IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Oryxslayer]

DMR will be releasing a poll done by Selzer this weekend: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/12/iowa-poll-test-iowans-feelings-u-s-senate-race-the-trump-vs-biden-match-up-race-relations-and-other/5346014002/, Selzer and DMR are highly regarded in Iowa, so this poll should give us an accurate standing of where the race stands. If I had to guess I'd say Ernst+4 to 5. But, this should give us a sign of the race in Iowa is actually tightening or if it is statistical noise.

The Iowa Poll will almost certainly rebuke all those crappy Polls from PPP and their leftist cohorts!

oops.

[Xing]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

[SnowLabrador]

Greenfield is now slightly favored over Ernst on PredictIt, not that betting markets are very reliable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am glad she is losing after the way Ernst attacked Braley for going after Grassley's judicial record, having no law degree and chairman of the Judicial committee.

[Brittain33]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1271949046664572929
https://twitter.com/madrid_mike/status/1271946183116652544

[Roll Roons]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

Eh, I think the potential for Republican Senate gains in 2022 is pretty limited. Assuming Kelly wins in AZ and Collins wins in GA, the only plausible Republican targets would be NH, AZ, NV, CO and possibly IL if Duckworth is VP, while they would still have to play defense in PA, WI, NC, FL and GA.

[WD]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

Imo If Ernst looses Dems will probably have 54 or 55, seats. Minus AL, Plus ME,NC,GA-S,GA-R,CO,AZ,TX,MT flip if IA flips

[Brittain33]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

Imo If Ernst looses Dems will probably have 54 or 55, seats. Minus AL, Plus ME,NC,GA-S,GA-R,CO,AZ,TX,MT flip if IA flips

I disagree on TX and GA-R, I think Iowa flips before them. Agree on the others as being fair game for flipping first.

[WD]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

Imo If Ernst looses Dems will probably have 54 or 55, seats. Minus AL, Plus ME,NC,GA-S,GA-R,CO,AZ,TX,MT flip if IA flips

I disagree on TX and GA-R, I think Iowa flips before them. Agree on the others as being fair game for flipping first.

Why GA-R?, its more likely to flip than GA-S in my view, due to the jungle primary.

[Brittain33]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

Imo If Ernst looses Dems will probably have 54 or 55, seats. Minus AL, Plus ME,NC,GA-S,GA-R,CO,AZ,TX,MT flip if IA flips

I disagree on TX and GA-R, I think Iowa flips before them. Agree on the others as being fair game for flipping first.

Why GA-R?, its more likely to flip than GA-S in my view, due to the jungle primary.

I guess I assumed Perdue was safer as an incumbent than an open seat would be.

[WD]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

Imo If Ernst looses Dems will probably have 54 or 55, seats. Minus AL, Plus ME,NC,GA-S,GA-R,CO,AZ,TX,MT flip if IA flips

I disagree on TX and GA-R, I think Iowa flips before them. Agree on the others as being fair game for flipping first.

Why GA-R?, its more likely to flip than GA-S in my view, due to the jungle primary.

I guess I assumed Perdue was safer as an incumbent than an open seat would be.

Fair enough, thats a good point

[Xing]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

I can’t see IA being less than seat number 53 for Democrats, and even if that’s the case, where are Republicans going to gain four seats? AZ and NH would be vulnerable, and maybe they could flip NV if it’s a real red tsunami, but CO really doesn’t seem within reach for them, even under very good conditions. Unless Democrats end up with an absolutely terrible recruit in what ends up being an open seat, I really don’t seem them getting any more seats.

[YE]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

Imo If Ernst looses Dems will probably have 54 or 55, seats. Minus AL, Plus ME,NC,GA-S,GA-R,CO,AZ,TX,MT flip if IA flips

I disagree on TX and GA-R, I think Iowa flips before them. Agree on the others as being fair game for flipping first.

Why GA-R?, its more likely to flip than GA-S in my view, due to the jungle primary.

I guess I assumed Perdue was safer as an incumbent than an open seat would be.

Fair enough, thats a good point

Being an incumbent is less of an advantage these days especially in a polarized state like Georgia. If Biden wins the state, I’d say Ossoff is favored to win outright. As for the special, I’ll believe Dems can win a runoff in Georgia when I see it.

[voice_of_resistance]

Look. If Trump could defy the midterm rule to have a net gain of 2 senate seats in 2018 by making up sh**t about a caravan and milking the Kavanaugh thing, there's no way to say that 2022 is going to be a disaster for Dems in the Senate. The only seats in any real danger would be AZ, NH, and GA depending on who wins the special this year. Meanwhile, Dems have a bunch of targets to go on offense at. No matter midterm year, red wave, blue wave, Dems win when they show up.

[woodley park]

Nice to see the consensus shifting on Iowa. This was never going to be safe R -- it's titanium toss-up.

Ernst hugged Trump during impeachment and bragged about how the whole thing was going to hurt Biden, and voted to acquit without hearing any evidence. She has been a blank check for Trump's corruption, and it was always bound to come back to haunt her. Now that the world is falling down around Trump, its a bad look to be tied at the hip to him. Greenfield can win this.

[One Term Floridian]

Is there a particular reason that Ernst has been cratering in the polls lately? I actually had this as a borderline Safe R race until recently.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Is there a particular reason that Ernst has been cratering in the polls lately? I actually had this as a borderline Safe R race until recently.

Implosion of the Republican brand thanks to Trump's incompetence catching up to it.

[Farmlands]

Is there a particular reason that Ernst has been cratering in the polls lately? I actually had this as a borderline Safe R race until recently.

My take, the race never was Safe R to begin with, because Ernst never had good approvals (3rd most unpopular senator) and recent polling is just showing what happens when that's the case. Gotta update my prediction map.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Is there a particular reason that Ernst has been cratering in the polls lately? I actually had this as a borderline Safe R race until recently.

The polls (and Ernst's approvals) have been middling for a while now. It's just been discounted because polling has been pretty spread out and because of an assumption Iowa is borderline safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Folks, Hilary was a bad fit for IA and she wasnt helped by Patty Judge running a sacrificial lamb race against Grassley. Things have changed since 2016, and Dems have 3 incumbent Reps in IA and 4th District is a tossup. 2016 isnt gonna last forever .

Both Hubbard and Cordray lost by 3.5 in a 3.5 percent unemployment,  IA and OH are battlegrounds

[Senator Spark]

Ernst not polling so well recently but I think she will rebound and hold this seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst not polling so well recently but I think she will rebound and hold this seat.

Okay and Ernst approvals are similar to Trump's at 37/43 percent

[VAR]

Ernst not polling so well recently but I think she will rebound and hold this seat.

Okay and Ernst approvals are similar to Trump's at 37/43 percent

The Selzer poll shows her approval rating at 49/39.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

3 consecutive polls show her behind