Ireland General Discussion

[Јas]

Any idea when the Constituency Commission will release its report(s)?

The Commission is required to report to the Chairman of the Dáil no later than 3 months after the publication by Central Statistics Office of the final population results from the census.

As it happens, the publication of the final population results by the CSO was done this morning.

Will there be one for European Parliament constituencies also?

Yes. It'll be part of the same report.

[Јas]

Can a constituency have more than 30,000 people?

Yes. At least in theory, and subject to Article 16.2.3 of the Constitution.

The mandate in the Constitution isn't that any particular constituency must have at least 20,000 people per TD or at most 30,000, but rather:

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The Supreme Court have interpreted this as follows:

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So, yes, I'd say over 30,000 could be permissible - but it would depend on the context of the decision.

[Јas]

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http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0525/1224316665453.html

[Јas]

It's tough for me to be sure which of the specifics (or more specific than that there will be 158 TDs) is from the commission and what is speculation on the part of the Irish Times.  I've been following NUI Maynooth Lecturer Adrian Kavanaugh's posts on the possible boundary changes at the geograhphy special interest gruob web site, and his latest entry, in response to the Irish Times report, was largely a rehash an earlier entry about what might happen if the Constituency Commission opted for a 158-seat Dáil.  He didn't say definitively that Cavan-Monaghan was going to lose a seat, for example, although I doubt he saw it as likely that part of Lough or Leitrim (wouldn't they like that? ) would be added to keep it as a five-seater.  His didn't call the Laois-Offaly split either.  He didn't seem to take any of the more specific information in the Irish Times article into account (that he hadn't deduced already in a 158-seat scenario, like County Kerry becoming a 5-seater).

I haven't added up his seats by province, although he had said that County Dublin would likely lose three seats in a 158-seat scenario.  Perhaps someone (:cough: Jas :cough:) could re-post (or quote his post) of the Irish Times article, putting in boldface what the Irish Times probably got from the source and in italics what was probably their own speculation.

I'd take the newspaper report as pretty strongly indiciative. They could only have sourced that information from the Commission itself and it seems pretty declarative for the most part. They stuck it on the front page of the paper as well, so I presume that only underlines the confidence of the paper in their source.

Kavanagh's speculation makes interesting reading, and he could be right about quite a bit, but it is just speculation nonetheless.

[Јas]

The Report of the Constituency Commission has just been published.

[Јas]

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www.boundarycommittee.ie

[Јas]

I see some of our TDs are doing their best to promote irony.

[Јas]

A poll in today's Irish Times ends an unusually active month in polling with all the main companies releasing data.

	Election	RedC	B&H	MB	MRBI
	2011	16/9	21/9	28/9	1/10
Fine Gael	36	27	25	28	26
Labour	19	10	11	10	6
Fianna Fáil	17	23	21	27	22
Sinn Féin	10	17	18	19	23
Green	2	4	3		2
Ind/Other	15	23	23	15	21

That 6% registered today for Labour - a 25 year polling low - raises existential questions for pretty much all the entire parliamentary party. Eamon Gilmore is now more disapproved of than approved of by Labour party voters.

FG remain the party with the most support, but on these figures they would lose a significant share of their TDs.

[Јas]

First poll out since the announcement earlier this week from the Government committing to holding a referendum on same-sex marriage in 2015...

[Јas]

The utter awfulness of Ireland's political parties is currently a thing of wonder.

And indeed the people agree.
Going beyond the figures for voting intentions, the satisfaction ratings are more blunt.

From this weekend's Sindo/Millward Brown poll...

Satisfaction Ratings
Govt 21-73 (Net: -52)

Kenny (FG) 25-67 (-42)
Gilmore (L) 16-72 (-56)
Martin (FF) 30-55 (-25)
Adams (SF) 23-59 (-36)

[Јas]

The former Chairman of the Labour Party, Colm Keaveney (who left the parliamentary party voting against the last budget) has joined Fianna Fáil.

I can't recall the last time a sitting TD changed party, rather than simply continue to sit as an independent. (Maybe when Democratic Left folded into Labour in 1999? But even that's not really comparable.)

Current State of the Parties below (E&OE).

Dáil Éireann

Fine Gael	69
Fine Gael (without whip)	5	(NaughtenRA, TimminsRA, Walsh, FlanaganRA, CreightonRA)
Labour	34
Labour (without whip)	2	(Brougham, Shortall)
Fianna Fáil	20
Sinn Féin	13
Sinn Féin (without whip)	1	(Tóibín+)
United Left	2
People Before Profit	1
Socialist	1
WUAG*	1
Independents	17
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1

^* WUAG = Workers and Unemployed Action Group
^RA Members of the Reform Alliance (along with Peter Matthews [i-Dublin South] who has resigned from Fine Gael).
⁺ Tóibín's loss of the whip will lapse in January, by virtue of internal disciplinary hearing decision.

[Јas]

There's been another RedC poll on the 2015 Gay Marriage referendum.

Do you support the introduction of same-sex marriage into the Irish constitution: 76-19

Are those who oppose same-sex marriage homophobic? 41-59

80% of those polled said that people in same sex relationships should be able to have the same rights as traditional families.

41% said they had some reservations about adoption by gay couples.

[Јas]

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http://www.thejournal.ie/nicky-mcfadden-death-1377081-Mar2014/

RIP

[Јas]

Thanks for the link to the B&A data.

Labour voters approve of Enda Kenny more than of Eamon Gilmore

15% of Farmers went to a performance of ballet or opera in the past year
Women were more likely than men to go to any/all cultural activities over the course of the past year.
C2DE voters were more likely than ABC1 voters to go a book reading over the past year.

The plurality of theatre goers are FF voters.
Green voters don't seem to like going to the circus  - but FF and SF voters are much more enthused by it.
SF voters are the most likely to go to public book readings; but the least likely to read a book yourself for pleasure.

[Јas]

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/socialist-td-higgins-to-retire-at-end-of-d%C3%A1il-term-1.1775871

[Јas]

Brian Crowley essentially confirms he plans to run for the Presidency in 2018...

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-south-crowley-and-n%C3%AD-riada-elected-1.1809430

[Јas]

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https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/485064454355570688


Appears to be a 76-24 margin.

[Јas]

[Јas]

Just to add to that, two other useful sources on this and other such matters are:
Adrian Kavanagh's blog
Jason Kelleher's Irish Political Maps blog

[Јas]

Perpetually scandal-ridden FG TD resigns to stand as an independent. Jas may have a more informed view of how he's perceived down in Monaghan.

He was remanded on bail for the assault charge on Wednesday.

Locally he's been essentially running an anti-Heather Humphries (i.e. his Ministerial constituency colleague) campaign for almost a year.

He'll try to be the anti-electricity interconnector candidate (local controversy) and will fail.

Even without the various nonsense going on, his chances of re-election were slight to nil. I'd be pretty surprised if he managed to be vaguely competitive come election day.

[Јas]

Hughie's radio interview is intensely cringeworthy.

The only thing more depressing is that I don't have confidence that my fellow electors will reduce Cllr McElvaney's vote share at the next election.

[Јas]

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/michael-healy-rae-tossed-around-by-a-cow-on-farm-1.2581605