Ireland General Discussion

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Lisbon II: Next October -- PA Report

As expected, the Government will be seeking that all member states retain a commissioner as well as assurances regarding abortion, neutrality, taxation and workers' rights.
Given soundings in recent days, this should all be achieveable.

I still think at this point that a second no vote is the most likely outcome, but TPTB have 10 months to get people onside. Watch this space...

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Strong language from within the Greens on the resignation of the head of the Equality Authority due to enforced budget cuts -- PA Report

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Independent TD, Tony Gregory (i-Dublin Central) has died today from cancer. Gregory has been a long standing, very effective independent TD for one of the most socially deprived areas in the country. The Gregory Deal of 1982 secured massive investment for the constituency in return for his propping up the Haughey Government.

- Irish Times report

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The Green Party has lost two Councillors in consecutive days.

Chris O'Leary and Bronwen Maher, councillors in Cork and Dublin respectively (both Dáil candidates in 2007), have resigned the party and will be contesting the upcoming local elections as Independents. Both opposed the Greens entering the coalition and have voiced criticism of various decisions of the party and government since that time. Cllr. O'Leary in particular criticised the Greens' leadership for their "stay-in-Government-at-all-costs" agenda.

In the last local elections in 2004, O'Leary and Maher were 2 of the 18 successful County Council candidates (up from 8 in 1999). The next local elections will be this June.

- The Irish Times

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The Oireachtas Library have added a nice feature to the Oireachtas website - constituency profiles.

Based on the 2006 Census figures, the profiles compare (in tabular and graphical form) the constituencies with national averages in a range of areas including age, disability, ethnicity, religion, education, employment, etc.

For anyone interested, the profiles for the constituencies with by-elections this June are here: Dublin Central and Dublin South - which offer up two very different electorates.

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The Green Party has lost two Councillors in consecutive days.

Chris O'Leary and Bronwen Maher, councillors in Cork and Dublin respectively (both Dáil candidates in 2007)

Also rans, or nearish misses?

Also rans - though Maher fell far short of potential.
O'Leary was the Greens' only elected representative in Munster.

The Oireachtas Library have added a nice feature to the Oireachtas website - constituency profiles.

Doesn't seem to be working, or at least the big constituency in the northeast doesn`t.

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Lá Fhéile Pádraig sona daoibh!

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Big shake-up in the junior ministerial ranks today. The number of Junior Government Ministers has been a source of some criticism for a while now, some of the roles being seen as having little real function but granting significant perks to the office holders.

The number of posts was cut from 20 to 15 - with 7 demotions and 2 promotions from the backbenches. The changes all relate to Fianna Fáil members, the Greens' lone Junior Minister (Trevor Sargent [Dublin N] retains Horticulture and Food. There's a definite sense that loyalty and sticking to the party line (something Mr Cowen has been very clear in demanding) was a key factor. John McGuinness (Carlow-Kilkenny) wandered from the party line to outline his rather strongly held opinions on public sector pay and productivity; Jimmy Devins (Sligo-N Leitrim) may have been deemed too even-handed over the decisions relating to cancer care in Sligo;...

In the midst of continuing dire economic doom and gloom, Mr Cowen this evening has clearly isolated a rump of newfound backbenchers. We'll see if that has repercussions later...

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Dr. Jimmy Devins and Eamonn Scanlan (both Sligo-Leitrim N) have resigned the Fianna Fáil whip over their opposition to cuts to breast cancer services at Sligo General Hospital.
- Irish Times

I presume they will continue to vote with the Government, but nonetheless it underlines the increasing difficulty of holding together a majority at a time of very sizable cuts to public expenditure, with still much more to come.

New Dáil Composition:

Fianna Fáil	72	(-2)
Fine Gael	52
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	8	(+2)
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	1	(Donegal SW)

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17%!

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17%!

?

It's not that long ago that FF falling into the 20s was
I'm actually surprised FF are still falling. I've no idea where 'rock bottom' is.

Given the STV system and our usage of 3, 4 and 5-seater constituencies, there are certian key threshold levels of support around which the expected returns can vary quite dramatically - especially for FF who have long maintained fairly homogenous levels of support accross thwe country. Falling to 17% is noteworthy in that it would jeopardise FF's chances of holding a single seat in most of the 17 3-seater constituencies; and they couldn't hope for more than one seat in any of the 11 5-seaters (except I presume in the Taoiseach's own constituency).

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A FG-Lab coalition would now be a grand coalition.

Not necessarily. Even with those percentages in first preferences it would still be quite possible that FF would finish second. For two reasons: 1) The lack of Labour organization west of the River Shannon and in other select parts of the country (like West Cork or most of the Midlands) means that that 24% is mostly an urban vote and 2) Election Strategy. Or the problem of how many candidates to run. In 1992 when Labour got their previous best ever result: 19% they actually ended up with less TDs then they should due to their election strategy. In Dublin South (my constituency) they ended up winning enough votes to elect two TDs but only ran one candidate. This problem may will turn up again (or alternatively Labour could run lots of candidates but then run the problem of vote splitting - though this will probably be an even bigger problem for FF on those polls).

I think you're too pessimistic about Labour's chances in this scenario. You're quite right obviously that Labour's problem west of the Shannon is very significant - but in 1992 they still got TDs from Sligo-Leitrim and Clare, and weren't far off in Cavan-Monaghan. At 24% and with FF polling worse than swine flu, I think one could reasonably expect an even better return.

I also think that that Labour will have learned the lesson of 1992. I think that it's the quality of the candidates which will be the significant issue not the actual numbers.

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A FG-Lab coalition would now be a grand coalition.

Not necessarily. Even with those percentages in first preferences it would still be quite possible that FF would finish second. For two reasons: 1) The lack of Labour organization west of the River Shannon and in other select parts of the country (like West Cork or most of the Midlands) means that that 24% is mostly an urban vote and 2) Election Strategy. Or the problem of how many candidates to run. In 1992 when Labour got their previous best ever result: 19% they actually ended up with less TDs then they should due to their election strategy. In Dublin South (my constituency) they ended up winning enough votes to elect two TDs but only ran one candidate. This problem may will turn up again (or alternatively Labour could run lots of candidates but then run the problem of vote splitting - though this will probably be an even bigger problem for FF on those polls).

I think you're too pessimistic about Labour's chances in this scenario. You're quite right obviously that Labour's problem west of the Shannon is very significant - but in 1992 they still got TDs from Sligo-Leitrim and Clare, and weren't far off in Cavan-Monaghan. At 24% and with FF polling worse than swine flu, I think one could reasonably expect an even better return.

I also think that that Labour will have learned the lesson of 1992. I think that it's the quality of the candidates which will be the significant issue not the actual numbers.

I'm not being pessimistic. I'm only saying what might happen - not what I think would happen. Actually if that poll was a result in a General Election then FF might lose alot more (yes, even more) than they should because most of their incumbents would be running against each other for a significantly smaller vote, leading to mass vote splitting (this can have an effect - in 2002 iirc in Dun Laoghaire FG got a quota but ran three candidates and none got elected).

Agreed. Both the presence of too many candidates and their increased transfer toxicity would almost certainly cost them seats.

Did you see the Tubridy-Cowen interview, btw?

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My guestimate based on the poll...

	FF	FG	Lab	SF	Grn	Other
Carlow-Kilkenny	1	2	1		1
Cavan-Monaghan	1	2		2
Clare	1	2				1 (Ind - Breen)
Cork E	1	2	1
Cork NC	1	2	1
Cork NW	1	2
Cork SC	1	3	1
Cork SW		2	1
Donegal NE	1	1		1
Donegal SW	1	1		1
Dublin C	1	1	1			1 (Ind - O'Sullivan)
Dublin MW		2	2
Dublin N	1	1	1			1 (Soc)
Dublin NC		1	1			1 (Ind - McGrath)
Dublin NE		1	1	1
Dublin NW	1		1	1
Dublin S	1	3	1
Dublin SC		1	2	1		1 (PBP)
Dublin SE		1	2		1
Dublin SW	1	1	1	1
Dublin W	1	1	1			1 (Soc)
Dún Laoighaire		2	1			1 (PBP)
Galway E	1	2	1
Galway W	1	1	2			1 (Ind - Grealish)
Kerry N		1	1	1
Kerry S	1*	1	1
Kildare N	1	1	1			1 (Ind - Murphy)
Kildare S	1	1	1
Laois-Offaly	2	2				1 (Ind)
Limerick City	1	2	1
Limerick County	1	2
Longford-Westmeath	1	2	1
Louth	1	2	1	1
Mayo	1	4
Meath E	1	1	1
Meath W	1	1		1
Roscommon-Leitrim S	1	2
Sligo-Leitrim N		2		1
Tipperary N		1	1			1 (Ind - Leary)
Tipperary S		1	1			1 (Ind - Healy)
Waterford	1	2	1
Wexford	1	2	2
Wicklow	1	2	2
Total	33	69	38	12	2	12 (2 Soc; 2 PBP; 8 Ind)

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You only have three in Dun Laoghaire

Special Jas redistricting

and have left out the counties beginning with "W" but other than that looks alright.

I've also decided the country would be better off without these counties.

No, I just decided to post the unfinished table as I had reason to fear that the post was in jeopardy.

Anyway, I found it actually very difficult to make the prediction generally given the unprecedented FF and Lab numbers. Looking at it now, it still looks too generous to FF and not generous enough to Lab.

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Yeah I know. Especially given transfers. The problem is in places like Sligo-N.Leitrim or Cork North West FG have 2 seats but no other parties exist except the civil war ones and FG surely can't win all 3?

For Sligo-N Leitrim, I think these numbers mean 2 FG shouldn't be a problem with the final seat a FF/SF marginal. MacManus (SF) is a long-term candidate who has continually grown his vote. The 1992 Labour win also comes to mind as indicative of leftish potential. The lack of progress in the Locals stands against them though. FF shouldn't be far away, but both incumbents will presumably split the FF vote and I doubt their stunt at resigning the whip will go down well viz a viz the hospital campaign.

Cork NW is more difficult. There's some evidence of a Labour presence, but it's impossible to really say how they'd do. Of course, who's to say some random independent wouldn't appear? It's a difficult constituency alright.

Actually thinking about I expect alot of FF gene pool to seep away and run as independents. If FF do genuinely that badly we will be left in a 2002 style situation with lots of independents whose entire function is make sure that the cuts - wherever they are - are in other places and not in the village which gave them the quota to protect their hospital/school/secret stash of gold/whatever. If somehow FG-LAB don't make a majority and they just over 50% and perhaps transfers won't be so friendly as in 2007 when they ran as the Alternative government (cf. compare 1969 and 1973 - FG/LAB got more votes in the former than the latter but lost in 1969 and won in 1973 due to transfers) then the country will finally slip towards ungovernable banana republic status [/cynical Dubliner].

Yeah, with the mass move away from FF, a good election for all sorts of Indies should be in the offing.

I don't think there will be any question over the numbers being there for FG/Lab - but it's not inconceivable that there could be difficulties in coming to agreement. If Lab do really well, would they push for a rotating Taoiseach type deal? Are there policies on dealing with the banks at all compatible? Can they agree on where to make massive budget cuts?
Not sure what happens if they can't do a deal...

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The Ceann Comhairle is effectively being forced to resign following our very own expenses scandal that has been developing since late summer. John O'Donohgue's expenses as Ceann Comhairle and formerly as Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism - particularly with regard to foreign travel - caused a quite a stir with the public. The recent release of expenses during the last year as CC amidst economic crisis were the final straw as Sinn Féin, Labour and Fine Gael in turn declared that he had lost their confidence.

The only issue outstanding is exactly when O'Donoghue will resign. He has indicated he will resign next week, but SF and FG have both demanded his immediate resignation because they see a not unreasonable prospect of the Government's collapse this weekend - and as things stand the sitting CC at time of dissolution is automatically deemed re-elected at General Elections.

That prospect of Government collapse arises from a Green Party convention which will vote on a new Programme for Government currently being negotiated between the Greens and FF. Green Party leader, John Gormley has said that the Programme must garner the ²/₃ support of delegates for the Greens to remain in Government. Watch this space...

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The only issue outstanding is exactly when O'Donoghue will resign. He has indicated he will resign next week, but SF and FG have both demanded his immediate resignation because they see a not unreasonable prospect of the Government's collapse this weekend - and as things stand the sitting CC at time of dissolution is automatically deemed re-elected at General Elections.

Unless the sitting CC doesn't stand for reelection to the Dáil.

Is there any indication that O'Donoghue will retire at the next election (even if the Dáil dissolved soon and while he was still CC and he could have another term (which would seem to be for as long as Fine Gael and Labour can get along) by snapping his fingers)?  Or that he will resign from the Dáil at the same time as he resigns as Ceann Comhairle if that happens before the Dáil dissolves?  Or is this expenses scandal of John O'Donoghue, Ceann Comhairle and formerly John O'Donoughue, Minister of Arts, Sport and Tourism one that would be a comparitively minor blemish on John O'Donoughue, rank and file TD, or of a degree such that he might struggle to get reelected if he were not the outgoing CC but, if he is the Ceann Comhairle at the time of dissolution or until the next election if it isn't imminent, he could remain as a TD without being a Rod Blagojevich (not so much in being impeached and convicted/expelled from the Dáil but in his not resigning creating a scandal in itself)?  Would O'Donoghue want to remain in the Dáil with whatever his future prospects there are?

It's widely assumed that O'Donoghue does wish to remain a TD - he's only 53. Whether he would decide to run again even were he to be removed as CC is not clear cut though. My suspicion would be that he would run.

I suspect O'Donoghue's biggest problem on re-election wouldn't be the expenses scandal (indeed I'm not sure how much of a problem it would necessarily be at all), but simply Fianna Fáil's abysmal ratings. In an open 3 seat election in Kerry S, Labour have a real chance of a gain at FF's expense anyway. O'Dongohue used his position as Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism not only to help himself to live the high-life but also to deliver some largesse to his constituency as well. He's not an unpopular figure there. Though the scandal has not gone down well with the general public, I don't have much a read on what the good people of Kerry make of it (well, my housemate happens to be from those parts - but his thoughts are no more representative of Kerry S, as mine are of Cavan-Monaghan ).

Should O'Donoghue be returned, he couldn't reasonably hope to regain the CC position or any Ministerial office in future - but he wouldn't be politically untouchable either. He wouldn't even be the worst offender for financial scandals in the House (Michael Lowry isn't going anywhere after all...).

If O'Donohue resigns (at least as Ceann Comhairle) before the Dáil dissolves, how soon would a new CC be elected?  Any ideas as to whom that might be?  How much would electoral math be a factor in who is elected?

As I understand it, under the standing orders of the Dáil, on a CC vacancy arising, the Leas-Ceann Comhairle (Deputy CC, currently Brendan Howlin [Lab-Wexford]) shall preside until a date is set for the election of a new CC. So there's little definitive there as to timing.

Howlin is though the obvious candidate. He wants the job - and the Government will actually be happy to now give the position to the opposition as it amends the Dáil math in their favour, effectively increasing the Government majority by 2 (adding O'Donoghue to the Govt votes, and removing Howlin from the opposition votes).

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A Guardian article on the new "Programme for Government" states, "It is understood the Greens have gained concessions on... the reform of the Republic's parliament."  One of the Greens' goals for parliamentary reform was a reduction in the size of the Dáil (the other reform goal mentioned in the article was reforming expenses for parliamentarians).  I'd be interested to hear if a Dáil reduction got into the revised program, the proposed size or range of sizes, how politically feasable such a change really is (I remember someone on this forum saying that due to maximum population per TD requirements in Ireland's constitution (there being minumum pop/TD requirements also), the size of the Dáil would eventually have to increase after each review of constituencies unless Ireland's constitution was amended), when it might go into effect and any complementary changes (like changing the range of Dáil members per constituency, presently 3-5 I know).

Well, first things first the proposed Renewed Programme for Government can be viewed from the Green's website. (Political reform issues are dealt with from page 32.)

The main points in regard to political reform are proposals to ban corporate donations and for full vouching and publication of expenses. The Programme also proposes the establishment of a new Electoral Commission to examine and make recommendations on possible changes to the electoral system for the Dáil and Seanad, possible 'mid-term' elections, extending the franchise for Presidential elections to Irish abroad, lowering the voting age for local elections.

1. the amount of seats in the Dail has hardly changed since (iirc) 1981 so I don't know what you are referring to there. Though the amount of seats is far, far too many for a country our size (166).

Since 1980, there have been 166 TDs. Though obviously the TD:constituent ratio has changed quite a bit - as indeed has there been a move to increasing the number of 3-seaters over 5-seaters.

I don't necessarily agree that 166 is too many TDs though - but we've had that discussion before.

2. As this reform is mostly focused on reducing the number of TDs the constituencies would so much change as be abolished and go bigger - which would effectively end the use of counties for constituency drawing purposes, especially in low-density regions like the Midlands and West. This I can see being the biggest point of public opposition. Personally though I think it can't come faster.

The Green's apparent preferred system is a move towards the German system. Retaining X number of STV seats, but also some number of seats to reflect overall party support (either via a seperate list vote or something else). Such a thing would almost certainly require a Constitutional amendment - which I doubt would pass.

We'll have to wait and see on electoral reform though, the proposals agreed look like something that could quite easily go nowhere or produce easily ignored recommendations.

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Would Howlin be automatically returned if the Dáil were dissolved between O'Donoghue's resignation as CC and the election of a new CC?

Not unless he was formally voted in as CC proper.

That would only likely have come up if O'Donohue had resigned at CC before today's Green Party convention and that convention either failed to accept (by the required 2/3 vote) the motion to remain in Government on the basis of the new program or passed (by the same 2/3 vote) the motion opposing a bailout of some sorts that I'm too lazy to look up now.  If neither happens (or happened) at today's convention, I imagine the Government will survive long enough for a new Ceann Comhairle (possibly the same as the "interim CC" as you say) to be elected.  Although you never know.

Yeah, I had thought about this earlier - but I'm without a definitive answer. Had the Greens voted against, it would have depended on how Cowen reacted. He could have went straight to the President before the Dáil resumed and sought a dissolution, which she may or may not have granted. Or he could have tried to wait until a formal vote of no confidence is moved by the Dáil, in which case the opposition would probably get a shot at removing O'Donoghue first.

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So, then, what are the cahnces of an election being called in the next week?

Negligible.

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Dr. Jim McDaid (FF-Donegal NE) has written to the Chief Whip withdrawing his support for the Government. He resigned the whip late last year due to the decision to scrap the cervical cancer vaccine. He also expressed his wish to see a General Election earlier in the autumn. Following his resignation of thw hip last year he has abstained and absented himself from certain votes, but now he has expressed his willingness to vote against the Government as well.

The current Dáil maths is rather messy and open to interpretation, but IMO is probably now 4.

Current Dáil Composition

Fianna Fáil	72
Fine Gael	52
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Independents	10
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	1	(Donegal SW)

Government	84	(FF + Green + Harney, Grealish, Healy Rae, Lowry, Devins, Scanlon)
Opposition	80	(FG + Lab + SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, McDaid)
Majority	4

Just to clarify a little on the Independents...
Pro-Government:
Harney and Grealish are the ex-PDs - the party having completed it's long disbandment process in September. Harney remains Minister for Health. No prospect of these two voting against the Government so long as Harney retains that job.
Healy Rae and Lowry are independents who did a deal with Bertie after the 2007 election. Healy Rae is concerned about possible measures that could reduce the allowable alcohol-blood ratio further, but apart from that neither seem likely to bolt.
Devins and Scanlon resigned the FF whip earlier this year in protest of the downgrading of service provisions at Sligo Hospital. Both continue however to vote with the Government.

Anti-Government:
O'Sullivan replaced Tony Gregory in the Dublin Central by-election earlier this year. Votes solidly against the Government. Like Gregory, no deal has been proffered to her.
Behan resigned from FF over the first 2009 budget. Solidly votes against the Government.
McGrath did a deal with Bertie after the election for his support, but backed out over the same budget. Possibly the most buy-able Independent, but still unlikely to change sides again.

Which leaves only McDaid, who is likely to have a much more ambiguous voting record than anyone else. His preference for a new election though means that I'm presuming he'll vote accordingly should it matter.

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So, then, what are the cahances of an election being called in the next week before the end of the year?

Well, it's just become a bit more uncertain.

Despite my assertion just the other day, that forecast Noel Grealish as a safe vote with the Government, the Irish Independent reports yesterday that he has written to the Chief Whip and informed him that he wants to strike a deal (á la Healy-Rae and Lowry) in order for the Government to retain his vote. He then proceeded to absent himself from the remaining votes in the Dáil for the week.

On top of this, Wednesday in Budget Day and like last year will see more very significant spending cuts. The public sector will likely see another wage cut, last year it was an average 7.5% cut, this year will probably be another 6.5%. This has been the subject of some controversy, particularly because it appeared that the Government had reached a deal with unions on forced unpaid leave rather than simple pay cuts - but then backed out when, somewhat surprisingly, FF backbenchers strongly urged the Government not to do a deal.

There's also likely to be cuts to unemployment benefit and child benefit as well as further expenditure cuts across all departments.

Given the apparent resolve of the FF backbenchers, and indeed the Greens, the focus will be on the votes of Grealish and Jim McDaid in particular this week.

Personally, I don't see the Government falling over the Budget, and so surviving into next year - but elements of the media also feel that the votes of Devins and Scanlon bear watching. In a scenario where all 4 vote against the Government, then the majority is lost (81-83) and an election would no doubt have to happen in the near future.

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So, then, what are the cahances of an election being called in the next week before the end of the year?

Well, it's just become a bit more uncertain.

Despite my assertion just the other day, that forecast Noel Grealish as a safe vote with the Government, the Irish Independent reports yesterday that he has written to the Chief Whip and informed him that he wants to strike a deal (á la Healy-Rae and Lowry) in order for the Government to retain his vote. He then proceeded to absent himself from the remaining votes in the Dáil for the week.

On top of this, Wednesday in Budget Day and like last year will see more very significant spending cuts. The public sector will likely see another wage cut, last year it was an average 7.5% cut, this year will probably be another 6.5%. This has been the subject of some controversy, particularly because it appeared that the Government had reached a deal with unions on forced unpaid leave rather than simple pay cuts - but then backed out when, somewhat surprisingly, FF backbenchers strongly urged the Government not to do a deal.

There's also likely to be cuts to unemployment benefit and child benefit as well as further expenditure cuts across all departments.

Given the apparent resolve of the FF backbenchers, and indeed the Greens, the focus will be on the votes of Grealish and Jim McDaid in particular this week.

Personally, I don't see the Government falling over the Budget, and so surviving into next year - but elements of the media also feel that the votes of Devins and Scanlon bear watching. In a scenario where all 4 vote against the Government, then the majority is lost (81-83) and an election would no doubt have to happen in the near future.

Following up on this...
Budget Day yesterday. 4.1% cut to social welfare payments (excluding pensions) and a second round of sizable pay cuts for the public sector (averaging between 5-8%). An industrial action response from the public sector unions is very likely. It's form is up for grabs - though it's effectiveness, IMO, is not. That game has been lost.

Otherwise, yesterday saw the introduction of a carbon tax (read: more tax on fuels); a lame effort at inhibiting the recent surge in cross-border shopping traffic by a measly half-point reduction in VAT and a cut in excise on alcohol; and a car scrappage scheme.

On the politics of it all...
Noel Grealish would appear to have come to some sort of arrangement with the Government.
In the votes on the various opening budget related votes, he, McDaid, Devins and Scanlon have all stuck with the Government, so it looks very likely that the Government will stumble on to 2010.

I expect the opposition will start pushing for the Donegal SW by-election come January - that it probably the next event likely to shift the Dáil numbers.

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And it's clear the pressure of the budget has clearly been getting to some...