Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[buritobr]

Is Gabriel Boric moderate like Michele Bachelet?
I saw he defeated a more leftist candidate in the primary.

[buritobr]

If Kast wins, we could make a parallel to France 1789 and 1848. People went to the streets, they were enthuasiastic, there was a revolution, a new constitution, but then... the hangover came and a Bonaparte rose to the power.
But maybe, comparing them to Kast would be offensive to the Bonapartes.

[buritobr]

EMOL is updating the results
https://www.emol.com/

[buritobr]

In Las Condes, Santiago, Chile's richest neighborhood after 50% of the polls proceeded

Kast 46.7%, Sichel 30.8%, Boric 12.3%

The right win landslides in Latin American wealthy neighborhoods

[buritobr]

Results in Vitacura, a high-income district in Santiago
Kast 51.20%, Sichel 34.26%, Boric 7.31%, Provoste 5.90%, Enríquez-Ominami 0.74%, Parisi 0.42%, Artés 0.18%

Results in La Pintana, a low-income district in Santiago
Boric 29.24%, Enríquez-Ominami 16.47%, Kast 16.46%, Provoste 13.79%, Parisi 13.44%, Sichel 8.37%, Artés 2.24%

https://www.emol.com/

In most of the countries, there is some polarization according to class, but in Chile we could see one of the highest levels of polarization.
While in North Atlantic countries the far-right is supported by a white low middle class, in Latin America, the richest people vote more easily to the far-right.

[buritobr]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-22/chile-peso-stocks-jump-as-right-wing-leads-presidential-race

"Chile Peso, Stocks Soar as Election Boosts Resurgent Right Wing"

Stock markets up more than 8%

Stock markets up? Not good news!

The Berlin stock market went up on January 30th 1933, when You Know Who became the chancellor. The São Paulo stock market went up on October 29th 2018, one day after Bolsonaro was elected.

[buritobr]

I find it interesting that, as the counting went on, Boric gained relative to Kast while Sichel gained relative to Provoste. I know it's probably not worth overinterpreting, but it might say something interesting about the different electoral coalitions behind the "old" and "new" lefts and rights, respectively.

It's all about Santiago. Santiago usually counts slower but before now it never really mattered because the result of the Metropolitan region was always almost identically to the nationwide total. The last time Santiago voted significantly different than the rest of the country was in the '60s when it was more right wing!

This is the first time ever in presidential elections where the results at 100% counted are meaningfully different than those at 5%.

Yeah. Alessandri won Santiago in 1970. Allende was elected because of the north.

[buritobr]

OK, Peru and Chile are different countries, but let's be a little more optimistic

There was also a very polarizing runoff in Peru.
In the following day after the first round in Peru, we though Fujimori would win.

[buritobr]

My forecast

Boric 50.3%, Kast 49.7%

[buritobr]

All the networks are covering how it's 40° at some polling places. Why do some countries have elections in the middle of summer/winter!

Because this countries want that the innauguration take place at the beggining of the year, so that all presidents have full years of administration

[buritobr]

Not exactly a good reason; next term starts at March 11th, almost three more months.

All the networks are covering how it's 40° at some polling places. Why do some countries have elections in the middle of summer/winter!

Because this countries want that the innauguration take place at the beggining of the year, so that all presidents have full years of administration

So, Chile has a very long lame duck period

[buritobr]

Lula sent the congratulations tweet to Boric

"Parabenizo o companheiro @gabrielboric por sua eleição para Presidente do Chile. Fico feliz por mais uma vitória de um candidato democrata e progressista na nossa América Latina, para a construção de um futuro melhor para todos."
https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1472710630016700418

Probably he is very happy because of this fresh air to the South American left

[buritobr]

The outfit Camila Vallejo was wearing in the cerimony is forbidden inside many government offices in Brazil, which don't allow above the knee outfits to work.
We have to update our dresscode. Brazil is warmer than Chile.
https://www.adnradio.cl/espectaculos/2022/01/21/ahi-quedaron-las-blusas-de-paula-daza-camila-vallejo-desato-locura-fashionista-con-su-look-de-ministra.html

[buritobr]

The runoff looks like to have happened a long time ago. And there is one more week of Piñera government.

[buritobr]

Reasons why people voted no on the referendum.

Disapprove of the Constituent Assembly's process 40%
Instability and uncertainty 35%
Plurinationalism 29%
A new constitution is unnecessary 24%



77% of Chileans still want a new constitution. Only 20% reject a new constitution. The level of support for a new constitution has not changed significantly since the start of the process.

I saw a discussion in the Twitter yesterday between Brazilians who watch international politics. One of them claimed that the constitution was defeated because of the "identitiy politics". Others claimed that the economic issues mattered more. We can see that the "identity politics" narrative is wrong, considering that only 29% answered the plurinationalism.