LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Calthrina950]

It would be something if Edwards managed to garner a majority tonight. I pray that he will not become a victim of the same polarization that denied Democrats a shot at victory in Oklahoma, Tennessee, Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota last year. Edwards is an excellent fit for his state, and in a depolarized environment, he would be on his way to collecting more than 70% of the vote and winning every parish.

[Calthrina950]

I have this race as Lean D

Democrats need to appeal to rural voters.

Democrats can chew gum and walk at the same time.

If Democrats are a big tent party, prove it. Show up in rural Louisiana tomorrow.

Jobs, healthcare, policing reform.

That's all Democrats need to talk about.

THEY.DON'T.CARE. All they care about is "muh caravan, muh abortion, muh 2nd amendment".

It also seems that the impeachment thing is hurting the Democrats there.

No. The fact that it’s Louisiana is hurting the Dems here

It could be both. Edwards already had very difficult odds, considering the state's partisan lean, but impeachment has galvanized Trump's supporters, which only makes things more difficult for him.

[Calthrina950]

I still think Edwards is favored in the runoff, but it's going to be a desperately close race. Polarization is dragging him down considerably, and could very well be his undoing. At this point, I'm thinking the chances of a Republican sweep of all three gubernatorial races this year are at 50-50. Republicans will take Kentucky and Mississippi with ease, and their chances in Louisiana are even. I view this race now as a Tossup.

[Calthrina950]

A bunch of East Baton Rough votes came in ... Did not help Edwards as much as I thought it would

Mostly the GOP side of the city. Note whats still out, and how it relates to the urban core, or the  more southern university precincts.

 

Would you call it JBE vs Rispone yet or can this still end tonight?

JBE north of 47% I say is certain. Probably won't crack 49%. DDHQ has called it as a runoff. Which honestly is good for him since he is beating his polling.

How strong implications does JBE north of 47% have for the runoff?

Thats for you to decide. Some will scream "R Pickup" now because Dems didn't get 50%, others will note that the  polls which gave Edwards 47% gave him a overall majority in a runoff.

He didn’t clear 50 in too many of those runoff polls against Rispone. Only had him at 48 or 49, which is a dangerous place to be for a purportedly popular incumbent Democrat  in the south.

I’m calling it Lean R.

All the majority of Louisiana's electorate cares about is the R after the politician's name. Edwards could be as popular as Baker or Hogan, and I tell you that he would still be struggling just as he is now. It's sad how fanatical so many voters have become.

[Calthrina950]

I say Tilt D in the runoff, but it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if Republicans run away with this.

Pity.

Luckily King Phil still waves the standard of the independent thinker up north.

Don't forget about Baker and Hogan. They sailed to victory last year, but Edwards is going to have to fight just to get a bare majority!

How can it be so close? Edwards is pro-life

Edwards is a communist, in the view of many Louisianians. All they see is the D after his name, and they care about nothing else.

[Calthrina950]

Last year it was Kavanaugh, now its impeachment. There's always an excuse. And yet in late 2017, at the peak of Trump's unpopularity, a Democrat only defeated a pedophile by 2 points in AL despite half of Republicans not showing up. Polarization is real, inelasticity is real, get the hell over it.

And in the Senate Races where Kavanaugh mattered Democrats lost. Manchin had the Courage to vote for Kavanaugh and won.

The courage? Manchin only voted for Kavanaugh to save himself electorally. Had he voted against Kavanaugh, he would have lost.

[Calthrina950]

I say Tilt D in the runoff, but it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if Republicans run away with this.

Pity.

Luckily King Phil still waves the standard of the independent thinker up north.

Don't forget about Baker and Hogan. They sailed to victory last year, but Edwards is going to have to fight just to get a bare majority!

How can it be so close? Edwards is pro-life

Edwards is a communist, in the view of many Louisianians. All they see is the D after his name, and they care about nothing else.

Democrats (primarily white) like to feel enlightened so they vote for 'Moderate FF Republicans ' like Baker/Hogan in landslides.

Republicans are increasingly more tribal, getting their news from Hannity and Levin. Manchin (who underperformed the polls) and JBE are perhaps the last two left (if JBE even wins).

I'll disagree with you here. Baker and Hogan are genuine moderates; Manchin and Edwards are genuine moderates as well. But otherwise, you are correct. Just look at Tennessee and Oklahoma last year. Bredesen would have been an excellent Senator, but instead, Tennessee voters rejected him (in spite of the fact that they had given him a landslide as Governor previously and knew who he was), and put in the vile Blackburn. And Mary Fallin almost destroyed Oklahoma, yet Edmondson lost by double digits to Kevin Stitt anyhow.

[Calthrina950]

Last year it was Kavanaugh, now its impeachment. There's always an excuse. And yet in late 2017, at the peak of Trump's unpopularity, a Democrat only defeated a pedophile by 2 points in AL despite half of Republicans not showing up. Polarization is real, inelasticity is real, get the hell over it.

And in the Senate Races where Kavanaugh mattered Democrats lost. Manchin had the Courage to vote for Kavanaugh and won.

The courage? Manchin only voted for Kavanaugh to save himself electorally. Had he voted against Kavanaugh, he would have lost.

If Trump had recorded a video message attacking Manchin and aired it in WV he would have lost. Trump did not effectively campaign for Morrisey, probably because the polls showed Manchin too far ahead and he had multiple candidates to stump for. That won't be problem for Rispone.

You're right, but if Manchin had voted against Kavanaugh, that would have given Trump even more reason to do so. I don't think it can be denied that the Kavanaugh vote played a role in bailing Manchin out. And it definitely hurt Donnelly and Heitkamp, particularly the latter, with her sexual assault victims controversy.

[Calthrina950]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

Let's be real. The only reason JBE is Governor of Louisiana is because of David Vitter. Had he faced Agnelle he would have lost.

Nobodies disagreeing with you there. Same reason why Hogan is governor of Maryland and Dems picked up Kansas. Once you win though you have a record to run on.

But why is it that Hogan won by 11% last year, in a state that is just as heavily Democratic as Louisiana is Republican, while Edwards might lose?

[Calthrina950]

just finished this map.

Red = parishes where JBE barely overperformed or even underperformed Hillary (less than Hillary or 0-4% more than Hillary)
Orange = parishes where JBE somewhat overperformed Hillary (5-9% more than Hillary
Blue = parishes where JBE overperformed Hillary by around or over what he needed to win statewide (9+% more than Hillary)

Somewhat imprecise due to haste and basing things off of incomplete results

Basically, this map shows that Edwards ran ahead of Clinton in New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and their suburbs, but behind her, or about the same as her, throughout much of rural Louisiana. Even the Bayou State is experiencing the same national trends of urban/rural polarization that have been felt throughout the country, as I predicted.

[Calthrina950]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

[Calthrina950]

just finished this map.

Red = parishes where JBE barely overperformed or even underperformed Hillary (less than Hillary or 0-4% more than Hillary)
Orange = parishes where JBE somewhat overperformed Hillary (5-9% more than Hillary
Blue = parishes where JBE overperformed Hillary by around or over what he needed to win statewide (9+% more than Hillary)

Somewhat imprecise due to haste and basing things off of incomplete results

Basically, this map shows that Edwards ran ahead of Clinton in New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and their suburbs, but behind her, or about the same as her, throughout much of rural Louisiana. Even the Bayou State is experiencing the same national trends of urban/rural polarization that have been felt throughout the country, as I predicted.

Some of those areas in the southeast where Edwards outperformed Hillary by quite a bit, are also rurals though. It seems it's proximity to New Orleans that matters. And apparently Ralph Abraham's district represents many of the areas where JBE barely overperformed or even underperformed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana%27s_5th_congressional_district

So perhaps not a uniform effect, but the same general trends can be detected. And Abraham's district includes rural territory that is now very hostile to the Democrats, and that are very Trumpian in character.

[Calthrina950]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

This. If it comes out that Rispone had an affair with a prostitute instead of paying tribute to our troops at a given point of time, I will adjust the race accordingly. Until then it’s Safe R.

And no, it’s not impeachment. JBE was polling the same even before it all. Republicans just hate all democrats no matter how conservative they are on Blue Lives Mattering or Collin kaepernick standing up for the pledge or how pro life they are

I wouldn't go so far as to call this Safe R; I think this race is a tossup. But your last paragraph is right on point. If you go over to RRH, the posters there don't consider Edwards to be any different from any other Democrat, and one particular poster from South Carolina believes that Edwards is a "fake moderate", with absolutely no basis for this, and therefore wants him defeated. It's crazy.

[Calthrina950]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

I expect Rispone to do better than Vitter but JBE is in a better starting position than he was in 2015 and did well, so I think he is the favorite in a competitive race. I don't think simply adding up the Republican vote is very predictive.

I will agree with you that Edwards has the advantage-and I've said so much before. However, the only reason why he has the advantage is because he is the incumbent. And as we saw in 2018, with the four Democratic Senators who lost and the scores of Republican Congressmen (and women) who lost, incumbency doesn't count for as much in this polarized environment. Louisiana's Republican lean and polarization by themselves could very well hand this race to Rispone, regardless of what Edwards does. Edwards can win, but it will be close, and he will have to fight every step of the way.

[Calthrina950]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

[Calthrina950]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

At this point, a Republican sweep of all three gubernatorial races is looking like a strong possibility.

[Calthrina950]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

At this point, a Republican sweep of all three gubernatorial races is looking like a strong possibility.

It is definitely a strong possibility. At this point, Louisiana is the only race I can see Democrats winning, and obviously it's looking worse for Democrats now than it did before. KY has always been Safe R (I momentarily rated it Likely R, but it's clear that I shouldn't have changed it,) and I think it's safe to call MS Safe R as well, though I could see Hood coming somewhat close.

Here's an interesting question: When's the last time a governor with very strongly positive approval ratings lost re-election?

Didn't Bob Ehrlich lose in Maryland in 2006 with solid approval ratings? That's ironic, given Hogan's victory in the midst of the Democratic wave last year.

[Calthrina950]

Lol John Milkovich lost and he’s probably he lost conservative legislator in the country. So much for “Dems need to stop stressing social issues and they can win”

The Democratic losses in Louisiana's legislature are another indicator of the uphill struggle Edwards now faces. Republicans just wiped out virtually all of the remaining rural Blue Dog holdouts. I expect them to do the same in Mississippi next month.

[Calthrina950]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

Democrats need to do a 1992 strategy of talking simply health care and jobs to the rural communities. Period.

That won't make any difference. "We ain't voting for no Communists no more." That's what rural voters in Kentucky, Louisiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Oklahoma, etc. are saying now.

[Calthrina950]

Edwards will most likely win outright and avoid a runoff.

This aged like bad milk.

I also thought he’d win outright ...

Just like I thought McCready would win by 2%.

It seems the rural areas in the US are trending even more Republican than I thought. 2 weeks ago, many rural areas in the Austrian parliamentary elections already had strong trends to the right despite rightwing scandal, but the US is even worse. I might have to create more R-leaning predictions in the future.

The same urban-rural divide has infected the entire Western World. And it will only get worse in time. McCready lost because of the rural areas; now it looks like they may doom Edwards.

[Calthrina950]

If Edwards wins this year, I wouldn't be surprised if it is decades before a Democrat prevails here again.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1184578806155284482?s=20

If Edwards wins reelection, this is what will save him.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1184578806155284482?s=20

If When Edwards wins reelection, this is what will save him.

You seem to be supremely confident about his chances. Given the ongoing trends of polarization, we cannot be certain about the outcome of this race. Edwards is favored, but it is not an automatic win for him.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1184578806155284482?s=20

If When Edwards wins reelection, this is what will save him.

You seem to be supremely confident about his chances. Given the ongoing trends of polarization, we cannot be certain about the outcome of this race. Edwards is favored, but it is not an automatic win for him.

Edwards:  51.7%
Rispone:  48.3%

That's my current prediction for how the runoff shapes up.  A tighter-than-expected win for Edwards, but still quite comfortable given the two-way nature of the race.  Rispone has a lot of work to do consolidating Abraham's supporters, and Edwards performed better this year than he did in the first round of 2015. 

This is certainly true, but Abraham's endorsement and the inevitable Trump rally will bolster Rispone. Again, I will agree that Edwards is favored, and his win would prevent 2019 from being a Democratic lockout at the gubernatorial level, as Bevin and Reeves are virtually guaranteed to win at this point.

[Calthrina950]

What is funny is that it is fairly likely that Jon Bel Edwards wins by the same margin as Blanco did in the 2003 run off but with a map nearly inversed. haha



Edwards will have to carry most of the parishes around New Orleans that voted to Jindal.

If he is losing the St Charles Parish by more than 1 or 2% in early returns it is probably over.

I wonder why la Salle's voted for blanco

Jindal's race, probably. LaSalle Parish, as you know, is Louisiana's most Republican parish, and it's most racist one.