Senator Gillibrand

[Sam Spade]

A resurrection of Moynihan would be nice.

^

[Sam Spade]

Ted will be dead soon anyway. He can't bully no one no more.

He's already trying to get his wife his Senate seat in MA.  So that statement is not exactly accurate.

[Sam Spade]

Ted will be dead soon anyway. He can't bully no one no more.

He's already trying to get his wife his Senate seat in MA.  So that statement is not exactly accurate.

And he has a lot of connections to cause pain or pleasure for other politicians, built up over the years...

And there's always Barack and the other Kennedy's to carry out his political will.  If anything, that could make him more threatening.

Here's the problem for Barack/Kennedys/Bloomberg...

In New York:

Sheldon Silver>Barack/Kennedys/Bloomberg

[Sam Spade]

That can't exactly be right, otherwise why would Caroline still be trying?

Bloomberg is still trying to gain hegemony over Silver.  Doesn't mean that he'll ever succeed (or come close).

Anyway, that's not the main point, this is:  Silver can make Paterson's life a living hell if he wants to.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting. I had long counted Kennedy out (and like, I said when it was 60% favoring Kennedy on inTrade, I was SO tempted to throw down 300 dollars against her... I'm still tempted now that it's 50%), and I have heard that Silver was the "most powerful man in New York politics" but I never quite heard him described as you did.

The way NY government is set up, Silver can essentially stop (or change) anything Paterson might want to push through.  Yes, budgets too.

The Senate Majority Leader and the Assembly Majority Leader choose which bills are heard and when.  If they want your legislation to die, it will never be voted on, and there ain't a damn thing you can do about it.  That's what happened with "congestion pricing" (although it would have gotten defeated anyway).

In other words, Silver could essentially make Paterson appear incompetent while still getting everything Silver wanted.  And probably drive his approval ratings in the gutter too, considering how bad the economy is going to be up here (yes, that could happen anyway).

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Bloomberg always chooses the wrong horse.  Most people here don't realize that.

[Sam Spade]

What are some other times?

I'm still an amateur at NY politics (but probably get it far more than I do CA politics)

The third term.  (you just wait and see, if he gets it)

Basically, all of the show-offy crap he did playing around with the 3rd party run in order to get attention.  That's backing the wrong horse because he failed to pay close attention running the city.

Backing the State Senate Republicans in this election.

Backing a stalking-horse to try and primary Sheldon Silver.

Need I go further...

[Sam Spade]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.

How quickly do you want Obama to lose his "political capital"? 

If it's close, Obama donates a TV ad or radio ad.

[Sam Spade]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.

How quickly do you want Obama to lose his "political capital"? 

If it's close, Obama donates a TV ad or radio ad.

He spent some on Oregon and it paid off with Merkley.  It all depends on how carefully and skillfully he deploys it.

And that was likely the difference in that race. 

Can't agree with that - i.e. I doubt it was the difference.  The polling was pretty clear on this race.  Smith hadn't led in any poll released since mid-September (and the only tie was in Rasmussen).

I mean, Obama's commercial may have been worth a point or two (maximum), but a decisive difference - nope.  In fact, I don't mean to potentially throw out an opposite conclusion, but it looks to me like Merkley underperformed the polling.

I'm willing to be convinced if MW08 tells me otherwise - he has fairly decent sources up there.

[Sam Spade]

Randi Weingarten would be an interesting outside-the-box pick: union leader, education leader, gay, women

She shares the "annoying" tendency with Caroline.  She'd also underperform generic NY Democrat, but she wouldn't be close to losing.

[Sam Spade]

Randi Weingarten would be an interesting outside-the-box pick: union leader, education leader, gay, women

She shares the "annoying" tendency with Caroline.  She'd also underperform generic NY Democrat, but she wouldn't be close to losing.

She could be primaried easily if her fundraising skills aren't up to scratch.

But I bet every politically-connected gay person with money in the country would give a few bucks.  And that Union thing has something going for her.

Oh, she'll raise the money, no doubt, but remember she's a NYCite. 

In NY, too much control by NYCers tend to make suburbanites and upstaters a bit angry.  Don't make the mistake of thinking that divide has gone away because of the last 10 years or so or that it won't be exploited in the future.

[Sam Spade]

Gillibrand would win barring scandal or a worse local economic situation than what I think will happen (i.e. in other words - it would be a long shot).

That House seat?  I want to see the candidates first, but I tend to ascribe to the "Al" theory of special elections.  It is a marginal, to put it mildly.

[Sam Spade]

cinyc is right - Dicker usually has the goods on NY state politics intrigue.

Otherwise, trusting what the Post *reports* is indeed a risky proposition.

We'll see.  Should only be a couple of days now before we know the correct answer.  Of course, I divined it was Caroline at the beginning of the year, fwiw. 

[Sam Spade]

I would be pretty satisfied with a pro-gun Senator who voted against the bailout.  Of course, she will get a primary challenge - bet on it.

Verily - the NY State Assembly Majority Leader is Sheldon Silver, who is certainly not from this area.  I think, as noted before on this thread, that there's only one Dem state assembly member and no Dem state senators from this area.  In other words, there really isn't much of a Dem bench here.  Of course, maybe there will be a nasty primary battle or something with all the Republicans who will run.  The CD is part of Dutchess, extends around Albany and goes up to the Adirondacks.

Btw, I should mention this since I didn't before - it seems plainly obvious to me that Paterson was going to pick Kennedy before TSHTF.  Makes the denial ultra-sweet in my view.

[Sam Spade]

I would be pretty satisfied with a pro-gun Senator who voted against the bailout.  Of course, she will get a primary challenge - bet on it.

Verily - the NY State Assembly Majority Leader is Sheldon Silver, who is certainly not from this area.  I think, as noted before on this thread, that there's only one Dem state assembly member and no Dem state senators from this area.  In other words, there really isn't much of a Dem bench here.  Of course, maybe there will be a nasty primary battle or something with all the Republicans who will run.  The CD is part of Dutchess, extends around Albany and goes up to the Adirondacks.

Btw, I should mention this since I didn't before - it seems plainly obvious to me that Paterson was going to pick Kennedy before TSHTF.  Makes the denial ultra-sweet in my view.

Actually, Silver is Speaker of the NYS Assembly.  The NYS Assembly Majority leader is Ronald Canestrari, who indeed is from the Albany area.  His assembly district includes part of CD20.  I don't know whether Canestrari lives in the CD20 part of his assembly district, though.

My bad.  So noted.

[Sam Spade]

What denial do you speak of?  Paterson claims he made his decision before the inauguration if it matters and some sources are claiming that Kennedy was never his pick (but others are claiming she was his favored pick until recently).

Uh, denial of the Senate seat.  Look, Lunar, if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it probably is one.