Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Chips]

I'm done here, I'll check by here before I go to work tomorrow.

Good night!

Also it's back down to 86K now

88k now. Also, over 95% is in.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Why do people keep trying to make this about "white voters mad at the Democrats"? Youngkin is overperforming with everyone. That's like saying that Laura Kelly winning in 2018 meant white voters were going D en masse.

     Seems like every surprise Dem loss gets pinned on angry white voters, regardless of what the crosstabs actually show.

[LimoLiberal]

The Democratic holds in the HoD are pretty damn impressive. Not one seat lost in Loudoun, PWC. Just one loss in VA Beach. Not one seat lost in suburban Richmond! If it weren't for a freak upset with supercharged Poquoson turnout Democrats would still have control!

These are some strong, strong incumbents in the suburbs. Gonna be hard to dislodge some of these people with new maps in 2023 (barring a VA Supreme Court gerrymander).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WaPo finally fixed the error in Frederick, and Virginia Beach is no longer completely in.
Candidate Votes Pct.
Glenn Youngkin GOP 1,582,534 51.0%
Terry McAuliffe DEM 1,496,177 48.3
Princess Blanding OTH 21,760 0.7
An estimated 95% of votes have been counted.

I still think it's Youngkin+1-2.

Youngkin+2 feels like a bit much atm. But at the same time, who knows.
The last 5% will be very crucial, per always.

True, I think it'll be closer to 1 than 2. I feel like this race won't be called until sometime tomorrow.

Yeah.
If it counts for anything Arlington is only 98.3% in.
But yeah, this probably won't be called today.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://twitter.com/George_A_Callas/status/1455726717411135488

What do these acronyms mean

so truuuuuuuuuuuuuuueeeeee

[Thunder98]

Younking's margin just went up again by a tiny bit.

[soundchaser]

Are we expecting a vote dump from Essex any time soon?

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455738055776772099?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/George_A_Callas/status/1455726717411135488

What do these acronyms mean

so truuuuuuuuuuuuuuueeeeee

Yeah, I can't tell what they stand for either.

[NOVA Green]

Quick question....

Any intelligent poster here know how Virginia counts Provisional Votes?

Are they included in the initial results, set aside to be counted later, etc....?

Since nobody responded.... here is a follow-up question as someone who has lived in an exclusively VbM state for many years:

How does VA have ballot drop box locations staged?

For example: We voted today in OR and because my wife was working and the only thing on our ballot was an initiative to add $$$ for the local Sheriff's department, we weren't pressed to vote early and my wife dropped them off at a ballot box in the neighboring county.

Naturally these votes would not be included in the initial returns but will be added to the final returns, since dropping a ballot in a designated drop site by 8:00 PM on election Night is considered the vote delivered into the hands of the State Elections division, regardless of whatever county you are living in.

IDK how VA is on all this, especially since they are relatively new to VbM and all that, but I could imagine if VA law is similar there could be potentially 10-20k same day ballots in the most heavily populated regions of VA such as NoVA, metro Richmond, and Tidewater....

Thoughts Atlas Hive???

For some reason a political website where VA avatars are so over-represented, I still haven't seen a single response?

WTF is so difficult about the fundamental questions which I am asking when it comes to how VA counts votes, especially with the shift to mail in ballots?

This is not a College Grad School type question, but apparently the average VA poster has only an HS Educational Level if they can't even address the fundamentals of what could well take this election down to a potential DEM win or recount zone....

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Dems about to use the Murphy comeback as evidence it wasn't a total rejection of Biden centrism lmao

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/George_A_Callas/status/1455726717411135488

What do these acronyms mean

so truuuuuuuuuuuuuuueeeeee

Yeah, I can't tell what they stand for either.

That’s the joke guys

[Thunder98]

The AG race is super close.

[Chips]

WaPo finally fixed the error in Frederick, and Virginia Beach is no longer completely in.
Candidate Votes Pct.
Glenn Youngkin GOP 1,582,534 51.0%
Terry McAuliffe DEM 1,496,177 48.3
Princess Blanding OTH 21,760 0.7
An estimated 95% of votes have been counted.

I still think it's Youngkin+1-2.

Youngkin+2 feels like a bit much atm. But at the same time, who knows.
The last 5% will be very crucial, per always.

True, I think it'll be closer to 1 than 2. I feel like this race won't be called until sometime tomorrow.

Yeah.
If it counts for anything Arlington is only 98.3% in.
But yeah, this probably won't be called today.

Chesterfield is the bulk of what's out it seems. It's a 12 point Youngkin lead with 61% in. I think if McAuliffe is unable to get that margin down to 2-3, the race has a good chance of being over.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Quick question....

Any intelligent poster here know how Virginia counts Provisional Votes?

Are they included in the initial results, set aside to be counted later, etc....?

Since nobody responded.... here is a follow-up question as someone who has lived in an exclusively VbM state for many years:

How does VA have ballot drop box locations staged?

For example: We voted today in OR and because my wife was working and the only thing on our ballot was an initiative to add $$$ for the local Sheriff's department, we weren't pressed to vote early and my wife dropped them off at a ballot box in the neighboring county.

Naturally these votes would not be included in the initial returns but will be added to the final returns, since dropping a ballot in a designated drop site by 8:00 PM on election Night is considered the vote delivered into the hands of the State Elections division, regardless of whatever county you are living in.

IDK how VA is on all this, especially since they are relatively new to VbM and all that, but I could imagine if VA law is similar there could be potentially 10-20k same day ballots in the most heavily populated regions of VA such as NoVA, metro Richmond, and Tidewater....

Thoughts Atlas Hive???

For some reason a political website where VA avatars are so over-represented, I still haven't seen a single response?

WTF is so difficult about the fundamental questions which I am asking when it comes to how VA counts votes, especially with the shift to mail in ballots?

This is not a College Grad School type question, but apparently the average VA poster has only an HS Educational Level if they can't even address the fundamentals of what could well take this election down to a potential DEM win or recount zone....

I would advise sending PMs to Hyouzel, NSV, and Jimmie, asking for a response either in PM or in thread. All three of them are based in Northern Virginia, so they should probably have the local knowledge.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WaPo finally fixed the error in Frederick, and Virginia Beach is no longer completely in.
Candidate Votes Pct.
Glenn Youngkin GOP 1,582,534 51.0%
Terry McAuliffe DEM 1,496,177 48.3
Princess Blanding OTH 21,760 0.7
An estimated 95% of votes have been counted.

I still think it's Youngkin+1-2.

Youngkin+2 feels like a bit much atm. But at the same time, who knows.
The last 5% will be very crucial, per always.

True, I think it'll be closer to 1 than 2. I feel like this race won't be called until sometime tomorrow.

Yeah.
If it counts for anything Arlington is only 98.3% in.
But yeah, this probably won't be called today.

Chesterfield is the bulk of what's out it seems. It's a 12 point Youngkin lead with 61% in. I think if McAuliffe is unable to get that margin down to 2-3, the race has a good chance of being over I think.

Interesting. I didn't even notice that.
Yeah I don't think I can disagree too much with that, though I probably assume there to be more presumably pro-D votes left than you do. It's up to Chesterfield and them. And those votes will have to be counted.
We might have a recount.

[Utah Neolib]

Waiting for Youngkin vs McAuliffe 2025 rematch predictions

[BG-NY]

I thought if Youngkin was going to win (which I did not expect at all) it would be a nailbiter. A minimum 2.5 point win (might be >3) is astounding. Most shocking result since AL-SEN in 2017.

[Chips]

WaPo finally fixed the error in Frederick, and Virginia Beach is no longer completely in.
Candidate Votes Pct.
Glenn Youngkin GOP 1,582,534 51.0%
Terry McAuliffe DEM 1,496,177 48.3
Princess Blanding OTH 21,760 0.7
An estimated 95% of votes have been counted.

I still think it's Youngkin+1-2.

Youngkin+2 feels like a bit much atm. But at the same time, who knows.
The last 5% will be very crucial, per always.

True, I think it'll be closer to 1 than 2. I feel like this race won't be called until sometime tomorrow.

Yeah.
If it counts for anything Arlington is only 98.3% in.
But yeah, this probably won't be called today.

Chesterfield is the bulk of what's out it seems. It's a 12 point Youngkin lead with 61% in. I think if McAuliffe is unable to get that margin down to 2-3, the race has a good chance of being over I think.

Interesting. I didn't even notice that.
Yeah I don't think I can disagree too much with that, though I probably assume there to be more presumably pro-D votes left than you do. It's up to Chesterfield and them. And those votes will have to be counted.
We might have a recount.

It's possible. If I had to estimate the probabilities, I'd say Youngkin has roughly an 80-85% chance to win based on what's out which I think is fair.

[Big Abraham]

Waiting for Youngkin vs McAuliffe 2025 rematch predictions

Youngkin can't run for a second consecutive term.

[Gass3268]

My Youngkin 1-2 point win prediction looking good.

[lfromnj]

Also I hope everyone learnt their lesson about even taking Target Smart semi seriously.

[Bootes Void]

Waiting for Youngkin vs McAuliffe 2025 rematch predictions

Youngkin can't run again in 2025 and I guess McAuliffe will probably retire from politics or take another post of some sort

[Chips]

My Youngkin 1-2 point win prediction looking good.

I had McAuliffe up by 2. Still, that wouldn't be too terribly off despite me getting the winner wrong. I think it's probably Youngkin+1 or so when all the votes are counted.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Quick question....

Any intelligent poster here know how Virginia counts Provisional Votes?

Are they included in the initial results, set aside to be counted later, etc....?

Since nobody responded.... here is a follow-up question as someone who has lived in an exclusively VbM state for many years:

How does VA have ballot drop box locations staged?

For example: We voted today in OR and because my wife was working and the only thing on our ballot was an initiative to add $$$ for the local Sheriff's department, we weren't pressed to vote early and my wife dropped them off at a ballot box in the neighboring county.

Naturally these votes would not be included in the initial returns but will be added to the final returns, since dropping a ballot in a designated drop site by 8:00 PM on election Night is considered the vote delivered into the hands of the State Elections division, regardless of whatever county you are living in.

IDK how VA is on all this, especially since they are relatively new to VbM and all that, but I could imagine if VA law is similar there could be potentially 10-20k same day ballots in the most heavily populated regions of VA such as NoVA, metro Richmond, and Tidewater....

Thoughts Atlas Hive???

For some reason a political website where VA avatars are so over-represented, I still haven't seen a single response?

WTF is so difficult about the fundamental questions which I am asking when it comes to how VA counts votes, especially with the shift to mail in ballots?

This is not a College Grad School type question, but apparently the average VA poster has only an HS Educational Level if they can't even address the fundamentals of what could well take this election down to a potential DEM win or recount zone....

I would advise sending PMs to Hyouzel, NSV, and Jimmie, asking for a response either in PM or in thread. All three of them are based in Northern Virginia, so they should probably have the local knowledge.

NSV won't be contactable for months.