Vermont Megathread

[KaiserDave]

https://www.mynbc5.com/article/gov-phil-scott-announces-reelection-bid/32696532

Phil Scott has announced his campaign for re-election, but he is choosing to focus on his gubernatorial duties entirely until the state of emergency is over.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mynbc5.com/amp/article/gov-phil-scott-announces-reelection-bid/32696532

Phil Scott has announced his campaign for re-election, but he is choosing to focus on his gubernatorial duties entirely until the state of emergency is over.

I have just a few words

MY KING IS ALIVE

PHIL PHIL PHIL! He'll likely win by double digits!

Finally a man of culture!

[KaiserDave]

Any chance of him getting primaried?

He has two primary challengers, but he's has no name as you can get.

A pastor and a perenial candidate

In 2016 and 2018 he had stronger GOP opponents

[KaiserDave]

Endorse, and I expect this to be the only Republican I endorse this year*

*Except if Valerie Plame wins the nomination in NM-03

I think Phil's fantastic COVID response has given legitimate progressives and liberals a good reason to support him, even if they disagree with him on other policies.

[KaiserDave]

Endorse, and I expect this to be the only Republican I endorse this year*

*Except if Valerie Plame wins the nomination in NM-03

I think Phil's fantastic COVID response has given legitimate progressives and liberals a good reason to support him, even if they disagree with him on other policies.

Yep. Even if he isn't able campaign, he's done a great job at making sure Vermont has escaped the worst of it, and can always point to that. People around the state, even hardcore Bernie fans, know what an awesome governor he's been.

Exactly.

And it's not like anybody else is holding rallies either.

I think his decision to not campaign is perfectly sensible, and as long as he wins the primary he should be fine for reelection.

[KaiserDave]

No reason a state as great as Vermont should have a right-wing Republican as their governor. Go Zuckerman!

Lmao

Imagine thinking that Phil Scott is right wing. Vermont's greatness is exactly deserving of the corresponding greatness of Phil Scott.

I look forward to the 15 point Scott win.

[KaiserDave]

No reason a state as great as Vermont should have a right-wing Republican as their governor. Go Zuckerman!

Ah yes, Anti-vaxxer David Zuckerman

Running against pro science Phil Scott who has had the best COVID-19 response in the nation?


Easy choice

[KaiserDave]

Also, I would actually like to discuss this

I'm not sarcastic when I say, if you think Phil Scott is right wing (or a right wing Republican), please tell me how.

[KaiserDave]

Also, I would actually like to discuss this

I'm not sarcastic when I say, if you think Phil Scott is right wing (or a right wing Republican), please tell me how.

He vetoed a minimum wage increase, paid family leave, and legal marijuana.

1. The minimum wage goes up every year in Vermont, he vetoed a measure to increase that rate, and it makes sense. The wage is high, but he's tempering it to adjust for the cost and growth rate. It's sound economics. He supports higher wages, and wages have gone up.

2. He has an alternative plan for family leave, and you can debate the merits of it, but it's hardly right wing.

3. He vetoed one bill, and signed another one that he and the legislature agreed on. It's compromise and progress.


To suggest that he's right wing, much less a right wing Republican is patently false

[KaiserDave]

Honestly, I wish Scott were right-wing. At least then the Overton window wouldn't be so f[inks]ed up that people like Dan Bishop can make their way to the White House, while people like AOC are left in the dirt.

I actually completely agree with you

I wish Phil Scott was the right wing of this country

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/05/28/milne-joins-race-for-lieutenant-governor/

Scott Milne (GOP nominee for governor in 2014 and Senate in 2016) is running for the open Lieutenant Governor's seat. He did get a lot closer in the 2014 race than anyone expected.

Oooooooo!!!!!

Now this is news! This is gonna be interesting. Thank you for telling us.

I think I support Timothy Ashe still, but Phil's coattails could help Milne, although in the past Phil hasn't had much in the way of coattails.

[KaiserDave]

Also, I would actually like to discuss this

I'm not sarcastic when I say, if you think Phil Scott is right wing (or a right wing Republican), please tell me how.

He vetoed a minimum wage increase, paid family leave, and legal marijuana.

1. The minimum wage goes up every year in Vermont, he vetoed a measure to increase that rate, and it makes sense. The wage is high, but he's tempering it to adjust for the cost and growth rate. It's sound economics. He supports higher wages, and wages have gone up.

2. He has an alternative plan for family leave, and you can debate the merits of it, but it's hardly right wing.

3. He vetoed one bill, and signed another one that he and the legislature agreed on. It's compromise and progress.


To suggest that he's right wing, much less a right wing Republican is patently false

[KaiserDave]

Let's hope the anti-vaxxer loses.

Let's hope the climate denier (as recently as 2016) also loses: https://www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/a-climate-change-phil-scott-evolves-on-global-warming/Content?oid=3616844

-Believes in Climate Change Science
-Kept Vermont in Paris Climate Accord


Climate change denier!

[KaiserDave]

Also, I would actually like to discuss this

I'm not sarcastic when I say, if you think Phil Scott is right wing (or a right wing Republican), please tell me how.

He vetoed a minimum wage increase, paid family leave, and legal marijuana.

1. The minimum wage goes up every year in Vermont, he vetoed a measure to increase that rate, and it makes sense. The wage is high, but he's tempering it to adjust for the cost and growth rate. It's sound economics. He supports higher wages, and wages have gone up.

2. He has an alternative plan for family leave, and you can debate the merits of it, but it's hardly right wing.

3. He vetoed one bill, and signed another one that he and the legislature agreed on. It's compromise and progress.


To suggest that he's right wing, much less a right wing Republican is patently false

This is really all irrelevant. Whether or not you think Scott is a good governor, a Democrat would have been a better one. There is no reason to ever vote for a Republican, unless the Democrat is George Wallace or something.

Facts are hardly irrelevant. Phil Scott is a good governor who has competently led the state through its greatest crisis since the Great Depression.

I'm not going to blindly vote blue, and that kind of political tribalism is not a good idea. And I'm not a Moderate Hero (TM) Democrat, I'm a liberal Social Democrat but I can see what's up and what's not.

[KaiserDave]

Let's hope the anti-vaxxer loses.

Let's hope the climate denier (as recently as 2016) also loses: https://www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/a-climate-change-phil-scott-evolves-on-global-warming/Content?oid=3616844

-Believes in Climate Change Science
-Kept Vermont in Paris Climate Accord


Climate change denier!

Scott is a moderate Republican, sensible and honest leader. Phil is socially liberal, a climate activist, fiscally moderate and an amazing governor. He will win by 10 points or more.

GO PHIL!

"climate activist"

Where the hell are you getting this from?

He kept Vermont in the Paris Accord and I believe he supports Obama's clean power plan.


But sure.....doing nothing on climate.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/05/28/milne-joins-race-for-lieutenant-governor/

Scott Milne (GOP nominee for governor in 2014 and Senate in 2016) is running for the open Lieutenant Governor's seat. He did get a lot closer in the 2014 race than anyone expected.

Oooooooo!!!!!

Now this is news! This is gonna be interesting. Thank you for telling us.

I think I support Timothy Ashe still, but Phil's coattails could help Milne, although in the past Phil hasn't had much in the way of coattails.

Milne came close because he was running against a terrible opponent, so if he has a terrible opponent again this time, he could come close again, or win.

I think Ashe is more likely that not to beat him, but anything can happen.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2020/05/28/milne-joins-race-for-lieutenant-governor/

Scott Milne (GOP nominee for governor in 2014 and Senate in 2016) is running for the open Lieutenant Governor's seat. He did get a lot closer in the 2014 race than anyone expected.

Oooooooo!!!!!

Now this is news! This is gonna be interesting. Thank you for telling us.

I think I support Timothy Ashe still, but Phil's coattails could help Milne, although in the past Phil hasn't had much in the way of coattails.

Milne came close because he was running against a terrible opponent, so if he has a terrible opponent again this time, he could come close again, or win.

I think Ashe is more likely that not to beat him, but anything can happen.

Milne isn't a bad candidate, but I think Ashe is fairly strong. Ashe doesn't really seem to have many weaknesses, and I can't see Scott having much by way of coattails in a national election year to help out Milne (who, I would say, is seen as more partisan and conservative than Scott, even if it's mostly just perception).

I agree entirely.

[KaiserDave]

Some meme fun

Not intended to target anyone in this thread, just for an absurd laugh

Being honest I'm enjoying this discussion and I thank everyone for participating

And full disclosure, I don't hate Zuckerman. His rural Vermont progressivism speaks to me, but we disagree on some and I believe Phil is a better candidate for Governor.

[KaiserDave]

The reason why Sununu and Scott are winning, they represent Barry Goldwater moderation and represent the Reagan, Bush and McCain wing of the R party that triangulated.

Trump wasn't a politician before he became Prez and unlike Gov Bush W and Ronald Reagan whom worked with Dems in the state legislators, they knew the art of compromise: campaign finance reform,  minimum wage etc. The only thing Trump did was pass a tax cut and tried to repeal Obamacare.

The cap on SSA should of been raised in 2010, from 150 K and 225k; consequently, we wouldnt be in such a deficit. That was part of the Grand Bargin, but like Trump, Boehner was a polarizing force, that's why he too was removed from office, like Trump will be

Thank you, King

[KaiserDave]

The reason why Sununu and Scott are winning, they represent Barry Goldwater moderation and represent the Reagan, Bush and McCain wing of the R party that triangulated.

Every time I see this take, I die a little inside. Chris Sununu is not a moderate, he has never been a moderate, and he never will be a moderate.

In fact, even if he was, he couldn't govern like a moderate. Unlike Massachusetts or Vermont, the NHGOP has a strong conservative wing that needs to be appeased. There was such a drastic split between Gatsas, Forrester, and Sununu that Frank Edelblut (the candidate of the conservative wing) almost won in a massive upset. Since then, Sununu has extended an olive branch towards the Trump wing of the party, rather than work with the Democrats to find common ground.

The man's political appointees have largely been political cronies. He nominated Edelblut to be his Secretary of Education, despite him having zero professional qualifications whatsoever. In fact, the only thing that could be argued was that he helped homeschooled his kids, which leads me to believe he's backing a more conservative education policy focusing on alternative education. His Chief Justice nominee got rejected because he nominated his own Attorney General. The man, to put it plainly, is the swamp.

Aside from his flip-flops (including Planned Parenthood, which he only supported to get elected in the first place), he's been horrible on voting rights. It's honestly a ****ing joke that this man made my state ground zero for youth voter suppression and people call him a moderate.

Yep
Aaaaagreed

[KaiserDave]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

[KaiserDave]

As to Scott Milne, one thing that not a lot of people outside Upper New England understand about the 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial races is that Shumlin was personally disliked in addition to his political liabilities. He was a womanizer who was involved in shady property disputes with his neighbors. He barely even got nominated in the first place in 2010 with less than 25% in a five-way primary.

This is true, and his 2014 loss with a national red wave may speak more to Milne's weaknessnesses than his strength

[KaiserDave]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

[KaiserDave]

He happens to be successful in New Hampshire because the state is more conservative than VT and MA. There's a market for a Reagan/Bush-era conservative here, although I'd use that term very loosely with Sununu. Unlike Ayotte, Sununu is utterly devoid of principles and believes in whatever is most politically convenient at any given time.

Even then, he's not offensive enough to trigger the #NeverTrumpers in the state or the wine moms.

Tell me more about Ayotte

Of course, I'm talking pre-2016. Back then, she was a proud Republican footsoldier and was seen as part of the next generation of neoconservative leadership. By and large, she didn't offend the wine moms, and was actually fairly popular.

That being said, if Ayotte won she'd, at best, take the current "#NeverTrump" position of being Very Concerned about Trump's political moves while rubber-stamping them anyway. After all, they like the idea of tax cuts, Trumpcare, Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court, and Betsy DeVos as Secretary of Education. They just don't like Trump's violation of The Norms. At worst, she'd follow Lindsey Graham into the depths of hell and abandon her mentor's great memory.

Thankfully she lost, I cannot bear the thought of more Gardners, Collins, and Grahams.

The real kicker is that she lost by only 1,017 votes, while right-wing and very pro-Trump indpendent Aaron Day won 17,742 votes. Day basically by the end was running an "Ayotte isn't pro-Trump enough" campaign that siphoned off the hard line Trump base in NH. He actually had digital ads that showed a picture of Ayotte one of Hillary Clinton with the line "I'm with Her". This came after she said she wouldn't vote for Trump but would write in Pence.

Honestly, I remember Ayotte signs being taken down by some people with Trump signs, and some local conservative talk show hosts actually sort of celebrated her loss, even though most of the Trump campaign in the state still was trying to appear friendly with Ayotte. It was a bit odd, all together. Still, on the day after the election I still remember those radio hosts mocking Ayotte by singing along to "Build Me Up, Buttercup"

So you voted for Pence
Because you sat on the fence
Now that you've lost
we're giving you the toss

It didn't sound that great, and I don't remember it exactly, but you get the point. She was really between a rock and a hard place in 2016.

Wow

Is she ever a candidate for a comeback?

[KaiserDave]

I love the discussion!


But as for Vermont

In the GE for Governor, I'd say Zuckerman is stronger than Holcombe. At least that's what the polls say.