Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1496922915954216962?s=20&t=sVBQQ57...

So much for the “Russia has a superior army” argument. All I’m seeing is them getting their asses handed back to them.

If the destruction of this force is correct, we should not be overly optimistic.
It is my understanding that the Russian force at the Hostomel airport, was a small-ish troop force that was dropped by plane (airborne unit) or flown-in by large helicopters.

The Kyiv Post on Twitter posted an hour and a half ago that Antonov International Airport is taken over by Russian forces, via Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to the head of the president's office.

That is old news, combat ongoing

[ꙮ]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Kazakhstan has been using vague weasel words to obscure their stance appears to have surprisingly condemned it.

Not that surprising, Tokayev has been trying to get ahead of the discontent by portraying himself as a reformer. Kazakhstan has always had to walk a careful line between Moscow and Washington due to its major economic ties to both so Tokayev isn't going to risk another uprising while the Russians are busy in Ukraine. He's turned out to be a lot more dynamic than he was given credit for.

Markets have been up since Biden started speaking. What exactly was the market pricing in before, NATO to sever diplomatic relations with Russia? I don't understand what's going on here.

There was talk of SWIFT disconnection and a complete end of Russian material and energy exports to Europe. But of course the cost of such a move would be gigantic and would be particularly felt by Germany, which already is seeing unprecedented inflation. The measures Biden has mentioned so far are, compared to what was expected, extremely mild.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1496921478721327110

This is horrifying. Kabul all over again.

There's at least some difference in that a very solid portion of the Ukrainian population is actually armed and ready to resist. The airports and plains of the east and north will fall fairly easily (though by some reports the forces in Donbass are putting up a surprisingly good fight since at least they were prepared) but occupying the cities or making any moves west of Kiev is an entirely different matter. We'll see whether Putin settles for crippling the Ukrainian military, occupying contested regions and imposing a puppet government like in Kosovo or if he goes full Iraq and tries taking the whole country.

Whatever price Putin pays will come from the occupied Ukrainian and anti-war sentiment from the Russian population, not NATO, America or the European Union. Obviously Putin deserves the overwhelming majority of the blame here for a completely unjustified invasion but leading the Ukrainians on to expect some kind of serious response or protection led to this outcome. The precedents set in Kosovo, Iraq, Libya and Syria contrasted with the continuing survival of the North Korean regime also make clear that disarming one's WMDs and relying on the "international community" is downright suicidal.

But on the note of the Russian reaction, the protests that have erupted were immediate and widespread, in at least 50 cities and with 700 arrests in Moscow alone. The protests in St. Petersburg were particularly large

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1496909369069359113

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1496922972929814529

Even smaller cities like Smolensk and Nizhny Novgorod had protests and pickets

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1496895007122415624

https://twitter.com/svtv_news/status/1496926000504279040

[jaichind]

It seems Modi and Putin spoke on the phone.  The Indian readout seems to indicate that Modi wanted this crisis to be solved in a peaceful way but mostly focused the conversation on the safety of Indian citizens in Ukraine.

[TheReckoning]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

We have people like Forumlurker who literally want to send Russia back to the Stone Age and kill whoever they view as an enemy. Opposing this isn’t being a “contrarian,” it’s standing up for what’s right. What Russia is pulling right now is evil without a doubt, and Ukraine should have international support, but fantasizes about destruction aren’t right.

[ꙮ]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

We have people like Forumlurker who literally want to send Russia back to the Stone Age and kill whoever they view as an enemy. Opposing this isn’t being a “contrarian,” it’s standing up for what’s right. What Russia is pulling right now is evil without a doubt, and Ukraine should have international support, but fantasizes about destruction aren’t right.

Forumlurker is a lunatic who speaks only for himself.

That doesn’t change the fact that you’re being ridiculous. Wanting Russia to lose an unjustified war of aggression is not wrong. Winning a war requires defeating the opposing forces. Wanting that is not wrong. There is nothing wrong at all with hoping that that occurs in this case. Does that mean that we should hope for war crimes or “annihilating Russia”? No. But unless you were specifically talking about Forumlurker nobody was saying that.

[Damocles]

Where’s Gorby?

[ultraviolet]

Do we know what the US sanctions are exactly?

[Bismarck]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

They have your government in their pocket to prevent any serious consequences.

[John Dule]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

We have people like Forumlurker who literally want to send Russia back to the Stone Age and kill whoever they view as an enemy. Opposing this isn’t being a “contrarian,” it’s standing up for what’s right. What Russia is pulling right now is evil without a doubt, and Ukraine should have international support, but fantasizes about destruction aren’t right.

Forumlurker is a lunatic who speaks only for himself.

That doesn’t change the fact that you’re being ridiculous. Wanting Russia to lose an unjustified war of aggression is not wrong. Winning a war requires defeating the opposing forces. Wanting that is not wrong. There is nothing wrong at all with hoping that that occurs in this case. Does that mean that we should hope for war crimes or “annihilating Russia”? No. But unless you were specifically talking about Forumlurker nobody was saying that.

From context I assumed he was specifically referring to him.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496933571352662028

[GALeftist]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

[Bismarck]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

They’re not waiting for anything. They have no intention of hurting Russia. Russia owns them because they embraced the green agenda.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496933571352662028

Winds are projected to be northerly. So enjoy that Belarus.

[jaichind]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

SWIFT is a payment system.  So if you cut Russia off from SWIFT you are really just saying Germany and Italy can no longer buy Russian energy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

India has to tread carefully as Russia is their main arms supplier.

Arms they need to halt the Chinese from continually violating their territorial integrity.

This is why what PRC and Russia has is better than an alliance.  It is really two Great Powers that are coupled and act as one as needed and act separately as part of plausible deniability when necessary.  India's position on Russia would be a lot more negative if PRC and Russia were official allies.

This also highlights that Russia aligning with China is good for Russia, but not "too good" for Russia. If it goes far enough, it becomes a massive net bad for Russia. Vietnam is another country that would be strongly anti-Russia if it was too close to China.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

We have people like Forumlurker who literally want to send Russia back to the Stone Age and kill whoever they view as an enemy. Opposing this isn’t being a “contrarian,” it’s standing up for what’s right. What Russia is pulling right now is evil without a doubt, and Ukraine should have international support, but fantasizes about destruction aren’t right.

The warmongers on both sides are the best of friends. Decades of American and NATO aggression empowered the lunatic neoimperialists in the Russian government, and this in turn will surely give the neocons a great wind to their sails. That there are some idiots on the left still defending Putin doesn't somehow mean that the people responsible for the worst debacles of the 21st Century are suddenly right about everything.

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

The last German PPI reading was 25 percent and about half of their raw material imports, most crucially gas, come from Russia. Obviously Putin calculated that the Germans would pay a higher price from sanctions than he would and so far it looks like he's right. Another point in favour of nuclear power, which the Germans are inexplicably scaling back.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is against the national interests of Germany if Russia doesn't have access to SWIFT. No wonder the government is opposed to that.

[jaichind]

This also highlights that Russia aligning with China is good for Russia, but not "too good" for Russia. If it goes far enough, it becomes a massive net bad for Russia. Vietnam is another country that would be strongly anti-Russia if it was too close to China.

Over in PRC I suspect they are most likely thinking

"Oh oh.... We are allied with a potentially and actually unstable person"
"After this blow over maybe Putin needs to go.  This Medvedev fellow looks pretty stable ..."

[President Johnson]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

My sense is that they don't want to "shoot the final bullet" at this moment already, but I think it's inevitably going to happen.

[jaichind]

Both the PRC and Russia have built up alternative payment messaging systems so on the medium run I suspect Russian can survive losing access to SWIFT but it will be very painful on the short run.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496933571352662028

Winds are projected to be northerly. So enjoy that Belarus.

That's bullsh**t.

So bit of a summary of the first day.

Russians started with a massive bombardment of every major Ukrainian airport, AA defense system, ammo depot and fuel station. At this point, we don't know the extent of the damages sustained during the attacks but experts say it's likely to be a serious blow and Russian warplanes/Helicopters flying across the western part of the country point to that as well.

Ukrainian army in the east of country handled the attacks well, counter-attacked, and even got the better of invading forces in many instances, These are the best trained and most battle-hardened troops. Particularly in Kharkiv Russians seem to have lost a lot, which I'm doubly happy about because that's where the Georgian contingent is stationed.

No such luck in the west. Along the Belarussian borders and Crimea, the defenses turned out to be ill-prepared and too light to handle the masses of Russian columns. Russians reached two major bridges in the south of the Dniepr river very fast.

In the near future, it's likely that Russians will try to blockade/take Kiyv. And the entire length of the Dniepr river - essentially encircling the best Ukrainian troops in the east and leaving them with little to no support/supply. The most dangerous right now is the situation around Kherson where Russians seem to be gallivanting towards Kyiv almost unchallenged. If Ukraine can't stop those columns this is going to be a short war.

The defenses across the Crimean border seem to have been criminally inadequate. If they had been stopped at the chokepoint we would be celebrating a successful day for Ukrainian defense forces overall, that's the key direction that significantly changes things in Russia's favor. The lack of response from Ukraine in that region seems to point to 2 things. 1) Russian missile strikes succeeded in breaking down key Ukrainian positions there and 2) Those positions were not adequately prepared and fortified, to begin with, which is a crime given how much of this assault was almost public knowledge before it even started.

Looking at a map, I think taking Kherson Oblast stabilizes the water supply for Crimea.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

Permission from their business leaders, which isn’t coming.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Both the PRC and Russia have built up alternative payment messaging systems so on the medium run I suspect Russian can survive losing access to SWIFT but it will be very painful on the short run.

Couldn't Germany also connect to these alternative payment systems if they really needed to? Germany does lots of business with Russia and China, so I could see voices in favor of them doing that.

[kwabbit]

I am baffled by the opposition of booting Russia from SWIFT from Germany and Italy. What the hell are we waiting for?

SWIFT is a payment system.  So if you cut Russia off from SWIFT you are really just saying Germany and Italy can no longer buy Russian energy.

That’d be the point. Russia needs Germany to buy its gas. Germany does need a Russian gas too, perhaps Biden can authorize more gas production in the United States? If NATO doesn’t go all in on sanctions Putin will face no consequences.