Afghan government collapse.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

At the end of the day, if the Taliban can keep the streets safe, the shops stocked and the lights on, many will tolerate the other stuff.

They did precisely none of that in their previous rule of the country. I don't know why people pretend that Taliban governance is unknowable, we know they don't get the trains to run on time. Their governance was farcical and one of the most incompetent in the world.

There's a reason that the us was able to initaly take over the country with about special forces, local allies and air support. They didn't exactly have a solid hold of the country.

Now they've learned from their mistakes and their long years of hiding and fighting has taught them some very sharp lessons. I'd doubt those lessons will carry into peacetime governance.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

At the end of the day, if the Taliban can keep the streets safe, the shops stocked and the lights on, many will tolerate the other stuff.

They did precisely none of that in their previous rule of the country. I don't know why people pretend that Taliban governance is unknowable, we know they don't get the trains to run on time. Their governance was farcical and one of the most incompetent in the world.

There's a reason that the us was able to initaly take over the country with about special forces, local allies and air support. They didn't exactly have a solid hold of the country.

Now they've learned from their mistakes and their long years of hiding and fighting has taught them some very sharp lessons. I'd doubt those lessons will carry into peacetime governance.

The previous Taliban governance was impeded by constant civil war (they've taken almost all of the areas most likely to be hostile to them) and ethnic tensions that have been smoothed over by their opponents being backed by Western outsiders.

There has never been true peacetime governance in most Afghans' lives. If the Taliban can ensure that, they will seem competent in the eyes of many.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/PDShinkman/status/1425898202474102802
Why is China's government so despicable?

[Benjamin Frank]

At the end of the day, if the Taliban can keep the streets safe, the shops stocked and the lights on, many will tolerate the other stuff.

They did precisely none of that in their previous rule of the country. I don't know why people pretend that Taliban governance is unknowable, we know they don't get the trains to run on time. Their governance was farcical and one of the most incompetent in the world.

There's a reason that the us was able to initaly take over the country with about special forces, local allies and air support. They didn't exactly have a solid hold of the country.

Now they've learned from their mistakes and their long years of hiding and fighting has taught them some very sharp lessons. I'd doubt those lessons will carry into peacetime governance.

The previous Taliban governance was impeded by constant civil war (they've taken almost all of the areas most likely to be hostile to them) and ethnic tensions that have been smoothed over by their opponents being backed by Western outsiders.

There has never been true peacetime governance in most Afghans' lives. If the Taliban can ensure that, they will seem competent in the eyes of many.

If you want to argue that the United States should leave Afghanistan for any number of reasons, that's perfectly valid, but you don't need to justify your argument by trying to rationalize what's going to happen.  Afghanistan is going to be an absolute hell hole for most of its citizens, and I highly doubt a single person here actually believes anything otherwise.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

At the end of the day, if the Taliban can keep the streets safe, the shops stocked and the lights on, many will tolerate the other stuff.

They did precisely none of that in their previous rule of the country. I don't know why people pretend that Taliban governance is unknowable, we know they don't get the trains to run on time. Their governance was farcical and one of the most incompetent in the world.

There's a reason that the us was able to initaly take over the country with about special forces, local allies and air support. They didn't exactly have a solid hold of the country.

Now they've learned from their mistakes and their long years of hiding and fighting has taught them some very sharp lessons. I'd doubt those lessons will carry into peacetime governance.

The previous Taliban governance was impeded by constant civil war (they've taken almost all of the areas most likely to be hostile to them) and ethnic tensions that have been smoothed over by their opponents being backed by Western outsiders.

There has never been true peacetime governance in most Afghans' lives. If the Taliban can ensure that, they will seem competent in the eyes of many.

If you want to argue that the United States should leave Afghanistan for any number of reasons, that's perfectly valid, but you don't need to justify your argument by trying to rationalize what's going to happen.  Afghanistan is going to be an absolute hell hole for most of its citizens, and I highly doubt a single person here actually believes anything otherwise.

I agree that Taliban governance will be crap. I'm just disputing that it will definitely be crap enough to allow civil war to continue on the scale that it previously did.

They are not as weak as they were in the 1990s.

[Benjamin Frank]

At the end of the day, if the Taliban can keep the streets safe, the shops stocked and the lights on, many will tolerate the other stuff.

They did precisely none of that in their previous rule of the country. I don't know why people pretend that Taliban governance is unknowable, we know they don't get the trains to run on time. Their governance was farcical and one of the most incompetent in the world.

There's a reason that the us was able to initaly take over the country with about special forces, local allies and air support. They didn't exactly have a solid hold of the country.

Now they've learned from their mistakes and their long years of hiding and fighting has taught them some very sharp lessons. I'd doubt those lessons will carry into peacetime governance.

The previous Taliban governance was impeded by constant civil war (they've taken almost all of the areas most likely to be hostile to them) and ethnic tensions that have been smoothed over by their opponents being backed by Western outsiders.

There has never been true peacetime governance in most Afghans' lives. If the Taliban can ensure that, they will seem competent in the eyes of many.

If you want to argue that the United States should leave Afghanistan for any number of reasons, that's perfectly valid, but you don't need to justify your argument by trying to rationalize what's going to happen.  Afghanistan is going to be an absolute hell hole for most of its citizens, and I highly doubt a single person here actually believes anything otherwise.

I agree that Taliban governance will be crap. I'm just disputing that it will definitely be crap enough to allow civil war to continue on the scale that it previously did.

They are not as weak as they were in the 1990s.

They're as motivated by an extreme ideology as much as they ever were.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

We owe it to the Afghans who took a bet on the United States to resettle them here. Not just the translators. Soldiers and government officials and their friends and their family. We did it for the Vietnamese and Laotians and Cambodians. If we're going to leave, we should at least offer to let Afghans leave with us. It's the bare minimum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The previous Taliban governance was impeded by constant civil war (they've taken almost all of the areas most likely to be hostile to them) and ethnic tensions that have been smoothed over by their opponents being backed by Western outsiders.

The original Taliban had no interest in modern governance and things were as chaotic and utterly grim in the parts of the country that were not seriously contested until the NATO intervention as in the (always rapidly shrinking) areas that were. This version of the Taliban is a little different on that front, but there's little to indicate that they're likely to be competent, and there's no reason at all to assume that ethnic strife and civil war will cease the moment they seize Kabul. Leaving aside the pretty high chance that warlordism kicks off again, there's the issue that the Taliban is no longer dominated by a single charismatic personality and is now highly factionalised.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Makes you wonder how things would have been different if Abdullah Abdullah had won the "election" (or if Ahmed Shah Masood hadn't been offed before 9/11).

If ASM had survived... everything would be different, and so different it's hard to even imagine clearly what might have happened. For one thing it would have been harder for the United States to have followed the traditional strategy (going right back to the Raj) of imposing a series of suitably pro-modernity Pashtun strongmen on the country and hoping that this time it really would bear state-building fruit. As for Abdullah... for all his faults, that rigged poll was clearly the point at which the credibility of the 'national' government collapsed amongst most minorities.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Being reported (though I don't think confirmed?) that Mazer-e-Sharif has finally fallen and that the militias have legged it to the Uzbek border, possibly to regroup: M-e-S is not actually very defensible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is also being reported that Dostum is bribing - with serious money - 'national' 'army' helicopter pilots and others with access to kit and some technical ability to defect to his personal militia.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It is also being reported that Dostum is bribing - with serious money - 'national' 'army' helicopter pilots and others with access to kit and some technical ability to defect to his personal militia.

How the f is Dostum still alive and active as a player

[Blair]

Genuinely curious- I've seen a lot about how bad the Afghan National Army is and how much of this is actually down to the structure of the Afghan state.  What are the alternatives could have been that would have prevented or delayed this?

I've been relatively ignorant of politics in Afghanistan over the last 10 years.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

How many countries will recognize a Taliban-led Afghanistan?

[compucomp]

How many countries will recognize a Taliban-led Afghanistan?

Have you forgotten that Vietnam is now considered a quasi-ally by the USA and a possible partner in fighting China, and the war is not an issue whatsoever?

[WMS]

How many countries will recognize a Taliban-led Afghanistan?

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.

[The Mikado]

Vietnam 2, electric boogaloo.

Not exactly; the North Vietnamese had tanks and aircraft.

Also "Not exactly," the South Vietnamese held out for about a year and a half after American withdrawal. Afghanistan will be 100% Taliban held by year end, and they never held 100% of Afghanistan in the 90s.

Well that remains to be seen, I can certainly see some groups in the country not submitting willingly.

Is this still "remains to be seen?" The areas of Afghanistan most hostile or dubious to the Taliban in the 90s are already under their control.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Have you forgotten that Vietnam is now considered a quasi-ally by the USA and a possible partner in fighting China, and the war is not an issue whatsoever?

Irrelevant comparison. The North Vietnamese were never remotely in the same stratosphere as the Taliban are.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The neo-Taliban is more multicultural, by choice or by circumstance, than its original iteration which makes it unlikely resistance for their rule will take on the same explicitly ethnic resistance that characterised the Northern Alliance, but there are lots of other dangers that the Taliban will take on if they attempt to make a centralised state - it may turn out that this insurgency, although less parochial than the initial Taliban, is too riddled with contradictions, a group held together out of little but hostility to the Kabul regime.

[compucomp]

Have you forgotten that Vietnam is now considered a quasi-ally by the USA and a possible partner in fighting China, and the war is not an issue whatsoever?

Irrelevant comparison. The North Vietnamese were never remotely in the same stratosphere as the Taliban are.

I predict in 5 years or so, the USA will make a deal with the Taliban government to surreptitiously support ETIM and other Uighur terrorist groups to cause trouble in Xinjiang and disrupt Chinese investments in Afghanistan. This won't be done officially, of course, but through the CIA like in the 1980's.

Meanwhile we'll start hearing how these courageous so-called "freedom fighters" are "struggling for liberty and democracy" or whatever against China while being harbored by the same Taliban that the USA fought for 20 years, a conflict precipitated by the very same action they will be praising in the future.

[Frodo]

Have you forgotten that Vietnam is now considered a quasi-ally by the USA and a possible partner in fighting China, and the war is not an issue whatsoever?

Irrelevant comparison. The North Vietnamese were never remotely in the same stratosphere as the Taliban are.

I predict in 5 years or so, the USA will make a deal with the Taliban government to surreptitiously support ETIM and other Uighur terrorist groups to cause trouble in Xinjiang and disrupt Chinese investments in Afghanistan. This won't be done officially, of course, but through the CIA like in the 1980's.

Meanwhile we'll start hearing how these courageous so-called "freedom fighters" are "struggling for liberty and democracy" or whatever against China while being harbored by the same Taliban that the USA fought for 20 years, a conflict precipitated by the very same action they will be praising in the future.

Will Pakistan (especially the military and the ISI) be on board with it, though, especially considering it is effectively a Chinese client state now?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.

Reasonable chance that there is - at least for a time - a bizarre echo of Afghanistan's situation after the Second Anglo-Afghan War, with Pakistan taking the place of the Raj and setting Afghanistan's foreign policy for it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.

Reasonable chance that there is - at least for a time - a bizarre echo of Afghanistan's situation after the Second Anglo-Afghan War, with Pakistan taking the place of the Raj and setting Afghanistan's foreign policy for it.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this still "remains to be seen?" The areas of Afghanistan most hostile or dubious to the Taliban in the 90s are already under their control.

Though this has largely been a case of moving into a vacuum. Badakhshan was abandoned by 'government' forces with barely a shot fired, for instance. There doesn't seem much chance of the 'government' surviving, of people resisting on its behalf, but trouble down the road is hardly unrealistic. So it depends, to an extent, on what is meant by 'submit'.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

British government embarrasses itself, presumably because it's afraid a small group of would-be university students might claim refugee status.

https://twitter.com/NZafary/status/1426563127102033926