Ireland General Discussion

[Јas]

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Coalitions make things (slightly) more accountable; so I think saying Haughey, Cowen, et al are opposed to them is the stating the obvious just a little bit.

Ah, but then explain Ahern's pro-coalition stance!

(Check!)

[Јas]

DUBLIN NORTH (4) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1GP (LAB gain from FF)

Agree

DUBLIN WEST (4) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC (SOC gain due to redistrubtion)

Agree

DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF; but more likely to be an SF gain but not on those poll numbers.)

1 FF; 1 Lab almost certainly. The third would be hard to call between FG and SF and even FF couldn't be fully and completely ruled out. I suspect SF would be favourites, just about.

Call: FF 1; Lab 1; SF 1 (SF gain from FF).

DUBLIN NORTH EAST(3) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB (no change)

Agree

DUBLIN CENTRAL (4) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1IND (FG gain from FF)

Agree

DUBLIN NORTH CENTRAL (3) - 1FF 1FG 1IND (no change)

Hesitant agree - McGrath's numbers could do anything. Labour or the Greens could sneak it if transfers went well.

KILDARE NORTH (4) - Murphy gains from FF if she runs; if not no change - 2FF 1FG 1LAB (no change)

Agree on the call. Don't see Murphy running again, nor taking the seat under any normal circumstances even if she did.

KILDARE SOUTH (3) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF)

Agree

MEATH EAST (3) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB (LAB gain from FF - In saying that some of the major Labour voting areas have been moved into Louth around the Drogheda suburbs; Either way FF loses one and either FG or LAB gains)

Agree

MEATH WEST (3) - 2FF 1FG (No change though possible SF gain here)

Tend to agree. Don't see SF picking this up as a 3-seater though, just too many transfers required. Probably FG actually ending up putting most genuine pressure on the second FF seat though would require good transfers from increased Lab and Green voters.

LOUTH (5) - 2FF 2FG 1SF (FG gain due to redistrubtion)

Agree, though the Greens could cause an upset and snatch either the 2nd FG or SF seat.

WICKLOW (5) - 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1GP (GP gain from FF)

Agree

WEXFORD (5) - 2FF 2FG 1LAB (no change; I think)

Agree. Possibly the most stable constituency in the country in recent times.

CARLOW-KILKENNY (5) - 2FF 2FG 1GP (FG gain from FF)

Run 1 good Labour candidate and I'd put it down as a Lab gain from FG. If not then, I agree with your call.

LAOIS-OFFALY (5) - With Cowan Taoiseach? 3FF 2FG (no change)

Agree

LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4) - 1FF 2FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF)

Agree

CAVAN-MONAGHAN (5) - 2FF 2FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF due to the removal of O'Hanlon as CC.)

I'll presume that you meant SF instead of Lab, in which case agree.

DONEGAL SOUTH WEST (3) - 2FF 1FG (no change; but possible SF gain from FF)

Disagree. FF couldn't sustain 2 seats on this type of swing - not with SF so close now.
Call: FF 1; FG 1; SF 1 (SF gain from FF)

DONEGAL NORTH EAST (3) - 1FF 1FG 1SF (SF gain from FF)

Disagree. Close, but I think FF would hold their 2 here.
Call: FF 2; FG 1 (Unchanged)

SLIGO-NORTH LEITRIM (3) - 1FF 2FG (FG gain from FF)

Agree

ROSCOMMON-SOUTH LEITRIM (3) - 1FF 2FG (no change)

Agree

MAYO (5) - 2FF\FF("IND), 3FG (no change, at least in seats per party anyway.)

Agree

GALWAY WEST (5) - 2FF 1FG 1LAB 1GP (GP gain from FF - Counting Grealish as FF.)

Agree

GALWAY EAST (4) - 2FF 2FG (no change)

Agree

CLARE (4) - 2FF 2FG (no change)

Tentative agree. Greens could maybe take the 2nd FF seat in this scenario.

TIPPERARY NORTH (3) - 1FF 1FG 1IND (no change)

Agree. Though Lab taking the FG seat wouldn't be impossible here.

TIPPERARY SOUTH (3) - 1FF 1FG 1LAB (LAB gain from FF; depends on whether or not Healy runs again.)

Agree

WATERFORD (4) - 2FF 1FG 1LAB (no change)

Agree

CORK EAST (4) - 1FF 2FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF)

Certainly FF 1; Fg 1; Lab 1. Green voters become the kingmakers as to the final seat between FF and FG. Porbably FG so. Agree.

CORK NORTH CENTRAL (4) - 1FF 2FG 1LAB (FG gain from FF)

Agree (unless FF pull off particularly good vote management).

CORK SOUTH CENTRAL (5) - 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1GP (GP gain from FF)

Disagree. Should be FF 2; FG 2 and a tossup between Labour and the Greens for the last, which will depend on transfers.
Call: FF 2; FG 2; Lab 1 (Unchanged)

CORK SOUTH WEST (3) - 1FF 2FG (no change)

Agree

CORK NORTH WEST (3) - 1FF 2FG (FG gain from FF)

Agree

KERRY SOUTH (3) - 2FF 1FG (FG gain from IND due to O'Donaghue being CC)

Agree with call. (But that's technically a FF gain from Ind)

KERRY NORTH & LIMERICK WEST (3) - 1FF 1FG 1SF (No change from Kerry North; would probably result in a different FF TD though)

Agree

LIMERICK (3) - 1FF 2FG (FG gain from FF if using the old Limerick West boundaries)

Agree

LIMERICK CITY (4) - 2FF 1FG 1LAB (FG lose seat due to boundary changes; otherwise no change.)

Disagree. Should be 1 FF and 2 FG with the final seat between FF and Lab. Green (and ex-PD) voters very important in deciding outcome. Hard to say, put I think FF would shade it.
Call: 2 FF; 2 FG (Lab lose to boundary change)

[Јas]

So that leaves: FF\PD 60 (-20) FG 65 (+14) LAB 25 (+5) SF 5 (+1) GP 7 (+1) SOC 1 (+1) IND 3 (-1)

My total: FF 61; FG 63; Lab 23; Green 8; SF 7; Soc 1; Ind 3
Likely govt: FG/Lab coalition (majority of 5 or 7 depending on who is elected CC).

[Јas]

Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin have all sought to put down motions of no confidence in the Minister for Health Mary Harney (PD-Dublin MW). They will almost certainly be trumped by the Government putting down it's own motion of confidence in her.

Despite equivication in the comments of Independents Finian McGrath (Ind-Dublin NC) and Jackie Healy Rae (Ind-Kerry S); the government should hold firm with its safe majority.

However, rogue FF TD Ned O'Keefe (FF-Cork E) yesterday called on Harney to resign over the recent cancer screening controversy. Today, it's been made clear that the government (or at least FF) expects all its members to back Harney on pain of losing the whip. O'Keefe has already this term failed to back the government on important votes notably absenting himself to his constituency.

So, we have something of a showdown and could have our first change in the make-up of the 30th Dáil. Stay tuned...

[Јas]

As expected the Government amended the proposed motion of no confidence and carried their own vote, 83-73.

Unexpectedly however rebel TD, Ned O'Keefe (Cork E), resigned from the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party before the votes were called this evening. O'Keefe said he couldn't vote against the Labour motion (he abstained) but could approve the Government motion because it didn't explicitly endorse the work of the Minister for Health Mary Harney.

Anyway...tonight the composition of the Dáil has changed, so that it is now:

Fianna Fáil	76	(-1)
Fine Gael	51
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	6	(+1)
Ceann Comhairle	1

Government (FF; Grn; PD; Inds)	88
Opposition (FG; Lab; SF; Inds)	77
Majority	11	(-2)

O'Keefe has a been a FF TD for Cork East since 1982 and has retained a solid, reliable vote there ever since. While it's hard to call many Independent seats as 'safe', O'Keefe would have to be seen as in a strong position to hold onto the seat should he wish to in upcoming elections.

[Јas]

Best. Blog. Post. EVER

http://thatsireland.com/2007/11/05/fianna-fails-fifty-ways-to-laugh-at-voters/#more-677

P.S: Support Digout Day! (see sig)

Mmm...

Seems to me the voters are happy enough to laugh along...the vast majority of the matters in the list were well known prior to the election and yet FF were returned with roughly the same proportion of votes as last time.

To me, the more interesting side to all this is not that FF have been involved in all this, but that the voters have implicitly accepted the behaviour and/or FF's response to it.

[Јas]

Best. Blog. Post. EVER

http://thatsireland.com/2007/11/05/fianna-fails-fifty-ways-to-laugh-at-voters/#more-677

P.S: Support Digout Day! (see sig)

Mmm...

Seems to me the voters are happy enough to laugh along...the vast majority of the matters in the list were well known prior to the election and yet FF were returned with roughly the same proportion of votes as last time.

To me, the more interesting side to all this is not that FF have been involved in all this, but that the voters have implicitly accepted the behaviour and/or FF's response to it.

I never said they didn't. As a matter of fact that is what I have always maintained. Haven't I quoted it before "There is nothing wrong with Fianna Fail that isn't wrong with Ireland, and there isn't anything wrong with Ireland that isn't wrong with Fianna Fail"?

I just found the link Amusing.

I wasn't saying that you said/implied/felt differently - I was just giving my own thoughts.

I'm just saying I think that this blogger's anger is at least somewhat misdirected.
The people have spoken...they don't care.

(I actually think it's quite remarkable that politics has cleaned up as much as it has in the past 20 or so years given just how often the public are willing to re-elect some of these people.)

[Јas]

Actually I reckon the tone of blog is at times so very shrill it reminds people of what is so common about a certain crowd of Irish political commentators who seem to exist to remind people of their own self-importance

Agree

Btw, what gives your assertion that politics is much more clean than 20 years ago? (Not hard it has to be said.) Apart from the fact that we all KNOW that corruptions is going on\has gone on and o\c the laborious tribunals. 

Good question and my answer is that I'm not sure.
The biggest single factors are the ongoing work of the Tribunals and the continuous revelatory work of the Revenue Commissioners in detecting tax defaulters.

The jailing of the likes of Burke; Lawlor; and Fahy; and the emergence in public of the shenanigans of Haughey; Ahern; Lowry; Flynn, etc. help form the opinion also.

These things together with what I would perceive as at least a more aware (if not properly investigative) media; something (though nowhere near where it should be) of a change in public attitudes; the increased focus on the actions of local councils when it comes to issues such as rezoning; the changed working behaviours of banks; and general instinct.

In general there's more light now shining on politicians at local and national level.

There has been very serious, high level investigations into corrupt politicians ongoing for some time now, but little of it concerns say the last 10 years, and almost none of it the last 5.

Somewhere from these things, doth my opinions emerge. Whether or not it amounts to a hill of beans...well that depends on your point of view.

[Јas]

@Jas: Did read the Tribune on Sunday. In particular the article on the relationship between Albert Reynolds, John Ellis (Ex-FF TD for Leitrim) and Pakistan?

There was a whole section of articles dedicated to attacking to FF. And while it was typically sensationalistic, I have to say if half the stuff there is true...

Long time since I went to the bother of getting a Sunday paper (it's not hard to be disenchanted at the choice on offer)...so, no 'fraid I know nothing of the Turbine's reportage of late...but do feel free to enlighten.

[Јas]

Well, that's...weird. Not sure what to make of it. (Particularly the idea that Reynolds could make one iota of difference to US policy on Pakistan.)

[Јas]

On the subject, Transparancy International have just released the results of their 'Corruption Preceptions Index' for 2007. Though we're not a leading light (Score: 7.5/10; 17th place), we do outrank places like France; Belgium; and the US.

[Јas]

The Progressive Democrats continue on what seems to be the path to extinguishment. Senator Fiona O'Malley (ex-TD, Dún Laoighaire), the only PD of any standing who was evidently considering taking the leadership has finally made up her mind against the idea.

It seems remarkable for a political party, especially one in government, to lack any candidate or member (regardless of quality) interested in being party leader.

The bell is surely now tolling for the PDs.

[Јas]

The PDs will merge will Fianna Fail before the next election, so it is written. (Except that maybe one or two of them will go over to Fine Gael... but who out of the decimated Parliamentary party would do that now like Parlon and O'Donnell (thankfully!) are gone.)

At this stage Harney and Grealish are de facto FF TDs. Grealish has made it perfectly clear that he is more than willing to sign up - the absence of any PD leadership makes that all the easier. The question for him is simply when it becomes official.

It's clear now that barring something unforseen, Harney will be Minister for Health as long as Bertie remains at the top. Will be interesting to see if Cowen would be willing to move her should he become Taoiseach before the end of this term. Looks increasingly unlikely that she'll run for election again.

Meanwhile having looked over some the Sunday papers down here in Kildare in the Local Dunnes, did you know OMG SOME WOMAN DIED!1111?

Haven't seen the Sundays today, but the coverage generally has been remarkable. I was only vaguely aware of this woman up until she died. I really don't understand the interest. It eludes me how people seem to be so fascinated.

[Јas]

It will be announced tomorrow that Cllr. Mary Mitchell O’Connor (PD; Dún Laoighaire Rathdown County Council) will defect to Fine Gael. Hardly earth shattering, but nonetheless adds to the death is at hand theories re: the Progressive Democrats.

The defection will bring the total number of PD County Councillors down to 19 (only 4 in Dublin).

[Јas]

It will be announced tomorrow that Cllr. Mary Mitchell O’Connor (PD; Dún Laoighaire Rathdown County Council) will defect to Fine Gael. Hardly earth shattering, but nonetheless adds to the death is at hand theories re: the Progressive Democrats.

The defection will bring the total number of PD County Councillors down to 19 (only 4 in Dublin).

Yay! Drlcoco related stuff. Actually hard to believe that she is\was the last PD on the council; really the signs were there from the local elections onwards.

Now makes Fianna Fail's life in opposition more difficult. Not that I have a particular fondness for our local council.

New Dún Laoighaire - Rathdown Council Composition:
FG 10; FF 7; Lab 6; Green 4; Ind 1

I presume that's been a solid FG/Lab coalition since the election.

[Јas]

As part of the series of reasons as to why I feel Enda Kenny would be a travesty as Taoiseach is his obsession with the idea of random drug testing.

In Leader's Questions last week, he suggested random drug testing for students; today FG put out a press release calling for random drug testing for nightclub patrons:
"Gardaí should mount random searches of customers outside known nightclubs and pubs in order to root out cocaine use."

There's times when I think he's not much better than the political equivalent of Steve Staunton.

[Јas]

As part of the series of reasons as to why I feel Enda Kenny would be a travesty as Taoiseach is his obsession with the idea of random drug testing.

In Leader's Questions last week, he suggested random drug testing for students; today FG put out a press release calling for random drug testing for nightclub patrons:
"Gardaí should mount random searches of customers outside known nightclubs and pubs in order to root out cocaine use."

There's times when I think he's not much better than the political equivalent of Steve Staunton.

Indeed. Though really he is a small town lawyer living in a bubble that he believes to be The West wing but with added Michael Ring.

lol

Now, now...though there's many the bad apple and gombeen men among we lawyers, I'll not have you sully us with the inclusion of Mr. Kenny!

[Јas]

Taoiseach has announced that the recently announced pay rises for the cabinet will be 'deferred' by a year.

I fail to see any logic to this decision. Either they view the top-up as justified and accept it; or unjustified and refuse it. Accepting it a year later seems to be a fairly stupid way of saying that the pay rise is justified but hey seeing as you all raised such a fuss over it, we better be seen to be doing something about it.

[Јas]

In the interests of balance, having criticised the Government, I shall also give a shout out to Fine Gael who issues a press release yesterday, 'Fishermen alienated by Govt could help in fight against drugs'. So now they've suggested random testing in schools, and outside social venues, and having fishermen on the hunt of drug barons; all within the past 3 weeks.

FG seem to think drugs strategy is like a McDonald's Happy Meal, a new collectable one each week - and about as well conceived in design and use.

[Јas]

The Standards in Public Office Commission have released the spending figures from the General Election.

Party	Expenditure	Seats	€/seat
Fianna Fáil	€3,650,240.55	78	€46,797.96
Fine Gael	€2,809,474.25	51	€55,087.73
Labour	€1,477,321.48	20	€73,866.07
Progressive Democrats	€1,012,707.52	2	€506,353.76
Sinn Féin	€685,095.66	4	€171,273.92
Green Party	€553,858.70	6	€92,309.78
Socialist Party	€56,125.49	0	n/a
Workers' Party	€30,200.14	0	n/a
Christian Solidarity Party	€11,427.06	0	n/a

Those PD seats turned out to be quite expensive!

[Јas]

I've almost started to check Fine Gael's press releases regularly simply for my own personal amusement. Their latest offering inclides the wonderful line "the army could also help with posture development of schoolchildren" (oh... the mental picture!). FG suggest bringing the army in to help the battle against child obesity - but apparently "Willie O'Dea has unfortunately dismissed my proposals out of hand and seems intent instead on 'playing politics' with this issue".

I don't like it when FG's arguments lead to my agreement with this man:

[Јas]

I've almost started to check Fine Gael's press releases regularly simply for my own personal amusement. Their latest offering inclides the wonderful line "the army could also help with posture development of schoolchildren" (oh... the mental picture!). FG suggest bringing the army in to help the battle against child obesity - but apparently "Willie O'Dea has unfortunately dismissed my proposals out of hand and seems intent instead on 'playing politics' with this issue".

I don't like it when FG's arguments lead to my agreement with this man:

What is with your obsession with posting that pic?

Hard to say...combination of things I suppose. It encapsulates a lot about my perceptions of certain Irish politicans.

I suppose it's become my own version of Private Eye's:

[Јas]

The Irish Mail on Sunday reported that the PD General Council meeting in January the white flag will go up and the party will begin to wind up following there  failure to find a leader. The piece says that PD Councillors have been advised to consider "their future with other political groupings". In a seperate story, the Sunday Times reported that many PD Councillors have already been approached by either FF or FG with a view to what must be defections in the short term given that local elections are due in the early 2009.

[Јas]

Today's Sunday Business Post have apparently reported that the Government plan on holding the EU Reform Treaty Referendum on 9 May.

[Јas]

Today's Sunday Business Post have apparently reported that the Government plan on holding the EU Reform Treaty Referendum on 9 May.

Any idea on whether they will hold the referendum on 'Children's Rights' on the same day? (They were also talking about a potential referendum on Gay Marriage.. Until Leninhan said it would be 'divisive' )

I didn't see the article myself. I'd suggest though that it's almost certain that they'll be held on the same day for reasons both economical and political.