🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

Now the biggest jokes have entered the race for the SPD leadership. Honestly, if they ever got elected, I'd quit the party. This would be the final nail in the coffin.

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1161610892183855104

[President Johnson]

I endorse or will vote for Olaf Scholz. He's a third-wayer and haas a ton of experience in public office. Hope he wins and makes the party great again. If Schwan and Stegner were elected, I'd quit the party.

[President Johnson]

I endorse or will vote for Olaf Scholz. He's a third-wayer and haas a ton of experience in public office. Hope he wins and makes the party great again. If Schwan and Stegner were elected, I'd quit the party.

Don't you think he would be a better chancellor candidate than a party chairman?

Actually yes, though the question is whether we still call it chancellor candidate. As of now, Robert Habeck is most likely to become chancellor as someone not from CDU ranks.

[President Johnson]

The acting SPD triumvirate becomes a duumvirate consisting of Malu Dreyer and Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel, since Manuela Schwesig steps down after a breast cancer diagnosis.

She retains the governorship and her state party chair, though.

Yeah, this is very sad news. She's a very smart woman. Hopefully she recovers fully and very quickly.

[President Johnson]

Former SPD leader and vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel will resign his parliamentary seat on November 1, officially ending his career in politics. Very sad and actually disgusting how the SPD has treated him since the 2017. He's a very smart and down-to-earth guy and straightshoter who should have kept the position of foreign minister instead of Heiko Maas. I had the opportunity to meet him personally three times.

[President Johnson]

Former SPD leader and vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel will resign his parliamentary seat on November 1, officially ending his career in politics. Very sad and actually disgusting how the SPD has treated him since the 2017. He's a very smart and down-to-earth guy and straightshoter who should have kept the position of foreign minister instead of Heiko Maas. I had the opportunity to meet him personally three times.

And a Russian gas companies lobbyist so good that he will have no longer any influence on German politics. The less Russlandversteher in Germany, the better for the EU.

Siggi is engaged the Atlantik Brücke, he's not a Russian asset.

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Frauke Petry's party Die Blauen ("the Blues") will dissolve at the end of the year. Petry was the leader of the AfD from 2015 to 2017. With the help of the party's right/nationalist wing, she ousted party founder Bernd Lucke as leader, who was less to the right and focused on criticism of the Euro. He subsequently left the AfD and founded a minor economically liberal/socially conservative party in opposition to the Euro. In 2017, Petry herself broke ties with the AfD because she wasn't rightwing enough anymore. The party she founded afterwards never gained any traction.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/blaue-partei-101.html

[President Johnson]

New ARD/Infratest Dimap poll:

Union: 26% (-2)
Greens: 22% (-2)
SPD: 14% (+1)
AfD: 14% (-)
Left: 9% (-)
FDP: 8% (-)
Others: 7%


Most stunning number: AKK at 18% (!) approval rating! She's dropping like a rock from already low numbers, as she's doing a bad job both as Defense minister and CDU leader.


https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1192487270810562560

[President Johnson]

Anyway AKK must be finished at this point. No way in their right mind would the CDU nominate her.

The big question is what Friedrich Merz will do? Will he challenge her at the next convention or just wait until she's run of town. I think the latter is safer for him, because I doubt he would win a majority of delegates yet. He would win a vote among all party members, though.

CDU made a mistake not to elect him in the first place.

[President Johnson]

The Chairman of the Law Committee (Rechtsausschuss) of the Bundestag, Stefan Brandner has been ousted by members of all other parties except for the AfD itsself. It's the first time in Bundestag history this happened, following a number of very controversial statements the guy made. Of course, the pathetic AfD clowns are playing the victim now.

[President Johnson]

Major shift in polling due to cov-19 pandemic. Also, Merkel was a 64% approval rating (Olaf Scholz at 63%).



_{https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend-2167.html}

[President Johnson]

After Meuthen got his balls clipped by Höcke & Co., he walked back on his proposition to split the party and get rid of the extremists, calling it a "mistake" now.

The guy is a coward who surrendered to the extreme right. Or this was just some sort of publicy by a joke party. Instead of splitting the AfD, the party should just be dissolved.

[President Johnson]

Is the CDU receiving more support just a rally around the flag event or is there something more behind it?

Yes, basically. To be honest, the entire federal government is doing a great job here. Especially in aid the businesses and employees.

It's only pathetic how the SPD is not benefiting from that although doing half of the work. Olaf Scholz is doing a phenomenal job, but our party base was stupid enough to elect two lackluster leaders on the left instead of him. I'm sure the SPD numbers would look different if he was our leader. Still proud to have voted for him twice in the leadership contest.

[President Johnson]

I'll be a strong supporter of Olaf Scholz, who is a fellow third wayer. He's a smart and pragmatic politican, who can get things done. However, it was a grave mistake the party elected two lackluster leaders, who were unable to capitalize from the good work of the SPD during the pandemic. If Scholz was party leader, the numbers might be better.

Things are fluid and a lot can happen up to September 2021, but after 2017 I have abandoned hope my party will ever reclaim the chancellorship. At this point, it's kinda exhausting the Union seems to be the only party with chances to win the chancellorship, now that the Greens have lost ground as well.

[President Johnson]

After more than two years of stalemate, the Grand Coalition has agreed to some compromise to cap the size of the Bundestag ahead of the next election. Right now, there are 709 members (598 is the regular size), already by the far the most in history and one of the largest parliaments in the world. During the next session after the 2021 election, a commission is supposed to work out another reform, aiming to reduce the number of districts from 299 to 280. It's still a ridiculous compromise since it doesn't solve the the overall problem with the current election law. But obviously no side wants to give up seats. The politicians clearly have failed to their work here. The Left, Greens and FDP actually presented a joint proposal that would have gone more far, but the the Grand coalition has rejected it.

The issue here is the so called "personalized proportional representation". Out of 598 seats, 299 are assigned to the individual winner of that district. That means you have two votes on the ballot, one for your local candidate, and one for your party (splitting is possible). But if a party wins more districts than they are supposed to be represented according to the result by party, the other parties get additional seats, until the composition of the Bundestag actually fits the overall result. The problem: the usual size of 598 seats explodes the more parties are in the Reichstag building. If the 2021 election result is close to current polling, there might be 800 seats. Not only would costs explode, it would also make the legislative branch a complete mess. Observers and MPs themselves already say it's way too much.

My personal preference would be a simple majority vote by district similar to the US and UK. I'd create 598 districts rather than just 299, and then have two rounds of voting, to make sure the winner of each district isn't just elected with 30% or less. In a first round, each party would run their candidate, while in the second round the two who came out on top face each other. This may break the CDU's dominance, especially with 598 rather than 299 districts, since SPD and Green voters would likely back each other, depending on who advances to the runoff (in addition to the left and even parts of the FDP may not vote for the CDU candidate). With such a voting system, the government would function much better since a fractured legislative is a source of instability and tends to produce just minimal compromises. Furthermore, with smaller districts, the elected representatives would be closer to their constituents.

[President Johnson]

Interestingly, CDU+FDP and CDU+Grüne fall just barely short of a majority here, at 294 and 285 seats respectively. CDU+AfD does (barely) get a majority but that would not happen. So Germany would probably still see a Grand coalition.

In terms of misrepresentation, the CDU has 16 more seats than it should and the CSU has 7 more than it should. Everyone else loses 4 or 5 seats.

I think a Jamaica coalition would not be unlikely in this scenario.

The next government coalition will be Union and Greens, that I'm pretty sure of. SPD will likely fade into an almost irrelevant political force at the federal level.

[President Johnson]

Friedrich Merz just can't let it go. He just announced his candidacy for a Bundestag seat. The "problem": There is already an incumbent CDU politician, Patrick Sensburg, running for reelection in the district he seeks to represent. And Sensburg isn't just a backbencher. Furthermore, it's unclear what larger goal he has with the candidacy. It will definitely lead to a contested convention vote for the CDU candidacy in the district.

This comes after his "offer" to become Minister of Economics right after losing the CDU leadership to Armin Laschet in the current Merkel government, in which Peter Altmaier already holds the post. The ridiculous move back then was immediately rejected by Merkel and Laschet. The guy is a real trainwreck.

[President Johnson]

Friedrich Merz just can't let it go. He just announced his candidacy for a Bundestag seat. The "problem": There is already an incumbent CDU politician, Patrick Sensburg, running for reelection in the district he seeks to represent. And Sensburg isn't just a backbencher. Furthermore, it's unclear what larger goal he has with the candidacy. It will definitely lead to a contested convention vote for the CDU candidacy in the district.

This comes after his "offer" to become Minister of Economics right after losing the CDU leadership to Armin Laschet in the current Merkel government, in which Peter Altmaier already holds the post. The ridiculous move back then was immediately rejected my Merkel and Laschet. The guy is a real trainwreck.

When was the leadership election? And what was the final result?

Back in January, and Laschet defeated Merz 53-47% in the runoff among the 1,001 delegates. So, Merz lost by more against Laschet than he lost against AKK.

[President Johnson]

Yes, Wagenknecht, go ahead. Split up their votes and get the Left under the 5% threshold. If we can get rid of the AfD as well, we're back to a four party Bundestag, which would make things much easier.

[President Johnson]

So, any thoughts about corrupt Bundestag member Philipp Amthor?
Will the AfD conquer his district, which already encompasses all AfD strongholds within Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? (Every state constituency the AfD had won in 2016 lies within Amthor's federal constituency.)
Is it even possible that the AfD will become the strongest party in MV, now that Amthor is officially leading the statewide party list?

With the recent scandals surrounding Nikolas Löbel (CDU) and Georg Nüßlein (CSU), Amthor is longer in the public spotlight at this point. Both made a fortune by taking huge commissions for mask purchases and are under criminal investigation. Finally Armin Laschet called for their prompt resignations. So far, they just have left the parlamentary group, announced not ro run again and resign by the end of August, a month before the federal election. However, I assume the pressure will take them down the next few days.

[President Johnson]

So, any thoughts about corrupt Bundestag member Philipp Amthor?
Will the AfD conquer his district, which already encompasses all AfD strongholds within Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? (Every state constituency the AfD had won in 2016 lies within Amthor's federal constituency.)
Is it even possible that the AfD will become the strongest party in MV, now that Amthor is officially leading the statewide party list?

With the recent scandals surrounding Nikolas Löbel (CDU) and Georg Nüßlein (CSU), Amthor is longer in the public spotlight at this point. Both made a fortune by taking huge commissions for mask purchases and are under criminal investigation. Finally Armin Laschet called for their prompt resignations. So far, they just have left the parlamentary group, announced not ro run again and resign by the end of August, a month before the federal election. However, I assume the pressure will take them down the next few days.

Nikolas Löbel has renounced both his CDU party membership and his Bundestag seat.
Georg Nüßlein is no longer a member of the CSU, but he still clings to his seat, which Söder insistently urges him to give up.

Söder even urged them to donate the hundred of thousands of euros they made out of these deals.

[President Johnson]

If the Union drops below 30% in September, it's actually possible another government is able to gain a political and mathematical majority. Six months of course is a long time and politics, but the CDU/CSU corruption scandals keep popping up and people get increasingly frustrated with the pandemic missmanagement. And latter especially with the leadership from Union politicans both federal and at the state level.

The SPD just needs a few more points to overtake the Greens to make Olaf Scholz chancellor and either form a red-red-green or (preferably in my opinion) trafficlight coalition. Scholz can make a real case that he's a pragmatic and experienced leader while neither Habeck nor Baerbock come close to his resume as former Labor Minister, First Mayor of Hamburg and now Finance Minister.

I think CDU/CSU desperately need to go back into opposition. They have no new ideas for the future, especially in areas in which we're lagging behind. Not to mention their corruption issues that have revealed deep seated structural problems. A traffic light coalition, despite the differences between SPD/Greens and FDP, could set new impulses in securing social safety in the era of globalization and bringing together environmental protection and sound economic policies paired with a pro-EU, reliable foreign policy.

[President Johnson]

I won't give up hope the SPD can overtake the Greens in the final months. There's a small surge in recent weeks and it's only about five points on average to overcome. Olaf Scholz is definitely far more qualified for chancellor than Habeck or Baerbock. Objectively, he's even more qualified than Söder and Laschet. And I tend to believe the FDP would be more comfortable to enter a Trafficlight coalition under a Chancellor Scholz, who's always been a more centrist and pragmatic Social Democrat.

[President Johnson]

Tareq Alaow already made headlines two months ago, when the ineligible Flüchtling set out to erase the inscription "DEM DEUTSCHEN VOLKE" from the architrave over the entrance to the German Bundestag. I'm not going to shed a tear over him.

Absolutely agree. But the threats against him are despicable and should be punished with prison sentences.

[President Johnson]

The Greens today announced thar their "chancellor candidate" will be announced on April 19, either Robert Habeck or Annalena Baerbock.

While public speculation is that it's 50-50, I'm relatively sure Baerbock will get it because women seem to have sort of a "privilege" here.