🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

Polls from Bavaria are a total disaster for CDU/CSU. Scholz even has an approval rating of 57% in the state, just six points short of Söder's approval. And he's beating Laschet in chancellor preference:

Scholz: 39%
Laschet: 18%
Baerbock: 13%

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1435645352238108674

Again, this BAVARIA. The beautiful thing is that Söder will also be damaged by a result like that.


Trend Research/Radio Hamburg also had a national poll out yesterday:

SPD: 26%
Union: 20%
Greens: 15%
FDP: 13%
AfD: 12%
Linke: 7%
Others: 7%

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1435616533217267726


Is it now time for this?

[President Johnson]

Not sure how "credible" Wahlkreisprognose is, but they had another poll out being very strong for the SPD, probably a bit too strong.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1435707822893830146


What also needs some notice here is that Tuesday in her likely last Bundestag speech, Angela Merkel forcefully endorsed Laschet. Her speech was unusual partisan in contrary to her regular style that is always described as "presidential" and "above partisan politics". Most political observers characterized it as an act of desperation on part of the CDU campaign. CDU politicians including Jens Spahn tried to attack Scholz for calling vaccinated people "test rabbits" in an ironic manner (he called upon the unvaccinated to get the shot and overcome their hesitancy since the vaccinated are doing fine). However, Scholz in a subsequent Bundestag speech simply replied: "Some people obviously don't understand jokes, maybe because they don't have much to laugh looking at their polling numbers".

Additionally, Laschet is currently under fire for a police eviction of a protest camp in the Hambach Forest back in 2018, after a federal court yesterday declared the eviction - ordered by the NRW state government under his leadership - unlawful. #LaschetRuecktritt (Laschet resignation) has trended on Twitter for over a day now.

And of course, Markus Söder sort of continues his jibes toward Laschet. He just declared this weekend's TV debate as de facto last chance to turn it around. Just last Sunday he already stated that a turnaround must happen this week or the election is about to be lost.

And lastly, there's still far-right Hans-Georg Maaßen, the right-wing candidate in Thuringia, who's now picking a fight with a member of Laschet's recently presented "future team" after she indicated to support another candidate in his district. He now publically urged Laschet to remove her from the role. CDU/CSU is in full disarray.

[President Johnson]

Currently watching "Kannste Kanzleramt?" which translates roughly as "Do you know the Chancellory?", a pre-filmed TV show where the three candidates have to go into a classroom and answer questions from teenagers and explain their policies, why they are running, what they want to do, etc. in language that teenagers can understand.

If you're like me and your German is not ~the best~, you can watch it here for free and also they have subtitles in German: https://www.sat1.de/tv/bundestagswahl/kannste-kanzleramt-im-livestream

I'd translate it into "Are you up to the chancellorship?". Kanzleramt can both mean Chancellorship or Chancellery. The German kann has different meanings in English. But thanks for posting this one.

[President Johnson]

I wonder is there is just a little evil voice in Scholz's head that's suggesting reviving the grand coalition but with CDU doing submissive duty. Would almost certainly backfire but wouldn't it be so tempting?

No, he made it very clear that he wants the CDU/CSU in opposition and a recent poll found that 56% of Germans want the same. It's obvious he wants a trafficlight coalition.

[President Johnson]

Scholz shouldn't have said "the questions could also have been submitted in text form", but I think voters will see through the Union's cheap maneuver to take advantage of the raid. Most importantly, it wasn't even directed at Scholz himself or anyone from within his circle, just a unit of the customs authority. Furthermore, Laschet himself is under fire for the Hambach Forest police eviction declared unlawful by a federal court.

On Sunday, there's the next TV debate and Genosse Olaf is very routine with this format.

Btw, the CSU has its party convention this weekend and Söder was reelected as leader with 87% of the vote, less than the last time.

[President Johnson]

Scholz shouldn't have said "the questions could also have been submitted in text form", but I think voters will see through the Union's cheap maneuver to take advantage of the raid. Most importantly, it wasn't even directed at Scholz himself or anyone from within his circle, just a unit of the customs authority. Furthermore, Laschet himself is under fire for the Hambach Forest police eviction declared unlawful by a federal court.

On Sunday, there's the next TV debate and Genosse Olaf is very routine with this format.

Btw, the CSU has its party convention this weekend and Söder was reelected as leader with 87% of the vote, less than the last time.

The SPIEGEL headline explicitly directed the allegation at Scholz himself. Whether it's true or not, these are bad optics for Scholz. Good for him that the issue has already faded somewhat.

SPIEGEL has increasingly become a disappointment with coverage of the election. Just recently they also tried to put up the Warburg Bank issue again with the famous green marker that was already debunked for many weeks at the time. No other major newspaper picked it up, not even conservative leaning WELT.

[President Johnson]

Armin Laschet's speech at the CSU convention was better than expected, according to pundits. However, he's under massive criticism for saying "Social Democrats were wrong on everything in post-war Germany", which is - objectively speaking - historical ignorance. I'd not even say the same applies to Christian Democrats, as Konrad Adenauer has major accomplishments and Helmut Kohl despite everything deserves credit for reunification. Also, Kurt-Georg Kiesinger was a better chancellor than most people think.

New poll about which party runs the best campaign:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1436734067282784262

[President Johnson]

Brand new poll:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1436770642603487238

[President Johnson]

Brand new poll:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1436770642603487238

It would be absolutely hilarious if the Greens manage to fall behind the FDP, although INSA's numbers tend to be lower for Greens and higher for the Liberals.

But such a scenario would also significantly improve the chances of a traffic light coalition, since the FDP could claim the Finance Ministry and would not just serve as an appendix to a red-green government.

Yeah, and again the Greens would get a much worse result than polls just months ahead of the election indicated. They're polling well outside the campaign season and then drop once the election seasons really starts. The opposite was true for the SPD during Schröder's time in office. Some time in 2003 the Union was polling at 50% and the SPD in the mid 20s; even in summer 2005 it was 48% vs. 24%. Once actual campaigning begun, Schröder massively improved and just lost by one point.

[President Johnson]

Laschet will certainly ramp up the attacks; the question is just whether he appears desperate and pathetic in doing so. Genosse Olaf will certainly remain calm and steady, which is what usually resonates with the German electorate.

Baerbock is probably out in the race for the chancellorship, but can be sure to end up as foreign minister and vice chancellor in any government with Green participation (minus vice chancellorship if they somehow end up behind the FDP).

[President Johnson]

Debate is finished. I don't think either candidate had a very clear win, nor did anyone had a severe error. Laschet was kinda hilarious on rents and apartment prices, but on other issues he had at least made his points.

I'm probably biased, but Scholz' closing statement was by far the strongest and most concrete what he wants to accomplish.

In the end, I doubt it changes that much; we just have to check in the next couple of polls whether the investigation into the FIU has any real impact.

[President Johnson]

Infratest Dimap poll (first half of the debate):

Winner:
Scholz 39%
Baerbock 25%
Laschet 24%

Likability:
Baerbock 37%
Scholz 35%
Laschet 18%

Competence:
Scholz 46%
Laschet 24%
Baerbock 19%

Wow, that's good for Scholz if he's even leading when the FIU and CumEx stuff was discussed. If that keeps up, we may call him Teflon Olaf.

[President Johnson]

Laschet has most likely stopped the bleeding in recent days, though there wasn't much room to fall anymore. Not convinced he's turned it around yet, which he absolutely needs. Maybe - and I'm still saying it with caution - people are just done with the CDU after that many years.

[President Johnson]

INSA is doing a ton of polls, there's another one from today showing little move. We need more to see the effects of recent events and the debate. If the numbers roughly remain unchanged over the course of this week, Laschet is in severe trouble. I mean, he already is, but time is running out now.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437421172535267340

[President Johnson]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

Zero. FDP and Linke don't fit together. How is that supposed to work? Die Linke is way to the left of the SPD even on economic issues, where the FDP is classical liberal or center-right (and liberal on social issues). There are already obstacles for SPD-Green-Linke and SPD-Green-FDP, though both are possible. The latter certainly more so, and just today Baerbock expressed skepticism about Die Linke and their foreign policy.

Trafficlight is easily my preference, though SPD-Greens alone would even be better with Die Linke droping below five percent. That's not likely though.

[President Johnson]

New poll BAVARIA:

CSU: 28% (-1)
SPD: 18% (+3)
GRÜNE: 17% (-1)
FDP: 12% (-1)
AfD: 11% (+1)
FW: 6%
LINKE: 4% (+1)
Others: 4% (-2)

(changes to last poll on Sept. 7)

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437653440621158400

Certainly not boding well for the Union, including Sonnenkönig Söder. 28% for the CSU would be a complete disaster. That's 11% less than 2017, which was already considered a debacle and contributed to Horst Seehofer losing his job as Minister-President.

[President Johnson]

Meh, one of Scholz' state secretaries at the Finance Ministery is now under investigation for posting part of the search warrent issued by a court on Twitter. He wanted to "prove" there are differences between the warrant and the attorney's public statement. Not sure whether this is going anywhere, and not a major news story, but still worries me.

Furthermore, the same Austrian guy who made accusations of plagarism against Baerbock and Laschet now says at least three passages in Scholz' book may also be copied (in Laschet's case it's 17). I think this is a smear campaign against all candidates, especially Baerbock.


Another Forsa poll from today (little move and small rebound for Laschet after the 19% poll):

SPD: 25%
CDU/CSU: 21% (+2)
GRÜNE: 17%
FDP: 11% (-2)
AfD: 11%
LINKE: 6%
FW: 3%
Others: 6% (-2)

(changes to last poll on Sept. 7)

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1437767740270465028

[President Johnson]

Another YouGov poll shows no significant movement, only Die Linke gains two points, which is kinda surprising, but probably statistical noise.

If that keeps up, looks like the Finance Minstery raid didn't have an impact. Maybe the opposite is about to happen, as the press increasingly reports critical of the handling and time. The responsible Osnabrück attorney is a CDU member and search warrant was already issues on August 10. So why would you wait a whole month for the raid? Usually a raid is conducted when evidence is about to disappear. Furthermore, the attorney's press statement and court issued search warrant don't exactly match each other. SPD politicians increasingly believe everything isn't a co-incidence and may be a hit job against Scholz (who's not even under investigation himself).

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438367344712110081

[President Johnson]

Three more polls out (I hope the Tweets don't make the page unreadable).

The Union has stopped the bleeding, though there wasn't much territory to fall anymore. However, a real backbouncing would look differently. With every passing day and ongoing voting by mail the SPD remains ahead - often outside the margin of error - I'm growing more and more optimistic. The race still isn't won of course. Undeniably is time running out for Laschet, that much is certain.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438534387587485701

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438450414618349569

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438501952891932678

[President Johnson]

The possible coaltions would be:
Kenya 69.2%
Deutschland (Germany) 64.8%
Ampel (traffic lights) 57.1%
Jamaika 52.7%
Grossekoalition (great) 52.7%
Rot-rot-grün (red-red-green) 51.6%

Wouldn't be the greatest outcome tho

There was never a great coalition in Germany led by the social democrats. It happened only in Austria.
Would the CDU/CSU be willing to become junior?

I have a hard time seeing this. Söder repeatedly said he considers a second place as de facto removal from power, both when the Greens were leading and recently again. However, I wouldn't totally rule it out since parties might avoid calling for a new election that may not even change much.

Certainly hilarious would be Lindner once again pulling off talks, this time for a trafficlight coalition, and CDU/CSU subsequently finding themselves in the same uncomfortable position as the SPD in 2017 (assuming current polls prove right). Scholz may appeal to their responsibility for a stable government ("staatspolitische Verantwortung") and the Union finally agreeing. In this scenario, however, I have a hard time seeing Laschet calling the shots. He'd probably have to resign with a second place finish, let alone a gap of three or more points. Söder himself would be damaged, too, if the CSU ends up at 30% or less in Bavaria. The CSU would certainly make Laschet their single scapegoat for the debacle. The entire CDU might do so, ignoring the fact their weakness has more reasons than Laschet himself.

[President Johnson]

If that keeps up, looks like the Finance Minstery raid didn't have an impact. Maybe the opposite is about to happen, as the press increasingly reports critical of the handling and time. The responsible Osnabrück attorney is a CDU member and search warrant was already issues on August 10. So why would you wait a whole month for the raid? Usually a raid is conducted when evidence is about to disappear. Furthermore, the attorney's press statement and court issued search warrant don't exactly match each other. SPD politicians increasingly believe everything isn't a co-incidence and may be a hit job against Scholz (who's not even under investigation himself).

This reading of the story has resulted in the hashtag #CDUgate trending on Twitter for two days now. Now, Twitter is not Germany, but journalists are pretty active on the platform, and slowly, the story starts to break through.
The tagesschau has reported on these rumors yesterday online. Today, it is the big cover story of SPIEGEL online - unfortunately paywalled. I've also seen Ann-Kathrin Büüsker liking posts referencing the hashtag #CDUgate - she is a higher-ranking journalist at Deutschlandfunk, a very respected news institution in Germany.

So you think there will be last minute movement against the CDU? Polls have been pretty stable over recent days or Laschet made very slight gains in chancellor preference. Still trailing by double digits though.

[President Johnson]

Another strong poll for the SPD:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438865718842384387

Earlier today I was at the market square doing some campaigning with our former local chairman, a SPD veteran for decades, and even convinced at least two former CDU voters to switch over. I just couldn't convince a former SPD and now Linke member after expressing support for the Transatlantic alliance and that I consider Joe Biden a friend of Germany. Lmao.

[President Johnson]

In early 2021, when the SPD decided that Olaf Scholz would be the Spitzenkandidat, I though it would be another disaster like Steinmeier 2009. I though that people who approve Merkel's administration would vote for the CDU and people who disapprove Merkel's administration would vote someone who was not member of the administration. So, I though that the best choice for the SPD would be someone who was not member of Merkel's administration.

I was wrong. Didn't inderstand very well German politics. Maybe, there are many people who slightly approve Merkel's administration, but want some changes. It would be nice to see a poll relating the partisan vote to the rating of Merkel's administration.

It was August 10, 2020 already when he was presented as chancellor candidate. The party was around 14% in the polls and the nomination largely commented as a joke. Scholz insisted a result well in the 20s would be possible and was laughed off. Even I didn't believe him. Back in spring, the Union didn't take him serious either, still at 15% in surveys. Söder famously said the Greens were the main opponents.

If anything, that shows that the electorate has become a lot more volatile and that polls outside election season aren't worth a whole lot of stock. If the SPD wins, it may be the greatest comeback in German election history similar to Harry Truman's reelection in 1948.

[President Johnson]

How would Green voters and members react if the Green Party ignored the SPD clearly winning the National popular vote and clearly having by far the most popular leader, and instead made a shady deal with the CDU and FDP. That led to a rightwing government led by Laschet?

Speaking on my behalf, I don't think Green members and voters care too much about Scholz as a person, but most would clearly prefer an SPD-led government over a Union-led one, based on ideological and issue-based common ground, which is certainly bigger, there.

So the concessions to make Jamaica palatable in this situation would have to be huge (and from an FDP standpoint maybe even bigger than with a traffic light coalition.

While I was - and still am - concerned about a Jamaica coalition, even with the SPD winning the most votes, my mind tells me it's not going to happen as long as the SPD comes in first. CDU/CSU at second place would most likely mean a result of 21-23%, which is a loss of over then points from 2017. Just remember the last election was already considered a debacle at time, like the CSU's 39% finish in Bavaria. If the screens on September 26 indeed show the black bar at minus eleven points, the Union will be thrown in total disarray and Laschet run out of town the very same night. And even Sonnenkönig Söder would have a hard time with the CSU at 30% or less in Bavaria (which is what polls show and would be consistent with national polls). Back in 2017, 39% helped to end Seehofer's reign as Minister-President. I'm not saying Söder will be gone as a result of such a disastrous result, but he'd be under heavy scrutiny as well (and he'll certainly try to scapegoat Laschet and Schäuble for the debacle, with the latter spending his final years in politics as a backbencher).

Coming in second after the SPD, let alone trailing by more than three points, would be a complete meltdown for CDU/CSU and they certainly wouldn't be able to claim any governing mandate, let alone the chancellorship. I'm still not fully convinced it's actually turning out this bad for them, but if the current polls are accurate, there's going to be a CDU/CSU meltdown of epic proportions. I'd certainly enjoy watching that.

[President Johnson]

Just came back from Esslingen, near Stuttgart at a SPD rally. Olaf Scholz gave a great speech about several policy proposals, especially securing jobs and managing the transformation to a corbon neutral economy of the future. He even was humerous at times and certainly not the Scholzomat from a few years ago. At the end, we were able to take a couple of photos with him.

Weather was also fine (these shots are better than mine, lmao):

https://twitter.com/spdbawue/status/1439957068774100999

https://twitter.com/OHenning/status/1439961038661857281