Vermont Megathread

[KaiserDave]

Phil Scott held a victory party with like 20 people in Berlin, VT. He didn’t know that the state party was holding an event, he didn't know that it was happening or where it was, or that is was right down the road from him, or that it existed. There is simply 0 communication between him and them. He won every town in the state and the far right creeps running for the state legislature got destroyed, and the Dems won a supermajority. Remarkable and hilarious stuff.




(VTDigger for photo creds)

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/davidgoodmanvt/status/1602726281661059072

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1719316033637662944

[KaiserDave]

I have been neglecting our beautiful Vermont thread.

Well, let us renew and let us refurbish.

Tuesday is Town Meeting Day, a wonderful tradition of New England direct democracy. What does this mean?

For the whole state, it means a vicious debate on education budgets. The structural faults of the education financing system has been laid bare, as municipalities face 20% (or more) property tax increases which would be the economic equivalent of an atomic bomb, we could see thousands of people on fixed incomes being forced out of their homes. For those who are unfamiliar with the Vermont education financing system, it is myriad and complicated and you should watch this video. In short, the money that pays for public school budgets flows from one pot, the roughly $2 billion state education fund. District school budgets, though, are drafted locally, and the amount a district spends per student helps determine local residential property tax rates. Local town meetings will include extremely contested debates on this subject. I will be in Corinth, so I will report back. There's a lot of anger brewing about this property tax issue. Governor Scott has essentially said "I told you so" to legislative Democrats, as he as advocated structural reforms for some time, legislative Democrats can't dispute that he is right, but wish he would be more forthright with specific proposals.

We also have a mayoral election in Burlington. Mayor Miro Weinberger, who has led the city for 12 years, has elected not to run for re-election (more on that later). There are two main candidates vying to succeed him. Joan Shannon (Democratic), City Councillor for the affluent South End, and Emma Mulvaney-Stanak (Progressive), a State Representative representing the renter-heavy Old North End. Shannon is a hard-nosed centrist, advocating restoring the pre-2020 Burlington Police Department, muscular anti-public drug use enforcement, and opposes radicalism on Gaza. Mulvaney-Stanak is from the right-wing of the Progressive Party (so, not a Maoist, but still strongly left of center), and in a demonstration of how poorly the defund the police vote has aged, also supports rebuilding the BPD, but with more qualifications. She has a long-record of labor advocacy and left of center positions. Despite this, the city's four largest unions have actually endorsed Shannon. Stanak has a reputation for being extremely poor at intrapersonal politics, and has few close allies outside her caucus in Montpelier (though has picked up a few endorsements from Democrats in the State House). Shannon has also gained the endorsement of many prominent Progressives. Burlington Progs have a serious generation gap going on. Progs used to run this town in the 1990s and early 2000s, and these days almost all those people are strong Democrats. This isn't surprising to me, the most senior Prog on the city council after Tuesday will have been elected in 2022. The new generation is far less pragmatic, and honestly just more interested in shouting about Gaza than doing anything on relevant local issues. Plus, the UVM campus YDSA has hijacked most of the party anyway, it is insane.

On the crucial housing issue, Shannon has an emphatically NIMBYistic record, consistently opposing up zoning and demonstrating an eye towards property appreciation for her heavily homeowner constituents. Nevertheless, she has campaigned on building more, as has Stanak. Shannon can however, boast of being against the 2020 police cuts, which has aged like a fine French wine now that everyone under the sun (save the most delusional dogmatics in the Progressive Party) supports rebuilding the BPD. For those who are unaware, we are the point in Burlington where if you call 911 for the Police, nobody is coming. There are half a dozen cops or less on patrol any given night. It is a catastrophe and a massive scandal. Given the salience of this issue, I expect Shannon to win the election, possibly decisively, but we'll see.

I voted for Stanak due to my concerns over the housing issue. What did it for me was comments here where Joan Shannon says Mayor Weinberger is too much of a "developer" and effectively abdicates any responsibility for new housing construction and admits to standing only for property appreciation. I could not justify a vote for Shannon, even though she has run away from her record, knowing how shamelessly NIMBYistic her record is. I also voted for my local Progressive City Council candidate (which is only my second time actually voting for the Progs for City Council, I usually vote Democratic because the Progs are insane or uninterested or incapable of actually serving). My local candidate is a self-described fiscal conservative (in the good government balanced budgets sense, not the anti-government crusader sense) who actually works for the Scott Administration. And he's a Prog! Well he will vote for upzoning and doesn't think basic police service is an imperialist racist chauvinist capitalist death machine, so there's my two checkboxes checked.

As for our departing Mayor, rumor has it he will run for Governor. I fully expect Governor Scott to smokes his sorry ass by 50-points like it's 1996 at Thunder Road (in the words of Jonny Wanzer). Scott drives Democratic apparatchiks absolutely hair-pulling batty, they do not understand why he is so popular, and that is why they fail, and will always fail.

If anybody has any questions, I will be happy to respond.

[Electric Circus]

Town Meeting Day is like the premise of a horror movie. Want to vote in local elections? You have to spend up to an entire day in a room listening to your neighbors arguing about every item on the agenda. Which really means everything, because they also get to argue about what goes up for a vote. If you have job or family commitments that you cannot defer, that's just too bad.

Here's a discussion from VPR:

And Bob, just a quick aside here, because you did mention voting by Australian ballot, which is something that some towns do, which is basically a secret ballot. But I'm curious, why is it called an Australian ballot?

That's a great question, Mitch. The Australian ballot is also called the secret ballot. It actually started in Australia in 1856. There were a couple of places there that decided that they wanted to have secrecy. And so it allowed voters to mark the ballot without anybody looking at it. And that process then spread to Europe and the United States.

This is like a living fossil for people who follow elections. I can't figure out how anyone reconciles their affection for this tradition with anything resembling a modern conception of voting rights.

[Electric Circus]

Live updates from VPR have begun.

The latest: Voters in Bethel will be forced to sit through a cheerleading routine before they cast their votes:

The Bethel Community Engagement and Town Meeting Committee has also, for the first time, brought on the Wildcat Cheerleaders of Bethel Youth Sports.

"Cheering is about supporting people who are doing great things," said Robynn Martin, the coach of the BYS Wildcat Cheerleaders, in a written statement. "We're so excited to be the world's first 'local democracy' cheerleaders and bring the Wildcat spirit to people who are voting and making Bethel better."

Members of the Bethel Party Planning Town Meeting Committee did not comment on whether they had considered moving to a secret ballot, something that political scientists and international organizations generally consider to be a critical feature of free and fair elections.

[Electric Circus]

Two towns, Richmond and Marshfield, have passed resolutions calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. No word yet from Newfane, where a similar resolution is also up for a vote.

[Electric Circus]

The town of Cambridge, which cast over two thousand votes in the last presidential election, has decided not to switch to a secret ballot for its local elections.

The votes of just 70 people were enough to make this decision for a town that has nearly 4,000 residents.

This is not what democracy looks like.

[Duke of York]

what are the chances Scott decides not to run again?

[KaiserDave]

what are the chances Scott decides not to run again?

If what I hear is true, close to 0.

[Duke of York]

what are the chances Scott decides not to run again?

If what I hear is true, close to 0.

If he runs and wins he will tie Howard Dean for longest serving Governor of the state.

[Electric Circus]

Burlington Mayor: Ward 5 results aren't in yet, but Mulvaney-Stanak (P) has a thousand vote margin over Shannon (D). I think that's enough to make her favored.

Progressives have also picked up a city council seat, knocking off one of the incumbent Democrats, but Democrats picked up a seat from a retiring independent who usually voted with the Progs, so it evens out.

[KaiserDave]

Burlington Mayor: Ward 5 results aren't in yet, but Mulvaney-Stanak (P) has a thousand vote margin over Shannon (D). I think that's enough to make her favored.

Progressives have also picked up a city council seat, knocking off one of the incumbent Democrats, but Democrats picked up a seat from a retiring independent who usually voted with the Progs, so it evens out.

Desperately waiting for Ward 5 results, shocked by Stanak's lead, definitely favored.

And the Progressive in question is a puppet of the local DSA's megalomaniac cult leader.

[KaiserDave]

It's been an hour since the last Ward reported. Serious issues in Ward 5?

Stanak leads by 1,026. Ward 5 is waterfront property-owners, it will come in for Shannon by a wide margin, but I think Shannon's only hope is to bring Stanak below 50% and win via RCV, I highly doubt there is enough from Ward 5 for her to take the lead.

[Duke of York]

It's been an hour since the last Ward reported. Serious issues in Ward 5?

Stanak leads by 1,026. Ward 5 is waterfront property-owners, it will come in for Shannon by a wide margin, but I think Shannon's only hope is to bring Stanak below 50% and win via RCV, I highly doubt there is enough from Ward 5 for her to take the lead.

Will we know outcome tonight?

[KaiserDave]

Ward 5 is in. It wasn't even close to saving Joan. Emma Mulvaney-Stanak will lead Burlington, winning by about 6%.

[KaiserDave]

Democrats retaining control in the city Council, Emma is Mayor. All I see is wins!

[Duke of York]

https://www.wcax.com/2024/03/06/montpelier-voters-reelect-mccullough-mayor/

Montpelier voters reelect Jack McCullough mayor

[Electric Circus]

Two towns, Richmond and Marshfield, have passed resolutions calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. No word yet from Newfane, where a similar resolution is also up for a vote.

Resolutions passed in at least three other towns: Newfane, Thetford, and Dummerston.

[KaiserDave]

Two towns, Richmond and Marshfield, have passed resolutions calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. No word yet from Newfane, where a similar resolution is also up for a vote.

Resolutions passed in at least three other towns: Newfane, Thetford, and Dummerston.

I heard it passed in Shelburne? Is this true?

[KaiserDave]

An overview...

Last night was a massive shock for the Burlington Democratic Party. You could see it from their reactions. Stunned. You could also see it from the Burlington Progressives, over the moon.

Think of it like this. Joan Shannon out-raised Emma Mulvaney-Stanak 2:1, she secured the endorsements of the largest public sector unions, and the news cycle for the entire campaign was focused on issues where she was supposed to be stronger (crime). Everybody expected her to win, possibly comfortably. It didn't help that Emma Mulvaney-Stanak's poor intrapersonal skills and lack of relationships is common knowledge to anybody in the know, and that the Burlington Progressive Party is increasingly reliant on inexperienced, incompetent voices with dubious commitment to the city of Burlington. Then, come Town Meeting Day, Shannon loses handily.

Why did this happen? Well firstly, I think Mulvaney-Stanak had a highly sound strategy

1. Run an independent campaign separate from the Progressive City Council slate

There was no joint campaign between Mulvaney-Stanak and down-ballot Progressives. She ran on her own. This makes sense! None of the Progressive City Council candidates this cycle were incumbents, more than one were more extreme than her on the issues, and the "Progressive City Councillor" brand is pretty poor. During the campaign, Stance's commitment to non-cooperation extremely bothered certain left-wing organizers in the city, but it worked. Stanak ran around 20-points ahead of down ballot Progressives basically everywhere. Democrats retained control of the City Council, if their numbers in the City Council were replicated on the Mayoral level, Shannon would have won easily.

2. Strategically defusing the crime issue by avoiding radicalism

First of all, Stanak was lucky. She was not on the City Council in Summer 2020. If she was, she almost certainly would have voted for the police cuts that have aged so poorly (Democrats did at the time!). But she didn't, so avoids the baggage and was able to defuse this issue by embracing re-funding the BPD without coming off as an opportunist. Stanak's platform calls for a police head count around 90, which would be a massive increase from the present number, which I do not know for sure but it might be around 30 or something, it is bad. Simultaneously, Stanak peppered in left-wing language around "community safety" and "social workers" and so on. In the past, Progressive office holders have openly talked about abolition and so on, those days are over (phew!).

What did Joan Shannon do wrong? Well I think she misread the public mood somewhat. I think Burlington Democrats have a bit of thinking to do right now. Voters have proven they will support quality Democrats over the worst of the Progressives, especially last year. But at the same time, Burlington's renter population is only going to grow. Burlington Democrats cannot just be the obvious homeowner only party. The Progressives will always be able to get some hippie homeowners who are ideologically left-wing, but Joan Shannon had nothing for renters. When asked about housing she would often talk about make homeownership easier, which is a noble goal, but let's be honest the Mayor of Burlington can't do very much about that, and it's not very pertinent for financially struggling renters. Joan Shannon was pure homeowner politics, and there isn't a majority for that.

Mayor Mulvaney-Stanak must rebuild the public services of this city (including and especially the BPD) and make a dent in the affordability issue. I hope she can do it, but if she doesn't I'm sure there will be many a capable Democrat ready to jump in to replace her come 2027.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I just want to thank @KaiserDave for your incredible analysis. I love reading it

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I just want to thank @KaiserDave for your incredible analysis. I love reading it

Seconded.

[smoltchanov]

Third thanks!

[Steve from Lambeth]

Now as ever: where would we be without Dave?