Senator Gillibrand

[Lunar]

Not trying to upstage the other thread, but here's complete info on the frontrunners.  I think this important for any actual guesswork and adding this as another post just would not have worked.

I'm going for an upset with Nydia Velasquez as the replacement.  The tactically best pick isn't necessarily the most obvious one.


http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/11/the_next_senator_from_new_york.html

With Hilllary Rodham Clinton set to be announced as the next Secretary of State sometime soon after Thanksgiving, the race to replace her has already begun in earnest.

Senate seats in New York are a precious commodity with a powerful lineage -- Clinton, Robert F. Kennedy, etc. -- so every ambitious politician in the Empire State (literally) is being mentioned.

Ultimately, the choice lies with just one man -- Democratic Gov. David Paterson, who will fill the seat until a 2010 special election for the remaining two years of Clinton's term. Whoever wins in 2010 will have to stand for another election just two years later for a full six-year term.

With the prospect of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) as a statewide candidate sometime in the next few years -- though he seems more interested in governor than Senate at this point -- there are concerns that Paterson must choose someone who can win votes in the crucial battlegrounds of Upstate New York and Long Island.

Paterson also needs to think about his own re-election prospects; he ascended to the job following Gov. Elliot Spitzer's, um, indiscretions but has already announced that he will seek a full term in 2010. The idea of electing a woman, a Latino or an African-American could well appeal to Paterson as he seeks to fend off a potential primary challenge.

So, who's the front-runner? Here are the Fix's odds, based on a series of conversations with New York political sharps:

3-1: Thomas Suozzi. Suozzi is known nationally (to the extent he is known at all) as the guy who ran a quixotic primary challenge against Spitzer in 2006. With two years of hindsight, however, Suozzi, the Nassau County executive, looks better and better. Suozzi's geographic base (Long Island) is appealing for Democrats looking for a statewide winner, and Bill Cunningham, the top political aide to Paterson, is also extremely close to Suozzi.

5-1: Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand, who knocked off embattled Rep. John Sweeney (R) in 2006, is a political dynamo who received the most votes of any New York incumbent (177,667) earlier this month. Gillibrand's geographic positioning in Upstate, coupled with her fundraising prowess ($4.6 million raised in the past two years) and the idea of replacing Clinton with another woman, makes her a top prospect.

8-1: Rep. Nita M. Lowey. It's no secret that Lowey would like to be in the Senate. She appeared headed that way eight years ago until Clinton decided she wanted to run and Lowey stepped aside. But at this point there are doubts that Lowey is really interested, at 71 years of age and with significant seniority in the House, and, even if so, whether she would be the long-term choice.

12-1: State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo, the son of the former New York governor, is the biggest name (outside of the Kennedys) in the potential field. And, with Paterson on course to run for a full term in 2010, the Senate could be a nice landing spot for Cuomo. And yet, few party insiders take the prospect of a Sen. Cuomo seriously -- and we don't know why.

20-1: Reps. Steve Israel and Brian Higgins.  Israel, from Long Island, and Higgins, from western New York, are well regarded by the state's political establishment. Neither man, however, brings the "star power" that some New Yorkers expect out of their senators.

25-1: Reps. Greg Meeks and Nydia Velasquez.  Both Members have a case to be made that a state as diverse as New York deserves a Senate delegation with more diversity in it. Meeks, an African American, has represented the Queens-area 6th district for the last decade while Velasquez, who is Hispanic, has held the 12th district since 1992.

30-1: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The idea of naming Kennedy to the same seat his father once held has sentimental appeal for many in the New York Democratic Party. Kennedy is still in the mix for a post in President-elect Barack Obama's administration -- head of the Environmental Protection Agency -- and so any Senate speculation is on hold. Some Democrats also harbor electability concerns about Kennedy, believing he is far too liberal to be elected statewide.

100-1: Caroline Kennedy. The most interest Kennedy has ever shown in politics surfaced with her endorsement of Obama this year and her subsequent service as a vice presidential vetter. This one ain't happening.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'd say up Cuomo's odds.

[© tweed]

Cuomo... Paterson gets rid of him so he doesn't get primaried in 2010

[Lunar]

I'd say up Cuomo's odds.

Well, apparently "party insiders" don't think it'll happen.

It would remove a primary challenger to our blind governor, but still.  I think Dave's possibly not enough of a political cutthroat to appoint someone he doesn't like to a senate seat.  He seems like such a gentle guy, I don't know, maybe he'd get rid of Cuomo just to avoid confrontation.

Appointing a minority is the best way to gain institutional support from your selection and since he's already black, why not go for the full rainbow?

[Lief 🗽]

If Gillibrand gets the Senate seat, would it be difficult to hold on to her House seat? Also RFK Jr. is a nutjob, and he shouldn't be anywhere near the EPA or the Senate.

[Meeker]

Spitzer comeback!

[Lunar]

That's like the opposite of political capital, right?  Appointing someone hated by key constituents who used to be a political ally but is completely a dud now?

[Meeker]

That's like the opposite of political capital, right?  Appointing someone hated by key constituents who used to be a political ally but is completely a dud now?

I don't think I could visualize a worse pick for Paterson. Fortunately I can't see him doing it.

[Lunar]

I think Dave is a secret Obama supporter (he's a black, you see) so I can't see anyone that would noticeably hurt Obama or the Democrats in general.  Creating a media scandal would just be silly

I mean, I think it goes:

4th worst pick: Random NYC Taxicab Driver


3rd worst pick:  RFK Jr.
2nd worst pick: Eliot Spitzer
worst pick: Rudy Guiliani

double worst pick:




best pick: Tina Fey?

[cinyc]

It should be Suozzi, but despite what party insiders say, I think it will be Cuomo.   Naming Cuomo to the post removes Paterson's most likely Democrat primary opponent, and Cuomo should easily win the special election in 2010.

The problem with the lesser-known Velazquezes, Israels, Higgins and Quinns is that they'd have to build up name recognition and a warchest for the 2010 special election.  In particular, because Senator Schumer is up for reelection in 2010, if a lesser-known NYC liberal like Velazquez or Quinn is chosen, having 2 NYC liberals on the ballot may not play well Upstate or on Long Island.  

[Meeker]

Lunar, I don't think you're seeing what I'm saying. Look closer.

[Lunar]

The problem with the lesser-known Velazquezes, Israels, Higgins and Quinns is that they'd have to build up name recognition and a warchest for the 2010 special election.  In particular, because Senator Schumer is up for reelection in 2010, if a lesser-known NYC liberal like Velazquez or Quinn is chosen, having 2 NYC liberals on the ballot may not play well Upstate or on Long Island.  

That's the NY DNC talking, not David.

They are linked but choosing the person who is 8% more likely to keep his/her seat is pretty irrelevant to the guy as long as he can make the case for whoever he picks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A resurrection of Moynihan would be nice.

[Kevin]

It should be Suozzi, but despite what party insiders say, I think it will be Cuomo.   Naming Cuomo to the post removes Paterson's most likely Democrat primary opponent, and Cuomo should easily win the special election in 2010.

The problem with the lesser-known Velazquezes, Israels, Higgins and Quinns is that they'd have to build up name recognition and a warchest for the 2010 special election.  In particular, because Senator Schumer is up for reelection in 2010, if a lesser-known NYC liberal like Velazquez or Quinn is chosen, having 2 NYC liberals on the ballot may not play well Upstate or on Long Island.  

This is NY we are talking about the state GOP is pretty much dead for the time being along with the fact that it would be very hard to knock out any Dem in such an environment, even with a good candidate and a good year.

[Sam Spade]

A resurrection of Moynihan would be nice.

^

[paul718]

What about Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown? 

I have a question (that I should already know the answer to):

Who ever gets appointed will have to face a special election in 2010.  Is the seat then up for its previously scheduled re-election in 2012? 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Who ever gets appointed will have to face a special election in 2010.  Is the seat then up for its previously scheduled re-election in 2012? 

Yes.

I say Cuomo, btw.

[cinyc]

It should be Suozzi, but despite what party insiders say, I think it will be Cuomo.   Naming Cuomo to the post removes Paterson's most likely Democrat primary opponent, and Cuomo should easily win the special election in 2010.

The problem with the lesser-known Velazquezes, Israels, Higgins and Quinns is that they'd have to build up name recognition and a warchest for the 2010 special election.  In particular, because Senator Schumer is up for reelection in 2010, if a lesser-known NYC liberal like Velazquez or Quinn is chosen, having 2 NYC liberals on the ballot may not play well Upstate or on Long Island.  

This is NY we are talking about the state GOP is pretty much dead for the time being along with the fact that it would be very hard to knock out any Dem in such an environment, even with a good candidate and a good year.

No doubt the NY GOP is dying - but we still have one arrow left in our quiver - Mayor Giuliani.  The Senate seat could be his, if the Democrats name a weak candidate to replace Clinton and he wants it.  I'm not so sure that he'd want it, though.

[Lunar]

What about Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown? 

I have a question (that I should already know the answer to):

Who ever gets appointed will have to face a special election in 2010.  Is the seat then up for its previously scheduled re-election in 2012? 

Brown is getting some buzz, he wasn't included in Cillizza's analysis but he should have.

[dmet41]

It should be Suozzi, but despite what party insiders say, I think it will be Cuomo.   Naming Cuomo to the post removes Paterson's most likely Democrat primary opponent, and Cuomo should easily win the special election in 2010.

The problem with the lesser-known Velazquezes, Israels, Higgins and Quinns is that they'd have to build up name recognition and a warchest for the 2010 special election.  In particular, because Senator Schumer is up for reelection in 2010, if a lesser-known NYC liberal like Velazquez or Quinn is chosen, having 2 NYC liberals on the ballot may not play well Upstate or on Long Island.  

This is NY we are talking about the state GOP is pretty much dead for the time being along with the fact that it would be very hard to knock out any Dem in such an environment, even with a good candidate and a good year.

No doubt the NY GOP is dying - but we still have one arrow left in our quiver - Mayor Giuliani.  The Senate seat could be his, if the Democrats name a weak candidate to replace Clinton and he wants it.  I'm not so sure that he'd want it, though.

I think Giuliani is more interested in the governorship, which might be attainable if Patterson is not able to get things under control in Albany. The NY GOP is not in good shape, but if Patterson appoints someone like Higgins, Gillebrand, or Velaquez, I could see Pataki or maybe Rick Lazio having a fighting shot at the seat.

[YRABNNRM]

It should be Suozzi, but despite what party insiders say, I think it will be Cuomo.   Naming Cuomo to the post removes Paterson's most likely Democrat primary opponent, and Cuomo should easily win the special election in 2010.

The problem with the lesser-known Velazquezes, Israels, Higgins and Quinns is that they'd have to build up name recognition and a warchest for the 2010 special election.  In particular, because Senator Schumer is up for reelection in 2010, if a lesser-known NYC liberal like Velazquez or Quinn is chosen, having 2 NYC liberals on the ballot may not play well Upstate or on Long Island.  

This is NY we are talking about the state GOP is pretty much dead for the time being along with the fact that it would be very hard to knock out any Dem in such an environment, even with a good candidate and a good year.

No doubt the NY GOP is dying - but we still have one arrow left in our quiver - Mayor Giuliani.  The Senate seat could be his, if the Democrats name a weak candidate to replace Clinton and he wants it.  I'm not so sure that he'd want it, though.

I think Giuliani killed any chance he had of being elected statewide in NY with his Presidential campaign.

[Lunar]

Guiliani would be a longshot (far more than Martin vs. Chambliss), but at least he has enough connections and stature to run a well-funded challenge if his opponent were to stumble.  He'd make a race out of it, but I don't see a future for him in NY politics.

He was praying for a cabinet spot (Homeland Security) with McCain and sacrificing everything for it, much like Lieberman.  They are actually very similar to each other.

[paul718]

Guiliani would be a longshot (far more than Martin vs. Chambliss), but at least he has enough connections and stature to run a well-funded challenge if his opponent were to stumble.  He'd make a race out of it, but I don't see a future for him in NY politics.

I'd like to see Pete King challenge Paterson.  Though he could go after Hillary's replacement instead.

He as praying for a cabinet spot (Homeland Security) with McCain and sacrificing everything for it, much like Lieberman.  They are actually very similar to each other.

He would've made a much better Attorney General than DHS Secretary, IMO.

[Lunar]

Well, yeah, he decided to hitch his political future on that.

Some national Republicans will try to get him to run, just like they'll try to get Arnold to run against Boxer.  I don't see either.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It should be Suozzi, but despite what party insiders say, I think it will be Cuomo.   Naming Cuomo to the post removes Paterson's most likely Democrat primary opponent, and Cuomo should easily win the special election in 2010.

The problem with the lesser-known Velazquezes, Israels, Higgins and Quinns is that they'd have to build up name recognition and a warchest for the 2010 special election.  In particular, because Senator Schumer is up for reelection in 2010, if a lesser-known NYC liberal like Velazquez or Quinn is chosen, having 2 NYC liberals on the ballot may not play well Upstate or on Long Island.  

This is NY we are talking about the state GOP is pretty much dead for the time being along with the fact that it would be very hard to knock out any Dem in such an environment, even with a good candidate and a good year.

No doubt the NY GOP is dying - but we still have one arrow left in our quiver - Mayor Giuliani.  The Senate seat could be his, if the Democrats name a weak candidate to replace Clinton and he wants it.  I'm not so sure that he'd want it, though.

I think Giuliani killed any chance he had of being elected statewide in NY with his Presidential campaign.

Pretty much. Even McCain was willing to meet with non-millionaires.