Afghan government collapse.

[urutzizu]

https://t24.com.tr/haber/taliban-dan-kacan-afganistan-vatandaslari-turkiye-ye-geliyor-her-gun-1000-kisi-giris-yapiyor,964942

The exodus has begun. Acc to Turkish media more than 1000 Afghans per day fleeing from the Taliban (teachers, bureaucrats, hazaras etc.) are now arriving in Turkey. Once again, US makes unilateral and domestic politically motivated decisions, their "allies" have to deal with the consequences. When will we get fed up?

A way to ease this very effectively would be for the Biden admin to scrap the Iran sanctions, but again that would take basic consultation and consideration of the interests of aligned countries. And that is something that, flowery rhetoric aside, in practical terms Biden is not much better than Trump on.

[Cassius]

Assuming the Afghan government does collapse completely, then it’s time for the US and others to make some sort of an accommodation with the Taliban.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Assuming the Afghan government does collapse completely, then it’s time for the US and others to make some sort of an accommodation with the Taliban.

Why? The US (and the UK and the rest of Europe/the West) has zero interests at stake in Afghanistan. They can happily ignore whatever happens with zero consequences, except maybe droning some terrorists if needed like Yemen and Syria.

[Cassius]

Assuming the Afghan government does collapse completely, then it’s time for the US and others to make some sort of an accommodation with the Taliban.

Why? The US (and the UK and the rest of Europe/the West) has zero interests at stake in Afghanistan. They can happily ignore whatever happens with zero consequences, except maybe droning some terrorists if needed like Yemen and Syria.

That’s what I mean by accommodation, whereas I suspect what will happen is that a Taliban controlled Afghanistan will end up being another Iran (ie pointlessly sanctioned and having an inordinate amount of attention paid to it).

[Silent Hunter]

Could the Taliban take Kabul, a city of over 4 million people, with the forces they have?

[CumbrianLefty]

Could the Taliban take Kabul, a city of over 4 million people, with the forces they have?

They could if hardly anybody puts up a fight (did anyone do so in 1996?)

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/billroggio/status/1415640609361121280

[Crumpets]

Dostum is an awful human being, but he's one of the few non-Taliban people to actually run an effective militia in Afghanistan. This seems pretty big.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1423951519481794561

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1423956326124826628

[CumbrianLefty]

Biden is going to get blamed for this by the usual suspects, isn't he.

[sting in the rafters]

Welp, they're China's money-pit now. Sorry Afghanis, we have half a million health-related bankruptcies and 15 million hungry kids.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Dostum has apparently come back to Afghanistan (he was being treated for health issues in Turkey). Obviously a criminal, but I can't blame his partisans for joining up with him.

Kunduz has fallen.

[Frodo]

Will there even be enough land and fighters for a reconstituted Northern Alliance by the time the Taliban reclaims control of the rest of the country?

Taliban takes key northern Afghan cities as battles rage on
Kunduz was the fourth provincial capital to largely succumb to Taliban fighters in less than a week.

[thumb21]

Taloqan also fell today, that's 5 capitals now..

[All Along The Watchtower]

What happened to the Taliban being part of a "political process?"

[CumbrianLefty]

What happened to the Taliban being part of a "political process?"

And if you ever actually believed that.....

[It’s so Joever]

Vietnam 2, electric boogaloo.

[PSOL]

This is a problem for Iran, Russia, and China to deal with. I entrust in them to not let the Al-Qaeda fighters have a presence there.

Things could go more smoothly if we sign up immediately for the JCPOA though.

[Silent Hunter]

Vietnam 2, electric boogaloo.

Not exactly; the North Vietnamese had tanks and aircraft.

[The Mikado]

Vietnam 2, electric boogaloo.

Not exactly; the North Vietnamese had tanks and aircraft.

Also "Not exactly," the South Vietnamese held out for about a year and a half after American withdrawal. Afghanistan will be 100% Taliban held by year end, and they never held 100% of Afghanistan in the 90s.

[CumbrianLefty]

Vietnam 2, electric boogaloo.

Not exactly; the North Vietnamese had tanks and aircraft.

Also "Not exactly," the South Vietnamese held out for about a year and a half after American withdrawal. Afghanistan will be 100% Taliban held by year end, and they never held 100% of Afghanistan in the 90s.

Well that remains to be seen, I can certainly see some groups in the country not submitting willingly.

And as far as South Vietnam was concerned, yes and no. The country literally collapsed in a couple of months once the North actually began their military offensive in earnest (they have said themselves that they were astonished how quick and easy it was) And equally strikingly, there wasn't even some token attempt by the AVRN to carry out guerrilla type resistance once Saigon fell.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The comparison misunderstands the situation anyway. This isn't a case of a single war stretching back twenty years, but several wars and all with different levels of involvement from outside actors, whether Western occupying troops or certain elements in the Pakistani state. It's actually very important to try to understand this from an Afghan perspective.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and they never held 100% of Afghanistan in the 90s.

They were closer to that figure than people remember: by 2001 they held everything but the Panjshir Valley and parts of Badakhshan.

[Sir Mohamed]

Vietnam 2, electric boogaloo.

It took more than 2 years from the withdrawal in early 1973 to the fall of Saigon on April 30, 1975. Don't think it'll last that long this time, tbh.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

The comparison misunderstands the situation anyway. This isn't a case of a single war stretching back twenty years, but several wars and all with different levels of involvement from outside actors, whether Western occupying troops or certain elements in the Pakistani state. It's actually very important to try to understand this from an Afghan perspective.

Doesn't most of that apply to Vietnam too?

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1425284564335964165