Senator Gillibrand

[Sam Spade]

Ted will be dead soon anyway. He can't bully no one no more.

He's already trying to get his wife his Senate seat in MA.  So that statement is not exactly accurate.

[Lunar]

Ted will be dead soon anyway. He can't bully no one no more.

He's already trying to get his wife his Senate seat in MA.  So that statement is not exactly accurate.

And he has a lot of connections to cause pain or pleasure for other politicians, built up over the years...

And there's always Barack and the other Kennedy's to carry out his political will.  If anything, that could make him more threatening.

[Sam Spade]

Ted will be dead soon anyway. He can't bully no one no more.

He's already trying to get his wife his Senate seat in MA.  So that statement is not exactly accurate.

And he has a lot of connections to cause pain or pleasure for other politicians, built up over the years...

And there's always Barack and the other Kennedy's to carry out his political will.  If anything, that could make him more threatening.

Here's the problem for Barack/Kennedys/Bloomberg...

In New York:

Sheldon Silver>Barack/Kennedys/Bloomberg

[Lunar]

That can't exactly be right, otherwise why would Caroline still be trying?

[Sam Spade]

That can't exactly be right, otherwise why would Caroline still be trying?

Bloomberg is still trying to gain hegemony over Silver.  Doesn't mean that he'll ever succeed (or come close).

Anyway, that's not the main point, this is:  Silver can make Paterson's life a living hell if he wants to.

[Lunar]

Interesting. I had long counted Kennedy out (and like, I said when it was 60% favoring Kennedy on inTrade, I was SO tempted to throw down 300 dollars against her... I'm still tempted now that it's 50%), and I have heard that Silver was the "most powerful man in New York politics" but I never quite heard him described as you did.

I wonder what Caroline is doing.  Maybe trying to find some political space between Sheldon and a hard place by using the White House, Kennedy Family, interest groups, and her last name's sway over the public to have a reasonable chance.

I just look at her campaign and think to myself that this is not someone whom Paterson can pick, even if Silver wasn't aligned against her.  As I said on the previous page, she uses "you know" every few words (142 times in a single shortish interview alone), and is clearly not ready for the national stage.  I don't think Reid has any influence over Paterson whatsoever...

I guess this could be viewed as a power play between Bloomberg and Silver, but I have to think that Bloomberg may have chosen the wrong horse.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting. I had long counted Kennedy out (and like, I said when it was 60% favoring Kennedy on inTrade, I was SO tempted to throw down 300 dollars against her... I'm still tempted now that it's 50%), and I have heard that Silver was the "most powerful man in New York politics" but I never quite heard him described as you did.

The way NY government is set up, Silver can essentially stop (or change) anything Paterson might want to push through.  Yes, budgets too.

The Senate Majority Leader and the Assembly Majority Leader choose which bills are heard and when.  If they want your legislation to die, it will never be voted on, and there ain't a damn thing you can do about it.  That's what happened with "congestion pricing" (although it would have gotten defeated anyway).

In other words, Silver could essentially make Paterson appear incompetent while still getting everything Silver wanted.  And probably drive his approval ratings in the gutter too, considering how bad the economy is going to be up here (yes, that could happen anyway).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bloomberg always chooses the wrong horse.  Most people here don't realize that.

[Lunar]

What are some other times?

I'm still an amateur at NY politics (but probably get it far more than I do CA politics)

[Mr.Phips]

Caroline Kennedy told the Daily News that she's never voted for Mike Bloomberg.  Which means she most likely voted for Mark Green and Fernando Ferrer.  Gov. Paterson, save us from this woman. 

Emphasis on "told."  Yeah she claims she voted for Ferrer but I doubt it.  I mean, saying anything else, including a claim to privacy, would be suicide.

Anyway, it's negligible and the odds don't favor Caroline.  Even back on December 8th (as I said in this thread), when Caroline had pretty much peaked, Paterson had said that her odds were no better than 1-20.  Now that there is significant opposition, it's best he just chooses Gillibrand.

He wont choose Gillibrand.  DCCC chief Van Hollen and well as Pelosi will beg her to stay because they know her House seat would be gone without her. 

[Lunar]

Do they really have any sway?  What threats or benefits can they provide Paterson?

[Mr.Phips]

Do they really have any sway?  What threats or benefits can they provide Paterson?

They could cut off stimulus funds for the projects he wants. 

[Lunar]

Do they really have any sway?  What threats or benefits can they provide Paterson?

They could cut off stimulus funds for the projects he wants. 

Over one district?  It wouldn't be a guaranteed loss and Nancy can't possibly flip over every one of these districts enough to exact revenge (and other New York congressmen wouldn't like that sort of punishment).  I mean, Reid and endless Upstate politicians could hurt Paterson too!  Reid wants a powerful-fundraising, moderate who can win reelection and make Democratic senators seem more pro-guns and anti-gay than Caroline would project.

I refuse to completely put all my chips on Gillibrand though.  I have them evenly split between her, Brown, and Suozzi.

[Mr.Phips]

Do they really have any sway?  What threats or benefits can they provide Paterson?

They could cut off stimulus funds for the projects he wants. 

Over one district?  I mean, Reid and endless Upstate politicians could hurt Paterson too!  Reid wants a moderate who can win reelection and make Democratic senators seem more pro-guns and pro-gay than Caroline would project.

I refuse to completely put all my chips on Gillibrand though.  I have them evenly split between her, Brown, and Suozzi.

Reid knows that any Democrat with a pulse will win reelection in New York.  Gillibrand is both pro-gun and mostly pro-life and that is a horrible fit for New York as a whole. 

[Lunar]

Do they really have any sway?  What threats or benefits can they provide Paterson?

They could cut off stimulus funds for the projects he wants. 

Over one district?  I mean, Reid and endless Upstate politicians could hurt Paterson too!  Reid wants a moderate who can win reelection and make Democratic senators seem more pro-guns and pro-gay than Caroline would project.

I refuse to completely put all my chips on Gillibrand though.  I have them evenly split between her, Brown, and Suozzi.

Reid knows that any Democrat with a pulse will win reelection in New York.  Gillibrand is both pro-gun and mostly pro-life and that is a horrible fit for New York as a whole. 

I edited my post above a bit.

Um, I don't know.  I don't think she'd be a horrible fit, at the very least she'd scare away any legitimate Republican opposition.  Israel might be able to primary her, but by then it'd be too late.

Also, Gillibrand actually looks like Hillary:


And thus could slip into her shoes a little easier as far as PR goes.  She'd need to slip a little bit to the left, but that's not undoable.  She's a great fundraiser.

And more importantly she'd appease the Upstate and Women's interest groups that are threatening Paterson's reelection.  I'm skeptical either Reid or Pelosi would cut off Paterson's economic stimulus funding over him picking anyone that's currently on his shortlist.  But Paterson would rather have local organizations endorse and campaign for his reelection than get an extra 10% in federal funding...

[Mr.Phips]

Do they really have any sway?  What threats or benefits can they provide Paterson?

They could cut off stimulus funds for the projects he wants. 

Over one district?  I mean, Reid and endless Upstate politicians could hurt Paterson too!  Reid wants a moderate who can win reelection and make Democratic senators seem more pro-guns and pro-gay than Caroline would project.

I refuse to completely put all my chips on Gillibrand though.  I have them evenly split between her, Brown, and Suozzi.

Reid knows that any Democrat with a pulse will win reelection in New York.  Gillibrand is both pro-gun and mostly pro-life and that is a horrible fit for New York as a whole. 

I edited my post above a bit.

Um, I don't know.  I don't think she'd be a horrible fit, at the very least she'd scare away any legitimate Republican opposition.  Israel might be able to primary her, but by then it'd be too late.

Also, Gillibrand actually looks like Hillary:


And thus could slip into her shoes a little easier as far as PR goes.  She'd need to slip a little bit to the left, but that's not undoable.  She's a great fundraiser.

And more importantly she'd appease the Upstate and Women's interest groups that are threatening Paterson's reelection.  I'm skeptical either Reid or Pelosi would cut off Paterson's economic stimulus funding over him picking anyone that's currently on his shortlist.  But Paterson would rather have local organizations endorse and campaign for his reelection than get an extra 10% in federal funding...

Do you really think Democrats want to have to deal with an embarassing special election loss for NY-20?  That is why I think Isreal being picked is more likely, since Democrats would almost certainly hold NY-02.  It would signal a real shift against Dems if they didnt hold NY-02. 

[Lunar]

It's not Paterson's #1 priority.  That's all I'm saying.  I'm sure he'll consider the district in his mind.  This is getting kind of nitpicky.  I'm just trying to broaden the scope -- if we're talking in strictly of terms of national democrats then other figures are interested in having a more centrist image for them.  If we're talking about people who can help Paterson, to portray Pelosi and the DCCC as the most important actors is ridiculous.  They will have their opinion, but I doubt it's high up on Paterson's priorities.  If you think Paterson is beholden to Pelosi, we'll just have to agree to disagree.  That is all.

[Sam Spade]

What are some other times?

I'm still an amateur at NY politics (but probably get it far more than I do CA politics)

The third term.  (you just wait and see, if he gets it)

Basically, all of the show-offy crap he did playing around with the 3rd party run in order to get attention.  That's backing the wrong horse because he failed to pay close attention running the city.

Backing the State Senate Republicans in this election.

Backing a stalking-horse to try and primary Sheldon Silver.

Need I go further...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ted will be dead soon anyway. He can't bully no one no more.

He's already trying to get his wife his Senate seat in MA.  So that statement is not exactly accurate.

And he has a lot of connections to cause pain or pleasure for other politicians, built up over the years...

And there's always Barack and the other Kennedy's to carry out his political will.  If anything, that could make him more threatening.

It were just a cheap shot, nowt serious

[Lunar]

Yeah, but it had the aura of truth.

AP summarizes partly why Lunar thinks she's dead:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081229/D95CLHU80.html

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) - Caroline Kennedy's latest trip under the spotlight as a Senate hopeful didn't get much better reviews than her first. A New York Daily News columnist said "the wheels of the bandwagon are coming off." New York Post state editor Fred Dicker already put her on his list of 2008 losers. And The New York Times said "she seemed less like a candidate than an idea of one: eloquent but vague, largely undefined and seemingly determined to remain that way."

On Friday after weeks of silence, Kennedy agreed to sit down for interviews with The Associated Press and New York City cable TV's NY1. Over the weekend, she scheduled another round of interviews with other news organizations from the Times to the Buffalo News. The New York Daily News noted she frequently used the phrases "you know" and "um" during the interview, which was skewered in political blogs Monday.

"There has been some very rough comments," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College poll. "I have been surprised," he said. "The welcome mat has not been out from everybody."
Kennedy spokesman Stefan Friedman didn't respond to requests for comment Monday.
It's been three weeks since Kennedy said she was interested in the seat expected to be vacated by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is President-elect Barack Obama's choice for secretary of state.

Two weeks ago, she took a quick upstate tour to talk to mayors but barely spoke to the media. Critics, including some Democrats, compared her lack of governmental experience to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's much-maligned credentials as a Republican candidate for vice president.

She drew criticism from news organizations that she ducked basic questions about issues and wasn't specific about why she wants to be, or should be, New York's junior senator.
In interviews over the weekend, she offered explanations for running that included the 9/11 attacks on Manhattan, where she has lived since the 1960s, Barack Obama's encouragement, and the commitment to public service by her father, President John F. Kennedy, and others in her family.

For some, that was reminiscent of a 1979 interview that helped undo her uncle's presidential campaign. Sen. Edward Kennedy didn't clearly explain why he wanted to be president much beyond citing family history when questioned by CBS newsman Roger Mudd.
Political science professor Robert McClure of Syracuse University's Maxwell School saw the connection. He was at a dinner party Sunday night with many liberal Democrats, but none supported Kennedy.

"It reminds me over and over again of that episode," he said.

"There wasn't active disgruntlement, either," he said. "But there was no one in that setting who did not feel she was unfairly trading on her name and had given insufficient reason for why she seeks the job."

[Smash255]

Do they really have any sway?  What threats or benefits can they provide Paterson?

They could cut off stimulus funds for the projects he wants. 

Over one district?  I mean, Reid and endless Upstate politicians could hurt Paterson too!  Reid wants a moderate who can win reelection and make Democratic senators seem more pro-guns and pro-gay than Caroline would project.

I refuse to completely put all my chips on Gillibrand though.  I have them evenly split between her, Brown, and Suozzi.

Reid knows that any Democrat with a pulse will win reelection in New York.  Gillibrand is both pro-gun and mostly pro-life and that is a horrible fit for New York as a whole. 

I edited my post above a bit.

Um, I don't know.  I don't think she'd be a horrible fit, at the very least she'd scare away any legitimate Republican opposition.  Israel might be able to primary her, but by then it'd be too late.

Also, Gillibrand actually looks like Hillary:


And thus could slip into her shoes a little easier as far as PR goes.  She'd need to slip a little bit to the left, but that's not undoable.  She's a great fundraiser.

And more importantly she'd appease the Upstate and Women's interest groups that are threatening Paterson's reelection.  I'm skeptical either Reid or Pelosi would cut off Paterson's economic stimulus funding over him picking anyone that's currently on his shortlist.  But Paterson would rather have local organizations endorse and campaign for his reelection than get an extra 10% in federal funding...

Do you really think Democrats want to have to deal with an embarassing special election loss for NY-20?  That is why I think Isreal being picked is more likely, since Democrats would almost certainly hold NY-02.  It would signal a real shift against Dems if they didnt hold NY-02. 

NY-02 is pretty much a lock for the Dems.   Israel landslides every election, Obama won the district pretty easily, Dems have a several point registration edge in the district, and a much deeper and stronger bench.

[Mr.Phips]

Do they really have any sway?  What threats or benefits can they provide Paterson?

They could cut off stimulus funds for the projects he wants. 

Over one district?  I mean, Reid and endless Upstate politicians could hurt Paterson too!  Reid wants a moderate who can win reelection and make Democratic senators seem more pro-guns and pro-gay than Caroline would project.

I refuse to completely put all my chips on Gillibrand though.  I have them evenly split between her, Brown, and Suozzi.

Reid knows that any Democrat with a pulse will win reelection in New York.  Gillibrand is both pro-gun and mostly pro-life and that is a horrible fit for New York as a whole. 

I edited my post above a bit.

Um, I don't know.  I don't think she'd be a horrible fit, at the very least she'd scare away any legitimate Republican opposition.  Israel might be able to primary her, but by then it'd be too late.

Also, Gillibrand actually looks like Hillary:


And thus could slip into her shoes a little easier as far as PR goes.  She'd need to slip a little bit to the left, but that's not undoable.  She's a great fundraiser.

And more importantly she'd appease the Upstate and Women's interest groups that are threatening Paterson's reelection.  I'm skeptical either Reid or Pelosi would cut off Paterson's economic stimulus funding over him picking anyone that's currently on his shortlist.  But Paterson would rather have local organizations endorse and campaign for his reelection than get an extra 10% in federal funding...

Do you really think Democrats want to have to deal with an embarassing special election loss for NY-20?  That is why I think Isreal being picked is more likely, since Democrats would almost certainly hold NY-02.  It would signal a real shift against Dems if they didnt hold NY-02. 

NY-02 is pretty much a lock for the Dems.   Israel landslides every election, Obama won the district pretty easily, Dems have a several point registration edge in the district, and a much deeper and stronger bench.

Yes it is.  Lazio held it in the 1990's, but the district was more Republican and included more Conservative parts of Suffolk that are now in NY-03.  Even when Lazio left in 2000, Isreal easily picked up the seat. 

[Smash255]

Do they really have any sway?  What threats or benefits can they provide Paterson?

They could cut off stimulus funds for the projects he wants. 

Over one district?  I mean, Reid and endless Upstate politicians could hurt Paterson too!  Reid wants a moderate who can win reelection and make Democratic senators seem more pro-guns and pro-gay than Caroline would project.

I refuse to completely put all my chips on Gillibrand though.  I have them evenly split between her, Brown, and Suozzi.

Reid knows that any Democrat with a pulse will win reelection in New York.  Gillibrand is both pro-gun and mostly pro-life and that is a horrible fit for New York as a whole. 

I edited my post above a bit.

Um, I don't know.  I don't think she'd be a horrible fit, at the very least she'd scare away any legitimate Republican opposition.  Israel might be able to primary her, but by then it'd be too late.

Also, Gillibrand actually looks like Hillary:


And thus could slip into her shoes a little easier as far as PR goes.  She'd need to slip a little bit to the left, but that's not undoable.  She's a great fundraiser.

And more importantly she'd appease the Upstate and Women's interest groups that are threatening Paterson's reelection.  I'm skeptical either Reid or Pelosi would cut off Paterson's economic stimulus funding over him picking anyone that's currently on his shortlist.  But Paterson would rather have local organizations endorse and campaign for his reelection than get an extra 10% in federal funding...

Do you really think Democrats want to have to deal with an embarassing special election loss for NY-20?  That is why I think Isreal being picked is more likely, since Democrats would almost certainly hold NY-02.  It would signal a real shift against Dems if they didnt hold NY-02. 

NY-02 is pretty much a lock for the Dems.   Israel landslides every election, Obama won the district pretty easily, Dems have a several point registration edge in the district, and a much deeper and stronger bench.

Yes it is.  Lazio held it in the 1990's, but the district was more Republican and included more Conservative parts of Suffolk that are now in NY-03.  Even when Lazio left in 2000, Isreal easily picked up the seat. 

The district also added liberal areas in east-central Nassau (Plainview, Syosset, Jericho, Old Bethpage).  The pre-redistricting district which is what Israel won in 2000 would be a pretty easy Democratic victory in an open election now, the district now is pretty much a Dem lock in an open race.    it wouldn't surprise me if they make NY-02 a bit less Democratic after the 2010 census in order to give the dems a better chance here in NY-03.  In fact I would be surprised if they don't.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Nothing's lock safe in a special election, especially something like NY-02.

[Smash255]

Nothing's lock safe in a special election, especially something like NY-02.

The district as a whole gives the Dems an obvious edge, however the Dems bigger advantage comes from the candidates.  The Dems have a slew of candidates they can run, the GOP basically has no bench at all. 

[Lunar]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.  Palin, the one GOP star guaranteed to create crowds, probably wouldn't create the same kinds of crowds in LI