PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[wbrocks67]

Looks like we're currently in the lead, or poised to take the lead with final mail-in ballot counting, in 102 of the 203 PA State House seats.  A flip would mark the first time in 12 years that Dems have won the majority in the State House.

Any update on this? I saw on msnbc last night someone said it has come down to one house seat and there is currently a difference of ~100 votes. What is the current makeup of the state senate?

It's 101D and 100R I believe right now, with 2 left to decide. The GOP is up 114 votes in one, and 12 votes in another. I think the latter will ultimately have the Democrat winning but not sure about the former. I think 102D-101R is most likely

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like we're currently in the lead, or poised to take the lead with final mail-in ballot counting, in 102 of the 203 PA State House seats.  A flip would mark the first time in 12 years that Dems have won the majority in the State House.

Any update on this? I saw on msnbc last night someone said it has come down to one house seat and there is currently a difference of ~100 votes. What is the current makeup of the state senate?

It's 101D and 100R I believe right now, with 2 left to decide. The GOP is up 114 votes in one, and 12 votes in another. I think the latter will ultimately have the Democrat winning but not sure about the former. I think 102D-101R is most likely

The expectation was last week that an uncounted Eday Box would put Reps ahead in the seat dems had a 2-vote lead in, and Montgomery's outstanding small number of mail votes would put dems in the seat for the 12-vote GOP one. The former has happened, we are waiting on the second. Recounts possible in both plus a few more.

[Yoda]

Looks like we're currently in the lead, or poised to take the lead with final mail-in ballot counting, in 102 of the 203 PA State House seats.  A flip would mark the first time in 12 years that Dems have won the majority in the State House.

Any update on this? I saw on msnbc last night someone said it has come down to one house seat and there is currently a difference of ~100 votes. What is the current makeup of the state senate?

It's 101D and 100R I believe right now, with 2 left to decide. The GOP is up 114 votes in one, and 12 votes in another. I think the latter will ultimately have the Democrat winning but not sure about the former. I think 102D-101R is most likely

The expectation was last week that an uncounted Eday Box would put Reps ahead in the seat dems had a 2-vote lead in, and Montgomery's outstanding small number of mail votes would put dems in the seat for the 12-vote GOP one. The former has happened, we are waiting on the second. Recounts possible in both plus a few more.

Damn that's crazy close. What's the state senate situation? R's remain in control?

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like we're currently in the lead, or poised to take the lead with final mail-in ballot counting, in 102 of the 203 PA State House seats.  A flip would mark the first time in 12 years that Dems have won the majority in the State House.

Any update on this? I saw on msnbc last night someone said it has come down to one house seat and there is currently a difference of ~100 votes. What is the current makeup of the state senate?

It's 101D and 100R I believe right now, with 2 left to decide. The GOP is up 114 votes in one, and 12 votes in another. I think the latter will ultimately have the Democrat winning but not sure about the former. I think 102D-101R is most likely

The expectation was last week that an uncounted Eday Box would put Reps ahead in the seat dems had a 2-vote lead in, and Montgomery's outstanding small number of mail votes would put dems in the seat for the 12-vote GOP one. The former has happened, we are waiting on the second. Recounts possible in both plus a few more.

Damn that's crazy close. What's the state senate situation? R's remain in control?

PAs a half-and-half state for the senate, so there was near-zero chance of dems taking the chamber this year. They got the marginals needed to contest the chamber in 2024, when 1 seat is a guaranteed flip in Harrisburg. Dems probably would have tied the chamber, looking at the statewide returns, if everything was up like in other states.

[lfromnj]

Looks like we're currently in the lead, or poised to take the lead with final mail-in ballot counting, in 102 of the 203 PA State House seats.  A flip would mark the first time in 12 years that Dems have won the majority in the State House.

Any update on this? I saw on msnbc last night someone said it has come down to one house seat and there is currently a difference of ~100 votes. What is the current makeup of the state senate?

It's 101D and 100R I believe right now, with 2 left to decide. The GOP is up 114 votes in one, and 12 votes in another. I think the latter will ultimately have the Democrat winning but not sure about the former. I think 102D-101R is most likely

The expectation was last week that an uncounted Eday Box would put Reps ahead in the seat dems had a 2-vote lead in, and Montgomery's outstanding small number of mail votes would put dems in the seat for the 12-vote GOP one. The former has happened, we are waiting on the second. Recounts possible in both plus a few more.

Damn that's crazy close. What's the state senate situation? R's remain in control?

PAs a half-and-half state for the senate, so there was near-zero chance of dems taking the chamber this year. They got the marginals needed to contest the chamber in 2024, when 1 seat is a guaranteed flip in Harrisburg. Dems probably would have tied the chamber, looking at the statewide returns, if everything was up like in other states.

They still held a Biden state senate seat this year in outer Montco. The map itself is 25-25 Biden Trump which means Dems now have to win a Trump seat. There are 3 Marginal Trump seats with the remaining 22 being pretty safe. The 3 marginal Trump seats being a southwest Allegheny seat wrapping around the edges of the county , and then 1 in southern Bucks, and finally that splits Scranton and takes in Monroe and Carbon County. R's easily held the latter 2 so the only possible seat would be the Allegheny seat. Along with that R's also hold the Erie County senate seat which will be up in 2024. The R won by a large margin in 2020 but IIRC that was because the dem had a "scandal" with some local issue where she opposed what a lot of the district wanted.

[Oryxslayer]

Yes, those are the two +Harrisburg. Dems want them to tie the chamber in 2024, which in practice is a flip given the lt. Gov slot.

If they were up this year, when the Shapiro-slide came through, I think they would get all three.  But that's just my opinion on a hypothetical,  so we can all choose to believe what we want.  The Harrisburg seat is free, dems had a exceptionally good night in Allegheny (see Ben forstate on twitter), and I wouldn't be surprised if Erie behaved like the two Lehigh seats.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1592942140778491905?s=20&t=aJJ5Eij...

And the expected also happens in HD-151. Recounts and challenged ballots are all that remains statewide for the chamber.

Safe D HDs 34 and 35 will however instantly have special elections after the inaugural session, the latter because of the above (which is a mistake, he's the lt gov elect), the former because of Summer Lee going to congress. 32 is the actual Safe D seat with the dead Dem.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1592942140778491905?s=20&t=aJJ5Eij...

And the expected also happens in HD-151. Recounts and challenged ballots are all that remains statewide for the chamber.

Safe D HDs 34 and 35 will however instantly have special elections after the inaugural session, the latter because of the above (which is a mistake, he's the lt gov elect), the former because of Summer Lee going to congress. 32 is the actual Safe D seat with the dead Dem.

wow the house could very well flip?

Are 34 and 35 safe districts?

[Oryxslayer]

They are all in Allegheny and safe. I'm sure the GOP will contest them all for control, but 32, 34, and 35 are all gonna vote Dem. Until then, the chamber might be rather hectic - and still will afterwards with the 1-vote gap. its a preview of the US house and maybe NH House (though defections there are more common).

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the PA house has almost certainly flipped, but the GOP will still end up holding a de-facto majority for months anyway because of vacancies? Wonderful. Just our luck.

[Epaminondas]

How many PA state senate seats did Shapiro carry?

I wouldn't be surprised if it was 30/50.

[wbrocks67]

It's too bad all state senate seats weren't up this time. I think we may have had a chance at that chamber as well?

[Tekken_Guy]

It's too bad all state senate seats weren't up this time. I think we may have had a chance at that chamber as well?

There are like three pick-up opportunities for the Dems in 2024. There's the new Harrisburg seat which is a safe flip, and the Erie and south Allegheny seats which will be highly competitive. Meanwhile defense for Dems comes down to the east Allegheny and Reading seats.

Winning the southwest Bucks, north Montgomery, and Monroe County seats, or even the Lehigh-Bucks seat would have made lives way easier for them in 2024.

[Oryxslayer]

It's too bad all state senate seats weren't up this time. I think we may have had a chance at that chamber as well?

There are like three pick-up opportunities for the Dems in 2024. There's the new Harrisburg seat which is a safe flip, and the Erie and south Allegheny seats which will be highly competitive. Meanwhile defense for Dems comes down to the east Allegheny and Reading seats.

Winning the southwest Bucks, north Montgomery, and Monroe County seats, or even the Lehigh-Bucks seat would have made lives way easier for them in 2024.

Note the east Allegheny seat got much bluer in redistricting from its narrow 2020 result,  and Lehigh Bucks wasn't seriously targeted. I personally think the three up in 24 are more likely flips then any of the above,  given self-reinforcing downballot lag and local incumbents,  but that doesn't make the fight for control in 24 any easier.

[BenjiG98]

Luzerne County BOE voted to not certify its results. Despite having a 3-2 D membership, Schramm voted to abstain, citing that "he wants to know what happens if the vote is not certified."

https://twitter.com/chelseastrub/status/1597265703761240064

[President Johnson]

Luzerne County BOE voted to not certify its results. Despite having a 3-2 D membership, Schramm voted to abstain, citing that "he wants to know what happens if the vote is not certified."

https://twitter.com/chelseastrub/status/1597265703761240064

This is so ridiculous. Trump really destroyed the credibility of elections with a significant junk of the public because his own little ego could not handle a loss.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Luzerne County BOE voted to not certify its results. Despite having a 3-2 D membership, Schramm voted to abstain, citing that "he wants to know what happens if the vote is not certified."

What a pathetic clown. Democracy is under attack and he treats it like a game. Disgraceful. If Democrats have any ability to kick him out they should do so as soon as possible.

[Skill and Chance]

Luzerne County BOE voted to not certify its results. Despite having a 3-2 D membership, Schramm voted to abstain, citing that "he wants to know what happens if the vote is not certified."

What a pathetic clown. Democracy is under attack and he treats it like a game. Disgraceful. If Democrats have any ability to kick him out they should do so as soon as possible.

IDK he might have the right idea.  It could be quite good to set a precedent on how to handle this before it happens in a seriously disputed election?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Luzerne County BOE voted to not certify its results. Despite having a 3-2 D membership, Schramm voted to abstain, citing that "he wants to know what happens if the vote is not certified."

What a pathetic clown. Democracy is under attack and he treats it like a game. Disgraceful. If Democrats have any ability to kick him out they should do so as soon as possible.

IDK he might have the right idea.  It could be quite good to set a precedent on how to handle this before it happens in a seriously disputed election?

Maybe? I'm still not sure this was the right way to go about it.

[S019]

Don’t really know where to put this, but I suppose we can make it a general PA threas.

Anyways Lamb is planning a political comeback:

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1598692219422220290?s=46&t=IkPSf6Z...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Don’t really know where to put this, but I suppose we can make it a general PA threas.

Anyways Lamb is planning a political comeback:

https://twitter.com/jonathantamari/status/1598692219422220290?s=46&t=IkPSf6Z...

I feel Lamb’s consolation prize of getting AG has been assumed for months now

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I always expected Lamb for AG and he seemed the most prime for Shapiro to appoint. AFAIK, Shapiro and Lamb have a good relationship, and he would make the most sense, especially with his background as a prosecutor.

Given that Dems now have the State House too, it makes it easier for someone like Lamb to win a confirmation vote too.

[Spectator]

Does the appointed AG need to be approved by the state senate?

[wbrocks67]

Does the appointed AG need to be approved by the state senate?

I'd have to look into it - For some reason I thought I saw that both have to approve it. So if that's the case, then at least it's halfway there.

[Virginiá]

Isn't it pro forma for PA AG appointees to not run in the next general election?