Ireland General Discussion

[Јas]

That poll is not surprising. That 9% FF has lost were the people who swung towards them heavily on election day, the previous undecideds. Also unsurprising is that Green support has fallen quite a bit in Dublin but is compensated by a rise in the rest of the country.

Not surprising that they're down, but 9% is an awful lot. And given that not much has changed in the alternative, it's quite a shift.

Of course doing a poll now is totally pointless, unless on the unlikely event that John Gormley will decide to pull out (which he won't). Also I wonder if those results were ever to repeated whether Fine Gael would end up being the largest party?

Yes, probably. With Labour's vote up almost 50% and presuming similar to normal FG-Lab transfering and vice versa, FG should overtake FF, Labour should top even 1992 and the two together should be close to 100 TDs.

[Јas]

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It's really both. A sort of reproductive process. The media shapes the people (as children) who will eventually shape the media

Aswell as being reproductive it also tends to be a static one, at least in a television society (which is still the main media in Ireland; certainly of those over a certain age. That and Newspapers) as demand is shaped by people's perceptions, individual culture, etc while perceptions and individual culture are often shaped by this demand (in the media).

Now here of course I'm not saying that Mediums that the only process driving change in society; but in this society Individuals are less likely to have an impact on it by themselves as Television requires a 'mass'. Though with the rest of the Internet this will be changing. (Though probably fracturing; but it's really still too early to really judge.)

Surely the ongoing (and indeed past) changes in media is evidence that it is undergoing a constant process of change and experimentation.

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Of course not. See above. Especially now that our politicians are probably the first generation of those you have known the medium of TV pretty much all their lives.

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Now you are just being pedantic.

Welcome to the Atlas Forum

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From the Lincoln-Douglas record it would (surprisingly enough) need the participants to have major skills in rhetoric and arguement but also significant knowledge of the debate and the facts (And the history of the issue would be very important in the Slavery debate) in itself, what we now is an exchange of vapid soundbites not actual knowledge. Which obviously harms democracy.

Well, how harmful it is depends on how you define democracy. Obviously under your earlier expressed conception this is very true.

Again though, if the people want high level and informed political debate, I'm sure they'd get it - in that sense I do belive the media can be very democratic.

[Јas]

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Sort of. But you make it out to be some sort of concious decision making rather than something which actually shapes how people think and thus how they make decisions.

I don't think these are entirely mutually exclusive decisions. Yes, exposure to particular forms of media informs particular modes of thinking - but also, people are free to choose from a very wide range of media which inform opinions in very different ways. I think that people's choice of media is (to a large extent) a conscious decision and that these decisions, en masse, inform the evolving media market.

[Јas]

As I was bored I decided to use a uniform swing to see what would happen in Dublin south (which hopefully will have nothing to do with by 2012) by those results using 2007 as a basis and amusing the same candidates:

Are we to take it that you've been so enamoured with Maynooth, that a full time move to Kildare North is imminant?

FF 32.6
FG 31
LAB 15.3
GP 11.4
PD 5.9
SF 3.1
OTH 0.7

Well, given a quota of 16.6%, it should be 2 FF; 2 FG and 1 Lab (so Lab gain from Green). But if Lab again run 2 candidates and again only manage about 50% transfer retention here, then the Greens would be reasonably well placed to snatch the final seat.

FF should be fine, even with 3 candidates. Any sort of reasonable transfer retention should put them there or thereabouts, and with even lower than average transfers from those PD votes and maybe even a few Greens, they'd have to be strong odds to take 2.

[Јas]

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True and false. Though more so true than it was in, say, the 19th Century. Generally though I find that there is a tendenancy to rely on the media you grew up on, at least as for average people are concerned.

What I am trying to say is that within media there can be "liberal" strands or "conservative" strands and yes consumer choice plays a part in that. But what is defined as "liberalism" or "conservatism" is often defined by very media that the viewpoint is put across. SKY News and John Waters are after all two very different beasts. But both lean on the right obviously.

Don't be so sure about Sky News - did you not here Julie Etchingham's theories on Tory party policy earlier this week?

[Јas]

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No. Please inform.

Of course it's hard to imagine it being more full of sh!te then your average John Waters article.. but then I'm intrigued and disgressing.

News Article

[Јas]

If the Calendar is correct...

Happy Birthday, Jas.

Thank you

Indeed the calendar is right, the Earth has just completed it's 23rd lap of that great fireball in the sky since I made my first appearance.

Breithlá Sona Duit!

Go raibh maith agat, a chara!

Happy birthday

Thanks!

[Јas]

I'd be pretty depressed If I shared your birthday given some of the events which have happened during (according to wiki):

Well, in the words of one of the most important philosophical influences I've had:
"Well of course everything looks bad if you remember it!"

[Јas]

As seems to be established at this stage Ireland will be the only EU state that will vote on the new (or not so new, depending on your perspective) EU Reform Treaty (because of our constitutional provisions as interpreted in Crotty v An Taoiseach).

The opinion poll cited in the previous page also questioned attitudes to the Reform Treaty. Sample 1000, MoE 3%. Pollster: tnsMRBI

In favour:	25%
Against:	12%
Don't Know/No Opinion:	62%

FTR, in the last poll re: the European Constitutional Treaty in March 2005, opinions were recorded as follows (Same pollster, sample and MoE as above):

In favour:	46%
Against:	12%
Don't Know/No Opinion:	42%

[Јas]

Happy Birthday

Thanks!

I'm happy to see Ireland in favor of the EU Reform treaty.

Well, more than anything Ireland doesn't know what to make of the treaty. It should pass, but the remarkable rag-tag alliance who come out against every EU Treaty did manage an upset on the Nice Treaty when the establishment parties failed to make their case.

Go raibh maith agat, a chara!

Blessed be the powers of google.

[Јas]

I'm not looking forward to the EU treaty campaign at all.. as much as I look forward to any referendum really. Much more full of spite and (generally useless) debate than even General elections.

More spite than General Elections, less than in the various social issues referenda.
(Referenda after all bring out genuine differences in political beliefs.)

I will be voting no, btw.

Dare I ask why?

I imagine it's unusual where you end up siding up with an opposition whose most vocal players are likely to be Sinn Féin, Dana, Jean Marie Le Pen (!) and *shudders* Justin Barret.

The country will vote yes. It has been decided.

If the government has learned it's lesson from Nice I, then yes. (But then this government hasn't proven itself when it comes to learning from past mistakes.)

[Јas]

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Do not profane this post by mentioning the name "Justin Barrett" (pgfm).

As bizarre as it is to find myself on the same side as fascists, terrorists and the editing board of Alive!

Alive! is one of the most remarkable periodicals I've ever had the misfortune to come across. Reading it annoys me much more than can be healthy.

and The Irish Family Press it is exactly the opposite reason to that shower that I will vote no. That is the Undemocratic, centralizing nature of the European Union - which is not something I oppose per se but rather have not been very fond of in recent years. It's not I oppose taking away powers from the Irish State (actually it's something I wish could be done) but to put them into an even more bureocratic body which is even less democratic is something I think everyone interested in Democracy should opposed.

Fair points.

But then again they might take our lattes away.

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I think the entire arguement will be "OMG THINK OF TEH POLES!!111" - after all they did win Nice II on that logic.

Yeah, I was very surprised with the way they ran that campaign - which if it was a significant  factor with voters, is an argument that Ireland voted against self-interest.

[Јas]

Another thing you should know by now about me is that I take every opportunity to bash the Irish Political consensus whenever possible.

It's fair to say that I'm not shocked by this.

As you probably guess this is to be the debate:

Cliche Eurosceptic douche: Ireland's National sovereignty, neutrality is to be under...
Cliche Main Party TD: (Interrupting): Yes... Think of de Keltic Tigah! Without de EU we would not have de Keltic Tigah!
Cliche Eurosceptic douche: Yes.. yes.. but Ireland and <Insert reference to Abortion, De Valera, The Catholic Church, The heroes of 1916, Hunger Strikers or that vague abstraction known as "de nation" depending on preference>
Cliche Main Party TD: Yes.. Yes.. but De Keltic Tigah!
Cliche Eurosceptic Douche: But.. But
Cliche RTE presenter: Mr TD is right, De Keltic Tigah! De Keltic Tigah! It's changed everything!11

You're obviously watching too much Prime Time.

[Јas]

Btw You didn't answer my question:

Sorry, didn't see it.

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I'm an undecided. I'll wait till it's signed and finalised and then take a bit of a read through it.

[Јas]

Ah Okay at least you shall make an informed (I was originally going to write "uninformed" in a Freudian slip, perhaps?) decision according to the vast sum of prejudices once has gathered though life experience your point of view.

The government will of course try and ruin any potential debate as possible to reduce to RTE standards (see above).

Well, the Government is limited by the McKenna Principles on what it can do regarding a referendum. We'll have to wait and see how good a job the Referendum Commission manage on informing the public, unfortunately I think they've never really met my expectations on this measure.

The parties in favour though won't have to do much for a debate to be reduced to an absurd position simply by virtue of who the opposition is. Like I said above, Sinn Féin, the Socialist Party, Dana, Justin Barrett et al, are unlikely to present rational, coherent and sensible arguments.

The standard, tried and tested (if bland and largely devoid of meaning) arguments in favour of EU treaties will no doubt be shipped out again and short still be good enough to carry the day.

[Јas]

Anyway to be pedantic the Government itself is of course limited to what it can or can't do in terms of finances. Of course there are no laws on how TDs will debate on television or on the radio; or how their misinformation will be put across.

True, pretty much. (It depends on how you interpret McKenna and whether they're representing the government and whether you can tie any exchequer funding to their activity.)

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You forgot Anthony Crawley (I think that's his name) - no-one knows what he does exactly but he always seem to randomly appear to attack the EU during referendum campaigns and then suddenly vanish afterwards till the next referendum (save a few letters to the Irish Times) - As for the "absurd position" god help the country once the "opposition" gets its house in order, if that is possible. You would at least think that our TDs would try some intelligent debate to smash up the opposition - instead of screaming, shouting, instilling guilt\fear into the populace and being belligerant.

Frankly, a great many of our TDs simply aren't in a position to offer intelligent debate on such things - it's not like that's what they were elected for or something they've had any practice at.

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Yes.

Oh if only one person - one person - in this whole Anti debate could look up what the Broken Window fallacy was then the Establishment (I do hate that word, but I am being lazy tonight - as well as avoiding studying for my first college exam tommorow. Students!) would be in serious trouble. Observe.

An exam! In the first semester in Arts! Boo no! Ah, the good old days of 1BA in Galway *reminisces*

Cliche representative TD: The EU has been great for Ireland, The Economy of Ireland, End of conflict and war in Europe, Peace, etc, et bloody cetera.
The Voice of Reason: Excuse me, do you know what the Broken window fallacy is? It means you are seeing events in a very straight line without even thinking what might have been. Just because the Economy is very good and we are in the EU doesn't neccesarily mean that those things are linked. It's the nature of life that we can't be certain what happened if we went down paths we may have chosen instead of the ones we did. Perhaps Ireland would really be a knowledge economy and have an even higher GDP (side note: and we all know that's the most important thing EVAR!)  if we didn't join the EU in 1973, that is unless you have evidence to back up your assertion.
Cliche representative TD: Er... Ehhm... TEH POLES!111 De Keltic Tigah!11....

Your little sketches do amuse, I'll give you that.

But, FTR, I don't think you'll find any credible economists who think we'd be in a better position economically had we never joined the EEC. Just about every treatise on the origins of the Celtic Tiger attribute credit to our position within the EEC/EC/EU - whether by reason of the benefits of market access, structural funds or whatever.

[Јas]

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Thus the "Back up assertion" bit. I'm not doubting it's truth so much as why people come about to that said truth. I don't claim any knowledge because I have little knowledge in that field, but then again neither do our TDs really.

This is thing most people have been told this is truth for so long without really doubting it; once the "Back up the assertion" bit comes up it all falls down - as if you have touched some taboo subject.

Free trade between the member states is (and always has been) a cornerstone of the European project. In simplest terms, free trade leads to efficiency gains due to increased competition in a market, which gives consumers greater choice and lower prices. Lower prices means an increase in real income for the consumer. The increased competition tends to eliminate those operations which aren't efficient enough to produce their product at a lower price or to distinguish themselves in terms of quality or some other way. The resources that went into such enterprises was thus inefficiently applied and can now be re-applied in some other way.

(I'd underline that I'm speaking in very broad terms and am not looking for an economic debate on this subject in case some economically incorrigible posters happen to read this and decide to dismantle the effort.)

So, to give the gist, free trade encourages greater economic efficiency which benefits consumers in terms of choice and prices (and so income). etc. etc. Enterprises which are good at what they do can more easily expand and increase their incomes. (Or that's the theory anyway...)

Having put in place low corporate tax rates and being able to offer effectively unfettered access to the European market (and having a young, educated English speaking workforce which was no longer woefully strike prone thanks to Social Partnership Agreements) with improving infrastructure (helped by European funding) altogether helped a great deal.

[Јas]

how many people who will vote 'yes' know that?

No idea.

I certainly didn't know anything about economics before college, and that alone was a significant factor in deciding to do the subject to degree level ahead of other areas I have an interest in but felt I wasn't going to gain a whole lot from.

[Јas]

how many people who will vote 'yes' know that?

No idea.

I certainly didn't know anything about economics before college, and that alone was a significant factor in deciding to do the subject to degree level ahead of other areas I have an interest in but felt I wasn't going to gain a whole lot from.

Strongly agree.

You see I'm not doubting the story that the EU is responsible for Ireland's growth; just that the way it is presented (without question) is just totally wrong.

I wouldn't say 'responsible for' myself, something closer to 'significantly contributed to' (life's great out here on the edge!) but yeah, there's truth in your point on presentation. It might be a combination of reasons: they might believe that the people won't understand it/will be confused by it/will be utterly bored or disininterested by it/whatever.

If it was simply an economic matter though, I don't think it would be a problem. The real difficult issue is explaining to people why so much of our legislative/executive power is seemingly being funnelled along to Brussels. This Treaty will move a significant number issues that were vetoable into the sphere of Qualified Majority Voting. Explaining why this has been agreed to and why it's a good thing is not a simple task. Economic co-operation is one thing, but the dilution of national sovereignty and the movement towards 'ever closer Union' (new EU Foreign Minister; EU Battlegroups; etc.) is quite another.

[Јas]

That's the problem with politics in the western world right now - too much meaningless talk, not enough meat.

That reminds me of a letter I was reading just the other day in The Economist:
"...The freer the speech, the cheaper it becomes. Put differently, the less free it is the more courage and cunning is required to speak out, so there is less blabber.

When speech is restricted, every single word from a poet, writer, or philosopher counts. On occasion it has the force of thunder. Many from behind the iron curtain of communism will thus remember the good old times, when free speech was but a dream. Back then, speaking was an art. And so was listening."

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Which is partially why the debate is being muzzled.

Well I wouldn't say muzzled, but it will certainly be shied away from/constantly re-pivoted to the 'Keltic Tigah' style argument you've set out.

BTW, what's your new username about?

[Јas]

After approving a 16% pay increase to himself just last week which keeps him much more highly paid than the British PM; German Chancellor; or American President, today we get the headline 'Taoiseach urges restraint in pay talks' (RTÉ Online). There are no words...

[Јas]

A new poll will be published in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post, conducted by RedC. It seems the SPB is going to continue it's monthly tracking polls for the foreseeable future.

As is now my custom, here's a quick list of some of the major Irish stories since the last poll:

• Health care debacles Continue: Failures in the cancer screening of almost 100 women emerged; Labour will put forward a motion of no confidence in Minister for Health, Mary Harney (PD-Dublin MW) next Tuesday;
• The Irish stock market suffers a bad week; Housing market slump continues; Unemployment figures creeping upwards;
• Pay rise controversy regarding Taoiseach and Cabinet;
• UDA announces that it's standing down;
• It emerges that Noel Grealish (PD-Galway W) has already had some discussions about eventually joining FF;
• Controversial plans for a waste incinerator in the constituency of the Minister for the Environment, John Gormley (Green-Dublin SE) get the go ahead from An Bord Pleanála (The Planning Board);
• A strike by Dublin Bus caused severe disruption in the north of the city;

Detailed poll results below. In short though, FF take a massive hit (-7), picked up by FG (+4) and Labour (+3). If this is to be believed FF lie but 1 point ahead of FG in public opinion.

	23 May	24 May	23 Sept	28 Oct	25 Nov
	RedC	Election	RedC	RedC	RedC
Fianna Fáil	38	41.6	40	39	32
Fine Gael	26	27.3	27	27	31
Labour	11	10.1	11	10	13
Green	6	4.7	7	7	9
Sinn Féin	9	6.9	6	8	7
PD	3	2.7	3	2	2
Other	7	6.6	6	7	7

[Јas]

They're not any different from Fianna Fail in any way that a non-Irishman would appreciate. (And my impression is that neither of our two Irish posters appreciates the "difference", either.)

I would think Gully is fairly anti-FF and not quite so anti-FG, if that makes sense.

Personally, I feel there are differences (subtle as they may be). These differences are malleable though, hugely influenced by whoever the respective party leaders are. Personally, I have significant issues with the idea of Enda Kenny (FG Leader) as Taoiseach to the point that despite everything (and believing that he should have resigned/been resigned at this stage) I feel that Ahern is probably the more preferable of the two (). (That said there are members of both parties I would preference far ahead of both Ahern and Kenny.) I'd also note that I've not yet 1st preferenced either a FF or FG candidate in an election; nor tended to preference either's candidates very highly where any reasonable choices were present.

In a general ideological sense, I would suggest that FG fit slightly easier into the standard Christian Democratic mould; are probably more pro-European (in terms of the European ideal); and are slightly less 'green' in the Nationalist sense (i.e. take a stronger line against SF and Republicans, more sympathetic to the Unionists, British, etc.).

FF (I think) are more interested simply in being a party of government rather than anything else and are willing to shift positions to meet this goal. A certain portion of their membership have a social democratic side (probably due to the strong working class support they get compared to FG). FF are also pro-Europe but in more of a 'what can we get out of it' sense; they are also certainly more strongly nationalist (as evidenced by there decision to try and set up and compete in the North).

It should probably also be stated that FF are usually less comfortable dealing with coalition partners (Ahern is an exception in this sense); and that FF have a much worse record regarding corruption matters, though this is no doubt linked to the fact that they are more often in power. (I should say though that I don't think corruption is a significant issue anymore.)

In short, yes there are differences, but they are subtle and both party's positions are liable to change quite a bit with any given leader. Neither particularly appeal to me in any great way though I could probably pick out a number of individuals from both parties who I wouldn't have a problem with in government positions.

[Јas]

I'm bored so I'll try and figure out what that would be like with the new constituency boundaries (Nearly impossible because you can never tell where the next Jackie Healy-Rae or Boyd Barrett will be; plus of course personal votes and like. But as I said I am bored.)

Of course.

I'll do my heartland:
DUBLIN SOUTH: The increase in the Green vote is very, very interesting - doubling from the election (almost) I suspect that nationally the Green vote is levelling out enough so that it will probably do better in the sticks than in 2002 but much less well in Dublin; though perhaps DS would not be the worst constituency for them in this regard. At the level of the poll Ryan would easily be elected again; as would both FG members and at least one from FF. Battle between FF and Labour for the final seat. So, 2FF 2FG 1GREEN (Status Quo; but in such a scenario things would depend alot on transfers and it is hard to believe that labour won't win a seat here with 13% nationally given that they probably would have won one this time except for the distaster that was the two candidate strategy.)

I agree with your take on the Green performance.

If this polls numbers became reality, Dublin South would be very difficult to call. Ryan should be able to retain his seat for the Greens. FF and FG both safely return one each. FF, FG and Labour would be competing for the final two seats. Probably the status quo, but with a single Labour candidate and 3 FF and 3 FG candidates; and the significant bundle of O'Donnell's PD votes up for grabs - there are plausible scenarios for different returns.

Anyhow, I would agree with your call: FF 2; FG 2; Green 1 (No change)

DUN LAOGHAIRE: Lost a seat and some of it's most poshest areas to DS in the last re-distrubtion (you can have Foxrock back, thanks) this makes the Green situation nearly impossible but also extremely difficult for FF to hold onto Barry Andrews' seat with those types of scores (it was considered under threat before the election though and then he came only a few hundred votes short at the second count). And what about a potential Labour leader bounce. So, 2FF 1FG 1LAB would still seem the most likely. But perhaps DL will return to it's FG roots in the future..*shrugs*

With the combination of the serious hit to FF and the higher quota, I'd suggest that FF would quite possibly lose Andrew's seat here. FG and Labour should be about to get one each. I suspect it would be between Cuffe and Andews for the last seat, an so long as Cuffe could hang on until then (it will be very interesting to see if Boyd-Barrett runs again and how he would do) he should get the necessary transfers from elsewhere to eek it out again.

So, I'll differ from your call and say: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1; Green 1 (FF -1)

DUBLIN SOUTH EAST: A nearly impossible task to predict the richest (mostly) seat in the country and one which not by concidence imo (despite what some people think) one of the areas with the lowest FF votes. Anyway with those sorts of scores FF would probably lose here quite, quite horribly badly. Gormley (Green) would top the poll; but where would McDowell's first vote go (maybe to FF; but that is not the historic correlation despite the coalitions.) Anyway I'd go with the Status Quo; though possibly a second FG gain from FF. (So, FF 1 FG 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1)

I'd agree that the status quo would be most likely, in fact, I think with McDowell gone, and the FF vote going down, it's very likely.

Don't really see any way FG could get a second seat, if fact I doubt they'd run for one and on that basis I'll only really disagree with you to the extent that I'd say that Creighton would top the poll for FG.

Call: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1; Green 1
(Unchanged)

DUBLIN SOUTH WEST: Again Status quo looks the more likely as the Sinn Fein vote has remained very static since the election. Hard to see an opportunity for a second FG or Labour seat. Yet Leninhan is vulnerable as may be O'Connor. (So, FF 2, FG 1, LAB 1)

On these numbers the odds would be that FF would lose a seat, presumably O'Connors, to SF IMO - though this would depend on the SF candidate and SF efforts on the ground.

Call: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1; SF 1
(SF gain from FF)

DUBLIN MID WEST: This monument to horrible suburban sprawl, complete lack of planning and the (unbelievably) corrupt FF local government in Dublin of the 1980s is another "god knows" constituency. Again a low FF vote; though the PDs still hold here Harney is retiring in 2012 (apparently) and with FG's numbers it's almost impossible to imagine them not taking a seat here which they came close to winning; I could see this being a place where a sitting Green TD will fall flat on his face come 2012 but assuming national swings *shrugs* (There is a possibility btw that Joe Higgins will move down here; personally I could extremists doing well in this seat so it's possible alright. Potential SF target too) So, FF 1 FG 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1

Just where will Mary Harney's vote go - damned if I know (I'm assuming a reasonably even FF-FG split - in which case FG come close to a full quota in this scenario). I'd agree that Gogarty's Green vote will come under pressure here and that SF should be challenging, however there should be enough transfers from across the board to keep him ahead - just about. (It's quite possible though that his vote will deflate badly though and leave him with an unassailable deficit.)

Call: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1; Green 1 (FG gain from PD)

DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL: Surely Michael Mulcahy (FF-DSC) can't continue to do f all for five years and still be re-elected? Labour have good numbers and so do Sinn Fein and with those numbers labour would probably gain off FF; though I would not rule out a Gay Mitchell comeback. Which of course dramatically everything (though I suspect C. Byrne the sitting FG TD here is pretty safe.) funny constituency really. FF 1 FG 1 LABOUR 2 SF 1

Definitely 1 each for FF; FG; and Labour. FF; Lab; and SF competing for the final two and I suspect the Green vote will be decisive in determining the winner; as well as who between FF and Lab achieve better vote management. Very hard to call - but I'm tempted to agree with you.

Call: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 2; SF 1 (Lab gain from FF)

So that would be: FF 9(-1), FG 7(+1), LAB 6(+1), GREEN 3(-1; but only due to seat change), SF 1.

And for me:
FF 7 (-3); FG 7 (+1); Lab 6 (+1); Green 4 (Unchanged); SF 2 (+1); PD 0 (-1)

Which all seems depressingly status quo despite great percentage shifts; though North Dublin is likely to be much more interesting really; especially with Bertie Retiring.

Looks like I'm painting a much more pessimistic view for FF with the lost seats being spread rather evenly among the opposition. On these projections nationally, by my reckoning, FG and Labour would be able to form a stable government with mid to high 80's in terms of TDs.

[Јas]

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Now where does one begin with this...

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HP.

I really don't like or have any faith in the competence or policy judgment of Mr. Kenny. Though, as I've said, I think that Ahern should have left/been forced out, I do think he's more competent.

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I was going to 'yes': but then I couldn't think of any member of FF which I ever consider giving a preference to. Certainly none of the cabinet anyway.

Really?...I find it hard to believe you wouldn't be a big fan of the Minister for Offence Defence:

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That's better. . Anyway you are registered in Cavan\Monaghan so that's understandable; as the only alternative is SF.

And a variety of rag-tag Independents who usually get my vote.

Though I'd say the previous problems of Fianna Fail and coalitions mainly has to do with FF not needing one and Albert Reynolds' being an arrogant twonk (no surprise there).

No arguments about Reynolds. But Haughey wasn't enthused by coalitions either. And the heir apparant, Mr. Cowen, has made his doubts well known also.