LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[I Can Now Die Happy]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183219098911682561 Where did he get 66% from?

Either he is just making it up to set expectations well (which is smart) or he has better polls than we do (which is also smart).

Thanks for helping us in Louisiana, Mr. President. Proud to have a fellow boy from Queens repping America and the Republican Party. Please help Rispone unseat JBE, as no one with the D next to their name deserves to hold elected office, even so-called 'conservative' Democrats.

After all, many many dangerous leftists have advanced their political careers working for 'conservative' Democrats. Who knows what dangerous staffer/employee/subordinate JBE has that can later advance to higher office thanks to JBE occupying the governor's mansion?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

Let's be real. The only reason JBE is Governor of Louisiana is because of David Vitter. Had he faced Agnelle he would have lost.

Nobodies disagreeing with you there. Same reason why Hogan is governor of Maryland and Dems picked up Kansas. Once you win though you have a record to run on.

But why is it that Hogan won by 11% last year, in a state that is just as heavily Democratic as Louisiana is Republican, while Edwards might lose?

Because despite popular belief, the Republican base is far more partisan and inflexible than the Democratic base.

This is why I always laugh at "BLIMPF RLY CULD LOSE BY DOUBLE DIGITS!!!" hot takes.

I could see Trump lose something like 54-44. He wouldn’t be losing Ohio or Iowa based on that though, that I can tell you lol

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1183219098911682561 Where did he get 66% from?

Either he is just making it up to set expectations well (which is smart) or he has better polls than we do (which is also smart).

Thanks for helping us in Louisiana, Mr. President. Proud to have a fellow boy from Queens repping America and the Republican Party. Please help Rispone unseat JBE, as no one with the D next to their name deserves to hold elected office, even so-called 'conservative' Democrats.

After all, many many dangerous leftists have advanced their political careers working for 'conservative' Democrats. Who knows what dangerous staffer/employee/subordinate JBE has that can later advance to higher office thanks to JBE occupying the governor's mansion?

... or he typed a 6 instead of a 5?

[Pericles]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

I expect Rispone to do better than Vitter but JBE is in a better starting position than he was in 2015 and did well, so I think he is the favorite in a competitive race. I don't think simply adding up the Republican vote is very predictive.

[Calthrina950]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

This. If it comes out that Rispone had an affair with a prostitute instead of paying tribute to our troops at a given point of time, I will adjust the race accordingly. Until then it’s Safe R.

And no, it’s not impeachment. JBE was polling the same even before it all. Republicans just hate all democrats no matter how conservative they are on Blue Lives Mattering or Collin kaepernick standing up for the pledge or how pro life they are

I wouldn't go so far as to call this Safe R; I think this race is a tossup. But your last paragraph is right on point. If you go over to RRH, the posters there don't consider Edwards to be any different from any other Democrat, and one particular poster from South Carolina believes that Edwards is a "fake moderate", with absolutely no basis for this, and therefore wants him defeated. It's crazy.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

This. If it comes out that Rispone had an affair with a prostitute instead of paying tribute to our troops at a given point of time, I will adjust the race accordingly. Until then it’s Safe R.

And no, it’s not impeachment. JBE was polling the same even before it all. Republicans just hate all democrats no matter how conservative they are on Blue Lives Mattering or Collin kaepernick standing up for the pledge or how pro life they are

I don't care if it seems on the surface that a Democrat agrees with most of what I believe or *all* of what I believe for that matter. If they have the (D) next to their name, I'm voting against them, unless of course I'm participating in a primary in a deep blue area, in which case I'd vote for the most far-left extreme Democrat in order to damage their reputation in the eyes of the sane (e.g. I'd vote AOC over Crowley, Cynthia Nixon over Cuomo, Tiffany Caban over Melinda Katz; possibly Warren over Biden).

But I'd vote R over D practically all the time. Even Roy Moore over Doug Jones ...EVEN IF I BELIEVED THE ACCUSATIONS AGAINST Moore, because a Democrat with political power would do far more damage than whatever Moore has done.

[Calthrina950]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

I expect Rispone to do better than Vitter but JBE is in a better starting position than he was in 2015 and did well, so I think he is the favorite in a competitive race. I don't think simply adding up the Republican vote is very predictive.

I will agree with you that Edwards has the advantage-and I've said so much before. However, the only reason why he has the advantage is because he is the incumbent. And as we saw in 2018, with the four Democratic Senators who lost and the scores of Republican Congressmen (and women) who lost, incumbency doesn't count for as much in this polarized environment. Louisiana's Republican lean and polarization by themselves could very well hand this race to Rispone, regardless of what Edwards does. Edwards can win, but it will be close, and he will have to fight every step of the way.

[Matty]

JBE will end the night at around 46.3%


Pretty mediocre

[IceSpear]

The good news for JBE is that the combined Dem vote share will be over 48% and Dems have historically done better in Louisiana runoffs than in the jungle, but will that hold in the era of Trump rallies and impeachment inquiries? It might, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Mr. Smith]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

I expect Rispone to do better than Vitter but JBE is in a better starting position than he was in 2015 and did well, so I think he is the favorite in a competitive race. I don't think simply adding up the Republican vote is very predictive.

You don't have to, you can subtract a bit and Rispone still wins.

It just takes one, precisely placed rally, just before run-off day...and the base'll turn out in droves.


Also, where're the IndyRep and Bagel takes?

[TWTown]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1183218241939955712?s=20

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WNN PROJECTION:

CA NO. 2 (ACT 445 - HB 62) -- Amend Education Excellence Fund
 
3905 of 3934 precincts reporting - 99%
absentee reporting - 62 of 64 parishes   Votes
592,023   YES  51%
579,428   NO  49%
Total: 1,171,451

That wraps up tonight. Congratulations Governor Rispone.

[Oryxslayer]

JBE will end the night at around 46.3%


Pretty mediocre

He's at 46.6 and most of what is left is in the big dem three or rural JBE counties. So.... how? He's going to hit 47% based on those.

[Cinemark]

JBE will end the night at around 46.3%


Pretty mediocre

Probably at 47% actually, right where polls had him.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

[Calthrina950]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

[Xing]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

If it were up to me, Democrats would be spending 90% of their money in the suburbs of Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, but instead we got fools giving $10 million to Amy McGrath and thinking we can beat Linday Gayham

[Calthrina950]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

At this point, a Republican sweep of all three gubernatorial races is looking like a strong possibility.

[IceSpear]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

If it were up to me, Democrats would be spending 90% of their money in the suburbs of Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, but instead we got fools giving $10 million to Amy McGrath and thinking we can beat Linday Gayham

mrw Tillis and the GOP nominee in GA win by <1 point and McGrath loses by 20:

[Xing]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

At this point, a Republican sweep of all three gubernatorial races is looking like a strong possibility.

It is definitely a strong possibility. At this point, Louisiana is the only race I can see Democrats winning, and obviously it's looking worse for Democrats now than it did before. KY has always been Safe R (I momentarily rated it Likely R, but it's clear that I shouldn't have changed it,) and I think it's safe to call MS Safe R as well, though I could see Hood coming somewhat close.

Here's an interesting question: When's the last time a governor with very strongly positive approval ratings lost re-election?

[Calthrina950]

Edwards probably ends the night at 47%. I don't think he can be totally counted out, but clearly the "Democrats would win if they were only more 'moderate'" talking point took another big hit tonight. I'd like to see some Edwards/Rispone polls, so I'll leave this as a Toss-Up for now, but this night definitely didn't go the way Edwards planned.

At this point, a Republican sweep of all three gubernatorial races is looking like a strong possibility.

It is definitely a strong possibility. At this point, Louisiana is the only race I can see Democrats winning, and obviously it's looking worse for Democrats now than it did before. KY has always been Safe R (I momentarily rated it Likely R, but it's clear that I shouldn't have changed it,) and I think it's safe to call MS Safe R as well, though I could see Hood coming somewhat close.

Here's an interesting question: When's the last time a governor with very strongly positive approval ratings lost re-election?

Didn't Bob Ehrlich lose in Maryland in 2006 with solid approval ratings? That's ironic, given Hogan's victory in the midst of the Democratic wave last year.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As predicted, some trend deniers have gone conspicuously silent as the night wore on

At this point, Democrats can take a large red pen and mark off all the rural counties that voted (or will vote) for Trump and Republicans in 2016, 2018, and this year. And declare those counties terra incognita, or the unknown land. Write them off completely. They are never going to win those voters over. Democrats ought to apply a laser focus to the urban areas and suburbs. Many of the statewide results last year showed that Democrats do not need the rurals to win. Case in point-Virginia.

If it were up to me, Democrats would be spending 90% of their money in the suburbs of Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, but instead we got fools giving $10 million to Amy McGrath and thinking we can beat Linday Gayham

mrw Tillis and the GOP nominee in GA win by <1 point and McGrath loses by 20:

Only 20? That’s way too generous

[McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero]

I have more confidence in a Rispone victory now.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting results ...

Looks like the Democratic vote will end up at 48% after all the missing precincts are in.

That’s up from 42% in 2015, when he ended up winning the runoff with 56%.

JBE needs to convince ca. 4-6% of those who voted R today to vote for him in the runoff.