at the expense of the Greens, who maintain their position in the upper teens. However, I still expect them to end up between 14% and 17% as polls often overestimated their support. A third place finish by the Union would be glorious though.

I really have a hard time seeing Laschet mainting party leader even if the Union ends up first with less than 24%. According to CSU inner circles, Söder already described the situation as very precarious during a CSU board meeting today. That he'll replace Laschet as candidate is absolutely not going to happen though. I wouldn't be shocked if he secretly wants Laschet to lose and then run as chancellor candidate in 2025. Otherwise, he'll probably never get the chance again as Laschet would certainly run for reelection to a second and third term.

[President Johnson]

Not a poll, but a prognosis from "Wahlcheck":

https://twitter.com/wahlcheckDE/status/1429022489984880643?s=19


Don't want to get ahead here as September 26 isn't there yet, but I actually can't believe this is actually happening. Ever since I follow national politics, I wholeheartedly supported the SPD and was disappointed I couldn't vote in 2009 because my 18th birthday was ten days late. I've been a SPD member since 2013 and engaged in every single campaign since that year, in federal, state and local elections. Together with my local SPD buddies I've talked to hundreds of people on the streets, stood in the rain to talk to voters and, heck yes, handed out free condoms in a wrapping with an SPD-print in front of a nightclub in the middle of the night to convince young people to get out and vote for Social Democrats. I've done all of that with pleasure and joy, but unlike a few successes at the municipal levels (a friend of mine is a council member) every state and especially federal election has been a disappointment. I've always wanted a SPD chancellor back in office and just months after the party was presumed irrelevant has actually a chance to move back into the chancellery. It would be so awesome.

[President Johnson]

Is the gap between the FDP and the Green to big to reconcile for a traffic light coalition?

I don't think that the gap between FDP and Greens is bigger than the one between FDP and SPD.

I mean FDP and SPD would have some issues with each other over social welfare, while Greens and SPD would primarily have some issues over climate protection.

Greens and FDP would legalize weed together though. In fact, a traffic light would probably the most pro-weed government in German history.

However, for some reason the FDP would still prefer the SPD as chancellor party as opposed to the Greens. Their General Secretary Volker Wissing, who twice negotiated the RLP-trafficlight coalition in 2016 and 2021 recently stated he can't imagine such a coalition under a Green chancellor. Now if the polling numbers hold up, it won't come to that.

While I'd prefer a coalition with the FDP over Die Linke, Lindner would definitely demand a huge price from the SPD and the Greens. I just hope they don't agree to tax cuts for big business and pass a 12€ minimum wage as the SPD has promised (the Greens would support that as well).

[President Johnson]

What's totally crazy is the idea of the SPD winning the Chancellorship with just 21% of the vote.

Thanks Laschet.

Wouldn't even 31% be unprecedentedly low?

That was the floor until now, Adenauer was elected with 31 percent in 1949.

What we're seeing is the "Europeanization" of the partisan landscape. The days of the two major parties getting 35+% or even over 40% are pretty much over. As in other countries, we'll probably see governing coalitions with three partners and the chancellor's party just being in the 20s.

I'd don't like that and wish we'd be back to SPD and CDU/CSU competeting for first place in the upper 30s or low 40s since that was not just a more stable landscape, people could actually better determine what happened to their vote. For example in 2017, Linke and AfD were the only certain anti-Merkel votes. Anyone who wanted Merkel out and not to vote for either of these couldn't be certain their vote wouldn't ultimately keep her in power.

[President Johnson]

Also, at this point I believe the SPD will win the election, which is crazy to think about given just a couple of months ago that looked impossible.

That being said, I think that's only possible because the CDU and the Greens nominated such poor Chancellor candidates.

I think had either the Greens nominated Habeck instead of Baerbock, or had the Union nominated Soder or Merz instead of Laschet (that being said, I think AKK would have done even worse than Laschet), the SPD would probably not be in a position to climb back from the hole they were in.

What the SPD has here is they're the one party that nominated a decent Chancellor candidate.

At anyrate, good luck to Scholz and the SPD.

Wait, you're rooting for the SPD now? I thought you supported Les Republicains in France?

[President Johnson]

Another day, another poll, another tie:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1429870551695306755