Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

The best thing I can come up with is Zelensky and his aids have written off eastern Ukraine, written off Crimea (I don't know if they've written off Kiev or not, we may see the capital move west), they know they'll lose a war, but they won't give up anything diplomatically to serve the broader longer-term purpose of NATO membership/EU membership for whatever Ukrainian remnant exists, and after the war use the victim card to say "NATO and Europe did not help us to the degree necessary and thousands of Ukrainians died because of your inaction" to shame their way into these alliances. Is that playing games with the lives of your citizens? Yes. I'm fully expecting Zelensky to blame the U.S. if war occurs and Ukraine loses, blaming America for all your country's problems is a global sport after all and plays well at home.

Basically:

• they think that Putin blinks
• even if Putin doesn't blink, whatever he'll do is better than caving and/or implementing Minsk or what not.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Macron Proposed Putin-Biden Summit, Accepted by Both Sides: AFP

Apparently, Biden asked Macron to?

https://twitter.com/LeSommierRgis/status/1495741233544708098


https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-asked-macron-make-offer-putin-biden-summit-putin-french-official-2022-02-21/
Biden asked Macron to make offer of Putin-Biden summit to Putin -French official

PARIS, Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden had asked French President Emmanuel Macron to make the offer of a summit between Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin to Putin, said an official from the French Presidency.

"We're slowly changing the course of things. We're creating a diplomatic perspective the Kremlin accepts," said the French presidential adviser.

"He is a facilitator," added the French presidential adviser, commenting on Macron's role.

Or is it a new development?

[StateBoiler]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

The best thing I can come up with is Zelensky and his aids have written off eastern Ukraine, written off Crimea (I don't know if they've written off Kiev or not, we may see the capital move west), they know they'll lose a war, but they won't give up anything diplomatically to serve the broader longer-term purpose of NATO membership/EU membership for whatever Ukrainian remnant exists, and after the war use the victim card to say "NATO and Europe did not help us to the degree necessary and thousands of Ukrainians died because of your inaction" to shame their way into these alliances. Is that playing games with the lives of your citizens? Yes. I'm fully expecting Zelensky to blame the U.S. if war occurs and Ukraine loses, blaming America for all your country's problems is a global sport after all and plays well at home.

Basically:

• they think that Putin blinks
• even if Putin doesn't blink, whatever he'll do is better than caving and/or implementing Minsk or what not.

They think that Putin blinks. They're the smaller less powerful country here. Quite the gamble.

Even if Putin doesn't blink... They could be looking at losing half their country pretty much permanently.

I feel Zelensky is looking for Ukraine to lose a war and just have someone else to blame for it. This is an absolutely stupid strategy, but how else can you explain NOT MOBILIZING YOUR MILITARY AND RESERVES?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Wtf? WH doubles down, if not triples...

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1495738013963649029

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/GMA/status/1495734868654837761
https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1495591015553679361

The letter says the Russian military’s targets would include Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and “vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons.”

The letter alleges that Moscow’s post-invasion planning would involve torture, forced disappearances and “widespread human suffering.” It does not describe the nature of the intelligence that undergirds its assessment.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not good

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1495742811748065285

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident

[rc18]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

What preparations do you want the the Ukrainian military to make? It is completely outclassed by Russia, there really isn't much in the way of effective defence the Ukrainians could muster against Russian air superiority or their copious amounts of short range ballistic missiles and artillery.

I mean you asked about why they aren't fully mobilizing their military. All that does is advertise juicy targets for Russian shock and awe bombardment. They might as well paint massive "bomb me" signs.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495755190863020036

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-banks-imported-5-billion-foreign-cash-december-acra-estimates-2022-02-21/
Russian banks imported $5 billion in foreign cash in December -ACRA estimates

MOSCOW, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Russian ratings agency ACRA estimates that the country's banks imported $5 billion worth of banknotes in foreign currencies in December, up from $2.65 billion a year before, in a pre-emptive step in case of sanctions creating increased demand.

👀

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin recognize Donbass independent today.


Says again (he always talks about it) that Kiev doesn't want to implement Minsk. Mentions today's DNR/LNR recognition request.

It's now send live at least on Russian main TV channel.
Putin's speech (LIVE) with translation:

[StateBoiler]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

What preparations do you want the the Ukrainian military to make? It is completely outclassed by Russia, there really isn't much in the way of effective defence the Ukrainians could muster against Russian air superiority or their copious amounts of short range ballistic missiles and artillery.

Is there any analysis out there expecting a meaningful defense by the Ukrainian military?

You mean like concrete bunkers or at least sandbag barriers? Boarded up windows? Explosive load buildings ready to collapse onto an advancing column? Explosive laden bridges to block an advance? Battalion and company fall back positions? Machine gun nests? An HQ?

None exists.

I mean you asked about why they aren't fully mobilizing their military. All that does is advertise juicy targets for Russian shock and awe bombardment. They might as well paint massive "bomb me" signs.

What are their defensive measures for advancing ground forces?

Zelensky is talking a big game, and it's not being matched by anything on the ground reality at all. He is providing nothing that would cause the Russian military pause and generate significant resistance that would force the Russians to bleed, meaning the Russians can just walk in and declare victory. "Forcing the Russians to bleed if they choose to invade" was the only reason a lot of countries gave Ukraine all this military equipment aid to start with. The Ukrainian defensive structure does struggle with I think I read there were 9 possible invasion routes Russia could choose, and the Ukrainians can't cover all 9. But militarily it appears they're not preparing to the point of in the end it might be that Georgia in 2008 put up a better fight.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/GMA/status/1495734868654837761

Wow, Michael Strahan. They really brought out the top-notch news journalist deserving of that interview.

(For our foreign readers, he's a former player in the NFL.)

[rc18]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

What preparations do you want the the Ukrainian military to make? It is completely outclassed by Russia, there really isn't much in the way of effective defence the Ukrainians could muster against Russian air superiority or their copious amounts of short range ballistic missiles and artillery.

Is there any analysis out there expecting a meaningful defense by the Ukrainian military?

You mean like concrete bunkers or at least sandbag barriers? Boarded up windows? Explosive load buildings ready to collapse onto an advancing column? Explosive laden bridges to block an advance? Battalion and company fall back positions? Machine gun nests? An HQ?

None exists.

I mean you asked about why they aren't fully mobilizing their military. All that does is advertise juicy targets for Russian shock and awe bombardment. They might as well paint massive "bomb me" signs.

What are their defensive measures for advancing ground forces?

Zelensky is talking a big game, and it's not being matched by anything on the ground reality at all. He is providing nothing that would cause the Russian military pause and generate significant resistance that would force the Russians to bleed, meaning the Russians can just walk in and declare victory. "Forcing the Russians to bleed if they choose to invade" was the only reason a lot of countries gave Ukraine all this military equipment aid to start with. The Ukrainian defensive structure does struggle with I think I read there were 9 possible invasion routes Russia could choose, and the Ukrainians can't cover all 9. But militarily it appears they're not preparing to the point of in the end it might be that Georgia in 2008 put up a better fight.

Where are you getting this idea that Russia's first act would be to engage in a general ground invasion? That isn't how they work. They have vast batteries of SRBMs that are capable of striking Kiev without ever setting foot on Ukrainian territory. Eastern Ukraine would be levelled before any serious movement of armour. It isn't like the Russians are going to engage in massed tank battles; their greatest advantage is the ability to bomb opponents back into the stone age, they would obliterate Ukrainian positions from well beyond the horizon.

Eastern Ukraine is flat, Afghanistan this is not. There is nowhere to hide, a bunker is just an elaborate "bomb me" sign. Sandbags are meaningless. The Russians can quickly assemble pontoon bridges. I don't expect the Russians to leave enough buildings left standing for the Ukrainians to blow up (nor for that matter are the Russians stupid enough to push a tank column through the streets of a bombed-out city anyway). Machine gun nests? What is the point in that when the Russians have such a massive advantage in artillery? The machine guns will never see who is shooting at them.

"Forcing the Russians to bleed if they choose to invade" was the only reason a lot of countries gave Ukraine all this military equipment aid to start with.

This was just a fig leaf. They know very well that by the time this type of guerrilla warfare campaign would come into its own Ukraine would have long become a smouldering ruin anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Artillery (however defined) has been the most prestigious and tactically important element in the Russian military since the 18th century and there's a tendency to shape strategy and tactics around this fact wherever possible.

[jaichind]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin recognize Donbass independent today.

Russian equities down 15% on this news

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin recognize Donbass independent today.

Russian equities down 15% on this news

Yeah. And Putin hasn't officially done it yet 🙉🙈🙊.

Though, probably 95% he will. Unless Macron calls him right now...

[jaichind]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin recognize Donbass independent today.

Russian equities down 15% on this news

Yeah. And Putin hasn't officially done it yet 🙉🙈🙊.

Though, probably 95% he will. Unless Macron calls him right now...

I think this is a bad idea.  Putin has to explain to the Russians, potential allies, and other powers what is different today versus say a year ago to justify this.  He is also throwing about any leverage over Ukraine.

[jaichind]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

The best thing I can come up with is Zelensky and his aids have written off eastern Ukraine, written off Crimea (I don't know if they've written off Kiev or not, we may see the capital move west), they know they'll lose a war, but they won't give up anything diplomatically to serve the broader longer-term purpose of NATO membership/EU membership for whatever Ukrainian remnant exists, and after the war use the victim card to say "NATO and Europe did not help us to the degree necessary and thousands of Ukrainians died because of your inaction" to shame their way into these alliances. Is that playing games with the lives of your citizens? Yes. I'm fully expecting Zelensky to blame the U.S. if war occurs and Ukraine loses, blaming America for all your country's problems is a global sport after all and plays well at home.

If Zelensky really believes that a massive Russian invasion is coming he should pull his troops back and have units in place to cut off roads and bridges in Eastern Ukraine as soon as Russian troops move in.    He should also put Eastern Ukraine under quarantine and prohibit civilian access to key communications nodes so the Russians are denied intelligence on what the Ukrainian forces are up to in Eastern Ukraine.

BTW, if the Russians were going to attack they will do the same (quarantine and prohibit civilian access to key communications nodes( on their side of the border.  The fact that neither side is doing this indicates to me both sides do not expect a major conflict to break out.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin recognize Donbass independent today.

Russian equities down 15% on this news

Yeah. And Putin hasn't officially done it yet 🙉🙈🙊.

Though, probably 95% he will. Unless Macron calls him right now...

Or not. Some "advisers" has said, it might be used as ultimatum and give Biden 2-3 days.


Some guy got so stressed, he said, he wants to take DNR/LNR into Russia Federation  Putin corrected him, that nobody is talking about that now.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

"The decision will be made today" Putin ends national security council meeting with...

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1495775697121517570

[StateBoiler]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

The best thing I can come up with is Zelensky and his aids have written off eastern Ukraine, written off Crimea (I don't know if they've written off Kiev or not, we may see the capital move west), they know they'll lose a war, but they won't give up anything diplomatically to serve the broader longer-term purpose of NATO membership/EU membership for whatever Ukrainian remnant exists, and after the war use the victim card to say "NATO and Europe did not help us to the degree necessary and thousands of Ukrainians died because of your inaction" to shame their way into these alliances. Is that playing games with the lives of your citizens? Yes. I'm fully expecting Zelensky to blame the U.S. if war occurs and Ukraine loses, blaming America for all your country's problems is a global sport after all and plays well at home.

If Zelensky really believes that a massive Russian invasion is coming he should pull his troops back and have units in place to cut off roads and bridges in Eastern Ukraine as soon as Russian troops move in.

Western military observers in forums like this one are saying the Ukrainian military has done nothing. I'm pretty certain if that gets out to us the Russians know it too.

He should also put Eastern Ukraine under quarantine and prohibit civilian access to key communications nodes so the Russians are denied intelligence on what the Ukrainian forces are up to in Eastern Ukraine.

All the OSINT out there that is telling us about the buildup of Russian forces in Donbass and Belarus, they've moved within so many kilometers of the Ukrainian border, Russian combat engineers have built land bridges across rivers, etc., that OSINT can be done to Ukrainian forces too showing where they are moving to or lack therof as well, and the Russians have their own reconaissance satellites.

[StateBoiler]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin recognize Donbass independent today.

Russian equities down 15% on this news

Yeah. And Putin hasn't officially done it yet 🙉🙈🙊.

Though, probably 95% he will. Unless Macron calls him right now...

Hey, if you're an investor and have balls of steel don't believe a war is going to happen, buy the dip.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1495775697121517570

Is this even Putin? Some time ago I noticed that he wears his watch on the right arm.

[StateBoiler]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

What preparations do you want the the Ukrainian military to make? It is completely outclassed by Russia, there really isn't much in the way of effective defence the Ukrainians could muster against Russian air superiority or their copious amounts of short range ballistic missiles and artillery.

Is there any analysis out there expecting a meaningful defense by the Ukrainian military?

You mean like concrete bunkers or at least sandbag barriers? Boarded up windows? Explosive load buildings ready to collapse onto an advancing column? Explosive laden bridges to block an advance? Battalion and company fall back positions? Machine gun nests? An HQ?

None exists.

I mean you asked about why they aren't fully mobilizing their military. All that does is advertise juicy targets for Russian shock and awe bombardment. They might as well paint massive "bomb me" signs.

What are their defensive measures for advancing ground forces?

Zelensky is talking a big game, and it's not being matched by anything on the ground reality at all. He is providing nothing that would cause the Russian military pause and generate significant resistance that would force the Russians to bleed, meaning the Russians can just walk in and declare victory. "Forcing the Russians to bleed if they choose to invade" was the only reason a lot of countries gave Ukraine all this military equipment aid to start with. The Ukrainian defensive structure does struggle with I think I read there were 9 possible invasion routes Russia could choose, and the Ukrainians can't cover all 9. But militarily it appears they're not preparing to the point of in the end it might be that Georgia in 2008 put up a better fight.

Where are you getting this idea that Russia's first act would be to engage in a general ground invasion? That isn't how they work. They have vast batteries of SRBMs that are capable of striking Kiev without ever setting foot on Ukrainian territory. Eastern Ukraine would be levelled before any serious movement of armour. It isn't like the Russians are going to engage in massed tank battles; their greatest advantage is the ability to bomb opponents back into the stone age, they would obliterate Ukrainian positions from well beyond the horizon.

Find me my post I said we're engaging in massive tank battles? Go back a month or so I said the Ukrainians can't do anything to Russia's Black Sea ships, so the smart thing to do for the Russians would be the ships and their air force blow up armor and equipment before you even send in ground forces. But if they never send in ground forces, they don't change reality on the ground as far as government of control. If Russia do nothing but shoot a bunch of missiles they won't accomplish whatever their end goal is, Zelensky's in power, Ukraine's more anti-Russian and furious, and the West will do their sanctions. Whatever the end goal is (territory, darker black line border for Donbass, regime change), they have to actually invade and occupy. What is Ukraine's response to all these ground forces? Are they planning on allowing the Russians to march straight into Kiev without resistance and put Zelensky in handcuffs as it currently looks?

[rc18]

Is this even Putin? Some time ago I noticed that he wears his watch on the right arm.

No, that is Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu's arm.

It's interesting because if this is recorded it means Putin wanted stuff like Naryshkin's comment and his response to be broadcast.