Senator Gillibrand

[Smash255]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.  Palin, the one GOP star guaranteed to create crowds, probably wouldn't create the same kinds of crowds in LI

Speaking of Obama, one of the strong possible candidates for the Dems in NY-02 if Israel would get the nod for Senate is Suffolk County Majority Leader Jon Cooper, who was the only elected NY Democrat to endorse Obama over Clinton in the Primary.

[Mr.Phips]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.  Palin, the one GOP star guaranteed to create crowds, probably wouldn't create the same kinds of crowds in LI

Palin would be anethma in liberal Jewish areas like Syosset and most others as well. 

[Sam Spade]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.

How quickly do you want Obama to lose his "political capital"? 

If it's close, Obama donates a TV ad or radio ad.

[Mr.Phips]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.

How quickly do you want Obama to lose his "political capital"? 

If it's close, Obama donates a TV ad or radio ad.

This isnt a seat that Democrats are going to lose if voters turn out. 

[Smash255]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.  Palin, the one GOP star guaranteed to create crowds, probably wouldn't create the same kinds of crowds in LI

Palin would be anethma in liberal Jewish areas like Syosset and most others as well. 

Agreed something tells me Palin would do more to drive up the vote in liberal upper middle class areas such as Plainview, Syosset, Jericho & Woodbury than she would anywhere else in the district

[Lunar]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.

How quickly do you want Obama to lose his "political capital"? 

If it's close, Obama donates a TV ad or radio ad.

He spent some on Oregon and it paid off with Merkley.  It all depends on how carefully and skillfully he deploys it.

[Mr.Phips]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.

How quickly do you want Obama to lose his "political capital"? 

If it's close, Obama donates a TV ad or radio ad.

He spent some on Oregon and it paid off with Merkley.  It all depends on how carefully and skillfully he deploys it.

And that was likely the difference in that race. 

[Smash255]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.

How quickly do you want Obama to lose his "political capital"? 

If it's close, Obama donates a TV ad or radio ad.

He spent some on Oregon and it paid off with Merkley.  It all depends on how carefully and skillfully he deploys it.

Agreed, but its pretty much a mute point because he won't be needed.  The district has a decent Democratic lean, the Dems have a much deeper bench and a much better organization than the Republicans in the district.  

[Lunar]

So, the big news is that Bloomberg has dropped the Caroline thing:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/12302008/news/regionalnews/bloomberg_aide_cools_on_kennedy_146537.htm

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Paterson, in a likely attempt to divert media attention away from Caroline, has been interviewing gay and labor peeps for the seat:
http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/interviewing-for-the-job-of-us-senator/

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[Lunar]

Randi Weingarten would be an interesting outside-the-box pick: union leader, education leader, gay, women

[Sam Spade]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.

How quickly do you want Obama to lose his "political capital"? 

If it's close, Obama donates a TV ad or radio ad.

He spent some on Oregon and it paid off with Merkley.  It all depends on how carefully and skillfully he deploys it.

And that was likely the difference in that race. 

Can't agree with that - i.e. I doubt it was the difference.  The polling was pretty clear on this race.  Smith hadn't led in any poll released since mid-September (and the only tie was in Rasmussen).

I mean, Obama's commercial may have been worth a point or two (maximum), but a decisive difference - nope.  In fact, I don't mean to potentially throw out an opposite conclusion, but it looks to me like Merkley underperformed the polling.

I'm willing to be convinced if MW08 tells me otherwise - he has fairly decent sources up there.

[Sam Spade]

Randi Weingarten would be an interesting outside-the-box pick: union leader, education leader, gay, women

She shares the "annoying" tendency with Caroline.  She'd also underperform generic NY Democrat, but she wouldn't be close to losing.

[Lunar]

Randi Weingarten would be an interesting outside-the-box pick: union leader, education leader, gay, women

She shares the "annoying" tendency with Caroline.  She'd also underperform generic NY Democrat, but she wouldn't be close to losing.

She could be primaried easily if her fundraising skills aren't up to scratch.

But I bet every politically-connected gay person with money in the country would give a few bucks.  And that Union thing has something going for her.

[Sam Spade]

Randi Weingarten would be an interesting outside-the-box pick: union leader, education leader, gay, women

She shares the "annoying" tendency with Caroline.  She'd also underperform generic NY Democrat, but she wouldn't be close to losing.

She could be primaried easily if her fundraising skills aren't up to scratch.

But I bet every politically-connected gay person with money in the country would give a few bucks.  And that Union thing has something going for her.

Oh, she'll raise the money, no doubt, but remember she's a NYCite. 

In NY, too much control by NYCers tend to make suburbanites and upstaters a bit angry.  Don't make the mistake of thinking that divide has gone away because of the last 10 years or so or that it won't be exploited in the future.

[Lunar]

Randi Weingarten would be an interesting outside-the-box pick: union leader, education leader, gay, women

She shares the "annoying" tendency with Caroline.  She'd also underperform generic NY Democrat, but she wouldn't be close to losing.

She could be primaried easily if her fundraising skills aren't up to scratch.

But I bet every politically-connected gay person with money in the country would give a few bucks.  And that Union thing has something going for her.

Oh, she'll raise the money, no doubt, but remember she's a NYCite. 

In NY, too much control by NYCers tend to make suburbanites and upstaters a bit angry.  Don't make the mistake of thinking that divide has gone away because of the last 10 years or so or that it won't be exploited in the future.

Oh, I know.  I think Paterson really wants someone Upstate.  That's why my top three picks are Brown (Upstate+Black), Gillibrand(Upstate+Woman), and Suozzi(Suburban Superstar).  Weingarten is the type of surprise pick Paterson would make if he's more concerned about his primary while the others would be about his general.

From my readings on the subject, upstaters are pulling all of the plugs for what minimal political pressure they have and have indicated they would be unhappy if they continue to be shut out. Brown was even endorsed by a Republican State Senator.

[Lunar]

And the sexism card is played:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/30/inyti-article-kennedy-ham_n_154257.html

Apparently people making fun of Caroline, like those making fun of Palin, are really just discounting the value of motherhood.  The article notes how plenty of Congressmen previously just did a stint in the NBA or NFL or the Movies but fails to note that they weren't appointed, conducted media interviews that reflected upon their capabilities favorably, and that they convinced the voters that they were the best qualified people for the job.  In addition, there's a difference between fame and nepotism.  But we all know that already.

[Lunar]

And I shall continue to use this thread as my platform for ramblings.  The other gay person Paterson has interviewed today - O'Donnell, speaks.  But I question whether he brings even an inch as much to the table as Weingarten as far as "First Gay Senator" goes since Weingarten is a women (appeases women's groups and the general public is more tolerant of female homosexuals) and a labor leader (another key constituency). 

But here y'all are:

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http://www.politickerny.com/1240/case-danny-odonnell-he-made-it

Seems like a sincere guy, but I wouldn't bet on an NYC male on getting the job, regardless of sexual orientation

[Erc]

Randi Weingarten would be an interesting outside-the-box pick: union leader, education leader, gay, women

She shares the "annoying" tendency with Caroline.  She'd also underperform generic NY Democrat, but she wouldn't be close to losing.

She could be primaried easily if her fundraising skills aren't up to scratch.

But I bet every politically-connected gay person with money in the country would give a few bucks.  And that Union thing has something going for her.

Oh, she'll raise the money, no doubt, but remember she's a NYCite. 

In NY, too much control by NYCers tend to make suburbanites and upstaters a bit angry.  Don't make the mistake of thinking that divide has gone away because of the last 10 years or so or that it won't be exploited in the future.

Seconded.  Weingarten is an extremely easy way to piss off everyone outside of the city--the sort of candidate that could actually stand a chance of losing if all the stars aligned.  [Even leaving aside the homosexual issue, which I didn't know about until reading this thread.]

[Lunar]

How strong is the labor influence Upstate?  It's obviously weak in the suburbs, which could be more important than Buffalo, but Upstate?

[Lunar]

And I shall continue to use this thread as my platform for ramblings.  The other gay person Paterson has interviewed today - O'Donnell, speaks.  But I question whether he brings even an inch as much to the table as Weingarten as far as "First Gay Senator" goes since Weingarten is a women (appeases women's groups and the general public is more tolerant of female homosexuals) and a labor leader (another key constituency). 

But here y'all are:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politickerny.com/1240/case-danny-odonnell-he-made-it

Seems like a sincere guy, but I wouldn't bet on an NYC male on getting the job, regardless of sexual orientation

O'Donnell has a really famous, also-gay sister named Rosie I just realized

[Lunar]

Paterson is reportedly getting frustrated and is pondering appointing a seatwarmer just so no one will be offended.  There's a big problem with this however, the names mostly mentioned here are men.  And, of course, if there is a heated primary between the inner city and the suburbs and the inner city wins, that could help King in 2010 as well.

If he wanted to appoint a seatwarmer, the ideal time to announce that would have been weeks ago too.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jn3kCOceMPF7iuG4FzHbl_EgrQZgD95DTHHO0

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[Lunar]

omfg Silver is now chill with Caroline

http://www.nypost.com/seven/01012009/news/regionalnews/silver_now_takes_shine_to_caroline_146765.htm

"I have determined there's a good possibility she will be the appointee of the governor," Silver, the state's second most powerful Democrat, told The Post.

"If she is the appointee of the governor, I will certainly be supportive of her. I will work for her and will work strenuously for her election."

[Lunar]

The spin the media is giving the above post's quote is that Silver is greenlighting Caroline because he thinks she has a very good chance of being the nominee.

But my mind is turning - what if it's the opposite?  He knows she's not going to be the nominee and he doesn't want to look like he personally destroyed her candidacy and replaced the governor's pick with whomever does get picked (both to smooth over things with Caroline/Obama/women's factions and to give more legitimacy to the actual appointee).

[Lunar]

I know it's hard to believe, but the AP doesn't always understand politics.  Paterson just came out to deny the recent AP story suggesting he was thinking about apointing a seatwarmer.  His new years resolution, he says, is to "To try not to talk about the Senate."

[TeePee4Prez]

Caroline Kennedy, but I hope it's Cuomo.