PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/VoteLaughlin/status/1385410853525204993

[lfromnj]

Yeah, it's too bad that when the CDs got redrawn in 2018 that the state legislative districts didn't get redrawn too, b/c until that happens with a fair map, the GOP will keep control of all of that. Super frustrating. If a 10pt win in 2018 couldn't even do it, then Dems have no hope until there is a new map.

They didn't win by 10 points.  The GOP only fielded 144 candidates for the 203 seats while Democrats nearly contested every seat to 183. A lot of the seats the GOP left uncontested were heavily D but it was by no means a 10 point victory.

Infact Biden won by 1 point in PA and won 25/50 districts LOL.

[lfromnj]

I think the geographic polarization just shows why Mastriano ain't winning the general election. Even registered Republicans in the urban and suburban areas can't stand him.

Sort of but its important to note PA voters often just vote based on the county home on the ballot. I assume McSwain and White are from Chester/Delaware.

[lfromnj]

Looks like we're currently in the lead, or poised to take the lead with final mail-in ballot counting, in 102 of the 203 PA State House seats.  A flip would mark the first time in 12 years that Dems have won the majority in the State House.

Any update on this? I saw on msnbc last night someone said it has come down to one house seat and there is currently a difference of ~100 votes. What is the current makeup of the state senate?

It's 101D and 100R I believe right now, with 2 left to decide. The GOP is up 114 votes in one, and 12 votes in another. I think the latter will ultimately have the Democrat winning but not sure about the former. I think 102D-101R is most likely

The expectation was last week that an uncounted Eday Box would put Reps ahead in the seat dems had a 2-vote lead in, and Montgomery's outstanding small number of mail votes would put dems in the seat for the 12-vote GOP one. The former has happened, we are waiting on the second. Recounts possible in both plus a few more.

Damn that's crazy close. What's the state senate situation? R's remain in control?

PAs a half-and-half state for the senate, so there was near-zero chance of dems taking the chamber this year. They got the marginals needed to contest the chamber in 2024, when 1 seat is a guaranteed flip in Harrisburg. Dems probably would have tied the chamber, looking at the statewide returns, if everything was up like in other states.

They still held a Biden state senate seat this year in outer Montco. The map itself is 25-25 Biden Trump which means Dems now have to win a Trump seat. There are 3 Marginal Trump seats with the remaining 22 being pretty safe. The 3 marginal Trump seats being a southwest Allegheny seat wrapping around the edges of the county , and then 1 in southern Bucks, and finally that splits Scranton and takes in Monroe and Carbon County. R's easily held the latter 2 so the only possible seat would be the Allegheny seat. Along with that R's also hold the Erie County senate seat which will be up in 2024. The R won by a large margin in 2020 but IIRC that was because the dem had a "scandal" with some local issue where she opposed what a lot of the district wanted.