Senator Gillibrand

[Keystone Phil]

Good stuff. I wanted Suozzi over Gillibrand but she's fine. Certainly an improvement compared to Hillary and definitely better than people like Cuomo and Maloney. If Paterson picked Maloney, I would have been very disappointed. Plus, we're probably getting a House seat!

Not if i can help it.

Oh, ok. Instant Lean Dem.

[cinyc]

Good, if true.  And if that vehemently anti-gun Congresswoman McCarthy tries to run against Gillibrand in the primary, all the better for the people of Long Island and New York.  

[Verily]

So...what would the race for Gillibrand's House Seat look like?  It's basically Westchester County, right?

I think two GOP State Senators have announced their indication to replace her.  The former holder of the seat, a multimillionaire and former NY State GOP Chairman, may want his seat back too.

Sweeney also beat his wife. He's not getting out of the primary if he tries to run.

Anyway, the district is suburban Albany and up along the Vermont border. It voted for Obama, narrowly. As I recall, the Majority Leader in the NY State Assembly lives in the district; maybe he will run.

Timothy Gordon might run as an Independence Party candidate, too. He represents part of the district in the Assembly. (I think he won the Democratic nomination in 2006 and 2008, but he's an Independence Party member.)

[Lunar]

Yeah I already posted that I meant this guy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Treadwell

[Verily]

Yeah I already posted that I meant this guy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Treadwell

Humiliated in 2008 in what was supposed to be one of the GOP's best chances at regaining a 2006 loss. No chance.

[Lunar]

Yeah I already posted that I meant this guy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Treadwell

Humiliated in 2008 in what was supposed to be one of the GOP's best chances at regaining a 2006 loss. No chance.

Well, he was humiliated because they love Gillibrand.  The key fact that he can spend 5.5 million dollars of his own money means he could be a force in the primaries.  I wouldn't exactly say "no chance."

One of the state senators is more likely though

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeah I already posted that I meant this guy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Treadwell

Humiliated in 2008 in what was supposed to be one of the GOP's best chances at regaining a 2006 loss. No chance.

Well, he was humiliated because they love Gillibrand.  The key fact that he can spend 5.5 million dollars of his own money means he could be a force in the primaries.  I wouldn't exactly say "no chance."

One of the state senators is more likely though

The Senate is so close to evenly divided, that the truly safe thing would be an Assemblyman. No one cares whether an Assembly seat flips.

[Verily]

Yeah I already posted that I meant this guy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Treadwell

Humiliated in 2008 in what was supposed to be one of the GOP's best chances at regaining a 2006 loss. No chance.

Well, he was humiliated because they love Gillibrand.  The key fact that he can spend 5.5 million dollars of his own money means he could be a force in the primaries.  I wouldn't exactly say "no chance."

One of the state senators is more likely though

The Senate is so close to evenly divided, that the truly safe thing would be an Assemblyman. No one cares whether an Assembly seat flips.

True. But I was just looking up the Assembly districts, and most of the Assemblypeople who represent parts of the 20th don't actually live in the district (including the Majority Leader).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ugh, we need less conservatives in the Senate.

[Lunar]

FINE - Everyone was bothering me by not looking up the two people I was talking about and I tracked them down.  They're not two state senators after all.  I'm not really well involved in what's happening in Saratoga Springs.  Wow, it was actually the guy that I predicted would run even though I never looked at his name because I didn't read the article.  But here it is:

http://capitalnews9.com/content/headlines/132206/treadwell--little-say-they-ll-run-for-seat-if-gillibrand-leaves-congress/Default.aspx

ALBANY, N.Y. -- If Kirsten Gillibrand becomes our new senator, there's already a growing list of Republicans ready to run for what would then be her vacant Congress seat.

Sandy Treadwell and Betty Little have publicly declared that they plan to run in a special election if there's an opening. Treadwell lost to Gillibrand in the last election.

He issued a statement saying, "I have just come off a campaign on the district, so I have name recognition, and 150,000 people who already voted for me. I would also be able to finance the campaign personally."

Betty Little has also told Warren County Chairman Mike Grasso that she is seeking the Republican backing for the seat as well.

Other possible contenders could be John Faso and current Assemblyman James Tedisco, but they have not released any official statements.

[Lunar]

http://www.poststar.com/articles/2009/01/22/news/local/doc4978bed490d87180375110.txt

Even before it’s clear whether there will be a vacancy, Republicans are coming forth to run for the congressional seat that would be open if U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand is appointed to the U.S. Senate.

Among them, state Sen. Elizabeth Little, R-Queensbury, already has the endorsement of GOP chairmen in Warren and Essex counties.

Other Republicans who have expressed interest in running include state Assembly Minority James Tedisco; Alexander “Sandy” Treadwell, a former state secretary of state who lost to Gillibrand in November; and Richard Wager, who dropped out of the 2008 race early last year, according to candidates and county Republican chairmen.

Gillibrand, D-Greenport, is widely reported to be among the top possibilities for an appointment to the U.S. Senate seat just vacated by Hillary Clinton, who was appointed U.S. secretary of state.

If Gillibrand is appointed to the Senate by Gov. David Paterson, a special election would be held to fill the 20th Congressional District seat. Paterson, in press releases issued Thursday, said he “is now entering the final phase of his selection process” and will announce his selection at noon on Friday.

Even though it is not yet known who Paterson will select, Warren County Republican Chairman Michael Grasso issued a press release on Thursday urging Little to run in a special election if the congressional seat becomes vacant.

“Betty Little has confirmed her interest in the congressional seat, so it sounds like things may get interesting up here again,” Grasso said in a statement e-mailed to The Post-Star. “We believe that Betty’s support is so widespread that we may have a Republican congressional representative.”

Essex County Republican Chairman Ronald Jackson said later on Thursday that Little has his support if she decides to run.

“If Betty’s in the race, I’m supporting Betty,” he said. “The others probably have advantages in some ways, but if you look at Betty Little -- she is the personification of a grandmother, a very straightforward, honest, plainspoken woman who doesn’t mince her words and means what she says.”

Jackson said Little has been laying the groundwork to run -- if the seat become open -- for weeks.

Daniel Mac Entee, a spokesman for Little, confirmed she has expressed interest in possibly running if the congressional seat becomes open.

“Betty wants to be prepared at that point, whatever that point is, to be able to make a decision of her own,” he said. “She has had discussions with county chairmen, including Mike Grasso — yes.”

Among other Republicans, Wager, of Dutchess County, already had formed an exploratory committee to run for the seat in 2010.

Wager, contacted Thursday, said it is premature to say whether he would run in a special election but he is interested.

“We’ll make a decision how to proceed once that does or doesn’t occur,” he said. “If we decided to run, we could be up and running within days.”

Treadwell is interested and would be “the obvious candidate” to run in a special election, said David Catalfamo, a spokesman for Treadwell.

“Obviously, he starts up with some clear fundraising advantages.He starts up with clear name recognition advantages,” Catalfamo said.

Treadwell personally contributed $5.9 million to his 2008 campaign.

Tedisco also has expressed interest to county Republican chairmen about running if there is a special election, Jackson said.

Tedisco could not immediately be reached for comment on Thursday afternoon.

Saratoga Republican Chairman John “Jasper” Nolan said Thursday it is premature to promote any particular candidate without knowing whether the congressional seat will be vacated.

“Not being negative on Betty, but we’ve kind of got to wait to see where we are,” Nolan said. “So I would kind of keep my powder dry on this one. You know there are several other candidates that were involved the last time and some of them may be in the hunt as well.”

Grasso, in his press release, wrote: “We have been hearing rumors that Kirsten Gillibrand now has the inside track and that the Dem State Chair is coming upstate for an announcement.”

Saratoga County Democratic Chairman Larry Bulman said Thursday he does not have direct knowledge of who Paterson will pick, but Gillibrand is among the possibilities.

“I think it’s clearly between her and Andrew Cuomo. I think the governor makes a solid case for either one of them,” he said. “But she has a much better shot today then she had two months ago.”

Bulman would not discuss possible Democratic congressional candidates if there is a special election.

“I’m not going to speak about who the possibilities are. Right now we support Congresswoman Gillibrand,” he said.

[Purple State]

McCarthy needs to calm the f**ck down, seriously.

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/politics/ny-pocaro2312389719jan23,0,7165375.story

[Purple State]

First big dip into the Gillibrand pushers. LA Times is reporting Gillibrand is the pick:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/01/ny-tv-station-s.html

[Sam Spade]

I would be pretty satisfied with a pro-gun Senator who voted against the bailout.  Of course, she will get a primary challenge - bet on it.

Verily - the NY State Assembly Majority Leader is Sheldon Silver, who is certainly not from this area.  I think, as noted before on this thread, that there's only one Dem state assembly member and no Dem state senators from this area.  In other words, there really isn't much of a Dem bench here.  Of course, maybe there will be a nasty primary battle or something with all the Republicans who will run.  The CD is part of Dutchess, extends around Albany and goes up to the Adirondacks.

Btw, I should mention this since I didn't before - it seems plainly obvious to me that Paterson was going to pick Kennedy before TSHTF.  Makes the denial ultra-sweet in my view.

[Lunar]

What denial do you speak of?  Paterson claims he made his decision before the inauguration if it matters and some sources are claiming that Kennedy was never his pick (but others are claiming she was his favored pick until recently).


Remember that Gillibrand is already a prolific fundraiser and a Hillary, Schumer, and now, Paterson ally.  I predict someone could challenge her: notable challengers include McCarthy, Israel, and Nadler, but it will be an uphill battle which will have an very undetermined outcome.  This ambiguity could scare off the very best challengers from giving up their House seats.

My biggest beef with Gillibrand, besides the whole blue-dog thing, is that I just heard it pronounced on TV with a "J" sound after over a month of me mentally pronouncing it with a hard "G" sound.

[cinyc]

I would be pretty satisfied with a pro-gun Senator who voted against the bailout.  Of course, she will get a primary challenge - bet on it.

Verily - the NY State Assembly Majority Leader is Sheldon Silver, who is certainly not from this area.  I think, as noted before on this thread, that there's only one Dem state assembly member and no Dem state senators from this area.  In other words, there really isn't much of a Dem bench here.  Of course, maybe there will be a nasty primary battle or something with all the Republicans who will run.  The CD is part of Dutchess, extends around Albany and goes up to the Adirondacks.

Btw, I should mention this since I didn't before - it seems plainly obvious to me that Paterson was going to pick Kennedy before TSHTF.  Makes the denial ultra-sweet in my view.

Actually, Silver is Speaker of the NYS Assembly.  The NYS Assembly Majority leader is Ronald Canestrari, who indeed is from the Albany area.  His assembly district includes part of CD20.  I don't know whether Canestrari lives in the CD20 part of his assembly district, though.

[Sam Spade]

I would be pretty satisfied with a pro-gun Senator who voted against the bailout.  Of course, she will get a primary challenge - bet on it.

Verily - the NY State Assembly Majority Leader is Sheldon Silver, who is certainly not from this area.  I think, as noted before on this thread, that there's only one Dem state assembly member and no Dem state senators from this area.  In other words, there really isn't much of a Dem bench here.  Of course, maybe there will be a nasty primary battle or something with all the Republicans who will run.  The CD is part of Dutchess, extends around Albany and goes up to the Adirondacks.

Btw, I should mention this since I didn't before - it seems plainly obvious to me that Paterson was going to pick Kennedy before TSHTF.  Makes the denial ultra-sweet in my view.

Actually, Silver is Speaker of the NYS Assembly.  The NYS Assembly Majority leader is Ronald Canestrari, who indeed is from the Albany area.  His assembly district includes part of CD20.  I don't know whether Canestrari lives in the CD20 part of his assembly district, though.

My bad.  So noted.

[Sam Spade]

What denial do you speak of?  Paterson claims he made his decision before the inauguration if it matters and some sources are claiming that Kennedy was never his pick (but others are claiming she was his favored pick until recently).

Uh, denial of the Senate seat.  Look, Lunar, if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it probably is one.

[Lunar]

What denial do you speak of?  Paterson claims he made his decision before the inauguration if it matters and some sources are claiming that Kennedy was never his pick (but others are claiming she was his favored pick until recently).

Uh, denial of the Senate seat.  Look, Lunar, if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it probably is one.

God forbid I see a different duck than the MSM.  They've only been blind-sided by the other two Senate replacements as well.

[© tweed]

Gillibrand has a poor record on homos

[cinyc]

I would be pretty satisfied with a pro-gun Senator who voted against the bailout.  Of course, she will get a primary challenge - bet on it.

Verily - the NY State Assembly Majority Leader is Sheldon Silver, who is certainly not from this area.  I think, as noted before on this thread, that there's only one Dem state assembly member and no Dem state senators from this area.  In other words, there really isn't much of a Dem bench here.  Of course, maybe there will be a nasty primary battle or something with all the Republicans who will run.  The CD is part of Dutchess, extends around Albany and goes up to the Adirondacks.

Btw, I should mention this since I didn't before - it seems plainly obvious to me that Paterson was going to pick Kennedy before TSHTF.  Makes the denial ultra-sweet in my view.

Actually, Silver is Speaker of the NYS Assembly.  The NYS Assembly Majority leader is Ronald Canestrari, who indeed is from the Albany area.  His assembly district includes part of CD20.  I don't know whether Canestrari lives in the CD20 part of his assembly district, though.

My bad.  So noted.

Canestrari's Wikipedia page says he was the mayor of Cohoes, NY before becoming an Assemblyman.  Cohoes is in Albany County, which is not on CD 20.  So if Canestrari hasn't moved since his mayorial days, he'd be a carpetbagger.

[Mr.Phips]

Good stuff. I wanted Suozzi over Gillibrand but she's fine. Certainly an improvement compared to Hillary and definitely better than people like Cuomo and Maloney. If Paterson picked Maloney, I would have been very disappointed. Plus, we're probably getting a House seat!

Not if i can help it.

No, hes right.  This seat is gone for Democrats without Gillibrand. 

[Smash255]

Hopefully this is something the media got wrong again regarding this race.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Good stuff. I wanted Suozzi over Gillibrand but she's fine. Certainly an improvement compared to Hillary and definitely better than people like Cuomo and Maloney. If Paterson picked Maloney, I would have been very disappointed. Plus, we're probably getting a House seat!

Not if i can help it.

No, hes right.  This seat is gone for Democrats without Gillibrand. 

The Senate seat is more of a loss. OK, some Republican replaces a worthless blue dogDemocrat in Congress. Big deal. Now, New York having a worthless blue dog in the Senate? That wil be a huge victory for the right-wingers.

[Lunar]

Good stuff. I wanted Suozzi over Gillibrand but she's fine. Certainly an improvement compared to Hillary and definitely better than people like Cuomo and Maloney. If Paterson picked Maloney, I would have been very disappointed. Plus, we're probably getting a House seat!

Not if i can help it.

No, hes right.  This seat is gone for Democrats without Gillibrand. 

The Senate seat is more of a loss. OK, some Republican replaces a worthless blue dogDemocrat in Congress. Big deal. Now, New York having a worthless blue dog in the Senate? That wil be a huge victory for the right-wingers.

She can't keep being a blue dog.  She'll moderate her positions to fit the state because she wants reelection.  She's already not claiming she's pro-gun so much as "pro-hunting."