🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

How stupid are the people of Germany?

[President Johnson]

Friedrich Merz just can't let it go. He just announced his candidacy for a Bundestag seat. The "problem": There is already an incumbent CDU politician, Patrick Sensburg, running for reelection in the district he seeks to represent. And Sensburg isn't just a backbencher. Furthermore, it's unclear what larger goal he has with the candidacy. It will definitely lead to a contested convention vote for the CDU candidacy in the district.

This comes after his "offer" to become Minister of Economics right after losing the CDU leadership to Armin Laschet in the current Merkel government, in which Peter Altmaier already holds the post. The ridiculous move back then was immediately rejected by Merkel and Laschet. The guy is a real trainwreck.

The CDU Hochsauerlandkreis will decide today who their candidate will be. Hopefully Merz loses again.

[President Johnson]

Trafficlight coalition under Chancellor Scholz would be my preferred model, but I'm kinda skeptical such a coalition can be formed no matter whether Greens or SPD are the "senior partner". Mainly because there are a number of programmatic splits between Free Democrats and SPD/Greens. For example, the FDP de facto ruled out any tax hikes while SPD/Greens both support tax increases for upper incomes. Success of such talks would probably succeed if Green and SPD moderates have the upper hand within their respective parties. Guys like me could reach an agreement with Christian Lindner, but it gets more complicated with the left-wingers. We'll have to see.

[President Johnson]

While the way Laschet got the nomination deserves a lot of criticism, it's kinda ridiculous the Union is losing far more support in polls with this move than much more serious (ongoing) scandals. Like the so called "mask affairs" in which rank and file politicans enrich themselves from a pandemic, Spahn's missmanagement and especially Andi Scheuer's embarrassing and total incompetence as Transportation Minister. The public is responding like Laschet is either some extreme ideologue or had a ton of personal baggage, when neither is the case. That this approach to the nomination appears worse than the issues above is also, at least partially, a result of inadequate press coverage. Laschet deserves criticism for the nominating process, but the hate he's getting is inappropriate in my opinion.

[President Johnson]

How has national polling looked for Freie Wähler? I assume they're relatively short of 5%, but I haven't seen any polls with them explicitly separated

Pretty much irrelevant at this point. They're among "others".

There was a new poll yesterday:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1385679985747374081

[President Johnson]

It would be pretty cool if the Annalena-Greens beat the Union in September.

But it would also mean that Germany once again would have a different government constellation than Austria.

It never had the same as we since WW2 (NSDAP).

Well, the most likely outcome is still Union/Greens under Chancellor Laschet. So finally there would be the same coalition constellation as in Austria.

The Green surge gives me Martin Schulz vibes, who started losing ground once he missed to put out more detailed policy plans and had three state elections going not well. Greens will definitely get a good result, but I'm not sure they can overtake the Union.

[President Johnson]

Forsa 20-26 April

Grüne 28%, CDU/CSU 22%, SPD 13%, FDP 12%, AfD 11%, Linke 7%, Sonstige 7%

Most of the Green growth was the result of the decline of the SPD and Linke, and most of the CDU/CSU decline benefits FDP and AfD, but the Greens are still taking votes from the CDU. Grüne+SPD+Linke=48%, one of the best recent sum

I don't know whether I should laugh or cry over this poll.

[President Johnson]

If - and that's still a big if - the Greens become the strongest party and can chose between coalition partners, I would definitely advise CDU/CSU not to enter a coalition as junior partner. Especially not if the only alternative is green-red-red because trafficlight either doesn't come together or doesn't have a majority. One way or the other, they would be forced to make so many concessions that they will lose all remaining conservative credentials while the Greens would be established as the main force of the political center. As a result, the Union would totally appear as obsolete. The AfD could benefit by picking up more conservative voters, especially in Eastern states. Or the CSU finally breaks apart from the Union to prevent AfD from becoming the major right of center political force. In that scenario, the Union, and particularly CDU, would follow the SPD's path down to a minor party.

[President Johnson]

Grüne and FDP = 37%
CDU/CSU and SPD = 37%

Exciting. Who would have expected this four years ago?

Well, I actually expected the SPD to drop to 15% in the aftermath of the 2017 election should we enter another "Grand" Coalition. That was one of the main reasons I voted against the agreement in the 2018 referendum.

The good and the bad news here is that support for political parties has become very volatile so that it can change under the right circumstances. But voters for now are done with Black-Red, which presents a stark contrast to 2013, when there was overwhelming support it following the Merkel II Union/FDP government with all the infighting.

[President Johnson]

Just for the record: Olaf Scholz has been confirmed as SPD chancellor candidate by an online party convention with 96% of the vote. He delivered a fiery speech, which was quite unusual for him, since he's usually a calm and moderate person. The main tenor of the speech was respect in society and making the 2020s a decade of modernization. Key policy proposals are a minimum wage increase to 12€/hour, more investments in housing and infrastructure and carbon neutrality by 2045. Furthermore, he wants to lower taxes for middle and lower incomes while increasing taxes on the wealthy.

Since support for parties is fluid, I think this election may be a make or break moment for the party. Scholz now needs to specify his policy proposals, sell them to the public and - as more people start paying attention - capitalize on his governing experience. He's easily the most qualified chancellor candidate, especially compared to Baerbock. If he can paint her as inexperienced and tie Laschet to the status-quo, there's a chance he'll end up winning. All he needs is cut off 5-8% from the Greens in current polls. What I know is that as SPD member I'll try my best to get him elected. He's the one best prepared to get the job done for renewal after the Merkel years.

[President Johnson]

Too unfortunate, Giffey was always one of my favorites. But she'll still run as the SPD's candidate for governing mayor of Berlin.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1394985714211856395

[President Johnson]

Söder making waves again and rules out joining a government coalition as junior partner. He says the Union should either have the next chancellor or move into opposition.

[President Johnson]

Some interesting poll numbers. The SPD's only chance is to rally behind Genosse Olaf and point to his credentials for the job while proposing concrete policies that a majority supports.

[President Johnson]

President Frank-Walter Steinmeiner today announced that he's available for a second five year term and intends to be a candidate in the February 2022 electoral college vote (which consists all members of the Bundestag and an equal number of electors chosen by the states).

Whether he'll get a second term will be decided after the September federal election. It's likely, but not a given. The SPD already backs him of course; FDP leader Christian Lindner also expressed his support for Steinmeier, as have rank and file members of the Left Party like Bodo Ramelow. Union and Greens have not committed to anything, though both Laschet and Baerbock said that Steinmeier is doing a good job. Merkel also spoke high of him, though she won't have a say in the matter.

Anyway, enthusiastically endorsed. He's the right person for the position and I'm proud to be represented by him.

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1398217748434632706

[President Johnson]

Steinmeier is a good guy and an able president. No doubt about that.

But if there really is a Black-Green/Green-Black government after the elections, the coalition partners could be tempted to elect one of their own instead. There are quite a few people who seem interested... Kramp-Karrenbauer, Göring-Eckardt, Özdemir...

Actually I think Laschet is more likely to get along with Steinmeier getting a second term. When it comes to the Greens, I feel like they would put identity politics ahead and want a woman to replace just for the sake of having one in that office.

Özdemir would be much better as successor to Winfried Kretschmann.

[President Johnson]

Something I've always wondered is why do the FDP never seem to get any direct mandates?  Do they not target the direct seats or are they just screwed by having a relatively evenly distributed vote base like our LolDems?

They don't have a specific bastion where it's likely to win a direct mandate. That's different with Die Linke and of course AfD and Greens. In past election cycles, a lot of local FDP chapters informally endorsed CDU candidates while asking for the second vote (which is for the party, while the first is for a local candidate).

[President Johnson]

Left in disarray after the poor results in Saxony-Anhalt yesterday: Former Left Party leader and husband of Sahra Wagenknecht, Oskar Lafontaine, officially withdrew the support for his own party in the next federal election. In a tumultuous membership vote, Lafontaine's intra-party opponent Thomas Lutze was - once again - placed on the top spot for the Saarland federal election list. Lutze and Lafontaine detest each other, and there are numerous allegations of document forgery etc. against Lutze by the Wagenknecht/Lafontaine wing of the party. Lafontaine also stated that Lutze represents the exact opposite of what he and his wife believe in, so we're just gonna see a further isolation of her wing within the party.

Albeit this will not influence the federal result significantly, it's the peak of the current turmoil within the Left Party and as they're dangerously close to the five percent threshold, such discussions really don't help in the fight for electoral success.

I wouldn't say the overall left or center-left is in disarray because of this result. Obviously a ton of SPD, Left and Green voters switched to the CDU as polls and the media indicated the election could be a tossup between CDU and AfD.

However, Wagenknecht gave a very good analysis in Anne Will's talkshow yesterday, that left-wing politics are more associated with wokeness, political correctness, academic elites and forced multiculturalism and not so much about improving the lives of average people. This pretty much is true, at least center-left and left-wing parties are more associated with the former than the latter, even if it's not always objectively true. This seems to be an international phenomena and also applies to the Democratic Party in the US or Labor in the UK.

[President Johnson]

Baerbock is currently in hot water for making "corrections" in her Curriculum Vitae on her website. She had to correct two items, one relating to her work as chief of staff to a member of the European Parliament. Remains to be seen how much it hurts, but press coverage on her has grown more critical in recent days and weeks. She was already criticized for not reporting payments of over 20k € in time from her tenure as party leader.

[President Johnson]

Sometimes I really don't get it anymore and it's quite frustrating. Baerbock having some issues with her CV is somehow a huge deal while CDU/CSU can get into one corruption scandal after another - whether it's the mask stuff, Amthor or Klöckner being bought and paid for by Nestle - a 500 million Euro waste with their stupid Ausländermaut (toll for foreigners) or the cross inaction on several key issues like rent and construction prices, climate and so on and they still gain points. And I'm not even a supporter of Baerbock and the Greens. If at least the SPD would benefit from that. It seems that the Union can get away with everything, while SPD and Greens lose support over having minor issues. Are people even paying attention?

[President Johnson]

If it continues by that rate, her downfall is even faster than Martin Schulz. In both cases, the media is also to blame for making their issues such a huge deal while the Union largely gets a free pass.

[President Johnson]

I hope Scholz really capitalises on everything he can - I actually think this election is a real chance for the SPD providing they keep the Greens down - hard when they fight different battles geography and demographics-wise.

Yes, as the election nears and more people pay attention what's at stake, I continue to be an optimist. If Scholz conducts himself like he did today in an ARD interview, he's on a good path. He was very energetic, made detailed policy proposals and stressed his experience to get big things done. However, it's still an uphill battle. I feel like this could be a make or break moment for the party.

[President Johnson]

It would actually be glorious for Die Linke to fall under 5% and returning to a five faction Bundestag. Of course, in an ideal world the AfD would also be out, but that's not going to happen. At least not in 2021. Less faction would generally make government formation easier.

Given the weakness of Die Linke, there's very likely not going to be an R2G majority, so trafficlight coalition would be the only real alternative to the CDU. However, I think this would be much easier to negotiate with the SPD and Olaf Scholz at helm rather than the Greens.

[President Johnson]

It would actually be glorious for Die Linke to fall under 5% and returning to a five faction Bundestag. Of course, in an ideal world the AfD would also be out, but that's not going to happen. At least not in 2021. Less faction would generally make government formation easier.

Given the weakness of Die Linke, there's very likely not going to be an R2G majority, so trafficlight coalition would be the only real alternative to the CDU. However, I think this would be much easier to negotiate with the SPD and Olaf Scholz at helm rather than the Greens.

Could the FDP justify supporting an SPD-led government?

Yes, the FDP is more flexible than they were 10-15 years ago. Over most recent years, it became clear that they actually want to govern and actually have some good ideas on innovation and education. If there's no alternative to a trafficlight coalition, why wouldn't they? Of course SPD and Greens would have to make concessions like no major tax increases, but that's doable in my opinion.

Personally, I think this would be the coalition that Germany needs now. It combines social safety, bold action on climate and innovation while the CDU/CSU, plagued with scandals and tired of actually doing something real, desperately needs to spend some time in the opposition. At the same time, this coalition would persue a reliable, pro-EU and pro-Western foreign policy.

[President Johnson]

Am i misunderstanding this, or did the FDP just say that while they would never tolerate Traffic Light under a Green PM, they would however do so under Scholz? 🤔

Kinda yes, although that's not official yet. I guess by announcing that in advance the least damage would be done to the party (compared to if potential coalition negotiations failed again due to the FDP).

For the record: The FDP ruled out a trafficlight coalition in Hesse after the 2018 elections under Green leadership, but was open under the SPD leadership. That became an issue after the final result was in doubt for some time as SPD and Greens were separated by just a few votes.

Obviously a Chancellor Scholz heading the government would be easier for the FDP since Scholz' economic policies are closer to them.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/derJamesJackson/status/1406917993351856130

Winnetou und Roter Olaf

Lmao, I didn't read about this, just that Genosse Olaf didn't know the current gas price (which the media is making some kind of story of).