Ireland General Discussion

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Who are the likely replacements for Ahern?

The overwhelming favourite is the current Tánaiste (Deputy PM) and Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly).

If one was to look further then: Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dermot Ahern; Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Micheál Martin; Minister for Transport and the Marine, Noel Dempsey; Minister for Justice, Brian Lenihan; and Minister for Education, Mary Hanifan probably in order of likeliness - though as I say, Cowen is the prohibitive favourite.

FTR, both Martin and Lenihan have already ruled out running.
Nobody has yet officially declared, but Cowen is being touted as having it in the bag.

Speculation is on who he will pick as Tánaiste and as the new Minister for Finance - in both cases the same names listed above are to be considered. The Pheonix (Irish version of Private Eye) has been reporting for some months now that Lenihan has made a deal with Cowen to back him for the leadership, so long as he is set up to be next in line.

The leadership issue should be dealt with fairly quickly. The FF leadership will meet today to decide on the rules; it's likely (contest or no contest) that a new leader will be decided upon within days. (Ahern was elected party leader only 2 days after Albert Reynolds resigned back in 1994.) Whatever rules are decided, the leadership will be voted upon only by the 77 Fianna Fáil's TDs.

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The Government has published the white paper on the EU Reform Treaty.
It emerged yesterday that 12 June is the likely date for the referendum.

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The Government has published the white paper on the EU Reform Treaty.
It emerged yesterday that 12 June is the likely date for the referendum.

Are the Irish polls still indicating a 2:1 vote in favor of the treaty ?

AFAIK, there hasn't been a poll on it since in over 4 weeks, when it was, as you describe, about 2-1 in favour - but with high numbers of undecideds (30-35%, IIRC).

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All of the potential contenders I outlined earlier declared that they wouldn't run at various points throughout the day yesterday. Officially, nominations close on Saturday afternoon - and only Cowen is expected to be nominated.

If though something very surprising were to happen, there would now be one more vote up for grabs. Last night, Beverley Flynn (Mayo) was re-admitted to the Fianna Fáil party (and will be officially re-admitted to the parliamentary party on Tuesday next) on the motion of the Taoiseach. As she had been supporting the government anyway, it doesn't change any dynamics in the Dáil, which is now comprised as follows:

Fianna Fáil: 78 (+1)
Fine Gael: 51
Labour: 20
Greens: 6
Sinn Féin: 4
Progressive Democrats: 2
Independents: 4 (-1)
Ceann Comhairle: 1

Govt majority: 13 (unchanged)

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Another poll published in today's Sunday Business Post by RedC.
Carried out Thursday; MoE 4%.

	May 07	May 07	Mar 08	Apr 08
	RedC	Election	RedC	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	35	40
Fine Gael	26	27.3	30	28
Labour	11	10.1	11	11
Green	6	4.7	8	9
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	9	6
PD	3	2.7	1	1
Other	7	6.6	7	6

Preference for Taoiseach:
Cowen 63%
Kenny 24%

Quite the bounce for FF. Ahern's resignation has received a lot of positive coverage with praise for his decision to leave rather than hang on.

Also notable that apparantly 28% support Fine Gael, but only 24% expressed preference for Enda Kenny (FG leader) as Taoiseach.

Cowen confirmed:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7331731.stm

What's he like?

Fianna Fáil through and through, very popular within the party and the grassroots; but a relatively low profile with the general public. Certainly not possessing the same 'man of the people image' Ahern had.

Fairly cautious about coalition partners, famously declaring years ago about the PDs "if in doubt, leave them out". Has extensive ministerial experience including Health (which he dubbed "Angola"); Foreign Affairs; and Finance. Little or no radicalism in any of those offices, hard to know what exactly his personal political views are. From Offally, in the midlands; likely to resonate much better with rural Ireland than with Dublin.

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So basically a mildly conservative dud?

Mildly conservative, yes probably. Populist leaning, pragmatic rather than ideological. All of which I think resonates well with FF grassroots.

I'll wait and see on the 'dud' angle.

Seriously it still amazes anyone out there is shocked that Ahern was corrupt.

Well, until the first revelations emegred in winter '06, I don't think there was really any real suggestion out there that that was the case.

I'd also say that unless and until evidence emerges that any official decision he made or influenced may have been linked to one of the payments, then the majority of the country would be very slow to actually label Ahern 'corrupt'. I'd probably include myself in that bracket (even though I think his actions were categorically wrong and that resignation was appropriate for quite some time now).

Don't people out there anything about Fianna Fail operates in North Dublin?

I think not. Most people have been very surprised by the goings-on at St. Luke's. Certainly FF have never had any visage of being whiter-than-white, but the evidence presented has changed perceptions immensely.

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Former President Dr. Patrick Hillery has died.

Irish Times Breaking News Article:
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0412/breaking23.htm

Hillery served 2 terms as Irish President (1976-90) as well as as European Commissioner and numerous offices in the cabinet including External Affairs (now Foreign Affairs). It was during his time as Minister for External Affairs that his more memorable actions occured such as the speech to the UN in New York calling for UN peacekeepers in Northern ireland following Bloody Sunday in 1972; the speech to the 1971 Fianna Fáil Ard Fheis (Conference) shouting down the supporters of Kevin Boland following the Arms Trial; the negotiation of Ireland's membership of the EEC.

As President, he served two full terms, both unopposed. The most significant event of his Presidency was his decision to grant a dissolution of the Dáil in January 1982 to then Taoiseach Garret Fitzgerald, following the loss of the vote on the Budget. It wasn't the decision itself which was controversial, but that senior Fianna Fáil figures (including Haughey and Lenihan) privately asked Hillery to refuse the dissolution but later denied that this happened in the run up to the 1990 Presidential election. The denial which was shown to be evidently false ended the policital career of the 1990 FF Presidential candidate Brian Lenihan and almost caused the fall of the Haughey government.

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What are the odds of a new Dial election being held in 2008 now that there will be a new Taoiseach?

Slim. There's little or no expectation of an election; only Fine Gael are officially calling for one - and I'm not sure they really want one anyway.

In 2009?

Unless events precipiate one, I don't expect their to be an election until nearer the end of a full Dáil term, i.e. 2011/12.

When will the likely public desire not to have an election so soon after the last one give in to a desire to have their Taoiseach go before them and seek his own mandate?  (Not that its much of a mandate when neither your party nor the combined existing coalition parties win a majority of seats, but you get my point.)

If the people want an election, it would be because of actual issues rather than the feeling that Cowen hasn't got a proper mandate. Nor do I think that argument can really be taken seriously by politicians - the Rainbow Coalition (FG-Lab-DL) took over in December 94 from an FF-Lab coalition without an election; Reynolds succeeded Haughey as Taoiseach in 1992 without an election; Haughey took over from Lynch as Taoiseach in 1979 without an election, etc. etc.

But Jas and the horseowning Protestant (are you really a Protestant, and if so are you ancestrally Protestant along some line or did you convert to Protestantism - you must still be a small percentage of the "southern" Irish population, and you don't live in Ulster like Jas, although those counties may not be any more Protestant than the rest of the Republic on average) could better speculate on when a new election is likely. 

Gully (The Protestant with a Horse - though I don't know whether he actually has a horse!) is from south Dublin and IIRC his family can trace their roots back quite a bit.

For the 3 Ulster counties, the Protestant population is at about 8-9% - split about 60-40 between Church of Ireland and Presbyterians . (IIRC, Monaghan actually has the lowest number of Methodists in Ireland - and, off the point, the lowest number of Jews, but the highest proportion of Presbyterians.)

For most of the rest of the country it's more like 2-3%, Dublin slightly higher at around 4%. The great majority of Protestants in the rest of the country are CoI.

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RIP.

Deserves an historical allocade for that Boland speech.

Do you have any links which describe the speech and the historical context?

The speech was made at the 1971 Fianna Fáil Ard Fheis (party conference) in the immediate aftermath of the Arms Crisis.

A short clip of the speech forms part of the reviews of his political contribution in a couple of the audio & visual links are at the bottom of this page.

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Green Party leader and Minister for the Enivronment, John Gormley has lifted his national profile considerably with his speech to the Green Party Conference on Saturday night, making just about all of the front pages.

He included in his speech criticism of China's treatment of Tibet saying:
"Respect for human rights must extend to all cultures and countries. One country which has been ex- ploited and suppressed and suffered for far too long is Tibet..."

The Chinese Ambassador was at the Conference, at the invite of the Greens, and was aware that criticism was going to be made. He, and two aides, walked out of the Conference when the offending remarks were made and proceeded to make a veiled threat to Irish economic links with China.

Irish Times Article:
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0414/1208115797466.html

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The new leader of the sinking ship that is the Progressive Democrats has been announced. Ciarán Cannon won a very close the leadership vote 51-49 against former TD (and daughter of the party's founder) Fiona O'Malley.

The PDs operate an electoral college systmen in deciding leadership, 40% to the parliamentary party; 30% to local councillors and the national Executive; 30% to the general membership. It seems that the parliamentary party split evenly, Noel Grealish backing Cannon and Mary Harney backing O'Malley. The local councillors are believed to have strongly favoured Cannon - not very surprising given the abnormal numbers of PD councillors in Cannon's home county of Galway. Given this, then the party membership itself must have strongly favoured O'Malley.

Cannon has almost precisely no chance of becoming a TD after the next election, at least not in his current constituency of Galway East. Cannon has already eyed the Local Elections next year as key in determining hte future of the party.

Irish Times Piece
RTÉ Report

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They should just have waited until only one member was left, then they needn't have bothered with holding a contest.

They pretty much had that problem already. They had to change the rules when it became clear that neither of the 2 TDs wanted the job. Cannon is (*I think*) the first Senator to be the leader of a political party here.

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Around 10,000 Irish farmers took to Dublin city centre this week during the visit of EU Commission President Barosso. They're protesting the approach Peter Mandelson (EU Trade Commissioner) is taking in the current WTO round, which they say if carried through would elad to the collapse of the Irish farming industry.

The leader of the Irish Farmer's Association, Padraig Walshe, speaking to the energised crowd, made clear that the IFA would come out strongly against the EU Reform Treaty if Mandelson gets his way at WTO talks in Geneva on 20 May.

RTÉ Story

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Farmers always say that.

As in "it's the end of the world as we know it...etc."?
True...but whether they're right or wrong, Irish farmers have been having an increasingly tough time of it in Celtic Tiger Ireland and as is natural they're on the lookout for someone or something to blame. They still carry a reasonable electoral stick with which to put a bit of fear into the pro-Reform Treaty campaign.

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Apparantly a poll will be published in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post by RedC.

	May 07	May 07	6 Apr 08	28 Apr 08
	RedC	Election	RedC	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	40	38
Fine Gael	26	27.3	28	29
Labour	11	10.1	11	10
Green	6	4.7	9	8
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	6	7
PD	3	2.7	1	2
Other	7	6.6	6	6

FF coming down slightly from the 'Cowen bounce', btu outside that all movement of plus or minus 1.

The bigger story is that they've also polled on the Lisbon Treaty voting intentions.
Yes: 35
No: 31
DK: 34

A massive jump for the no campaign. Obviously if these numbers are genuinely reflective of opinions, it's anyone's game.

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FTR, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern is currently addressing the Joint Houses of Congress, viewable on RTÉ Online here.

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Later today, Ahern will submit his resignation as Taoiseach to the President at Áras an Uachtaráin, following his last official engagement today (the opening of a new Battle of the Boyne centre together with Ian Paisley) ending his 11 year premiership.

Tomorrow, Brian Cowen will be elected Taoiseach by the Dáil and will announce his new cabinet. Lots of speculation about who will go where, but it seems nobody has any idea how big or small the changes will be.

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Cowen has been elected Taoiseach by the Dáil (88-76) and is on his way to Áras an Uachtaráin to collect the seal of office from the President.

Cabinet changes should be announced shortly.

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New Cabinet:

Taoiseach: Brian Cowen (FF)
Tánaiste: Mary Coughlan (FF)

Agriculture, Fisheries & Food: Brendan Smith (FF) [was Minister of State for Children]
Arts, Sport & Tourism: Martin Cullen (FF) [was Minister for Social & Family Affairs]
Communications, Energy & Natural Resources: Eamon Ryan (Green)
Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs:  Éamon Ó Cuív (FF)
Defence: Willie O'Dea (FF)
Education & Science: Batt O'Keefe (FF) [was Minister of State for Housing & Urban Renewal]
Enterprise, Trade & Employment: Mary Coughlan (FF) [was Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries & Food]
Environment, Heritage & Local Government: John Gormley (Green)
Finance: Brian Lenihan (FF) [was Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform]
Foreign Affairs: Micheál Martin (FF) [was Minister for Enterprise, Trade & Employment]
Health & Children: Mary Harney (PD)
Justice, Equality and Law Reform: Dermot Ahern (FF) [was Minister for Foreign Affairs] 
Social & Family Affairs: Mary Hanafin (FF) [was Minister for Education & Science]
Transport & the Marine: Noel Dempsey (FF)


So, apart from Bertie Ahern, the only other person who won't be at the cabinet table will be Séamus Brennan [was Minister for Arts, Sport & Tourism] who last night effectively retired from the cabinet, officially for "health reasons". It had been widely speculated that he would be gone anyway.

An interesting reshuffle. Mary Coughlan becomes Tánaiste (Deputy PM) and mvoes to a higher tier ministry (from Agriculture to Enterprise). Brian Lenihan moves from Justice to Finance, after only 1 year in the cabinet.

Micheál Martin bumps Dermot Ahern from Foreign Affairs in the middle of the Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign. Dermot Ahern goes to Justice - obviously a downward move but certainly not an insignificant department.  Mary Hanafin gets what I would've thought would be a demotion from Education to Social Affairs - her star would seem to be waning.

No changing the Greens or Mary Harney - no big surprises there.

The two new faces to the above list are:
Brendan Smith (FF-Cavan/Monaghan), the new Agriculture Minister. Was Minister of State (i.e. a junior minister) for Children - the so-called "super-junior" ministry , as it gets a seat at cabinet.
Batt O'Keefe (FF-Cork NW) was a junior minister in Environment.

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The more important junior ministries were decided last night:

Chief Whip: Pat Carey (FF) [was MoS for Drugs Strategy and Community Affairs]
Minister of State for Children and Youth Affairs: Barry Andrews (FF)
Minister of State for European Affairs: Dick Roche (FF)
Minister of State for Food & Horticulture: Trevor Sargent (Green)

Tom Kitt gone as Chief Whip. Surprising fall there.
Barry Andrews gets the other MoS position with a seat (if not a vote) at Cabinet. A rather sizable jump there considering he didn't hold any ministerial position before.
Dick Roche and Trevor Sargent remain in the same jobs as before.

Not sure when the remainder of the MoS positions will be announced.


Geographic considerations have long been seen as important in cabinets and Fine Gael have been trying to make points out of Dublin losing 2 seats at the cabinet table. There seems to be plenty of other Dublin representative saround the table however.


Cowen will have be in Belfast today for the much anticipated US Investment Conference, the last major event of Paisley's term. It will also be his first meeting as Taoiseach with Gordon Brown.

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New Lisbon Treaty poll from yesterday's Sunday Business Post:
Conducted 3-7 May
Sample: 1000

Yes: 38 (+3)
No: 28 (-3)
Don't Know: 34 (Unchanged)

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I was going to ask how the Irishmen on the Forum would you rate Cowen as Prime Minister thus far. But then again he has only been in office for a couple of days now, so what's the point? But none-the-less, what do you think of Cowen?

Much too early to say, for me anyway. Much has been made by political analysts in recent days of small segments of his first speech as Taoiseach, which the consensus seems to be that Cowen made remarks disparaging Ireland's increasingly individualistic society. I think too much is being made of his remarks and that his premiership will quite probably be more responding to events than setting the direction (not sure if I'm being clear here).

Anyway, as I say, much too early to give a proper judgement. But no doubt I shall offer meandering thoughts as time passes.

May I ask what exactly is the Lisbon Treaty?

And here I risk all sorts of potentially biased remarks...anyway...

It's the latest Treaty which codifies the functioning of the European Union and which all EU member states must ratify (Ithink by 1 January 2009) for it to take effect. Ireland is the only country that will be holding a referendum on it (by virtue of our own Constitutional rules) and so the only member state where there is a significant chance of the Treaty not being ratified. This Treaty is quite controversial among many in Europe because it is very similar to the proposed European Constitution which failed when put to referenda in France and the Netherlands. (Though I don't think that's a particularly pressing concern in the campaign here.)

Lisbon Treaty wiki article.

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New opinion poll by TNSmrbi published in The Irish Times last week.

The headline figures are provided below along with, for comparison, the last poll; the last TNSmrbi poll; the Election result; and the last TNSmrbi poll pre-election.

	May 07	May 07	Jan 08	Apr 08	May 08
	TNSmrbi	Election	TNSmrbi	RedC	TNSmrbi
Fianna Fáil	41	41.6	34	38	42
Fine Gael	27	27.3	31	29	26
Labour	10	10.1	12	10	15
Green	6	4.7	6	8	4
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	8	7	6
PD	2	2.7	3	2	1
Other	7	6.6	6	6	6

Significant changes for pretty much everyone. Sizable jump for FF in the immediate aftermath of the changeover, back to the levels at the election and Fine Gael fall back below those levels. At 15, Labour are pushing the envelope (apparantly really doing well in Dublin). The Greens and PDS, the coalition patrners, both take a hit.

Some other points from the poll...

Nobody knows the PD leader.

Government satisfaction jumped 13 points to 48%.

And finally...Was Ahern right to resign?
Yes 70
No 24
DK 6

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Figures released today show that Ireland went through it's first quarter of negative economic growth (-1.5% in Q1 2008; following 6% real GDP growth in 2007) since quarterly records began here (*I think* that was in 1997, not certain though). The nosedive has been precipitated by a huge falloff in the  construction industry.

The Celtic Tiger has gone the way of the Norwegian Blue...