Scotland/Wales 2007

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Basically we should allow the local party to choose their own candidate whoever it is and keep door Knocking with face to face contact.

Absolutely

---

Re; Robert Sheridan Silk... he should call his new party... Verdigris

[afleitch]

Sheridan has rejected any moves by Respect to welcome him into their fold, Which doesn't suprise me; he is rumoured to have developed an increasing dislike of George Galloway's party after last years conference and the Scottish Socialist Youth hate their counterparts

[afleitch]

Are the 'Tartan Tories' back?....

Yet more from the SNP as they continue their recent policy releases.

'The SNP yesterday pledged to reopen a controversial "boot camp" for young offenders. The scheme, based in Carluke, Lanarkshire, closed when the Scottish Executive withdrew its £600,000 funding. But yesterday Kenny MacAskill, the SNP's justice spokesman, branded that a mistake and promised his party would reinstate the project.'

'SNP Deputy Health Spokesperson Stewart Maxwell MSP today called for a fundamental review of NHS 24 to deliver a better deal for patients, starting with the service being devolved to all Health Boards. Mr Maxwell made the call following the annual review of NHS 24.'

[afleitch]

Like the specially commissioned 'poll' by the Conservatives a few months back, this new poll should be taken with a pinch of salt

Scottish Opinion interviewed 1000 voters, but did not break the question down into constituency and regional votes. Only 58% expressed support for a party and from this:

SNP 33%
LAB 29%
LIB 19%
CON 10%
GRE 5%
SSP 2%

Bear in mind neither the Greens or the SSP are likely to runin the constituencies (and the SSP may not even exist) and once again, Tory support is probably underestimated. This happened in 2003 and the party performed better than anticipated on the night.

On April 18th 2003, the Herald commisioned a 'superpoll' breaking questions down regionally as well as nationally.

It predicted

LAB 47
SNP 36
LIB 18
CON 13
GRE 3
SSP 2

The average predicted national constituency share of the vote for all pollsters during the 2003 campaign and how it compared to the actual vote

LAB 37.75% (+2.86)
SNP 28.75% (+4.98)
LIB 12.88% (-2.25)
CON 11.5% (-5.03)
SSP 5% (-1.68)

Both Labour and the SNP (particularly the SNP) were over estimated and both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives were underestimated. The same happpened in the 1999 campaign too with the notorious System 3.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With the exception of an apparent swing from the Tories to the SNP, these numbers look to be about the same as in the last independent poll published.

[Harry Hayfield]

The new party is called Solidarity

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5297040.stm

[afleitch]

The new party is called Solidarity

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5297040.stm

Tonight I'm going to visit the Scottish Socialist Youth forum and watch them argue like ferrets in a sack

I can't see Solidarity contest any FPTP seats, with the exception of Sheridan in Glasgow Pollock. Their vote in the list seats will be split to the extent that while I believed the SSP would be culled to 2 or 3 seats next year, collectively the socialist parties may end up with none.

The SSP has 'played' politics for years, the Greens make the parliament work (and have some of the most outstanding politicians like Harper and Harvie) so I hope the Greens mop up the 'protest' vote and bury the Trots

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most pundits in Wales are predicting a Labour/LibDem coalition of some sorts, although there's an interesting debate as to who will be First Minister; a programme to be broadcast tonight (I think. Or tomorrow. Or a few hours ago. Not sure) is predicting that the First Minister will be Carwyn Jones, while most other pundits think it'll be Morgan again.
Due to the electoral system and the likelyhood of swings in marginal fptp seats going off in all directions (although Labour are apparently convinced that the swings around Cardiff will be bad) the exact make up of the next Assembly is uncertain. No one is even sure who'll come second...

[afleitch]

(although Labour are apparently convinced that the swings around Cardiff will be bad)

Labour look like suffering the same predicted fate in Edinburgh. In fact the north of Scotland looks like being worse, Dundee West, Aberdeen Central and the Western Isles look like falling outing Labour from north of the Forth Valley (though I dont expect any Conservative seats north of there either; they could chuck money into Perth but I don't think it's worth it; the Conservatives are suprisingly better placed to fare better in the south of Scotland) What happens in Edinburgh depends on what happens with the Lib Dems, who in terms of the vote were a whisker behind Labour in 2005. With favourite Susan Deacon stepping down in Edinburgh East the SNP'S more prominent Kenny MacAskill looks like being a strong contender

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An early seat-by-seat prediction...

Clwyd South: Lab hold
Wrexham: Lab gain from FW
Alyn & Deeside: Lab hold
Delyn: Lab hold
Clwyd West: Con gain from Lab
Aberconwy: Tight three way (Lab/Nat/Con) fight here.
Arfon: Tight Lab/Nat fight here. I'll be an optimist and say Lab gain from Plaid
Ynys Môn: as utterly unpredictable (this far out anyway) as always.
Dwyfor Meirionnydd: Plaid hold
Montgomeryshire: LDem hold
Brecon & Radnorshire: LDem hold
Ceredigion: tight Nat/Lib fight here
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr: should be a Plaid hold, but I won't rule out an upset; their AM here is dire.
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire: see Aberconwy I think
Preseli Pembrokeshire: tight Lab/Con fight here.
Llanelli: Lab hold
Gower: Lab hold
Swansea East: Lab hold
Swansea West: Lab hold, half a chance of a LDem upset, but I doubt it.
Neath: Lab hold
Ogmore: Lab hold
Bridgend: Lab hold
Pontypridd: Lab hold
Rhondda: Lab hold
Cynon Valley: Lab hold
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: Lab hold
Caerphilly: Lab hold
Islwyn: Lab hold
Blaenau Gwent: er... depends how Law does in the Assembly between now and May.
Torfaen: Lab hold
Monmouth: Con hold
Newport East: Lab hold
Newport West: Lab hold
Cardiff North: Con gain from Lab
Cardiff Central: LDem hold
Cardiff West: Lab hold
Cardiff South & Penarth: Lab hold
Vale of Glamorgan: Con gain from Lab

Will have a try at the PR seats later...

---
As you can see, I'm pretty sure (as of now) that Labour will suffer some nasty swings in more middle class constituencies (and it's hard not to note that we only held Cardiff North and Vale of Glamorgan in the General Election due to the personal votes of two very good M.P's...). The swings elsewhere will be more varied; Labour's vote could well rise in North Wales for example.
And yes... I think the Tories will be leading the opposition in Cardiff Bay come May next year...

This prediction is subject to large changes whenever I feels like it

[afleitch]

http://www.sundayherald.com/57736

LibDems set to ditch Labour after election


THE Scottish Liberal Democrats are preparing to ditch Jack McConnell as First Minister by declining to enter a coalition with Labour after next year’s Holyrood election. LibDem leader Nicol Stephen wants to loosen ties with Labour by changing the party’s policy of automatically negotiating with the largest group in the Scottish parliament.

Senior strategists say Nicol does not want to share office with a party “on the way down” and would prefer to keep his options open on a three-way coalition with the SNP and Greens.

-------

If this is true, it is quite an about change for the party which has previously denied any SNP advance on constitutional grounds, butthe Lib Dems will team up with anyone in order to remain in the executive. If Labour are the largest party by a comfortable margin (probably over 5 seats) you can bet they will make moves towards them.

Also Sunday is the launch of 'Solidarity' by Tommy Sheridan. Apparently SSP activists are having a meeting in the same venue asking supporters to 'keep the faith.' The SSP is also having to leave its HQ due to financial difficulties; it could fold by the end of the year.

[Silent Hunter]

I read about Solidarity.

Do they have deposits in Holyrood elections? If they do I can say "Bang go a load of deposits".

[Silent Hunter]

Salmond's challenged Blair to a debate:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5307994.stm

Might be quite fun if he agreed. Probably won't happen though.

[afleitch]

Salmond's challenged Blair to a debate:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5307994.stm

Might be quite fun if he agreed. Probably won't happen though.

I'd prefer him to debate McConnell. That would be so one sided it would be car crash television.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Machine politicians generally don't make very good debators

[afleitch]

Look who's back!

Its 'see-saw' System 3, back after a 2 and a half year absence

Constituency vote from the past 3 months

Labour 36
SNP 28
Lib Dem 17
Tories 12
SSP 7
Green 7

For the SSP to get 7% of the vote, up on 2003 after the Sheridan trial and splitting in two is suprising, likewise with the Greens. What's even more suprising is that neither party will be putting up candidates, as far as we are aware, in constituencies. System 3 pollsters should have been aware of this, as 14% have declared support for parties that won't run. Labour's lead of 8 over the SNP goes against the past 3 polls. It is probable that the SNP still maintain a lead or at the very least are neck and neck.

They had an appalling track record in the past; and this looks like it wont change soon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yay, System 3 is back!

Labour figure seems too high (about right for Westminster voting intentions, but too high for Holyrood) but the SNP figure is in line with previous polls.

[afleitch]

Yay, System 3 is back!

Labour figure seems too high (about right for Westminster voting intentions, but too high for Holyrood) but the SNP figure is in line with previous polls.

As are the Green and SSP scores for a FPTP election. I find it odd that that question was asked, it should be phased out. The Greens committed themselves to only running in the regions before the last election and the SSP has said the same in the past year (probably due to financial realities more than anything else)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently the poll shows a big gap between the Labour constituency vote and Labour list vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Western Mail is claiming that Labour and the LibDems have worked out a coalition deal for after the elections.
As it's in the Western Mail, don't take it with a pinch of salt. Take it with a salt mine
Predictably both Labour and the LibDems have denied it (with Morgan calling the rumour "twaddle") and equally both Plaid and the Tories are howling in (mock?) fury over the rumour. Regardless of how accurate it is (and do note that the Western Mail's track record on this sort of thing is... poor...), another Labour/LibDem coalition is quite likely if Labour can't win back their majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Found At Another Place:

Notional results for 2003 Scottish local elections on new STV boundaries

[Harry Hayfield]

Just one small little problem, those figures aren't right. Mine are (as I got them direct from Professor Curtice at Strathclyde University)
Name   Con   Lab   Lib Dem   SNP   Ind   BNP   Green   SSP   UKIP   Others
Aberdeen   4   14   17   8                  
Aberdeenshire   14      23   23   8               
Angus   2   5   3   14   5               
Argyll and Bute   3      5   6   21               
Clackmannanshire   1   8      8   1               
Comhairlie nan Eilean Siar (Western Isles)      3      3   25               
Dumfries and Galloway   13   12   5   8   9               
Dundee   3   12   2   11   1               
East Ayrshire   2   17      13                  
East Dunbartonshire   4   8   9   3                  
East Lothian   4   11   2   6                  
East Renfrewshire   5   9   4   1   1               
Edinburgh   11   18   18   11                  
Falkirk   2   14      11   5               
Fife   7   31   19   17   4               
Glasgow   2   47   2   21            7      
Highland      6   8   5   61               
Inverclyde   1   7   8   4                  
Midlothian      9   4   5                  
Moray   1   4      7   14               
North Ayrshire   3   17      10                  
North Lanarkshire      44      24   2               
Orkney Islands               21               
Perth and Kinross   11   3   10   16   1               
Renfrewshire   2   18   3   16            1      
Scottish Borders   12      9   3   10               
Shetland Islands         6      16               
South Ayrshire   12   12      6                  
South Lanarkshire   5   37   2   21   2               
Stirling   4   10   2   6                  
West Dunbartonshire      13      7   1         1      
West Lothian   1   16   1   14                  

Ah, we have a problem with formatting. I've got them in an Excel spreadsheet you see and clearly need some help sorting them out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New YouGov/Sunday Times poll:

Constituency: Lab 30%, SNP 29%, LDem 18%, Con 14%
List: SNP 29%, Lab 27%, LDem 15%, Con 14%

Basically in line with most others done recently... although not really with system 3...

The poll also shows that support for Independence is about 44% at the moment (which enables the Sunday Times to run with the usual sensationalist rubbish story).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An interesting thing about the poll (and most others done) ; the SNP are around where they were in 1999, while Labour seems to have dropped by a similer amount to the drop between 1999 and 2003 (again).

Not suprising, not suprising at all, but worth pointing out anyway.

[afleitch]

The poll also shows that support for Independence is about 44% at the moment (which enables the Sunday Times to run with the usual sensationalist rubbish story).

It is however in line with the sparse previous polls in the past year with regards independence. It is not political suicide to advocate independence and this has partly been the reason for the SNP's recent relentless foucs on economics (and it is gaining the support of business leaders). I'd be prepared to vote for it given the choice if we follow a low tax model.