Vermont Megathread

[KaiserDave]

No reason a state as great as Vermont should have a right-wing Republican as their governor. Go Zuckerman!

You know literally nothing about VT politics if you believe Scott is 'right-wing Republican.' He's exactly as right wing as I am.

You're certainly correct about that, but my "right-wing republican" comment is like a year and a half old. But I'm not afraid to admit when I was wrong. Really, Scott is a Democrat in all but name and has actually done a very good job as governor. If I lived in Vermont, I'd have to vote against him on principle, but he's a good guy and the only good Republican in the country.

I'm thrilled to see you've come around. Mwahahahhaa.

I admit I was far too hackish back in 2019, some of it was tongue and cheek, some of it was very stupid. I have become more critical of Scott since then, but remain a big supporter.

Out of curiosity, what are you now critical of Scott on?

His veto of paid family leave most of all, and his excessively hawk nosed approach in budget/talks with the legislature in 2017-2019.

[Holmes]

Great news. I feel like I'd rather vote for Phil than a statist like Newsom.

Ew. At least wear a paper bag over your head when you say dumb sh**t like that.

[KaiserDave]

Speaking of budgets...

It's that time of year. Scott just delivered his State of the State.

Details here:
https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2022/01/05/scott-makes-vermonts-workforce-his-priority-for-2022

My view is that the legislature led by Balint (big FF!) and Krowinski generally get along with Scott a lot better than Scott got along with the legislature in 2017-2019. Their priorities largely overlap. Scott has an ambitious housing program, as does the legislature, and remarkably they're on the same page on education, and they both supporting the large amount of money still to be doled out from ARPA and BIF. But there are differences. Predominantly on taxes.

Scott supports a "“progressive tax relief package” that provides tax breaks to people who need them, such as retirees, middle income families and young workers." Balint says she's opposed to tax breaks while they still have a lot of other obligations.

The article is an interesting read for sure. There's plenty of stuff I'm not mentioning. But I like the rapport between Scott and Balint, but there will be arguments ahead for sure.

[Roll Roons]

https://vtdigger.org/2022/01/17/sen-joe-benning-a-moderate-republican-from-the-northeast-kingdom-launches-bid-for-lieutenant-governor/

State Sen. Joe Benning, a Scott-type Republican, is running for the open LG position. Possible pickup?

[smoltchanov]

https://vtdigger.org/2022/01/17/sen-joe-benning-a-moderate-republican-from-the-northeast-kingdom-launches-bid-for-lieutenant-governor/

State Sen. Joe Benning, a Scott-type Republican, is running for the open LG position. Possible pickup?

IMHO - Benning is slightly more conservative, then Scott (though - undoubtely sane). Westman is almost carbon copy... Though even he is slightly more conservative then Helen Riehle or Dianne Snelling (both of whom i almost admire).....

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2022/01/17/sen-joe-benning-a-moderate-republican-from-the-northeast-kingdom-launches-bid-for-lieutenant-governor/

State Sen. Joe Benning, a Scott-type Republican, is running for the open LG position. Possible pickup?

Benning is a moderate stalwart in the state legislature, and a key Scott ally. He's definitely to Scott's right, as Smolt says, but compared to the state party organization and some of the Trumpists in the state, he's absolutely in the center.

The race for Lt. Governor is wide open at the moment on the Democratic side, so I'll wait for that to change before doing any prognostication.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2022/01/18/gov-phil-scott-proposes-7-7b-state-budget-to-meet-historic-moment/

Budget talks escalating, and I'm pretty pleased with where it's at. There are differences between Balint+Krowinski and Scott, but I think they are largely in accord.

Scott’s tax relief package would increase the state’s earned income tax credit, a tax break for low-income workers, and tie Vermont for having the most generous state-level earned income tax credit in the nation.
Still, despite sitting across the aisle from Scott, the two Democratic lawmakers also emphasized that their vision for the future shared much in common with the Republican executive. And they expressed similar optimism about the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity afforded by federal aid. “It’s incredible to be able to sit and listen to a budget address that isn’t about cuts. It isn’t about taking money away from programs. It’s about investing, investing, investing and that is super exciting for the governor. It’s exciting for us,” Balint said at a press conference following Scott’s speech.

A Republican Governor generously expanding the EITC. Boy oh boy.

[KaiserDave]

Dick Mazza, moderate Democrat and friend of Scott, endorses Balint for Congress

[bayareabay]

Christine Hallquist should run again.

[Roll Roons]

Christine Hallquist should run again.

She can try, but it won't matter. Against Phil, she may as well be running in Wyoming.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Ethan Sonneborn pls

[smoltchanov]

Ethan Sonneborn pls

Against Scott? No chances in hell...

[KaiserDave]

I'm going to dissent from the consensus here. If Scott were running for re-election today, the demands for a stronger response to the pandemic would threaten his chances for re-election.

My expectation is that the issue will be less salient by the time of the general election. Perhaps the failure of the state legislature's push for a statewide mask mandate will go down as the highwater mark of this particular debate. Voters might be more interested in how the state has spent the federal stimulus windfall by next fall. (I am much less optimistic about the structural problems with the state's pension obligations, but few are paying much attention to that other than the pensioners.)

Candidate quality will almost certainly make Scott's reelection more likely, too, although there are enough ambitious Democrats around that not all of them have the luxury of waiting for their turn to run an easy race against a weak opponent. But all of this remains to be seen.

I actually agree, I've been very worried that pandemic restrictionists could make 2022 closer (and I followed the progress of the mask mandate bill closely), and I have predicted a victory more in line with 2016 than 2020. But I continue to be surprised and impressed by Scott's persistent high approval ratings. He can't lose if his approval rating is still 60% or more.

I have followed the pension issue a bit, but unfortunately I do not entirely understand what is going on.

[KaiserDave]

I have followed the pension issue a bit, but unfortunately I do not entirely understand what is going on.

No one does, but my expectation is that it will resolve gradually over the next few years through a series of painful cuts in services, compensation for public employees, and most of all by reducing promises made to current retirees. The amount of money involved is stratospheric compared to anything else the state touches. (Well, other than health care, but that's a similar quagmire.)

Do you think the all payer model has or will fail?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Ethan Sonneborn pls

Against Scott? No chances in hell...

Yeah but it would be funni anyway

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/zuckermanforvt/status/1490659321633460229

He's back

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/zuckermanforvt/status/1490659321633460229

He's back

I bet he's not winning the primary. As popular as Phil may be, losing statewide by 40 points is kinda yikes.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Can't cuck the zuck!

[Duke of York]

Has Scott announced if hes running for a fourth term?

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/zuckermanforvt/status/1490659321633460229
He's back

I bet he's not winning the primary. As popular as Phil may be, losing statewide by 40 points is kinda yikes.

Agreed. Maybe Scott was a lock in 2020, but I'm sure Democrats could do better than to have a 75 point defecit between presidential and gubernatorial performance. I think a better candidate could've kept the margin at 30 points or so, maybe even 25.

[LobsterDuck]

Which Dems might run against Scott?

[Roll Roons]

Which Dems might run against Scott?

Probably no one of note. Again, running against him would be suicide.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Which Dems might run against Scott?

Probably no one of note. Again, running against him would be suicide.

Democrats have a big enough field in the state they can find somebody. They won’t win, but it’s looks good to but someone out there.

[Sub Jero]

https://mobile.twitter.com/progparty/status/1507094482730242059?cxt=HHwWlsCy4c6c...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/progparty/status/1507094482730242059?cxt=HHwWlsCy4c6c...

This is how you kill a party