Afghan government collapse.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This guy was classy as hell

https://twitter.com/bsarwary/status/1426624176073367554?s=20

The portrait of Babur is a nice touch.

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1426637983135014917?s=20

[lfromnj]

Vietnam 2, electric boogaloo.

Not exactly; the North Vietnamese had tanks and aircraft.

Also "Not exactly," the South Vietnamese held out for about a year and a half after American withdrawal. Afghanistan will be 100% Taliban held by year end, and they never held 100% of Afghanistan in the 90s.

Well that remains to be seen, I can certainly see some groups in the country not submitting willingly.

Is this still "remains to be seen?" The areas of Afghanistan most hostile or dubious to the Taliban in the 90s are already under their control.

Its almost certainly done but this version of the Taliban is relatively more multi-ethnic and the divide seems more based on density ala the Communist version of Afghanistan.

[Alcibiades]

Is Ghani going to attempt to negotiate some sort of deal/surrender to spare Kabul, or will the government resist until the end? If they do so, it seems pretty likely that the fighting will be far fiercer than anything we have seen so far, as there is actually some will to try and defend the capital.

Regardless of what you think about the original intervention, it is clear that there is now a huge humanitarian crisis, which is only going to get worse if and when things turn nasty in Kabul, that the West is totally and shamefully unprepared for. We owe it to those Afghans who fear the Taliban and want to escape to give them a place of refuge. It’s absolutely the least we can do.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

If ASM had survived... everything would be different, and so different it's hard to even imagine clearly what might have happened. For one thing it would have been harder for the United States to have followed the traditional strategy (going right back to the Raj) of imposing a series of suitably pro-modernity Pashtun strongmen on the country and hoping that this time it really would bear state-building fruit. As for Abdullah... for all his faults, that rigged poll was clearly the point at which the credibility of the 'national' government collapsed amongst most minorities.

Do you think there was ever any realistic possibility, if things had been done differently, that Afghanistan could have been successfully stabilized, either as a confederation with a great deal of autonomy for different ethnic groups/tribes in their local areas, or alternatively broken up (similar to Yugoslavia) into multiple states for different ethnic groups (e.g. maybe a Pashtun state, a separate Hazara state, an Uzbek, state, maybe some more), as an alternative to maintaining the fiction that Afghanistan was a unified "country" that could be meaningfully ruled over by a central government sitting in Kabul? Some better alternative to that pro-modernity Pashtun strongman, who doesn't actually have support (or control) of the Pashtun areas, and who naturally has their popularity and the effectiveness of their rule limited in the non-Pashtun areas by virtue of the strongman being Pashtun?

[H. Ross Peron]

Vietnam 2, electric boogaloo.

Not exactly; the North Vietnamese had tanks and aircraft.

Also "Not exactly," the South Vietnamese held out for about a year and a half after American withdrawal. Afghanistan will be 100% Taliban held by year end, and they never held 100% of Afghanistan in the 90s.

Well that remains to be seen, I can certainly see some groups in the country not submitting willingly.

Is this still "remains to be seen?" The areas of Afghanistan most hostile or dubious to the Taliban in the 90s are already under their control.

Its almost certainly done but this version of the Taliban is relatively more multi-ethnic and the divide seems more based on density ala the Communist version of Afghanistan.

I see the global political realignment has not spared Afghanistan.

[Estrella]

This guy was classy as hell

https://twitter.com/bsarwary/status/1426624176073367554?s=20

The portrait of Babur is a nice touch.

Re: the first tweet - is it this bridge...



...or have we not reached that level of "second time as a farce" yet?

[lfromnj]

Lmao.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1426684275814981637

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Being reported that Jalalabad has fallen. It seems that what's left of the 'army' isn't even bothering to pretend to fight now and that local warlords and strongmen are cutting quick surrender deals with the Taliban. This, of course, is hardly unprecedented or unusual in Afghanistan. Surrender now to fight another day and, quite probably, to surrender again in the same circumstances to a new master.

[WMS]

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.

Reasonable chance that there is - at least for a time - a bizarre echo of Afghanistan's situation after the Second Anglo-Afghan War, with Pakistan taking the place of the Raj and setting Afghanistan's foreign policy for it.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Yeah, as long as Pakistan was providing aid and support to the Taliban the 2% chance of things working out was cut in half.

Once we evacuate everyone we should evacuate - as many Afghans as we can - and leave entirely, can we at least cut off all aid to those treacherous Pakistani snakes?

[Continential]

Statement by the President.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It is also being reported that Dostum is bribing - with serious money - 'national' 'army' helicopter pilots and others with access to kit and some technical ability to defect to his personal militia.

How the f is Dostum still alive and active as a player

He's one of the few people who can't surrender without a quick bullet to the head at best. The Taliban hate him after he lo led thousands of them in cargo containers to suffocate in the Afghani sun.

[Red Velvet]

Statement by the President.

That’s a great statement for Biden. Surprising how good he is being in comparison with Obama.

[2952-0-0]

My dad told me a lot about how his dad fought for the Nationalists against the Communists during the Chinese Civil War, and how the Nationalist army was vastly superior in numbers, and were supplied with weapons and food from the US. The Nationalists then proved to be so cartoonishly corrupt that the US gave up on them, and then they fell within less than two years. Entire divisions simply surrendered to the Communists without a shot fired. To me, it's watching the exact same thing at 10X speed.

[H. Ross Peron]

My dad told me a lot about how his dad fought for the Nationalists against the Communists during the Chinese Civil War, and how the Nationalist army was vastly superior in numbers, and were supplied with weapons and food from the US. The Nationalists then proved to be so cartoonishly corrupt that the US gave up on them, and then they fell within less than two years. Entire divisions simply surrendered to the Communists without a shot fired. To me, it's watching the exact same thing at 10X speed.

Except there's no Taiwan sadly.

[Red Velvet]

My dad told me a lot about how his dad fought for the Nationalists against the Communists during the Chinese Civil War, and how the Nationalist army was vastly superior in numbers, and were supplied with weapons and food from the US. The Nationalists then proved to be so cartoonishly corrupt that the US gave up on them, and then they fell within less than two years. Entire divisions simply surrendered to the Communists without a shot fired. To me, it's watching the exact same thing at 10X speed.

To me this either looks more like US Vietnam II OR the US version of the Afghan-Soviet conflict  (Which was already known as the Soviets version of “Vietnam” lol).

Funny thing is that during the Afghan-Soviet conflict, Soviets were facing similar challenges US did. They wanted to keep Socialist influence in Afghanistan and biggest enemies were the religious fundamentalists who were against it because they saw it as a religious war (Atheists and Christians locally were with Socialist government).

And then since it was Cold War, you had US, western powers and even China giving military supplies to the religious fundamentalists to fight against the Soviets and the Afghan government, because they didn’t want expansion of Soviet influence. Soviet Union could take control of most places but couldn’t destroy them, which made them leave Afghanistan in 1989. Some say this war accelerated the fall of the Soviet Union. The geography of Afghanistan makes it easier for the fundamentalists to hide between the big mountains.

The funny thing is that US occupied the USSR position in the last years with similar accomplishments and failures. Funny enough, after 9/11 they became against the religious fundamentalists they supported and armed against USSR during Cold War and this time decided to side with Afghan government since Cold War had already ended. Afghanistan is uncontrollable country victim of foreign countries who don’t care about it treating it as a path for their own interests and at the same time the nightmare of these same powerful countries.

After all, USSR fall happened just after they took their troops out of Afghanistan and US had to face terrorist attacks after financing religious fundamentalists in the region, also entering similar unsolvable conflict in Afghanistan just to lose, exactly like USSR.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.

Reasonable chance that there is - at least for a time - a bizarre echo of Afghanistan's situation after the Second Anglo-Afghan War, with Pakistan taking the place of the Raj and setting Afghanistan's foreign policy for it.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Yeah, as long as Pakistan was providing aid and support to the Taliban the 2% chance of things working out was cut in half.

Once we evacuate everyone we should evacuate - as many Afghans as we can - and leave entirely, can we at least cut off all aid to those treacherous Pakistani snakes?

Pakistan's position is more or less delicate management of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations (a good offense is the best defense) through any means it feels are necessary, even if that means getting one's hands messy and doing things that might look hard to justify to an outward observer.
Not that I expected anything besides misinformed views from most Americans on this issue.
Reality tends to be nuanced. Pakistan is in a tough neighborhood. I suggest you read up on the history of the Durand Line and consider the difficulties Pakistan's geography presents.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Strangely one way tickets from Kabul to Delhi are only $140. You'd think there'd be a premium right now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

My dad told me a lot about how his dad fought for the Nationalists against the Communists during the Chinese Civil War, and how the Nationalist army was vastly superior in numbers, and were supplied with weapons and food from the US. The Nationalists then proved to be so cartoonishly corrupt that the US gave up on them, and then they fell within less than two years. Entire divisions simply surrendered to the Communists without a shot fired. To me, it's watching the exact same thing at 10X speed.

Both before and after the Qing empire, China had a lot of warlords with paper armies that is similar to this situation. Although the ultimate corrupt Chinese warlord seems to have been in the 1700s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heshen

[2952-0-0]

Both before and after the Qing empire, China had a lot of warlords with paper armies that is similar to this situation. Although the ultimate corrupt Chinese warlord seems to have been in the 1700s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heshen

In fact, the PRC suffered this exact problem in the 1990s and 2000s. In tandem with the rest of the world, Beijing ordered massive military spending cuts in the early 90s, just as it was ordering economic liberalization. Result: military generals enriched themselves, and the PLA was simply unfit for war. Hypothetically, Bill Clinton could have ordered airstrikes and offered peace to each general individually, and the PRC would have disintegrated as a centralized state.

What did in the Nationalists during the Civil War was also ghost soldiers. A general would supposedly have 10,000 men under his command, but 5,000 of them have either deserted or been killed. He would simply continue to report he had 10,000 men, so he could pocket the pay of the other 5,000 men, while HQ would still issue commands for 10,000 men. In Afghanistan, the US had supposedly installed a biometric verification system to solve this problem in the Afghan army, but it clearly wasn't effective.

Here's a dark prediction: you're going to see a lot of middle-class Afghans whose lifestyles are too liberal for the Taliban, but who were too poor to leave the country, fall from buildings in the days ahead. That's what happened in Shanghai when the Communists came.

[All Along The Watchtower]

These thugs should be diplomatically isolated again, and include their Pakistani sponsors this time too.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

These thugs should be diplomatically isolated again, and include their Pakistani sponsors this time too.

Pakistan is now starting to regret backing the Taliban. A bit late for that now though.

[Silent Hunter]

At the end of the day, if the Taliban can keep the streets safe, the shops stocked and the lights on, many will tolerate the other stuff.

They did precisely none of that in their previous rule of the country. I don't know why people pretend that Taliban governance is unknowable, we know they don't get the trains to run on time. Their governance was farcical and one of the most incompetent in the world.

There's a reason that the us was able to initaly take over the country with about special forces, local allies and air support. They didn't exactly have a solid hold of the country.

Now they've learned from their mistakes and their long years of hiding and fighting has taught them some very sharp lessons. I'd doubt those lessons will carry into peacetime governance.

Afghanistan doesn't actually have any passenger trains to run on time.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

At the end of the day, if the Taliban can keep the streets safe, the shops stocked and the lights on, many will tolerate the other stuff.

They did precisely none of that in their previous rule of the country. I don't know why people pretend that Taliban governance is unknowable, we know they don't get the trains to run on time. Their governance was farcical and one of the most incompetent in the world.

There's a reason that the us was able to initaly take over the country with about special forces, local allies and air support. They didn't exactly have a solid hold of the country.

Now they've learned from their mistakes and their long years of hiding and fighting has taught them some very sharp lessons. I'd doubt those lessons will carry into peacetime governance.

Afghanistan doesn't actually have any passenger trains to run on time.

They have short sections of rail-road. Maybe china will be dumb enough to invest in building a railroad there.