Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Enough to have a realistic shot at a parliamentary majority would be nice. Clearly AD in its current form falls significantly short of that.

Yep, AD has less than a third of the chamber of deputies and only 10% of the senate. With PS alone they still wouldn't reach the third, but with PPD would. This is all about appearances honestly, PS has a nice name and all the history with Allende (plus, they are the only ex-concertación party that still has meaningful youth grassroots and they tend to get along well with FA), but in practical terms, there isn't any meaningful political difference with PPD. In fact, until 2013 PS was arguably more centrist than PPD but all the third wayers have lost power in recent years (People like Camilo Escalona, Osvaldo Andrade, all of them are strongly opposed to PS participation in Boric Government but they don't have much power anymore).

PPD has an image problem in the sense that its seen as corrupt due to figures like Guido Guirardi and scandals from the concertación era, but a) AD purism is fairly childish and unsustainable, some of their mayorships already have scandals and b) they have no problem having freaking FRVS in the coalition, so honestly they have no real excuse, they are just being dumb. Even PR and PL (4 deputies each) shouldn't cause issues if AD analyzed the situation in a practical nonpurist way, PL was one of the founding members of FA and only one of the PR deputies is something other than a vanilla leftist.

Even if they don't wan anything with the old concertación, they should at least try to make amends with the ecologists. Their vote dispersion is singlehandedly the reason the Senate is tied and several seats in the chamber were lost.

[Velasco]

The point is that, in order to secure a majority in tje Chamber of Deputies, Gabriel Boric needs to build bridges beyond the old Concertación. On the one hand,  we have DA and the Greens. On the other hand  we have the DC and the independents. Looking at the composition of the parliament, it seems obvious to me the role of the Christian Democracy is pivotal. DC is needed to secure a majority in the Chamber of Deputies and a tie in the Senate, alongside the independents.

 Apparently PS, PPD and others woud like to apply for the government coalition, but that's not the case of the DC (except maybe for the progressive faction?). I think the DC is an interesting case for different reasons, being a traditional party with a declining base that retains some influence. I would like that you rlaborate on the different factions, as well on the social and economic stances they support. Also, in case AD eas willing to accept the PS and the PPD, which allies are left for the DC? What is the role of the party in the Constituent Assembly?

The Rivera comparison is apt in some ways. It's particularly ironic since within the party we were rather mindful of the Ciudadanos debacle and keen not to repeat it, but the lesson some people drew from it wasn't that Rivera made a mistake to go so far to the right, but rather than Ciudadanos made a mistake of not having a clear enough identity. And now, of course, the party has chosen to put the "right" ahead of "liberal" in terms of its identity, embracing the Vox equivalent (some, of course, did it with alarming enthusiasm, like Senator-elect and aspiring "unity" figure Cruz-Coke).

* Which is why, on a personal note, I resigned my party membership a few weeks ago. Have felt rather relaxed since then.

In the case of Ciudadanos, I think going too far to the right and lacking a clear identity are not mutually exclusive. Actually, the analysis is correct. Ciudadanos never developed a clear identity, other than being the most vocal opponent to the Catalan nationalists. The point is that turn to the right not only conflicted with the alleged liberal identity; it was also perceived as a purely tactical move. In other words: marketing and opinion polls prevailed over the construction of a solid identity

Anyway Evopoli is a Chilean party with a different history and I appreciate your insight very much

[kaoras]

The point is that, in order to secure a majority in tje Chamber of Deputies, Gabriel Boric needs to build bridges beyond the old Concertación. On the one hand,  we have DA and the Greens. On the other hand  we have the DC and the independents. Looking at the composition of the parliament, it seems obvious to me the role of the Christian Democracy is pivotal. DC is needed to secure a majority in the Chamber of Deputies and a tie in the Senate, alongside the independents.

 Apparently PS, PPD and others woud like to apply for the government coalition, but that's not the case of the DC (except maybe for the progressive faction?). I think the DC is an interesting case for different reasons, being a traditional party with a declining base that retains some influence. I would like that you rlaborate on the different factions, as well on the social and economic stances they support. Also, in case AD eas willing to accept the PS and the PPD, which allies are left for the DC? What is the role of the party in the Constituent Assembly?

The progressive DC faction is basically indistinguishable from mainstream ex-concertación center-left. It was often said that Provoste could have easily been on PS and nobody would have been an eye. They have the problem that many of its members shift to the right once they get into positions of power within the party. I remember all the way back in 2013 that Carolina Goic was considered a progressive, then in 2017 she launched his infamous presidential bid (el camino propio, so wanted by the conservative wing). Chahín also used to be considered progressive, and Ximena Rincón seem to be on the same trayectory, though in the latter case seems to be internal maneuvering, she still votes like a PPD. Counting Rincón, the progressive has 4/5 senators, but only 2/8 deputies.

The conservative faction is more "economically technocratic" (as in, pro status quo mostly) and socially conservative, opposing abortion, euthanasia, etc. They constantly complain that the DC should move to the right to capture the moderate voters it lost by differentiating itself, cutting deals with the right, opposing more leftist policies, etc. But they still don't seem too eager to jump ship and formally ally with the right, most of the people that wanted that have left the party (Soledad Alvear, Mariana Aylwin,

DC in the constituent convention has only one member, Fuad Chahín, that has allied with the non-PS ex concertación constituents (a grand total of 8 people) int the Colectivo del Apruebo that usually cut deals with both RN-EVOPOLI and FA-PS.

The future of the DC is unclear right now. Most of the party feel like they are in a terminal crisis and say that they need a clear identity with new ideas. Almost nobody elaborates on what those ideas are. The conservative faction says that the answer for the identity problem is basically to annoy the left as much as possible by playing moderate heroes, which is also the reason that PS and company don't want anything to do with them if possible. I think the problem is that there is a significant market for "technocratic nice centrist good governance" but the kind of people that want that tend to be upper middle classes that are also socially liberal. Allying with, say, RN and EVOPOLI would inevitably break the party, the progressive faction would never accept that, but maybe long term that is the only solution? Who knows.

[kaoras]

Atacama


_{M=Women, H=Men}

Atacama is part of Norte Chico along with Coquimbo. The differentiation is purely geographical (is literally called that way because both regions are thinner) and at a glance you would think it has more in common with Antofagasta, being both mining regions. However, their vote pattern IS closer to Coquimbo, which is very curious. Boric obliterated Kast among almost all age groups, getting to an incredible 80% among women under 30 years. Kast's stances on women's issues went down like poison among the youth in this leftist stronghold.



Again, a very boring map, Boric swept the region with 65% of the vote, his best result nationwide. The regional capital Copiapó was Boric's lowest score but he still got 61,7%. He got 60,98% in Copiapó proper and did slightly better in its small and poorer suburbs like Paipote (64,8%) and Palomar (64,5%).

The small towns of the region delivered the best results nationwide for Boric, often breaking 70%. The mining towns of Diego de Almagro (75,4%) once again were the most leftist area of the country after being won by Parisi in the first round with 33%. Boric got 74,7% in Diego de Almagro proper and 77% in El Salvador. Boric also got 73,4% in neighboring Chañaral, a result that even beat Bachelet % in 2013. He was also particularly strong in the Huasco province (Provoste got over 40% in the first round here), getting 74% in Freirina, 72,6% in Huasco and 67% in Provoste’s hometown of Vallenar. Alto del Carmen, where almost half of the population is Diaguita, went 63,4% for Boric.

Atacama had also the largest swing to the left with 21%, “snapping back” after voting to the right of the country in 2017, an ignominy that not even Antofagasta attempted. Will Atacama pull a Magallanes (flirting with the right once and then going back to the left even harder than before)?  Or was Kast simply too much for an area with so much tradition. We will know for sure in a few cycles but Atacama consistency downballot should give hope to the left.  Turnout jumped almost 4 points to 48%

[kaoras]

Coquimbo



Coquimbo is structurally the most left-wing region of the country and I already talked about it extensively in my first round breakdown. Just like Atacama, here is the rurals that are more left-wing than the big conurbation of La Serena-Coquimbo. Women under 30 gave 81% of the vote to Boric, the most lopsided result for an age group in all the country. The gender gap disappears gradually until reversing with those over 70. In Chile, until 10 years ago, the normal was that men were more leftwing than women, so maybe it is a vestige of that.



Another Boric sweep, the southern you get in the region the better the Boric results are, getting 62% in Elqui province, 64% in Limarí and 67% in Choapa, the southernmost province (each one corresponds to a river valley). He won more than 60% in every comuna save for Rio Hurtado, a fully rural agricultural and pastoral comuna in Limarí where Boric got 56,5%. His best result was in the mining town of Andacollo (74,3%) which is dominated by small and artisanal mining, pirquineros. He also crossed 70% in Illapel the biggest town of Choapa. In the comunas that Parisi won in the first round, Punitaqui, Salamanca and Combarbalá, Boric got around two-thirds of the vote.

Boric brought back to the fold the usually left-leaning La Serena and Coquimbo, the big cities of the region that in 2017 backed Piñera decisively. This conurbation is more segregated socioeconomically which serves us well to see the socioeconomic factor in urban areas. In La Serena, the regional capital, Boric got 60,38%. However, in the working-class suburb “Las Compañías” to the north of the city, Boric got 72%, while in the rest of La Serena he scored only 57%. The same happened in Coquimbo, he reached 67% in Tierras Blancas, an area that concentrates lower middle class (C3-D) strata and 61% in the rest of Coquimbo (plus 67% in the fishing town of Tongoy)

In Las Compañías, turnout surged 12% from 2017, swinging 22% for Boric (Piñera had won them with 50,5%, though still worse than the rest of the city). Tierras Blancas is similar, it swung 16% to the left (Piñera 51% in 2017) with turnout up 8% to 54%, actually higher than the rest of Coquimbo (49,65%, though this phenomenon had already happened in 2017). Parisi had been very strong in both, 30% in Las Compañías (27% Boric, 15% Kast) and 24% in Tierras Blancas (27% Boric, 18% Kast)

 

Coquimbo swung 14% to the left, mainly fueled by La Serena-Coquimbo. Turnout increased 7% to 50,5%. The vote share of the right went from 32% in the first round to only 36,7% in the runoff, drowned by new voters and the Parisi electorate breaking hard for the left.

[kaoras]

FA wants a goverment a la Portuguesa.

Sebastián Depolo says:

“One of the models that we look at and that we discuss in the Frente Amplio is that of Portugal. The Portuguese case inspires us because it was a political innovation in Europe and in the world. Not to copy and paste, because it is not the same context or experience, but to seek pragmatic and flexible governance formulas. In Portugal, the Executive is in charge of the Socialist Party, and in Chile, of Apruebo Dignidad, which is the governing coalition, and Gabriel Boric, the president-elect, chooses his cabinet with autonomy and freedom. At the same time, we need an agreement in Parliament like Portugal so that the political and social forces support the government. The distinction we make is that these forces do not necessarily have to bear the political responsibility of the government, but they can make available certain political and technical cadres to have a good cabinet, which gives a good government that allows stability and carry out parliamentary agreements. It is not a blank check, it is not unconditional support "

FA is gonna FA, this will blow up in their faces very soon.

Also, Kast resigned to the leadership of the Republican Party, he says that fresh leadership is needed for the work in congress. (I guess he doesn't want to deal with the loonies he brought) . He also said that he is going to fight the left in their strongholds with his ideas and social action and blablabla.

[Velasco]

First round: pluralities
Second round: majorities

(click right button to enlarge)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Elections for the next six-month leadership of the CC went on all day yesterday without any resolution. The main candidate of the FA-PS bloc, scientist and environmental activist Cristina Dorador (Movimientos Sociales Ciudadanos-Antofagasta), barely failed to reach a majority and bowed out of the race. The other names that have been coming up don’t inspire an extreme amount of confidence but we’ll see where things go in later rounds.

[kaoras]

Odontologist and epidemiologist Maria Elisa Quinteros has been elected as the new president of the Constitutional Convention with exactly the 78 votes needed and after 9 rounds. The whole process was total chaos and somewhat amusing to narrate but I have been very busy lately (The regional breakdowns will come back, don't worry!) Now they will vote for the vicepresident.

Now, this is actually sad. The convention had seen a bump in their poll standing lately thanks to the start of the debate around the contents of the new constitution. They shot themselves on the foot with this show.

[Хahar 🤔]

Any relation to Rabindranath Quinteros?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Any relation to Rabindranath Quinteros?

None as far as I’m aware.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Odontologist and epidemiologist Maria Elisa Quinteros has been elected as the new president of the Constitutional Convention with exactly the 78 votes needed and after 9 rounds. The whole process was total chaos and somewhat amusing to narrate but I have been very busy lately (The regional breakdowns will come back, don't worry!) Now they will vote for the vicepresident.

Now, this is actually sad. The convention had seen a bump in their poll standing lately thanks to the start of the debate around the contents of the new constitution. They shot themselves on the foot with this show.

I’ve found very little about Quinteros and nothing about Gaspar Domínguez (besides the fact that he’s a gay rural doctor from INN), with most people I’ve seen/talked to saying some variation “eh I guess she seems fine”. I know one of the key votes for her was a member of RN who liked her work on the ethics committee, which I suppose bodes well. Do you have any insight?

[kaoras]

Odontologist and epidemiologist Maria Elisa Quinteros has been elected as the new president of the Constitutional Convention with exactly the 78 votes needed and after 9 rounds. The whole process was total chaos and somewhat amusing to narrate but I have been very busy lately (The regional breakdowns will come back, don't worry!) Now they will vote for the vicepresident.

Now, this is actually sad. The convention had seen a bump in their poll standing lately thanks to the start of the debate around the contents of the new constitution. They shot themselves on the foot with this show.

I’ve found very little about Quinteros and nothing about Gaspar Domínguez (besides the fact that he’s a gay rural doctor from INN), with most people I’ve seen/talked to saying some variation “eh I guess she seems fine”. I know one of the key votes for her was a member of RN who liked her work on the ethics committee, which I suppose bodes well. Do you have any insight?

Well, Gaspar Dominguez is also a LGBT activist. Outside that I know as much as you do. All the "big names" fell off during the voting chaos.

The adjunct vicepresidencies are Amaya Álvez (Frente Amplio), Tomás Laibe (Colectivo Socialista), Bárbara Sepúlveda (Chile Digno), Lidia González (pueblo yagán) and Natividad Llanquileo (pueblo mapuche). There are 2 vicepresidencies still to be filled, and one probably by Monckeberg (RN)

[kaoras]

Valparaíso

Valparaíso has historically been right leaning thanks to the right dominance of the coastal towns and Valparaíso metro area, which drags the leftwing wing strongholds in the Petorca, La Ligua and Aconcagua valleys in the interior. This started to change with the irruption of FA, which has turned Gran Valparaíso into its biggest stronghold. Beatriz Sánchez won Valparaíso proper in 2017 and Guillier carried it on the runoff despite losing badly nationwide. FA also won control of the mayorship of Valparaíso in 2017 and added Villa Alemana and Quilpué in 2021.



The age breakdown shows that young men are actually more left-wing, though it could be statistical noise since the rest of the groups don’t show any significant gender gap. As usual, Boric obliterated Kast among those under 30 and also dominated every group save for those over 70. Boric won all but 4 of the comunas of Valparaíso, losing the fancy and rich summer towns of Algarrobo, Santo Domingo and Zapallar and the rich suburb of Concón in Valparaiso metro. This map is actually exactly the same map as Bachelet in 2013, having achieved similar percentages (59,3% Boric, 61% Bachelet), though they did have different strengths.



Boric's strongest results were in the Petorca and La Ligua river valleys, where he won over 2/3 of the vote, and he also got ~60% in the Aconcagua valley. Parisi had been very strong in these areas and most of its vote flowed to Boric, with the jump in turnout doing the rest. His best results were on Petorca itself  (72,86%), which suffers heavily from persistent drought due to climate change and private abuse of water sources and Llay Llay (70,8%), another agricultural comuna near the border with the Metropolitan Region. Kast only breaked 40% (barely) in the mini urban conurbation of the Aconcagua composed of San Felipe, Los Andes and Santa María.

 _{Open the images to enlarge, ABC1= richer, E= poorer}

Boric actually did significantly worse in these valles transversales than Bachelet, who had no trouble getting well over 70%, but ran about even in the coastal towns and beat her in Gran Valparaíso, (Valparaíso, Viña del Mar, Villa Alemana, Quilpué, Concón), getting the best results ever for the left in all the metro area save for Concón. In Valparaíso proper, Boric won 65,7% of the vote. He got over 67% in the eastern (Barón) and central parts (El Puerto), with a lower result in Playa Ancha (61%) in the eastern area which is slightly richer. Viña del mar was very polarized among socioeconomic lines: The working class and poor areas of Miraflores and Forestal gave over 60% to Boric while the extremely rich Reñaca Bajo gave Kast 75%. Overall Boric got 54,8% in the “garden city”. In Concón, a comuna that has tripled its population in 30 years thanks to the arrival of rich people and expensive real estate development, Kast won with 54,5%, which was actually lower than the sume of the right in the first round  (56,7%). Kast actually added a thousand new votes, but the mobilization in favor of Boric was bigger.  The other metro area results were Villa Alemana (56,7%) and Quilpué (57,9%), both for Boric.

Finally, Boric broke 70% in the industrial port of San Antonio, which has very combative trade unions and is side by side to the rich coastal summer holiday location of Santo Domingo (Kast 58%).

_{I haven't really been able to tell why Valparaíso used to be rightwing nor why it swung so hard to the FA and the left in general recently, I will keep digging on that}

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Valparaíso is also the only region to elect an FA governor in the most recent/inaugural gubernatorial elections (Rodrigo Mundaca).

[kaoras]

Valparaíso is also the only region to elect an FA governor in the most recent/inaugural gubernatorial elections (Rodrigo Mundaca).

Tarapacá also has a FA governor (yes, of all the other regions, it wasn't something like Magallanes, it was freaking Tarapacá).

BTW, the next one is Santiago and will probably be quite large, though hopefully, it won't take as long as this one. But the spoiler would basically be #trends are not real (kinda)

[kaoras]

The Gran Santiago was the epicenter of Boric victory. He got the best result ever for the left in the metropolitan region with 60,3%, beating Bachelet’s 59% in 2013. Boric won all but 7 comunas, 6 of them in the Barrio Alto and rural and agricultural San Pedro in the southwestern corner. Boric dominated every age group save for voters over 70, breaking seventy percent among the youth. The gender gap was really small. Kast actually did worse here percentage-wise than the right as a whole in the first round, going down from 40,36% (Kast+Sichel) to 39,67%.



In the city itself, there was a very linear relationship between the socioeconomic level of each comuna and support for the left, with Boric being strongest in the poor peripheric comunas of south and northwest Santiago and losing the rich northeast (El Barrio Alto). Boric was also extremely strong in the middle-class suburbs but not that much in the bobo areas, ironically. (He still won them handily though). Boric's best results were Lo Espejo (73,1%) and La Pintana (72,9%), the most impoverished comunas of the capital. The poblaciones of those comunas suffered harshly during the dictatorship, and Lo Espejo was also the place where Kast was expelled by neighbors after trying to make a campaign act in the población José Maria Caro. According to some articles the Kast campaign basically gave up on trying to win Santiago’s poor voters after that incident. Boric also broke 70% in Pedro Aguirre Cerda, San Joaquín, La Granja, Cerro Navia, Renca and Puente Alto. Save for Puente Alto, all those are low income comunas, with the lowest HDI numbers and higher poverty. Puente Alto is usually regarded as middle class but has some very poor areas such as Bajos de Mena. In Bajos de Mena, Boric got 76,8% of the vote. Puente Alto was also one of the areas most affected by the lack of public transportation on election day and its seems that there was a widespread feeling that the government didn’t want them to vote* which appear to have motivated them to vote despite having to wait up to 3 hours for a bus.

Key to Boric succes where his landslides in the populous middle class suburbs. While Boric usually ran very slightly behind Bachelet in the poor comunas mentioned above, he did way better among the middle classes. Besides Puente Alto, he got around 2/3 of the vote in Maipú (most populous comuna of Chile), La Florida, Peñalolen and San Bernardo. He also got around mid 60’s in mixed comunas with low and middle income voters like Recoleta, Macul, Estación Central and so on. Boric also swept the old “swing” areas of the capital, the few comunas outside of the Barrio Alto that used to vote for the right when they won nationwide, such as the already mentioned San Bernardo (64,5%), La Cisterna (60,5%), Cerrillos (63,5) and Independencia (61,2%). Notice how all of them voted significantly to the left of the country. In 2009 (the Piñera-Frei election) for example, they all voted right around the national mean with La Cisterna being even noticeablely more rightwing.



Now, for the “bohemian” highly educated upper middle class, Boric's performance was actually mixed. Santiago Centro, the (in)famous Ñuñoa and Providencia have moved pretty hard to the left. If in 2009 they were all more rightwing than the country, (Providencia by 14 points), now Santiago (Boric 60,3%) and Ñuñoa (59,6%) are more leftwing while Providencia right wing lean was cut in half to 7 points, with Kast carrying it with only 51,7%. Kast also won very narrowly in La Reina with only 50,7%, but that is actually almost the same as in 2009. In the rest of the Barrio Alto, Boric actually did worse than Frei 2009 with the exception of very slight improvements in Las Condes and Colina. The Barrio Alto had been trending even harder to the right since in the last decade the left was perceived as more radical and willing to change the economic model. The trend at least stopped this year with Boric doing better than Guillier. Is also worth noticing that in all these comunas Kast percentage was actually lower than the sum of Kast+Sichel in the first round. For example, the right went from 76,9 to 73,5 in Las Condes and from 82% to 79% in Lo Barnechea. This all came down to turnout since Kast improved in raw numbers. Kast's underperformance was concentrated in these high income areas (it also happened in Concón for example), since he at least managed to barely improve the first round results in the middle class and poor areas.

^{*Among the comunas that Boric won, Ñuñoa was actually his worst result within the Gran Santiago, which is very funny considering all the discourse that emerged after the first round}

In the rural areas of the metropolitan region and the small cities outside the Gran Santiago, it was a Boric sweep with a few exceptions. Kast won Colina with 59%, but that comuna is divided between the town of Colina itself and the uber rich exurb of Chicureo which is closer to the Barrio Alto. In Colina, Kast won narrowly with 50,3%, but in Chicureo he got 81,65%. Kast also won San Pedro, a small agricultural comuna in the western tip of the region with 57%. Boric got solid victories in all the small cities such as Buin, Melipilla, Talagante and even in Kast hometown of Paine where Boric got 54,6%.

Boric in total netted 700.000 votes out of the Metropolitan region, and turnout was key to his victory. Since the introduction of voluntary voting, turnout in the Great Santiago has had a huge class bias. In the second round of 2017, 66% of registered voters voted in Las Condes and Lo Barnechea but only 37% in La Pintana and 43% in Puente Alto. This huge gap is what allowed the right to stay alive in the capital. However, in this election the gap narrowed significantly. Turnout was 58,4%, even higher than in the plebiscite and 10% higher than in the first round (though it should be noted that turnout there was already higher than in the 2017 runoff in most of the comunas, likely an effect of the social uprising).The turnout surge was particularly strong in the poor and middle class areas while in the Barrio Alto the increase was much more muted. Low-income comunas had a turnout slightly above of 50% while it reached over 60% in middle-class zones, almost matching the Barrio Alto.



The effect was huge, and coupled with the enormous margins Boric got, there was no coming back for Kast. To illustrate this point, in 2017, Puente Alto and Las Condes casted a similar amount of votes (167k in the former vs 166k in the later), with Guillier netting a 10k margin from Puente Alto while Piñera got a 100k advantage out of Las Condes. Now, in Puente Alto 233.521 people voted and gave Boric a 94k margin. In Las Condes there were 183.947 votes cast with Kast netting 84k. A similar tale happened all over the city.

If this trend continues (a big if) the right is in huge trouble at the national level given Santiago's size relative to the country. They were also almost erased of the municipal councils of most of the Gran Santiago in the May elections and Piñera margins over Guillier in 2017 were flimsier than those of 2009 almost everywhere but in the Barrio Alto. They can take solace in the fact that Kast was a particularly awful fit for the Gran Santiago, but they can not afford to have the Metropolitan Region become a left-wing stronghold.

[kaoras]

Related to Santiago, here are two videos that captured the mood of the election day.

Woman from Puente Alto talks about the public transport problems:
https://twitter.com/Televisivamente/status/1472653847122231301

The government's strategies are horrible (...) All the people of Puente Alto had to wait like 3 hours to vote because there wasn’t public transportation. I waited for 2 hours (...)  and for the people of Bajos de Mena there wasn’t any transportation. And on TV the minister shamelessly lied saying that everything was normal. These are strategies of the right, of the fachos that have never cared about poor and working people. This is a mockery, a mockery! Because those weones don’t want to recognize (...) that today the people was going to say 1 (Boric number on the ballot)

2 women celebrate Boric victory in Las Condes:
https://twitter.com/biobio/status/1472728995133214720

Education and healthcare have to be a right for everyone, not something to be paid for. I have education and healthcare, but I think about other people and I’m not greedy. And if that is being a communist, I’M A COMMUNIST.

[kaoras]

O’Higgins

O’Higgins has been a left-leaning region since the return of democracy, only voting for the right in 2017, when Guillier was stomped in both the urban and rural areas. Agriculture, Cattle-Raising and Forestry represents 36% of the regional GDP, the highest proportion in all the country (though Forestry itself is really small)



Many of the poor rural zones of the center-south were #trending left until 2017, with Frei 2009 matching or beating Lagos 2000 performance. This trend has stopped and reversed, and in O’Higgins we will find some rural comunas where Boric underperformed both first round and past elections, a phenomenon that happens both in all the center-couth. O’Higgins had a very pronounced age gap, while the gender gap was all over the place.

Boric nearly swept the region and showed strength in the major cities, which had huge left swings compared to 2017. Regional capital Rancagua swung 17% for Boric to 59,6%. Machalí, part of the conurbation and home to El Teniente CODELCO copper mine, but also to many rich neighborhoods, went 55% for Boric (15% swing from 2017). Similar to other high-income areas, Kast barely improved the right first round results by 1,5% in Machalí.



Boric strength was concentrated in the center of the region and in the comunas near Rancagua that he won in the first round. He broke 60% in Codegua, Doñihue, Graneros, Mostazal, Peumo and Rengo. These comunas are more urban and have a higher proportion of people employed in industry and services. Kast's best results, on other hand, were in the west (though not in the coast). He narrowly won La Estrella (52%), Lolol (52,2%) and Chepica (51,1%). All these comunas were won by Frei in 2009 and Boric also barely improved the left first round results, a situation that was replicated in other zones where Provoste usually matched or beat Boric such as Pumanque, Palmilla (won by Provoste) and Litueche. A common trend here is that these are very heavily agricultural and more rural than the rest of the region. Boric was bad fit for this sociodemographic profile, and his proposals to eliminate “Rodeo” could have caused backlash, along with the usual right terror campaigns (some people claim that they told the farmers that the communists were going to expropriate their lands and give it to venezuelans, lol).

Turnout jumped 8% to 55%, replicated both in urban and rural areas.

[kaoras]

Boric named his cabinet.



Among the most relevant announcements: Izkia Siches in the Interior Ministry (first woman to held the post), Central Bank President Mario Marcel (close to PS) in Hacienda (in charge of the economy), Giorgio Jackson (RD), as SEGEGOB (relationship with Congress), Camila Vallejos (PC) as government spokeswoman.

Boric decided to include the PS-PPD-PR-PL bloc, often called "Socialismo Demócratico"*, all of them will have representation in the cabinet and will be part of the "Comite Político", the core committee that decides the route of the government.
_{*though I'm not sure if PL adheres to that denomination lol}

PS will have former deputy Maya Fernandez in Defense, senator Carlos Montes on Housing plus Marcel in Hacienda, and Antonia Urreloja in international relations (the latter two are independents close to the party). PPD will have Jeannette Vega in Social Development, PR deputy Marcela Hernando in Mining* and PL Juan Carlos García in Public Works.
_{*the radicals always held this ministry during the concertación era, some traditions die hard}

Overall, PC will have 3 minsitries (Spokeswoman, Labour, Science), RD 3 (SEGEGOB, Education, Culture), CS 3 (Economy, Women, Energy), Comunes 1 (National Assets), FREVS 1 (Agriculture), plus the already mentioned.

With this move, the government base in congress expands to 65 deputies (37 AD + 28 of Socialismo Democratico) and 19 senators (5 AD + 13 SD + Fabiola Campillai that will caucus with AD), much more manageable numbers for Boric.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Big bet on SRA IKZIA SICHES. Love my campaign management queen and they’re obviously gearing up to run her in 2025, but is she ready to deal with *gestures at Araucanía*?

[kaoras]

Big bet on SRA IKZIA SICHES. Love my campaign management queen and they’re obviously gearing up to run her in 2025, but is she ready to deal with *gestures at Araucanía*?

Well, they are going to split the Ministry and create a new Ministry of Public Security like in a month (law was already approved), so she won't have to deal with that. But yeah, honestly I don't know if Boric government overall will be able to deal with Araucanía

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Big bet on SRA IKZIA SICHES. Love my campaign management queen and they’re obviously gearing up to run her in 2025, but is she ready to deal with *gestures at Araucanía*?

Well, they are going to split the Ministry and create a new Ministry of Public Security like in a month (law was already approved), so she won't have to deal with that. But yeah, honestly I don't know if Boric government overall will be able to deal with Araucanía

I hadn’t heard about that! What will Interior do then, be de facto Vice President? My understanding was that the portfolio was mostly public security.

[kaoras]

Big bet on SRA IKZIA SICHES. Love my campaign management queen and they’re obviously gearing up to run her in 2025, but is she ready to deal with *gestures at Araucanía*?

Well, they are going to split the Ministry and create a new Ministry of Public Security like in a month (law was already approved), so she won't have to deal with that. But yeah, honestly I don't know if Boric government overall will be able to deal with Araucanía

I hadn’t heard about that! What will Interior do then, be de facto Vice President? My understanding was that the portfolio was mostly public security.

Yep, it will be left with inmigrant and nationalization issues, electoral service, and local government administration (many layers of the hyper-centralized Chilean administration). Though the latter will be likely removed by the new constitution. The convention already approved that Chile will be a "regional state" with "autonomous regions, communes, insular territories, indigenous territorial autonomies, and special territories" (similar to Spain), so most likely the presidential delegates will dissapear.

[buritobr]

The outfit Camila Vallejo was wearing in the cerimony is forbidden inside many government offices in Brazil, which don't allow above the knee outfits to work.
We have to update our dresscode. Brazil is warmer than Chile.
https://www.adnradio.cl/espectaculos/2022/01/21/ahi-quedaron-las-blusas-de-paula-daza-camila-vallejo-desato-locura-fashionista-con-su-look-de-ministra.html