🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[jaichind]

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Scholzomat's party has been eliminated from the German election map:



The map shows which party would win constituencies in the next election, based on current polling. CDU-CSU, AfD and Greens would win all seats. SPD, FDP and Linke win zero.

[Germany1994]

Scholzomat's party has been eliminated from the German election map:



The map shows which party would win constituencies in the next election, based on current polling. CDU-CSU, AfD and Greens would win all seats. SPD, FDP and Linke win zero.

That´s Wahlkreisprognose though, you should take these "polls" always with a huuuge grain of salt, they always have really high numbers for AfD.

And nope, that´s the "Eurotrend" for the European Elections next year, not for the next federal election.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Scholzomat's party has been eliminated from the German election map:



The map shows which party would win constituencies in the next election, based on current polling. CDU-CSU, AfD and Greens would win all seats. SPD, FDP and Linke win zero.

That´s Wahlkreisprognose though, you should take these "polls" always with a huuuge grain of salt, they always have really high numbers for AfD.

And nope, that´s the "Eurotrend" for the European Elections next year, not for the next federal election.

Do you think there will be a big difference between EU and Bundestag results (or polling)?

I don't think so. There is no denying that SPD is only half of what it was in the last election.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

I also like how clearly you can still see the borders of West- and Eastgermany.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Is it a mistake, or is the Wahlkreisprognose showing the AfD winning two or three south Hamburg constituencies? I don't think it's possible.

[Germany1994]

Scholzomat's party has been eliminated from the German election map:



The map shows which party would win constituencies in the next election, based on current polling. CDU-CSU, AfD and Greens would win all seats. SPD, FDP and Linke win zero.

That´s Wahlkreisprognose though, you should take these "polls" always with a huuuge grain of salt, they always have really high numbers for AfD.

And nope, that´s the "Eurotrend" for the European Elections next year, not for the next federal election.

Do you think there will be a big difference between EU and Bundestag results (or polling)?

I don't think so. There is no denying that SPD is only half of what it was in the last election.

You can´t really compare these elections, EU elections always have a much lower turnout and in the past voters often used it as some kind of punishment for the government.

[Germany1994]

Is it a mistake, or is the Wahlkreisprognose showing the AfD winning two or three south Hamburg constituencies? I don't think it's possible.

Once again, these are NOT the consituencies, in Hamburg and some other cities the districts are shown. And I don´t think AfD will come on top there, as I said Wahlkreisprognose isn´t the best "pollster".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This looks like a Landkreis map, no?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

This looks like a Landkreis map, no?

Yes. But it still seems crazy they would give AfD a few districts in Hamburg for example.

I am not familiar with previous results in Hamburg, but the AfD gets no more than 5-10 percent there, so how can they be ahead in some?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

This looks like a Landkreis map, no?

I mixed it up, because Wahlkreisprognose in German translates to constituency projection, but in fact they are Landkreise (districts or counties). In EU elections, which this map is apparently about, there are no constituencies like there are in Bundestag elections.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This looks like a Landkreis map, no?

Yes. But it still seems crazy they would give AfD a few districts in Hamburg for example.

I am not familiar with previous results in Hamburg, but the AfD gets no more than 5-10 percent there, so how can they be ahead in some?

If I had to guess
1) AfD structurally just does better in EU elections
2) the non AfD vote is heavily split
3) some Kreis being better demographic fits for AfD and thus giving them more votes %-wise
which feeds into
4) AfD likely finishing first with high teens to low 20s in select areas at least, enough to give them pluralities in some districts

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Federal Constitutional Court rules that Berlin must repeat the 2021 federal elections in 455 precincts no later than February 11th, 2024.


F*****g embarrassing

[Oryxslayer]

Federal Constitutional Court rules that Berlin must repeat the 2021 federal elections in 455 precincts no later than February 11th, 2024.


F*****g embarrassing

Thankfully for the system, it's not a full redo. While a clear and embarrassing sign of incompetence,  only ordering it in a few specific places shouldn't change the overall results that much. Meanwhile,  if the whole city was redoing the vote, there's the chance of Linke losing a direct seat, which would lose them all their overall leveling seats, which would also snuff out Wagenknechts maneuvers.  While that would be something interesting to see, and perhaps be healthy for Linke in the long term, it would also have lasting effects on the system's perception that are not healthy or helpful especially right now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, minimum disruption is the right course here and shows the court acted sensibly.

[Sir Mohamed]

Federal Constitutional Court rules that Berlin must repeat the 2021 federal elections in 455 precincts no later than February 11th, 2024.


F*****g embarrassing

Why not a full repeat of the election? Isn't that related to the Berlin state election? Why was this a full repeat and not at the federal level?

That said, Scholz must be thankful there's not a national revote.

[President Johnson]

Federal Constitutional Court rules that Berlin must repeat the 2021 federal elections in 455 precincts no later than February 11th, 2024.


F*****g embarrassing

Indeed embarrassing.

At least the Ampel's majority isn't in danger at all. The bigger question is what happens to Linke when they lose a constituency. Their list only won mandates because they won three districts directly, which is exactly the number needed to bypass the 5% threshold.

[Oryxslayer]

Federal Constitutional Court rules that Berlin must repeat the 2021 federal elections in 455 precincts no later than February 11th, 2024.


F*****g embarrassing

Indeed embarrassing.

At least the Ampel's majority isn't in danger at all. The bigger question is what happens to Linke when they lose a constituency. Their list only won mandates because they won three districts directly, which is exactly the number needed to bypass the 5% threshold.

Correct me if I'm wrong, because even though it would be especially interesting, Linke shouldn't be in danger? IIRC when we discussed this previously, most of the 455 of 2K+ were in the central districts rather than east or west. Linke loses if there was a full reelection ordered, in which case they could have lost everything given current polling.

[Harlow]

Moved from the federal thread:

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/online-umfrage-wahl-hammer-in-sachsen-86596620.bild.html

Theoretical AfD-Linke majority in the latest poll in Saxony.

What's the likelihood of an AfD-Linke government? Has Linke not ruled out working with them?

[President Johnson]

Moved from the federal thread:

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/online-umfrage-wahl-hammer-in-sachsen-86596620.bild.html

Theoretical AfD-Linke majority in the latest poll in Saxony.

What's the likelihood of an AfD-Linke government? Has Linke not ruled out working with them?

Yes, every party ruled out to form a government with AfD or even rely on their support. A "negative majority" of AfD and Linke would still be complicated though, especially since the CDU passed a resolution into their books a few years ago to rule out any coalition with AfD and Die Linke.

In Thuringa, such a situation already exists since the 2019 election. Die Linke later formed a Red-Red-Green minority cabinet with SPD and Greens (which have no tradition in Germany and are the exception). Initially, a snap election was planned in 2020 that according to polls at the time would have resulted into a majority government of Linke, SPD and Greens (like in the 2014-19 term), but then the pandemic hit. Later on, the CDU walked back from their initial promise to allow a snap election after they started tanking in the polls and their MPs were endangered to lose their seats (Landtag can only be dissolved with a 3/5 majority, ergo the CDU's support was needed). Earlier in the term, a "stability pact" was agreed upon between the Ramelow government and the CDU to pass budgets and other important things, but the agreement expired last year and wasn't renewed. Occiassionally, FDP provides enough votes for laws to be passed and now the next election is scheduled for the next regular date in the fall of 2024.

[Death of a Salesman]

Moved from the federal thread:

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/politik-inland/online-umfrage-wahl-hammer-in-sachsen-86596620.bild.html

Theoretical AfD-Linke majority in the latest poll in Saxony.

What's the likelihood of an AfD-Linke government? Has Linke not ruled out working with them?

Yes, every party ruled out to form a government with AfD or even rely on their support. A "negative majority" of AfD and Linke would still be complicated though, especially since the CDU passed a resolution into their books a few years ago to rule out any coalition with AfD and Die Linke.

In Thuringa, such a situation already exists since the 2019 election. Die Linke later formed a Red-Red-Green minority cabinet with SPD and Greens (which have no tradition in Germany and are the exception). Initially, a snap election was planned in 2020 that according to polls at the time would have resulted into a majority government of Linke, SPD and Greens (like in the 2014-19 term), but then the pandemic hit. Later on, the CDU walked back from their initial promise to allow a snap election after they started tanking in the polls and their MPs were endangered to lose their seats (Landtag can only be dissolved with a 3/5 majority, ergo the CDU's support was needed). Earlier in the term, a "stability pact" was agreed upon between the Ramelow government and the CDU to pass budgets and other important things, but the agreement expired last year and wasn't renewed. Occiassionally, FDP provides enough votes for laws to be passed and now the next election is scheduled for the next regular date in the fall of 2024.

To elaborate, in the 2019 Thuringian elections AfD won 22 of the 90 seats, RRG won 42, and CDU+FDP won 26. There was no majority for RRG, so all but one of the non-AfD right legislators abstained. Whether this strategy pencils now is not at all clear.

Assuming BSW runs, 89% of Thuringian voters would vote for parties above the threshold.
AfD would have 30.9% of seats, BSW 25.2%, Linke 23.0%, CDU 14.0% & SPD 6.7%. It's impossible to exclude AfD and BSW, so you would need some bizarre BSW CDU SPD coalition to keep AfD out.

[crals]

Why not BSW Linke SPD?

[jaichind]

In all 3 2024 state elections, Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia the AfD is polling in first place.  This might change once BSW gets polled.

[JimJamUK]

Are there any indications of how tight a ship Wagenknecht will run? It strikes me as the sort of party that could attract a few ‘oddballs’ or at the very least an ideologically diverse crowd of candidates, so it’s not guaranteed that all those elected for the party will stay loyal to the agreed position on policy, government formation etc, which would pose problems for stable government if reliant on the BSW.

[palandio]

Are there any indications of how tight a ship Wagenknecht will run? It strikes me as the sort of party that could attract a few ‘oddballs’ or at the very least an ideologically diverse crowd of candidates, so it’s not guaranteed that all those elected for the party will stay loyal to the agreed position on policy, government formation etc, which would pose problems for stable government if reliant on the BSW.

Due to Germany party law, she doesn't really have it in her hands.

What the organizers are trying to do is to manage the order of admission of new members. They announced that they are going to admit 400 members tomorrow, probably mostly (former) LINKE functionaries and local MPs as well as known and proven sympathizers, all selected by hand. Further LINKE rank and file might follow. The hope seems to be that in this way they can keep control in the short-term and also find enough reliable candidates. But medium-term and long-term everything can happen. I mean German parties are allowed to reject members when there are certain reasons (e.g. [former] membership in certain other parties or organizations) but you are not allowed to generally close your party, so enough 'oddballs' will find their way into the party sooner or later, the only question is how relevant they will become.