Vermont Megathread

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1367872511099236355
If it wasn't already abundantly clear Scott has no plans to challenge Leahy.

Challenge him? No. Run as the successor to his political brand? Possibly.

Really reminded of this election strategy from 2018:

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, has spent months selling herself as the heir to McCain’s distinctive legislative style — a bipartisan-focused “independent voice” who, like McCain, would “put country over party,” she said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/31/arizona-senate-mccain-successor-mcsally-sinema-805494

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1367872511099236355
If it wasn't already abundantly clear Scott has no plans to challenge Leahy.

Challenge him? No. Run as the successor to his political brand? Possibly.

Really reminded of this election strategy from 2018:

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, has spent months selling herself as the heir to McCain’s distinctive legislative style — a bipartisan-focused “independent voice” who, like McCain, would “put country over party,” she said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/31/arizona-senate-mccain-successor-mcsally-sinema-805494

Given Leahy is one of the most progressive Senators, bring on the Phil!

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1367872511099236355
If it wasn't already abundantly clear Scott has no plans to challenge Leahy.

Challenge him? No. Run as the successor to his political brand? Possibly.

Really reminded of this election strategy from 2018:

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, has spent months selling herself as the heir to McCain’s distinctive legislative style — a bipartisan-focused “independent voice” who, like McCain, would “put country over party,” she said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/31/arizona-senate-mccain-successor-mcsally-sinema-805494

Given Leahy is one of the most progressive Senators, bring on the Phil!

I'd actually be really interested in what a Senator Scott would look like. If he focused on bipartisan achievements, and depolarisation, he could actually be an important player.

He'd still almost certainly be a vote to reinstate McConnell as Majority Leader though, so it's kind of a double-edged sword.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1367872511099236355
If it wasn't already abundantly clear Scott has no plans to challenge Leahy.

Challenge him? No. Run as the successor to his political brand? Possibly.

Really reminded of this election strategy from 2018:

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, has spent months selling herself as the heir to McCain’s distinctive legislative style — a bipartisan-focused “independent voice” who, like McCain, would “put country over party,” she said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/31/arizona-senate-mccain-successor-mcsally-sinema-805494

Given Leahy is one of the most progressive Senators, bring on the Phil!

I'd actually be really interested in what a Senator Scott would look like. If he focused on bipartisan achievements, and depolarisation, he could actually be an important player.

He'd still almost certainly be a vote to reinstate McConnell as Majority Leader though, so it's kind of a double-edged sword.

Hence why I'd only support him if he pulled a Jeffords. And that's probably the only way he'd actually win.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1367872511099236355
If it wasn't already abundantly clear Scott has no plans to challenge Leahy.

Challenge him? No. Run as the successor to his political brand? Possibly.

Really reminded of this election strategy from 2018:

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, has spent months selling herself as the heir to McCain’s distinctive legislative style — a bipartisan-focused “independent voice” who, like McCain, would “put country over party,” she said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/31/arizona-senate-mccain-successor-mcsally-sinema-805494

Given Leahy is one of the most progressive Senators, bring on the Phil!

I'd actually be really interested in what a Senator Scott would look like. If he focused on bipartisan achievements, and depolarisation, he could actually be an important player.

He'd still almost certainly be a vote to reinstate McConnell as Majority Leader though, so it's kind of a double-edged sword.

Hence why I'd only support him if he pulled a Jeffords. And that's probably the only way he'd actually win.

Fair - that's probably the best case scenario.

Would certainly be fascinating if Leahy continues to be the only Democrat ever to represent VT in the Senate. Not to mention the irony of VT having a Senator who votes more conservatively than members representing Montana and Georgia.

[Not Me, Us]

If Scott wants to run for Senate, he should do so as an independent. I would support him if he did.

[KaiserDave]

I think independent Phil Scott caucusing with the Democrats would be a big positive influence on the U.S. Senate. Although I highly doubt he runs, and I'd be open to certain Vermont Democrats in the U.S. Senate (NOT Molly Gray).


I'm still mad she beat Tim Ashe. Yuck.

[😥]

I think independent Phil Scott caucusing with the Democrats would be a big positive influence on the U.S. Senate. Although I highly doubt he runs, and I'd be open to certain Vermont Democrats in the U.S. Senate (NOT Molly Gray).


I'm still mad she beat Tim Ashe. Yuck.

What's wrong with Vermont Lieutenant Governor?

[KaiserDave]

I think independent Phil Scott caucusing with the Democrats would be a big positive influence on the U.S. Senate. Although I highly doubt he runs, and I'd be open to certain Vermont Democrats in the U.S. Senate (NOT Molly Gray).


I'm still mad she beat Tim Ashe. Yuck.

What's wrong with Vermont Lieutenant Governor?

Still mad she beat Agrarian Progressive Tim Ashe for the Lt. Gov primary who was an accomplished legislator whereas she had spent a lot of time overseas, didn't vote in many Vermont elections, and won seemingly just with the support of the powerful Kunin family.

I'd like to see T.J. Donovan or an Ashe comeback before seeing her getting elevated to the U.S. Senate so soon.

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2021/03/16/life-could-be-back-to-normal-by-the-fourth-of-july-gov-scott-says/


Life could return to normal by the Fourth of July, Gov. Scott says

Reminds me of a VTDigger article from a few months ago. "The Eternal Sunshine of Phil Scott"

[KaiserDave]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/24/trump-gop-governors-baker-hogan-scott-477718

Very lazy analysis from Politico. Grouping Scott, Hogan, and Baker all together as "blue state Republicans becoming unpopular with Trump gone." While it's absolutely true that Baker and Hogan have become less popular as of late, anybody who has followed the numbers can tell you Scott has seen little to no erosion in his numbers.

The article goes on and on about all three have seen their numbers fall, and only citing one number about Scott that I am having trouble verifying about his COVID approval going from 78% to 70% from October to February. If that is true, it's probably Republicans, given the infighting in the VTGOP and the right wing complaining over Scott's Thanksgiving questionnaire.

Politico makes a common mistake though, conflating these three Northeastern Republican governors.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Baker deserves to lose, he has been in office too long, it's time for Downing, whom is a great candidate

[KaiserDave]

Phil Scott Update

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1377683282230452236?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

Gov. Scott supporting? Biden's infrastructure plan, previously supported the stimulus


https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1377282763951374338?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

Birthday wishes to Senator Leahy

[KaiserDave]

https://www.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2021/04/05/scott-defends-decision-to-open-vaccinations-to-all-bipoc-vermonters

Phil not backing down on the vaccine issue

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2021/04/06/scott-rolls-out-timeline-for-full-reopening/

Scott unveils plan for nigh-full reopening by July 4th

[Not Me, Us]

https://vtdigger.org/2021/04/06/scott-rolls-out-timeline-for-full-reopening/

Scott unveils plan for nigh-full reopening by July 4th

Honestly, July 4th seems a bit late. I'm not familiar with how well Vermont's vaccination effort is going, but nationally I think restrictions will probably be able to lifted by June 1st at the current rate. By then, everybody 16+ who wants to be vaccinated should be able to do so.

[Figueira]

Very lazy analysis from Politico.

Why did you say the same thing twice?

[KaiserDave]

Vermont is now leading the nation in vaccination

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1377996597817147392

Finally got my hands on 2020 VT Gov and Lt Gov results on a map. Interesting stuff.

Lamoille as usual is a good indicator for the state as a whole. And wow...Scott really dominated. And what is really fascinating is that he did better in some counties in the northwest than he did in Essex (the most R county in the state). Were there Trump-Zuckerman voters?

Paging Ave to see if he has the answers.

[Crane]

Vermont is now leading the nation in vaccination

It's very white and very educated. My ZIP code is neither and is one of the lowest in NYC for vaccinations (less than 25%.) Compare that to nearby Park Slope which has nearly 60%.

[KaiserDave]

Lamoille as usual is a good indicator for the state as a whole. And wow...Scott really dominated. And what is really fascinating is that he did better in some counties in the northwest than he did in Essex (the most R county in the state). Were there Trump-Zuckerman voters?

Paging Ave to see if he has the answers.

Trump-Zuckerman voters? Maybe a few people who really hate vaccines and love any candidate with a trust fund.

That's not what's going on here. It's just that the marginal voter in an election that has a Republican winning with 70% will be different from the marginal voter in a competitive election or a landslide in the opposite direction. A candidate can only win such a lopsided victory in a state that is typically reliable for the other party by winning voters who are extremely loyal to the opposite side.

This map might make more sense if you ignore Zuckerman's nominal party affiliation and just interpret this contest as a Progressive running against a Republican in a race with no Democratic candidate. The party line was that worthless to him.

Scott's statewide overperformance was magnified in a couple of places. The first were larger towns without many students: e.g. Barre is his home turf, but IIRC the trend holds in Newport, St. Johnsbury, St. Albans, and Rutland. The second were Burlington suburbs and commuter towns.

The only places where Zuckerman's vote held up at all were places with lots of students or older hippies. The typical liberal retiree voted for Scott, the typical white-collar professional voted for Scott, and the typical public employee voted for Scott (especially outside of Montpelier).

Yeah this makes sense. I noted a few months back that it was if Zuckerman was a fringe third party candidate running against Scott with no Democrat, and I suppose that's what happened!

[KaiserDave]

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/05/phil-scott-vermont-republican/618944/

Phil Scott's FIRST national interview, a must read. Main takeaways are that he isn't interested in becoming an independent, though he admits it would be "easier" but he isn't interested in running for Senate tiers and is "terribly happy right here in Vermont.” He notes that while he is a "little" concerned about Biden's spending, he supports the coming infrastructure package, and to my surprise, he says if Leahy is running for re-election, he will be voting for him.


On becoming an independent?

"I asked Scott why he hadn’t become an independent. “That would probably be the easier path, to be quite honest with you,” he said. “But if you look at the longevity of the Republican Party, there’s a lot to be proud of, from my perspective.” He listed Baker, Hogan, Representative Liz Cheney, and Senator Mitt Romney as leaders that give the party hope, and suggested that to abandon the GOP over Trump would be akin to surrendering the party to him. “We’ll see what happens in the future,” Scott said. “But I have no intention of leaving the Republican Party.”"

I'm obviously disappointed, but there's a lot I like in this interview, including legions of Vermont Dems heaping praise on him!

[Not Me, Us]

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/05/phil-scott-vermont-republican/618944/

Phil Scott's FIRST national interview, a must read. Main takeaways are that he isn't interested in becoming an independent, though he admits it would be "easier" but he isn't interested in running for Senate tiers and is "terribly happy right here in Vermont.” He notes that while he is a "little" concerned about Biden's spending, he supports the coming infrastructure package, and to my surprise, he says if Leahy is running for re-election, he will be voting for him.


On becoming an independent?

"I asked Scott why he hadn’t become an independent. “That would probably be the easier path, to be quite honest with you,” he said. “But if you look at the longevity of the Republican Party, there’s a lot to be proud of, from my perspective.” He listed Baker, Hogan, Representative Liz Cheney, and Senator Mitt Romney as leaders that give the party hope, and suggested that to abandon the GOP over Trump would be akin to surrendering the party to him. “We’ll see what happens in the future,” Scott said. “But I have no intention of leaving the Republican Party.”"

I'm obviously disappointed, but there's a lot I like in this interview, including legions of Vermont Dems heaping praise on him!

Good news that he isn't running for Senate. He'd probably lose anyway, but it's nice to not have to worry about that seat.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/05/phil-scott-vermont-republican/618944/

Phil Scott's FIRST national interview, a must read. Main takeaways are that he isn't interested in becoming an independent, though he admits it would be "easier" but he isn't interested in running for Senate tiers and is "terribly happy right here in Vermont.” He notes that while he is a "little" concerned about Biden's spending, he supports the coming infrastructure package, and to my surprise, he says if Leahy is running for re-election, he will be voting for him.


On becoming an independent?

"I asked Scott why he hadn’t become an independent. “That would probably be the easier path, to be quite honest with you,” he said. “But if you look at the longevity of the Republican Party, there’s a lot to be proud of, from my perspective.” He listed Baker, Hogan, Representative Liz Cheney, and Senator Mitt Romney as leaders that give the party hope, and suggested that to abandon the GOP over Trump would be akin to surrendering the party to him. “We’ll see what happens in the future,” Scott said. “But I have no intention of leaving the Republican Party.”"

I'm obviously disappointed, but there's a lot I like in this interview, including legions of Vermont Dems heaping praise on him!

Good news that he isn't running for Senate. He'd probably lose anyway, but it's nice to not have to worry about that seat.

If he's not running Indy I don't want to him to run. So agreed.

I'm just hoping he runs again, especially given I'm moving (for a time) to Vermont this year.

[KaiserDave]

Vermont is now leading the nation in vaccination

It's very white and very educated. My ZIP code is neither and is one of the lowest in NYC for vaccinations (less than 25%.) Compare that to nearby Park Slope which has nearly 60%.

Yeah both of those factors are super important.