2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Wisconsin

[Gass3268]

Next week Tuesday is the hearing!

https://twitter.com/redistrictnet/status/1725516807451160904?s=46

[henster]

Notable that after December 1st even if Protasiewicz is impeached and removed Evers can appoint a replacement who serves until 2031 no special election necessary. If the GOP somehow impeaches and removes her before December whomever is appointed would have to run in a special election in April coinciding with the GOP Prez primary. So there's two weeks left before impeachment is basically meaningless for Republicans.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1705349044640297315

[Oryxslayer]

snip

AKA it's not happening cause the holiday

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1726976563051425922?t=4XEIWvT-fg1x8WQfjpRp4w&...

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1726988759349256546?t=ooe_HeW0AGxnTcMxAz9J7w&...

https://twitter.com/ET_Californian/status/1726979467422368133?t=yIAmZKRvWtbL0RJb...

Live updates

[Nyvin]

Rebecca Bradley really doesn't seem like an intelligent person.

But anyway - Yeah, I'm almost positive new maps are coming.  The 4 liberal justices are all on a warpath here, it's pretty obvious.  Surprisingly the most tame liberal justice is actually Protasiewicz, lol.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cope and seethe, Judge Bradley!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rebecca Bradley really doesn't seem like an intelligent person.

But anyway - Yeah, I'm almost positive new maps are coming.  The 4 liberal justices are all on a warpath here, it's pretty obvious.  Surprisingly the most tame liberal justice is actually Protasiewicz, lol.

Ye she was the quietest; the other three were much more vocal, and Karofskiy actually seemed to have a decent grasp of certain redistricting concepts which was nice to see.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1738300946839474433

[Nyvin]

They didn't invalidate the 2022 results, so in the State Senate only the even numbered districts will be up in 2024.

Great news though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They didn't invalidate the 2022 results, so in the State Senate only the even numbered districts will be up in 2024.

Great news though.

Wouldn't this mean that some voters could end up with zero or two senators until the subsequent election?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1738305271427104780?t=2FhQrjDHqp52N4yfZm7mq...

Incoming soft Dem gerrymander that corrects for partisan sorting. See the past few pages where we explored these possibilities.

And remember,  if you want to create hypothetical maps, 3 state house seats nest inside one senate seat.  So the "geographical corrections" have to function on both levels.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yay, *finally*.

While geography definitely favors Rs, I don't think the geography bias is as bad at the State Legislature level because smaller cities like Eau Claire, La Crosse, Appleton, and Green Bay can sustain D-leaning seats on their own. Dems will honestly probably gain most of their seats on the redrawn fair map out of these sorts of places.

The Congressional level, 8 seats is just an unfortunate number for Dems since both metro Madison and Milwaukee Dem sinks are sort of "natural" seats, and there aren't large enough D cities outside of those to sustain other D leaning CDs.

[Oryxslayer]

Yay, *finally*.

While geography definitely favors Rs, I don't think the geography bias is as bad at the State Legislature level because smaller cities like Eau Claire, La Crosse, Appleton, and Green Bay can sustain D-leaning seats on their own. Dems will honestly probably gain most of their seats on the redrawn fair map out of these sorts of places.

The Congressional level, 8 seats is just an unfortunate number for Dems since both metro Madison and Milwaukee Dem sinks are sort of "natural" seats, and there aren't large enough D cities outside of those to sustain other D leaning CDs.

Just FYI for you and everyone else, maybe not needed in this response but important for the future, is this has 0 effect on the congressional plans at the moment. The case is solely the legislative maps. Maybe there will be a followup, but it could only happen for 2026 given the present timeframe.

[Brittain33]

Yay, *finally*.

While geography definitely favors Rs, I don't think the geography bias is as bad at the State Legislature level because smaller cities like Eau Claire, La Crosse, Appleton, and Green Bay can sustain D-leaning seats on their own. Dems will honestly probably gain most of their seats on the redrawn fair map out of these sorts of places.

The Congressional level, 8 seats is just an unfortunate number for Dems since both metro Madison and Milwaukee Dem sinks are sort of "natural" seats, and there aren't large enough D cities outside of those to sustain other D leaning CDs.

I can be a broken record on this but Milwaukee being a “natural” Dem pack is the result of conservative housing discrimination which created a ghetto, and that this minimizing the political power of the residents was a deliberate goal, not a regrettable natural phenomenon.

[patzer]

Yay, *finally*.

While geography definitely favors Rs, I don't think the geography bias is as bad at the State Legislature level because smaller cities like Eau Claire, La Crosse, Appleton, and Green Bay can sustain D-leaning seats on their own. Dems will honestly probably gain most of their seats on the redrawn fair map out of these sorts of places.

The Congressional level, 8 seats is just an unfortunate number for Dems since both metro Madison and Milwaukee Dem sinks are sort of "natural" seats, and there aren't large enough D cities outside of those to sustain other D leaning CDs.

I can be a broken record on this but Milwaukee being a “natural” Dem pack is the result of conservative housing discrimination which created a ghetto, and that this minimizing the political power of the residents was a deliberate goal, not a regrettable natural phenomenon.

I guess the natural solution to that would be merging Waukesha county back into Milwaukee county, and also merging the city of Milwaukee with the county?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rebecca Bradley really doesn't seem like an intelligent person.

The only reason she's even on the court is she's the daughter of a GOP megadonor, LOL.

[Nhoj]

Yay, *finally*.

While geography definitely favors Rs, I don't think the geography bias is as bad at the State Legislature level because smaller cities like Eau Claire, La Crosse, Appleton, and Green Bay can sustain D-leaning seats on their own. Dems will honestly probably gain most of their seats on the redrawn fair map out of these sorts of places.

The Congressional level, 8 seats is just an unfortunate number for Dems since both metro Madison and Milwaukee Dem sinks are sort of "natural" seats, and there aren't large enough D cities outside of those to sustain other D leaning CDs.

I can be a broken record on this but Milwaukee being a “natural” Dem pack is the result of conservative housing discrimination which created a ghetto, and that this minimizing the political power of the residents was a deliberate goal, not a regrettable natural phenomenon.

Yes this is correct and Dane is really not a pack at all, its one of the few places in this country where Rural parts of the county Vote D and even surrounding counties are more competitive places than elsewhere.  Cracking Dane to create another seat is only taboo aesthetically [Ironically our D WI posters seem to be the most uncomfortable with it] But realistically madison isnt the same city it was  10-15 years ago anymore the closed culture of it is well and gone.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yay, *finally*.

While geography definitely favors Rs, I don't think the geography bias is as bad at the State Legislature level because smaller cities like Eau Claire, La Crosse, Appleton, and Green Bay can sustain D-leaning seats on their own. Dems will honestly probably gain most of their seats on the redrawn fair map out of these sorts of places.

The Congressional level, 8 seats is just an unfortunate number for Dems since both metro Madison and Milwaukee Dem sinks are sort of "natural" seats, and there aren't large enough D cities outside of those to sustain other D leaning CDs.

Just FYI for you and everyone else, maybe not needed in this response but important for the future, is this has 0 effect on the congressional plans at the moment. The case is solely the legislative maps. Maybe there will be a followup, but it could only happen for 2026 given the present timeframe.

Reminder to everybody that the legal argument used against the legislative maps does not apply to the Congressional map.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1738305271427104780?t=2FhQrjDHqp52N4yfZm7mq...

Incoming soft Dem gerrymander that corrects for partisan sorting. See the past few pages where we explored these possibilities.

And remember,  if you want to create hypothetical maps, 3 state house seats nest inside one senate seat.  So the "geographical corrections" have to function on both levels.

Another important part of the decision:

In a separate order Friday, the court's majority appointed two experts to oversee its redistricting process, laying out deadlines for parties who want to submit new maps.

Under the order, Bernard Grofman and Jonathan Cervas will serve as the court's consultants in the case. Grofman is a professor of political science and an adjunct professor of economics at the University of California, Irvine. Cervas is a redistricting expert at Carnegie Mellon University.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1738384045505909028?s=20

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a non-partisan map I threw together awhile ago. Obviously divide these into thirds for the Assembly:




It has 16 Biden seats and 17 Trump seats, which is actually better than I'd expect, that Kenosha-based 21st is the median seat. It also has the exact same alignment for Evers/Michels in 2022 even though Evers did a little over a point and half better than Biden AND manages to even be identical for 2022 Senate with a Republican victory and is notably almost identical in 2018, only the Appleton-based 18th flips to Walker. So...yeah pretty polarized.

Those Green Bay and Appleton seats voted a bit to the right of the national PV too, both are Biden 50.6-50.7 (as did the Eau Claire-based one in the west actually but Democrats seem to have some residual downballot strength there), the 7th is close to a complete match for the national PV, and that 29th voted like the Green Bay and Appleton-based seats but is probably a stronger for the GOP downballot district still. So 16 seats is possibly close to a ceiling for the Democrats. The Republicans meanwhile could probably win 22 in a true wave, which is exactly 2/3 and one could argue even the Janesville and La Crosse-based seats aren't truly out of reach there although they seem pretty inflexible giving Barnes about the same as Biden...actually he did slightly better in the Janesville seat. But in reality the Republicans are probably looking at something like 17-20 seats.

[walleye26]

Here's a non-partisan map I threw together awhile ago. Obviously divide these into thirds for the Assembly:




It has 16 Biden seats and 17 Trump seats, which is actually better than I'd expect, that Kenosha-based 21st is the median seat. It also has the exact same alignment for Evers/Michels in 2022 even though Evers did a little over a point and half better than Biden AND manages to even be identical for 2022 Senate with a Republican victory and is notably almost identical in 2018, only the Appleton-based 18th flips to Walker. So...yeah pretty polarized.

Those Green Bay and Appleton seats voted a bit to the right of the national PV too, both are Biden 50.6-50.7 (as did the Eau Claire-based one in the west actually but Democrats seem to have some residual downballot strength there), the 7th is close to a complete match for the national PV, and that 29th voted like the Green Bay and Appleton-based seats but is probably a stronger for the GOP downballot district still. So 16 seats is possibly close to a ceiling for the Democrats. The Republicans meanwhile could probably win 22 in a true wave, which is exactly 2/3 and one could argue even the Janesville and La Crosse-based seats aren't truly out of reach there although they seem pretty inflexible giving Barnes about the same as Biden...actually he did slightly better in the Janesville seat. But in reality the Republicans are probably looking at something like 17-20 seats.

This is a solid map, but I’ll give you my two cents in order to make it a bit more competitive and less republicans-leaning: get Stevens Point, Whiting, Plover, and the rest of the northern half of Portage County into District 9. I’ve drawn a district that includes Wausau, Weston, Rothschild, Plover, Stevens Point, and Wisconsin Rapids that is about R+3, you could make a slightly “cleaner” map that would be about R+6. I’m guessing 9 and 10 are both about R+10-12. Then you could take district 10’s area east into rural Northern Outagamie county (Taking in a lot of R+35 towns).

Once that is done, replace the loss in 19 by going south into 25, taking in townships in Eastern Fond du Lac County that are R+50. Then have 24/25 take in the rest of Dodge County by Beaver Dam and Waupun, along with small towns like Alto and Oakfield. Then 23 can grab the city of North Fond du Lac (only Trump +9) and some blue precincts in the city of Fond du Lac. It’s possible if you include FDL and  Oshkosh in the same district you can get it down to a Trump +6 district.

Again, I like your map, but if you shift some things in Stevens Point/Fox Valley a bit you can make some of those districts (I would guess to be about R+12-14) to be more like R+6.

[Vosem]

Rebecca Bradley really doesn't seem like an intelligent person.

The only reason she's even on the court is she's the daughter of a GOP megadonor, LOL.

I mean, she won an election. You can say this sort of stuff for appointed officials (although even there the line can be blurry: Rachel Kovner is the daughter of a Republican megadonor but kind of famously also had the best grades in the history of Stanford Law), but Rebecca Bradley is on the Wisconsin Supreme Court because Wisconsin voters put her there.

[Nyvin]

I made maps with as many counties kept intact as I possibly could.  It came out to 16 Biden seats for the Senate, and 46 Biden seats in the House, but there's tons of competitive seats in both maps in both directions.   Pretty sure either party could get majorities in either chamber here, but it would be easier for Dems in the House though.

House districts are nested inside the Senate districts.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/e4e5d471-5c8a-4541-a8c3-477cf0b462d0





https://davesredistricting.org/join/663c80c9-ba11-4911-82ac-ebc4c81bde63

Sheboygan makes for such a perfect House district, it's a crime there isn't one there now.

Also the skew is quite good, but the Madison/Milwaukee seats distort the far Democrat end of it. I think that's inevitable.

[walleye26]

I made maps with as many counties kept intact as I possibly could.  It came out to 16 Biden seats for the Senate, and 46 Biden seats in the House, but there's tons of competitive seats in both maps in both directions.   Pretty sure either party could get majorities in either chamber here, but it would be easier for Dems in the House though.

House districts are nested inside the Senate districts.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/e4e5d471-5c8a-4541-a8c3-477cf0b462d0





https://davesredistricting.org/join/e4e5d471-5c8a-4541-a8c3-477cf0b462d0

Sheboygan makes for such a perfect House district, it's a crime there isn't one there now.

Also the skew is quite good, but the Madison/Milwaukee seats distort the far Democrat end of it. I think that's inevitable.

This is a solid map. I can never figure out how to post my maps from DRA on here, they never seem to post correctly, but this is similar to what I do. Sheboygan absolutely should be it’s own seat, and I like what you did with the Appleton seat. I think that Democrats will realistically get a Green Bay and Appleton-based Senate district (along with a clear Sheboygan house seat, plus Appleton suburban seats, such as a Menasha+Neenah D+7 house seat). I also think that the awful split of Beloit and Iowa County gets fixed.

[Gass3268]

Nyvin - It appears you posted the link to your Senate map twice.