Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[S019]

Could be interesting if democrats nominate this dude.

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1327632164968681474?s=20

Stupid is as stupid does

Why I’m stupid ? Politically extreme / very ideological candidates - Jealous / Kobach / Gillum - don’t have a particularly strong electoral record in gubernatorial races.

I think jdb was referring to Carter thinking he had a chance of winning, not your comment

[S019]

It will be funny if this is a long mega thread and Terry mcauliffe ends up winning by 10 to 13 points..

That is exactly what will happen if Amanda Chase is the nominee which probably has around a 40% chance of happening, and I'd say around 60% that someone like Bolling or Comstock is nominated, but T-Mac entering makes this Safe D, not in terms of margin, but in terms, of outcome.

[S019]

Convention means this is now for all intents and purposes Safe D, Amanda Chase isn't winning statewide. Bolling, Comstock, or someone similar now have no chances at the nomination.

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Sounds right

Interesting in terms of the comparison to Cuomo. I'm pretty sure I'd prefer Murphy to Cuomo though.

Murphy is definitely the less belligerent, more compassionate of the two, although he also doesn't have to deal with De Blasio mucking things up.

My somewhat hot take is that Murphy is probably more vulnerable in the primary than in the GE, his COVID response was really popular and in a state where any Republican must get almost a fifth of their total votes from Democrats if they hope to win, that makes getting those votes very tough, on the other hand, Norcross doesn't like him, and Murphy could have a closer than expected primary, if Norcross bankrolls a challenger.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1335287105619103744
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Republicans are way more likely to flip New Jersey next year.

Yep, although they will flip neither.

Virginia is also likely to have the stronger Dem nominee.

How popular is Phil Murphy?

Moderate. He has many of the same problems as Cuomo, in that he maintained an extremely strict approach to Covid well beyond when the state was in a crisis situation, horribly botched the nursing home situation, and has been caught in a few hypocrisies along the way. He'd be vulnerable if the Republicans had a candidate who could unite the opposition, peel off some centrist Dems, and avoid coming off like a wingnut...but they don't.

I'd say he has roughly a 70% chance of re-election, while McAuliffe would have a roughly 95% chance at winning his second term.

Do you view Hughin as a credible threat?

Not Ray Goldfield, but if Hugin could not beat a comically unpopular Senator, while flooding the airwaves, he isn't beating a popular Governor, either.

[S019]

https://mobile.twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1336691653692813317


GO AWAY!

[S019]

Carter's departure from HD-50 ironically makes me feel better about the seat. I wish he would stay in the house of delegates though as we need his voice. (I hate anyone who is wealthy).

But yea, HD-50 is relatively competitive for Northern Virginia so if the climate got good for the GOP it could flip especially with a Democrat like Carter.

I have not made a decision in the primary yet between Jennifer Carrol Foy or Terry Mcauliffe.

Hes running for reelection in HD-50 too so if he loses the VA gov dem primary he's still going to run for reelection. Also yall hate on Lee Carter away to much he's charismatic and funny af and has a very good story I don't think he'll win but he's got a better shot than you'd think

Lee Carter is a Rose Twitter grifter, there is absolutely a reason to hate him

[S019]

Carter's departure from HD-50 ironically makes me feel better about the seat. I wish he would stay in the house of delegates though as we need his voice. (I hate anyone who is wealthy).

But yea, HD-50 is relatively competitive for Northern Virginia so if the climate got good for the GOP it could flip especially with a Democrat like Carter.

I have not made a decision in the primary yet between Jennifer Carrol Foy or Terry Mcauliffe.

Hes running for reelection in HD-50 too so if he loses the VA gov dem primary he's still going to run for reelection. Also yall hate on Lee Carter away to much he's charismatic and funny af and has a very good story I don't think he'll win but he's got a better shot than you'd think

Lee Carter is a Rose Twitter grifter, there is absolutely a reason to hate him

Name one reason you hate hin lol. Hes been an effective legislator in the house of delegates and got Maced during the black lives matter protests I like the guy. It seems you don't like him cause he's funny on twitter lol.

He refused to endorse Biden...

[S019]

This race is pretty obviously Safe R, there are scores of Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters who will vote for Youngkin because they are worried about Biden's partisan actions in office, including repeatedly using reconciliation, not working with Republicans, and *gasp* floating repealing the filibuster. The voters in NoVA may be Democrats nowadays, but they are first and foremost moderates. Also all Youngkin needs to do is yell "Biden Off-Year Election" and he will win this in a walk.


Anyways to be serious for a moment, this race is obviously Safe D and I'd be shocked if it was within 5 for McAuliffe. If McAuliffe loses we're witnessing a Republican wave of monumental proportions and 2022 will likely put 1994 and 2010 to shame.

[S019]

This race is pretty obviously Safe R, there are scores of Clinton/Northam/Kaine/Biden/Warner voters who will vote for Youngkin because they are worried about Biden's partisan actions in office, including repeatedly using reconciliation, not working with Republicans, and *gasp* floating repealing the filibuster. The voters in NoVA may be Democrats nowadays, but they are first and foremost moderates. Also all Youngkin needs to do is yell "Biden Off-Year Election" and he will win this in a walk.


Anyways to be serious for a moment, this race is obviously Safe D and I'd be shocked if it was within 5 for McAuliffe. If McAuliffe loses we're witnessing a Republican wave of monumental proportions and 2022 will likely put 1994 and 2010 to shame.

Correct (the second paragraph).

Yeah it's Safe D, my first paragraph and my username are just mocking the usual suspects who think this will be competitive lol.

[S019]

Why do the Republicans not use primaries here?

I think it was so they could avoid nominating Amanda Chase. Also they clearly learned from 2008 and had more mainstream people attend too. Given how insane the VA GOP base is, in a primary, they very well could have nominated Chase and she would have dragged down the whole ticket.

[S019]

It's going to be incredibly embarrassing if Democrats lose this race but fortunately for Democrats, Youngkin is doing all he can to throw away (his admittedly slim) chances. At this point, I just don't think the votes for a GOP win exist in Virginia.

[S019]

It's going to be incredibly embarrassing if Democrats lose this race wins the race by 3 points 6 points single-digits but fortunately for Democrats, Youngkin is doing all he can to throw away (his admittedly slim) chances. At this point, I just don't think the votes for a GOP win exist in Virginia.

Fixed for moving goalposts

For the record, I fully expect Democrats to win and if they lose, it's a sign of a massive Republican wave (think R+8-10, if not more) building in 2022. As I said earlier, I don't think the votes exist for Republicans to win Virginia, at this point.

[S019]

Literally a week ago Republicans were complaining that "parents" should be able to protest school board hearings because something something first amendment.  But now they are appalled by peaceful demonstrators with torches.  Of course, there was little to no outrage regarding the actual Tiki torch rioters in Charlottesville.  No Virginia voters actually care about this political back and forth nonsense.  That will be made clear in a few days.

No one cares about your takes either but here we are.

You speak for everyone?  Not really interested in your opinion on anything.  Why don't you go back to hoping Youngkin wins Prince William?

Dude I live here and see how much worse things have gotten for my county with Dems in control.

This is your "take":

Democracy was a mistake

absolutely pathetic and disgusting. 

no u

Not "no u," you've shown you have no respect for democracy, which tbh knowing you isn't all that surprising. But, it's a wee-bit disturbing that the mask is finally off.

[S019]

Literally a week ago Republicans were complaining that "parents" should be able to protest school board hearings because something something first amendment.  But now they are appalled by peaceful demonstrators with torches.  Of course, there was little to no outrage regarding the actual Tiki torch rioters in Charlottesville.  No Virginia voters actually care about this political back and forth nonsense.  That will be made clear in a few days.

No one cares about your takes either but here we are.

You speak for everyone?  Not really interested in your opinion on anything.  Why don't you go back to hoping Youngkin wins Prince William?

Dude I live here and see how much worse things have gotten for my county with Dems in control.

This is your "take":

Democracy was a mistake

absolutely pathetic and disgusting. 

no u

Not "no u," you've shown you have no respect for democracy, which tbh knowing you isn't all that surprising. But, it's a wee-bit disturbing that the mask is finally off.

I just have no respect for you, kid.

Totally predictable response, as if anyone has any for you! Weak! Or, I guess, sad!

[S019]

Literally a week ago Republicans were complaining that "parents" should be able to protest school board hearings because something something first amendment.  But now they are appalled by peaceful demonstrators with torches.  Of course, there was little to no outrage regarding the actual Tiki torch rioters in Charlottesville.  No Virginia voters actually care about this political back and forth nonsense.  That will be made clear in a few days.

No one cares about your takes either but here we are.

You speak for everyone?  Not really interested in your opinion on anything.  Why don't you go back to hoping Youngkin wins Prince William?

Dude I live here and see how much worse things have gotten for my county with Dems in control.

This is your "take":

Democracy was a mistake

absolutely pathetic and disgusting. 

no u

Not "no u," you've shown you have no respect for democracy, which tbh knowing you isn't all that surprising. But, it's a wee-bit disturbing that the mask is finally off.

I just have no respect for you, kid.

Totally predictable response, as if anyone has any for you! Weak! Or, I guess, sad!

It's getting close to bedtime kid. I suggest you go brush your teeth and change into your pjs.

Lol, it's Friday, I'll be up until 4 AM, if I want. I'm more of a night owl anyways.

[S019]

Literally a week ago Republicans were complaining that "parents" should be able to protest school board hearings because something something first amendment.  But now they are appalled by peaceful demonstrators with torches.  Of course, there was little to no outrage regarding the actual Tiki torch rioters in Charlottesville.  No Virginia voters actually care about this political back and forth nonsense.  That will be made clear in a few days.

No one cares about your takes either but here we are.

You speak for everyone?  Not really interested in your opinion on anything.  Why don't you go back to hoping Youngkin wins Prince William?

Dude I live here and see how much worse things have gotten for my county with Dems in control.

This is your "take":

Democracy was a mistake

absolutely pathetic and disgusting. 

no u

Not "no u," you've shown you have no respect for democracy, which tbh knowing you isn't all that surprising. But, it's a wee-bit disturbing that the mask is finally off.

She hates democracy because no one shares her views. 

She hates Virginia because she's not doing well. 

Things haven't gotten "worse" in fact Virginia is wealthier and doing better than ever.  Maybe not for her, but that's nobody's fault but her own.  It's easy to blame "LIBS" for everyones problems rather than face the reality.

nah, I just have no respect for sheltered upper middle class kids that think they have valuable opinions

I'm sure those "upper middle class kids" could care less whether you respect them or not.  You are unhappy with leadership and how things have gotten worse for you.  And you don't even believe in democracy.  So I guess they're doing just fine.

It's always funny when elitists like yourself have no desire to understand why working class people aren't interested in what you have to offer.

You may not be interested in what elitists have to offer, but you do realize that the Democratic Party is the party that is working in Congress right now to create more programs to help the working poor, while the Republican Party is the party of giving tax cuts to big corporations and wealthy donors. If it wasn't scary, I'd find it hilarious how well the Republicans have conned people like you. Youngkin is a multi-millionaire, he doesn't care one bit about people like you, he only cares about his rich business friends.

[S019]

I can't wait for the Democrats to win just so they confiscate all of NSV's earnings. I would commit so much voter fraud for whatever politician created that outcome.

I don't think NSV is even that rich, and wealth confiscation is just bad policy in general, look at how well it has worked out, wherever it's been tried.

[S019]

I can't wait for the Democrats to win just so they confiscate all of NSV's earnings. I would commit so much voter fraud for whatever politician created that outcome.

I don't think NSV is even that rich, and wealth confiscation is just bad policy in general, look at how well it has worked out, wherever it's been tried.

You just hate poor people.

What do you want? Everyone paying a flat dollar amount in tax regardless of income?

I prefer a fairly progressive tax with low business taxes.

Confiscating all earnings is very different from a progressive tax system, I'm fine with a progressive tax system, but the top marginal rate should be no more than 45-50%.

[S019]

I can't wait for the Democrats to win just so they confiscate all of NSV's earnings. I would commit so much voter fraud for whatever politician created that outcome.

I don't think NSV is even that rich, and wealth confiscation is just bad policy in general, look at how well it has worked out, wherever it's been tried.

You just hate poor people.

What do you want? Everyone paying a flat dollar amount in tax regardless of income?

I prefer a fairly progressive tax with low business taxes.

Confiscating all earnings is very different from a progressive tax system, I'm fine with a progressive tax system, but the top marginal rate should be no more than 45-50%.

and blue states already pay way more than their fair share.  And cost of living is higher in blue states yet the tax rates are the same for everyone. 

The answer to this is to bring back the SALT deduction, fortunately it looks like Suozzi is going to save the Democrats from themselves here.

[S019]

Literally a week ago Republicans were complaining that "parents" should be able to protest school board hearings because something something first amendment.  But now they are appalled by peaceful demonstrators with torches.  Of course, there was little to no outrage regarding the actual Tiki torch rioters in Charlottesville.  No Virginia voters actually care about this political back and forth nonsense.  That will be made clear in a few days.

No one cares about your takes either but here we are.

You speak for everyone?  Not really interested in your opinion on anything.  Why don't you go back to hoping Youngkin wins Prince William?

Dude I live here and see how much worse things have gotten for my county with Dems in control.

This is your "take":

Democracy was a mistake

absolutely pathetic and disgusting.  

The irony of you calling anything pathetic or disgusting after literally being a apologist for a white supremacist false flag...

In what world are you living.

I'm really not going to waste any more of my time on your drivel.  Thanks but ignore you go with the democracy hater!

Blocking is "the result of no viable argument".. anyway, you're a complete lunatic who is siding with a organization that has harboured paedophiles and as we know staged white supremacist false flags.

This is rich coming from someone who voted for a President that called white supremacists, "very fine people."

[S019]

Anyone want to take a stab at county level benchmarks for the 2021 VA GOV election?

Odd year elections are weird and Gubernatorial Elections even weirder than Federal Elections on many levels, but curious if any of our Atlas Geeks want to take a stab at what we should be looking at election Night when it comes to performance by party?

Not really an expert at all on VA elections, but would be interesting to see, especially since if past is future, rural counties tend to start reporting results earlier and then NOVA dumps last....

OR will NOVA dump EVs early and then give us some idea of how the night might develop as same-day and late EV votes trickle in?

Atlas Hive--- Thoughts???

I'm not sure, but Dave Wasserman at Cook had this a while back:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1445060377197305868

[S019]

Literally a week ago Republicans were complaining that "parents" should be able to protest school board hearings because something something first amendment.  But now they are appalled by peaceful demonstrators with torches.  Of course, there was little to no outrage regarding the actual Tiki torch rioters in Charlottesville.  No Virginia voters actually care about this political back and forth nonsense.  That will be made clear in a few days.

No one cares about your takes either but here we are.

You speak for everyone?  Not really interested in your opinion on anything.  Why don't you go back to hoping Youngkin wins Prince William?

Dude I live here and see how much worse things have gotten for my county with Dems in control.

This is your "take":

Democracy was a mistake

absolutely pathetic and disgusting.  

The irony of you calling anything pathetic or disgusting after literally being a apologist for a white supremacist false flag...

In what world are you living.

I'm really not going to waste any more of my time on your drivel.  Thanks but ignore you go with the democracy hater!

Blocking is "the result of no viable argument".. anyway, you're a complete lunatic who is siding with a organization that has harboured paedophiles and as we know staged white supremacist false flags.

This is rich coming from someone who voted for a President that called white supremacists, "very fine people."

Provide me with a direct quote that he said directly white supremacists were very fine people.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2019/apr/26/context-trumps-very-fine-people-both-sides-remarks/

Reporter: "The neo-Nazis started this. They showed up in Charlottesville to protest --"

Trump: "Excuse me, excuse me. They didn’t put themselves -- and you had some very bad people in that group, but you also had people that were very fine people, on both sides. You had people in that group. Excuse me, excuse me. I saw the same pictures as you did. You had people in that group that were there to protest the taking down of, to them, a very, very important statue and the renaming of a park from Robert E. Lee to another name."

[S019]

Literally a week ago Republicans were complaining that "parents" should be able to protest school board hearings because something something first amendment.  But now they are appalled by peaceful demonstrators with torches.  Of course, there was little to no outrage regarding the actual Tiki torch rioters in Charlottesville.  No Virginia voters actually care about this political back and forth nonsense.  That will be made clear in a few days.

No one cares about your takes either but here we are.

You speak for everyone?  Not really interested in your opinion on anything.  Why don't you go back to hoping Youngkin wins Prince William?

Dude I live here and see how much worse things have gotten for my county with Dems in control.

This is your "take":

Democracy was a mistake

absolutely pathetic and disgusting.  

The irony of you calling anything pathetic or disgusting after literally being a apologist for a white supremacist false flag...

In what world are you living.

I'm really not going to waste any more of my time on your drivel.  Thanks but ignore you go with the democracy hater!

Blocking is "the result of no viable argument".. anyway, you're a complete lunatic who is siding with a organization that has harboured paedophiles and as we know staged white supremacist false flags.

This is rich coming from someone who voted for a President that called white supremacists, "very fine people."

Provide me with a direct quote that he said directly white supremacists were very fine people.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2019/apr/26/context-trumps-very-fine-people-both-sides-remarks/

Reporter: "The neo-Nazis started this. They showed up in Charlottesville to protest --"

Trump: "Excuse me, excuse me. They didn’t put themselves -- and you had some very bad people in that group, but you also had people that were very fine people, on both sides. You had people in that group. Excuse me, excuse me. I saw the same pictures as you did. You had people in that group that were there to protest the taking down of, to them, a very, very important statue and the renaming of a park from Robert E. Lee to another name."

No direct mention in that statement that white supremacists are "very fine people".. in fact he later went on to state.

"You’re changing history. You’re changing culture. And you had people — and I’m not talking about the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists — because they should be condemned totally. But you had many people in that group other than neo-Nazis and white nationalists."

Did you read the question? The reporter said the "neo-Nazis started it" and then Trump says you had some bad people in "that group," but also "very fine people" on "both sides," which implies "that group," this is basic reading comprehension.

[S019]

Literally a week ago Republicans were complaining that "parents" should be able to protest school board hearings because something something first amendment.  But now they are appalled by peaceful demonstrators with torches.  Of course, there was little to no outrage regarding the actual Tiki torch rioters in Charlottesville.  No Virginia voters actually care about this political back and forth nonsense.  That will be made clear in a few days.

No one cares about your takes either but here we are.

You speak for everyone?  Not really interested in your opinion on anything.  Why don't you go back to hoping Youngkin wins Prince William?

Dude I live here and see how much worse things have gotten for my county with Dems in control.

This is your "take":

Democracy was a mistake

absolutely pathetic and disgusting.  

The irony of you calling anything pathetic or disgusting after literally being a apologist for a white supremacist false flag...

In what world are you living.

I'm really not going to waste any more of my time on your drivel.  Thanks but ignore you go with the democracy hater!

Blocking is "the result of no viable argument".. anyway, you're a complete lunatic who is siding with a organization that has harboured paedophiles and as we know staged white supremacist false flags.

This is rich coming from someone who voted for a President that called white supremacists, "very fine people."

Provide me with a direct quote that he said directly white supremacists were very fine people.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2019/apr/26/context-trumps-very-fine-people-both-sides-remarks/

Reporter: "The neo-Nazis started this. They showed up in Charlottesville to protest --"

Trump: "Excuse me, excuse me. They didn’t put themselves -- and you had some very bad people in that group, but you also had people that were very fine people, on both sides. You had people in that group. Excuse me, excuse me. I saw the same pictures as you did. You had people in that group that were there to protest the taking down of, to them, a very, very important statue and the renaming of a park from Robert E. Lee to another name."

You don't owe him a thoughtful response.

How exactly is posting a quote that contains none of what he claimed trump to say is a thoughtful response.. anyway, I thought put you put on ignore for supposed 'Qanon trash".

He literally said it at a press conference omg, can you read?

[S019]

Apparently Zogby hasn't ruined his reputation enough yet, if people are still holding up him as an accurate pollster.