Ireland General Discussion

[Јas]

First poll of the new year published in today's Irish Times.

First off my now usual summary...

Major political issues in the year so far:

• Neverending saga of the Taoiseach's financial scandal
• Health: Difficult negotiations with hospital consultants over contracts; Poor relative treatment of Cystic Fibrosis in Ireland highlighted
• Green party leadership failed narrowly to get the 2/3 backing of party membership necessary for it to campaign in favour of the Lisbon Treaty
• Debate over PD's political future continues - clear split emerges within the party
• Benchmarking process calls for no rise in most civil service salaries - not long after generous rises for heads of semi-states, senior civil servants and politicians

The headline figures are provided below along with, for comparison, the last poll; the last tns poll; the Election result; and the last tns poll pre-election.

	May 07	May 07	Nov 07	Nov 07	Jan 08
	tnsMRBI;	Election;	tnsMRBI;	RedC;	tnsMRBI
Fianna Fáil	41	41.6	33	32	34
Fine Gael	27	27.3	31	31	31
Labour	10	10.1	15	13	12
Green	6	4.7	5	9	6
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	7	7	8
PD	2	2.7	2	2	3
Other	7	6.6	7	7	6

Very little movement on the last Irish Times poll. Most noticeably FF are marginally up (+2); Labour down (-3).


Satisfaction Ratings

Surname	Position	Satisfied;	Dissatisfied;	No Opinion;	Net Satisfaction;	Change to Satisfied
Ahern	Taoiseach, FF Leader	40	54	6	-14	-3
Cowen	Tánaiste, FF Dep. Leader	52	29	19	+23	+3
Kenny	Fine Gael Leader	41	37	22	+4	-1
Gilmore	Labour Leader	36	23	41	+13	+6
Gormley	Green Leader	42	30	28	+12	+2
Adams	SF Leader	48	26	26	+22	+7
Harney	PD Acting Leader	35	53	12	-18	Unchanged

Ahern and Harney both above 50% on the dissatisfieds and only getting worse.
Cowen rated surprisingly highly as questions and murmurs continue as to when/if he will make a pro-active move to take the leadership while he continues to be the obvious successor.
Gilmore clearly has a very high non-recognition issue to get over, but he's still new-ish to leadership.

Questions on the Taoiseach
Q: The leaders of Fine Gael and the Labour Party claim that Mr. Ahern did not give the full picture about his finances or his tax liabilities and have called on him to resign. Should the Taoiseach resign, or not?
Yes 44%
No 46%
Don't Know/No opinion 10%

(FF voters: No = 77%)

Q: Mr. Ahern has indicated that he may step down as Taoiseach before the next election. Do you think he should step down or stay on and lead his party into the next election?
Should step down 55%
Should stay on 36%
DK/No op 9%

Q: Do you believe [Ahern] has given the full picture about his personal finances and tax liabilities or does he have further questions to answer?

	May 07;	Oct 07;	Jan 08
Has given the full picture	29%	17%	14%
Has further questions to answer	58%	72%	78%
DK/No op	13%	11%	8%

[Јas]

On a completely unrelated topic and for help elsewhere (specifically an RP)- what is the general Irish view of redheads?

As the question befuddles me greatly, I'll have to pass on this one unfortunately.

[Јas]

From the same poll refered to above, and on the EU Reform Treaty...

In favour 26 (+1 change on October)
Against 10 (-3)
Don't Know 64 (+2)

By party...
FF (32 yes), FG (28-10), Lab (33 yes), Green (30-11) and PD (34 yes) supporters all register more in favour than against.
Sinn Féin is the only party with more against than in favour (15-21).

By class...
ABC1 (32-9)
C2DE (20-10)
F (27-8)

Knowledge of the treaty...
"When asked if they were satisfied with their level of knowledge about what is contained in the Lisbon Treaty, a massive 68 per cent of people said they were dissatisfied with just 12 per cent expressing satisfaction and 21 per cent saying they didn't know whether or not they were satisfied.

One interesting finding is that 68 per cent of those who said they were voting Yes expressed satisfaction with their level of knowledge while that figure fell to just 22 per cent among those who are voting No. Not surprisingly, 88 per cent of those in the Don't Know category are dissatisfied with their level of knowledge about the treaty."

- Irish Times Article

[Јas]

The Sunday Business Post/Red C poll published on Sunday is below.

	May 07	May 07	Nov 07	Jan 08	Jan 08
	RedC	Election	RedC	tnsMRBI	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	32	34	36
Fine Gael	26	27.3	31	31	32
Labour	11	10.1	13	12	10
Green	6	4.7	9	6	7
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	7	8	9
PD	3	2.7	2	3	2
Other	7	6.6	7	6	4

32% is the highest Fine Gael have ever reached in a RedC poll.

Ahern
54% (+12) don't believe his evidence to the Mahon Tribunal
46% don't trust him to run the country
66% believe he should resign if found to have lied to the Tribunal

EU Reform Treaty
In favour 45
Against 25
Don't Know 30

[Јas]

Polls are at this point are just so irrelevant..

Nonsence, they give me the excuse to bump this thread!

except going to show on how nearly impossible it is for FG to surpass FF in sheer numbers, ever.

Well, given where the numbers are and that Ahern is far from in the clear; that the economy is slowing very quickly (esp. construction) and we're looking at another year with a significant fall in house prices - I'll not say it's impossible for FG (even with gormless Enda at the helm) to take a poll lead sometime this year or next.

(32% in a GE would FGs best performance since 1982 btw)

Nov 1982 General - heady days for FG:
Fianna Fáil 45.2% (75 seats)
Fine Gael 39.2% (70 seats)
Labour 9.4% (16 seats)
Workers Party 3.3% (2 seats)
Others 2.9% (3 seats)

How times have changed...

Dissapointed (but not surprised) at the Lisbon Treaty numbers.

What's interesting is the massive divergence between the tnsMRBI and RedC figures.
64% v 30% don't knows?

[Јas]

Listening to RTE Radio 1 reminded me of how much and why I've been trying to avoid the mainstream coverage of Irish politics since the election...

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He'll be gone by the next election. So it doesn't matter.

He'll be gone by the general - but you can bet your bottom dollar that should he still be at the helm, it will have an effect on Local and European elections as well as the referenda on the Reform treaty and "children's rights".

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True. But the next election isn't until 2012.

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Perhaps. But the next election is yadda, yadda, yadda..

See above.

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FF got less votes (%) in 2007 than in Nov1982.. and got more seats. Which goes to show how 1) powerful FF is and was especially before the rise of "cynicism" and 2) that PR-STV isn't really that proportional; nowadays the minor parties skew the results while back then there was only the North Korea Fan Club (WP) and Jim Kemmy.

Well, I'm quite the fan of STV - so I'll step in to say that the '82 result was actually very proportional. But, more importantly, the use of transfers and the failure of some parties to run campaigns in many constituencies will obviously impact proportionality - and rightly so, IMO. I think these two factors explain the most significant variances from strict proportionality in 07, being:
SF (6.3% of the 1st preferences; 2.4% of the seats) who can't attract transfers;
FF (41.6%; 46.4%) run multiple candidates and campaigns in every constituency thus benefitting from lack of party competition in many areas.

Of course, should TBTB allow for more 5 seaters and indeed even bigger constituencies, the second factor would significantly lessen in importance - but I suppose I can't have everything.

[Јas]

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Ah yes I forgot about *that*.

But still about this whole Ahern mess, I think you said it best: "The people have spoken, they don't care". (And 36% is roughly what FF was at before the election campaign last year...)

True.
But the nature of their not caring is changing, I think (if that makes sense). Through he election, the public were willing to accept that maybe Bertie did wrong, but that his circumstances were difficult, his family was breaking up, he cried to Dobbo, and he'd done all right in government so they cut him some slack.
 
Today, while I think the people aren't particularly angry about the ongoing mess, I do think they're now completely fed up with this being constantly in the spotlight; Ahern's excuses no longer offer a great deal of cover - his credibility can't withstand the continuing barage of stories that have come out. Alone it may not be enough, but compound it with woes about the health service; rising crime rates; and an economic downturn - and the public's willingness to listen wanes quite a bit.

I think they're now ready and willing to punish the government and I think they may very well take the opportunity of the referendum on the EU Reform Treaty to do that.

[Јas]

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I hope so. As the government is not going to make the same mistake as in Nice I (the "Ah, it be grand" mistake)

Actually, I wouldn't be too sure of that if I was you. Unless something changes, the Government position on this is going to be woefully abstract (isn't the EU marvellous; yes vote=good for democracy, human rights, etc.) and bare on detail.

In order to win this thing, they need to maximise turnout; put the kooks leading the various no campaigns front and centre to shoot them down; force FG and Labour to stand shoulder to shoulder and loudly make their case; and comprehensively and genuinely explain the significant changes the treaty makes and the consequences of a no vote.

So far, they've already decided not to hold the vote on the same day as the "children's rights" referendum (something that would generate turnout) - so this will probably be the only thing on the ballot.
They have sought to marginalise the kooks instead of putting them up on a platform where people can hear the same tired arguments against that should be relatievly easy to dismiss out of hand.
They continue to bicker with the opposition who themselves will be hesitant to commit unless they see victory as very likely.
And their statements to date have been too wishy washy, without dealing with detail.

My gut feeling today, is that unless at least some of the above changes (and bearing in mind the already discussed unpopular Taoiseach and issues re: health, crime and the economy), the people will reject the Treaty (or at least have it a fairly close run thing).

[Јas]

Ehh.. That's what they did in Nice II and won (except add in "OMG THINK OF TEH POLES!!1111 etc).

There's only so many times you can ask people to go to the polls on the argument that after all these years we owe Europe and that eastern Europe needs our help. The argument loses potency very quickly.

Not hard - in referendums the Irish people seem to like grand fuzzy abstractions and most of those kooks quite like their time in the spotlight.

I disagree - to an extent. In most referenda, the matter is relatively straitforward - abortion; divorce; whatever.

European treaties though are complex tomes which can't come with a handy one page summary. Abstractions is all they've got (simplifies bureaucracy; improves voting system; more accountability; etc). The detail is tough and TBTB have no confidence in the public to be able to take in the detail. There explanation of the treaty will not be what gets people to the polls, unfortunately both sides will resort to the politics of fear with broad sweeping and inaccurate generalisations.

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That Children's rights referendum sounds like one of those 25% turnout dealies to me (like the Bail referendum)...

Maybe so... but every little helps.

[Јas]

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True. I was merely objecting to your claim that the governments position will be "woefully" abstract - it hasn't stopped them winning before.

Not on its own. But it could contribute.

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Did you pay attention at all to the last Abortion referendum? By the end of it I don't think anyone was sure what it was about (That we can thank Dana for really...)

Still infinitely more understandable than the near 200 pages of amendments to the European treaties that we'll be voting on - but indeed, you have a point.

As for not attracting kooks.. Hah! Remember that woman in the Count centre after the "yes" in the Divorce referendum shouting out "you are all a bunch of wife swapping sodomites".

And if the Catholic press (ever read Alive!?) is anything to by, they hate the EU almost as much as they hate sex.

Of course, there are always kooks, but usually there is a 'sensible' opposition group as well with reasonably normal, presentable people making relatively coherent arguments.

And indeed, I used to have the misfortune of having Alive delivered through the letterbox - it somehow had the ability to continually shock me about hardline Catholic attitudes - less said about this the better.

Though it must be said so far the main opposition to the EU treaty I've noticed (but remember I am in a university now..) is from SWP rallies and such. (You have to admit, they do a good job stapling their posters all around town...)

Can't say I've noticed too many SWP posters around myself around (or indeed any posters one way or the other). No sign of them in the city centre or Dundrum/Churchtown way anyway.

[Јas]

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Whoever they are, I don't think I have ever seen them involved in campaigns against EU treaties.

Granted, again the European referenda are again a special case - though I'd submit that the Greens probably came closest to filling that role in times past.

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*Is curious to find out what Jas is doing in Dundrum*

Perhaps these posters are just around, appropriately enough, Connoly station?

(Oh the Trains, don't get me started on the trains... There has been at least two instances which have made me want to declare Jihad on Iarnród Éireann and CIE - but this is diverting from the topic somewhat.)

No longer do I need worry about the travails of Connolly or Pearse station on a daily basis!

I moved to the Dundrum/Churchtown area a few weeks ago - my commute is now much more acceptable on user friendly luas

[Јas]

New poll in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post; as usual RedC is the pollster.

Some Irish political stories in recent weeks:

• Ahern & the Tribunal – the saga continues. Ahern went to the High Court to try and prevent questioning on certain matters claiming privilege. At the tribunal, Bertie faced anothe r2 days questioning wherein embarrasing revelations came out about more money making it's way to Bertie as well as unusual loans made from Bertie's local FF organisation.
• In the face of Ahern's continuing difficulties, the opposition have went after Ahern's obvious successor, Tánaiste & Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen (FF-Laois/Offaly). Cowen is still expressing support, though it seems to be less than absolute.
• Senator Dan Boyle (Green) indicated might be wise for Ahern to name a date of departure. Boyle is a key Green party figure and the move is seen as a sign of some unease by the Green party over Ahern's continuing leadership.
• The Government announced that it has decided the wording for the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty – thoguh it has yet to be published. It is also understood that the referendum will be held in June.
• Ned O’Keefe TD was welcomed back to Fianna Fáil. O'Keefe resigned from FF in November rather than back a vote of confidence in the Minister for Health, Mary Harney (PD-Dublin MW)
• Irish troops finally left for Chad, after a number of delays. IIRC, they make up the second largest national grouping there. Though Ireland has a long record of peace-keeping; this represents one of the more dangerous missions Irish defence force personnel have undertaken.
• Prominent FF backbencher, Mary O’Rourke (FF-Westmeath) openly criticised government policy regarding the provision of ABA therapy to children with autism.
• Half the PD parliamentary party have decided to contest the leadership. Senators Ciaran Cannon and Fiona O'Malley will be contesting the race. Neither seem to have any significant chance at being elected to the Dáil in a General Election.
• A series of statistical returns and economic projections have been released pointing to the fact that the Irish economy is slowing down. House prices continue to slide. The appreciating euro is claimed to be adversely effecting export potential.

So, the poll...

	May 07	May 07	Jan 08	Feb 08
	RedC	Election	RedC	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	36	37
Fine Gael	26	27.3	32	31
Labour	11	10.1	10	10
Green	6	4.7	7	7
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	9	8
PD	3	2.7	2	2
Other	7	6.6	4	5

Negligible changes, no more than a single percentage point on January. Despite sustained pressure on Ahern, FF gain 1. Who could blame him for staying on? The opposition have seemed stronger and have been delivering more sustained criticism of the Government than at any point in recent times - yet they have gotten no returns.

[Јas]

What's the feeling on the turkey vulture?

I think the public's choice of Dustin reflects both the general attitude to the quality of songs we've been sending recently and the belief that the eastern European countries seem to be supporting their neighbours regardless of song quality. So we've decided to send over a joke song with a joke performer. Though there are some who clearly disagree with the decision (Dustin was booed at the qualification event by a small proportion the audience) the general reaction seems to be quite positive.

Dustin would probably have one of the highest name recognitions of any 'personality' in Ireland. He's been on kids TV since the early 90s; has had a few hit singles; and has run a few joke campaigns for President - indeed, he probably gets more write-in votes than anyone else on a regular basis.

[Јas]

Some more from that SBP/RedC poll...

Attitudes towards Bertie Ahern and the Mahon Tribunal

I don’t believe the account Bertie Ahern has given the Mahon Tribunal about his finances:
Agree: 53% (down 1%)
Disagree: 28% (down 1%)
Neither: 19% (up 2%)

I don’t trust Bertie Ahern to run the country after hearing his version of events at the tribunal:
Agree: 50% (up 4%)
Disagree: 39% (down 4%)
Neither: 11% (no change)

Bertie Ahern should resign as Taoiseach if he is to found to have lied to the tribunal:
Agree: 69% (up 3%)
Disagree: 24% (down 3%)
Neither: 7% (no change)

The tribunal shouldn’t be investigating Bertie Ahern’s private finances and should leave him alone:
Agree: 38% (down 1%)
Disagree: 56% (up 1%)
Neither: 6% (no change)

Lisbon Treaty

In 2008, Ireland will hold a referendum to ratify the European Union Reform Treaty. If there were a referendum tomorrow, would you vote for Ireland to sign up to the Reform Treaty or not?
Yes: 46% (up 1%)
No: 23% (down 2%)
Don’t know: 31% (up 1%)

[Јas]

The proposed amendment to the Constitution that would allow ratification of the Lisbon Treaty has been published and I've reproduced it below. I am considerably less than pleased with the  drafting style. (The style of legalese is completely out of place in the context of the remainder of the Constitution.)

They've went out of their way to make quite clear that the Treaty doesn't represent a threat to Irish neutrality, which should help the Aye campaign take the high ground against the most traditional of anti-European arguments here.

The below is proposed to be tacked on to Article 29 of the Constitution:

10° The State may ratify the Treaty of Lisbon amending the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty establishing the European Community, signed at Lisbon on the 13th day of December 2007, and may be a member of the European Union established by virtue of that Treaty.

11° No provision of this Constitution invalidates laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted by the State that are necessitated by the obligations of membership of the European Union referred to in subsection 10° of this section, or prevents laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted by the said European Union or by institutions thereof, or by bodies competent under the treaties referred to in this section, from having the force of law in the State.

12° The State may exercise the options or discretions provided by or under Articles 1.22, 2.64, 2.65, 2.66, 2.67, 2.68 and 2.278 of the Treaty referred to in subsection 10° of this section and Articles 1.18 and 1.20 of Protocol No. 1 annexed to that Treaty, but any such exercise shall be subject to the prior approval of both Houses of the Oireachtas.

13° The State may exercise the option to secure that the Protocol on the position of the United Kingdom and Ireland in respect of the area of freedom, security and justice annexed to the treaty on the European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (formerly known as the Treaty establishing the European Community) shall, in whole or in part, cease to apply to the State, but any such exercise shall be subject to the prior approval of both Houses of the Oireachtas.

14° The State may agree to the decisions, regulations or other acts under—
i Article 1.34(b)(iv),
ii Article 1.56 (in so far as it relates to Article 48.7 of the Treaty referred to in subsection 4° of this section),
iii Article 2.66 (in so far as it relates to the second subparagraph
of Article 65.3 of the Treaty on the Functioning of
the European Union),
iv Article 2.67 (in so far as it relates to subparagraph (d) of
Article 69A.2, the third subparagraph of Article 69B.1 and
paragraphs 1 and 4 of Article 69E of the Treaty on the
Functioning of the European Union),
v Article 2.144(a),
vi Article 2.261 (in so far as it relates to the second subparagraph of Article 270a.2 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union), and
vii Article 2.278 (in so far as it relates to Article 280H of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union),  of the Treaty referred to in subsection 10° of this section, and may also agree to the decision under the second sentence of the second subparagraph of Article 137.2 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (as amended by Article 2.116(a) of the Treaty referred to in the said subsection 10°), but the agreement to any such decision, regulation or act shall be subject to the prior approval of both Houses of the Oireachtas.

15° The State shall not adopt a decision taken by the European Council to establish a common defence pursuant to—
i Article 1.2 of the Treaty referred to in subsection 7° of this section, or
ii Article 1.49 of the Treaty referred to in subsection 10° of this section, where that common defence would include the State.

[Јas]

The citizenship report of Lord Goldsmith has received no coverage over here and I note that in the UK the big focus has been on the suggested introduction of an oath of allegiance for school leavers (not sure how that would work in the North, but anyway).

More interesting to me however was the proposal the removal of the right to vote in Westminster elections from Irish citizens. (A right which is reciprocated under Irish law to British citizens here.) Specifically I'm quite unsure as to the ultimate reasoning behind the decision - it's also a notable decision in that Irish citizens are (IIRC) the largest group of non-British citizens within the UK; and, from a purely political perspective, are surely more likely to vote for Labour than their rivals.

Anyway, I just think it's interesting is all...

[Јas]

Lá Fhéile Pádraig sona daoibh!

[Јas]

Kill them snakes!!1

In many ways, St. Patrick was the Sam L. Jackson of his day.

[Јas]

The cracks are now showing in the government over Ahern's problems with the Mahon Tribunal. Evidence the other week by his former secretary, Gráinne Caruth, has proven to be devastatingly bad for Ahern.

The leader of the Green Party, John Gormley (Min. Environment), and the acting leader of the Progressive Democrats, Mary Harney (Min. Health) have both called on the Taoiseach to make a clarifying statement. Such a statement is quite unlikely to be forthcoming.

The Fianna Fáil parliamentary party still seem to be holding firm behind Ahern (most importantly in this regard, the Tánaiste and Min. for Finance, Brian Cowen - who would rather have Bertie in place for the Lisbon Treaty referendum).

I have my doubts that either the Greens or the PDs are actually willing to walk - but it is a possibility. If wither one of them were to jump, the other would very likely follow and the Government majority would be gone.

Irish Times Breaking News article:
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0327/breaking45.htm

[Јas]

What are the polls showing?

Latest poll was published yesterday in the Sunday Business Post, RedC the pollster.

	May 07	May 07	Feb 08	Mar 08
	RedC	Election	RedC	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	37	35
Fine Gael	26	27.3	31	30
Labour	11	10.1	10	11
Green	6	4.7	7	8
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	8	9
PD	3	2.7	2	1
Other	7	6.6	5	7

All moves within the margin. FF down 2, to about as low as they've ever been.
A good deal of reaction has been to the PDs being down to but 1%.

According to today's Irish Times, Ahern will make a statement to the Dáil on his finances, which have been by far and away the dominating story of the past month.

[Јas]

Breaking News: Ahern to resign on 6 May

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0402/ahernb.html

[Јas]

Full text of resignation speech

Extracts...

"The decision I am announcing today — like all other decisions that I have taken in a lifetime in politics - is solely motivated by what is best for the people.

I have been reflecting on pursuing this course of action for some time. This is solely a personal decision. I have no doubt that a simplistic analysis will suggest that my decision has been influenced by most recent events at the Tribunal. What I announce today is completely inspired by the desire to refocus the political dynamic in Ireland. Recent developments have not motivated my decision.

For the record I state today that nothing could be further from the truth. I look forward to comprehensively dealing with these matters at the Tribunal and robustly refuting any imputation against me."

...

"Therefore I will not allow issues relating to my own person to dominate the body politic as this would be contrary to the long term interests of the Irish people. I want everyone to understand one truth above all else. Never, in all the time I have served in public life, have I put my personal interest ahead of the public good. I have served this country and the people I have the honour to represent in Dáil Éireann honestly. I have provided more details about my personal finances than any person in public life who has ever held office.

While I will be the first to admit that I have made mistakes in my life and in my career, one mistake I have never made is to enrich myself by misusing the trust of the people. I have never received a corrupt payment and I have never done anything to dishonour any office I have held. I know that some people will feel that some aspects of my finances are unusual. I truly regret if this has caused any confusion or worry in people’s minds. All of these issues arose in a period when my family, personal and professional situations were rapidly changing and I made the best decisions I could in the circumstances in which I found myself. I know in my heart of hearts that I have done no wrong and wronged no-one. I look forward to the completion of the Tribunal’s work and I am confident that when it reports, the Tribunal will find that I have not acted improperly in anyway.

Equally I will not allow issues concerning myself or my finances to divert attention from the important job of government at hand. I believe it is in the best interests of the Government, my Party and most importantly the people of Ireland that I set out the time-frame for my departure from office.

It had always been my intention to review my position as Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil in the aftermath of next summer’s Local and European Elections. But having reflected on the need to ensure that the work of my ministerial colleagues is not distracted from by incessant publicity about the Tribunal, I have decided of my own volition to bring forward the date.

I will complete my duties over the course of the next month and following on from my return from the United States and the State Visit to Ireland by the Prime Minister of Japan; it is my intention to tender my resignation to President McAleese on Tuesday 6th May. On that date, I will also tender my resignation as Úachtarán Fhianna Fáil.

In meantime, I will continue to discharge my duties as Taoiseach to the best of my ability, and to work as hard as I have always done, to secure the continued peace and prosperity of the island of Ireland."

[Јas]

Who are the likely replacements for Ahern?

The overwhelming favourite is the current Tánaiste (Deputy PM) and Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly).

If one was to look further then: Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dermot Ahern; Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Micheál Martin; Minister for Transport and the Marine, Noel Dempsey; Minister for Justice, Brian Lenihan; and Minister for Education, Mary Hanifan probably in order of likeliness - though as I say, Cowen is the prohibitive favourite.

[Јas]

"The decision I am announcing today — like all other decisions that I have taken in a lifetime in politics - is solely motivated by what is best for the people.

Ah, but which people, one wonders.

Úachtarán Fhianna Fáil.

Now that's a pretty word.

Úachtarán = President
Pronounced: oo-ct-ar-awn ('oo' as in too)

[Јas]

Interesting news. Did Ahern resign because he felt his time was up or did it have to do with the Mahon Tribunal?

The two are strongly related.

It should be said though that the resignation caught everyone off guard. Though a statement was expected, there wasn't any speculation (that I'm aware of) that he was going to resign.

He was always going to resign at some point during this government's lifetime (which could run until 2012) but the continuous problems with the Mahon Tribunal made it so that he was more than likely going to have to go within the next year. The evidence of his former secretary, Gráinne Carruth, the other week was extremely damaging.

In the end though it looks like Bertie jumped before he was going to pushed.