Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Storr]

If only we were all as happy as this vote counter:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-57022587

[Oryxslayer]

A lot of the discussion right now is that Boris Johnson has to listen to the Scottish people, and opposing a referendum would be anti-Democratic. The political incentives though for Boris are to listen to the people who elected him, and Scotland is just a small part of the greater United Kingdom, and the Tories believe/understand nationalism and resentment politics are what got them into their current political position. The incentives for both leaders are to follow their electorates and give no ground whatsoever, even if the legalese isn't in their favor. Both don't want a direct confrontation, but when presented with the alternative of political defeat, escalation is less damaging. Which is why I have feared for Scotland ever since 2019.

[afleitch]

A lot of the discussion right now is that Boris Johnson has to listen to the Scottish people, and opposing a referendum would be anti-Democratic. The political incentives though for Boris are to listen to the people who elected him, and Scotland is just a small part of the greater United Kingdom, and the Tories believe/understand nationalism and resentment politics are what got them into their current political position. The incentives for both leaders are to follow their electorates and give no ground whatsoever, even if the legalese isn't in their favor. Both don't want a direct confrontation, but when presented with the alternative of political defeat, escalation is less damaging. Which is why I have feared for Scotland ever since 2019.

Boris Johnson, unlike his predecessors has legitimate disdain for Scotland, Northern Ireland and probably struggles to remember Wales exists.

[Geoffrey Howe]

A lot of the discussion right now is that Boris Johnson has to listen to the Scottish people, and opposing a referendum would be anti-Democratic. The political incentives though for Boris are to listen to the people who elected him, and Scotland is just a small part of the greater United Kingdom, and the Tories believe/understand nationalism and resentment politics are what got them into their current political position. The incentives for both leaders are to follow their electorates and give no ground whatsoever, even if the legalese isn't in their favor. Both don't want a direct confrontation, but when presented with the alternative of political defeat, escalation is less damaging. Which is why I have feared for Scotland ever since 2019.

Boris Johnson, unlike his predecessors has legitimate disdain for Scotland, Northern Ireland and probably struggles to remember Wales exists.

I'm not sure he has disdain for Scotland as such, but he does have disdain for separatism (which is slightly ironic). Clearly he doesn't know how to handle the situation well, and as a unionist south of the border, I'm not confident with him as PM for this sort of thing.

[parochial boy]

Eh so yeah, the thing I don’t really get is, given how much English « Unionism » seems to be based around resenting Scotland. Why even be bothered about whether they become independent or not? Like what’s the point in keeping them in the Union just so that you can keep the resentful victim complex about Scottish nationalism?

Asking for a friend, like

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1391085037689376770

[afleitch]

Ouch for the Greens in Glasgow. They were hoping for a second list seat.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1391093135716110339?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1391094026649149449?s=20

Important cause Greens broke through in their traditionally most difficult part of Scotland, because of the oil industry, and Alba did not get anything.

[afleitch]

If the Lib Dems only get 4, which is probable they lose official 'party' status at Holyrood. So less Willie Rennie.

[Geoffrey Howe]

What's the likelihood Boris sets up a Scotland Towns Fund to shower money on pro-independence areas ahead of a referendum?

[IceAgeComing]

Considering that those areas are devolved matters it would likely be seen as an attack on the legitimacy of the devolved institutions: and therefore would be likely to blow up in their faces.

[Storr]

What's the likelihood Boris sets up a Scotland Towns Fund to shower money on pro-independence areas ahead of a referendum?

He'd obviously rather simply not have a referendum. But as to your question, I'm not sure. The pro-independence side would certainly accuse Boris of trying to "bribe" voters. I think it would be a last option, only used if it's looking as if the referendum is likely to pass and other messages/promises haven't swayed public opinion.

[cp]

Eh so yeah, the thing I don’t really get is, given how much English « Unionism » seems to be based around resenting Scotland. Why even be bothered about whether they become independent or not? Like what’s the point in keeping them in the Union just so that you can keep the resentful victim complex about Scottish nationalism?

Asking for a friend, like

English unionism/nationalism in this respect is equal parts warmed-over colonialism and pragmatic realism. Though they'd never admit it, a large swath of English people, from the far right to the centre left, feel quietly superior to the other constituent nations of the UK on account of England's larger size and the primacy of English language and political/cultural institutions. It's more subtle, but it's basically the same jingoistic swagger of Brexit and the CANZUK twits.

The more pragmatic (read: less condescending) argument is that Scotland - and to a lesser extent Wales and NI - provides geographic/strategic resources that England would be considerably weaker without. North Sea oil is a (declining) reason. Fishing rights, EEA prerogatives, and the ease of border control for an entire island vs a land border are others. The big one, I'd say, is the UK nuclear arsenal. Without the deep water ports in Scotland, the UK's nuclear-armed submarines would be impossible to hide, repair, or deploy from domestic waters.

[Geoffrey Howe]

What's the likelihood Boris sets up a Scotland Towns Fund to shower money on pro-independence areas ahead of a referendum?

He'd obviously rather simply not have a referendum. But as to your question, I'm not sure. The pro-independence would certainly use it accuse Boris of trying to "bribe" voters.

Which it would be. But the electorate in the North has rewarded that. He could say: look, if you stay in the UK, you will continue to receive all this money; if you leave, you won't.

I wonder what the EU would do about Scotland's deficit if they tried to join.

[beesley]

Eh so yeah, the thing I don’t really get is, given how much English « Unionism » seems to be based around resenting Scotland. Why even be bothered about whether they become independent or not? Like what’s the point in keeping them in the Union just so that you can keep the resentful victim complex about Scottish nationalism?

Asking for a friend, like

English unionism/nationalism in this respect is equal parts warmed-over colonialism and pragmatic realism. Though they'd never admit it, a large swath of English people, from the far right to the centre left, feel quietly superior to the other constituent nations of the UK on account of England's larger size and the primacy of English language and political/cultural institutions. It's more subtle, but it's basically the same jingoistic swagger of Brexit and the CANZUK twits.

The more pragmatic (read: less condescending) argument is that Scotland - and to a lesser extent Wales and NI - provides geographic/strategic resources that England would be considerably weaker without. North Sea oil is a (declining) reason. Fishing rights, EEA prerogatives, and the ease of border control for an entire island vs a land border are others. The big one, I'd say, is the UK nuclear arsenal. Without the deep water ports in Scotland, the UK's nuclear-armed submarines would be impossible to hide, repair, or deploy from domestic waters.

Happy to say as proud Englanders go I am the exception to what you described. Bring on a Federal UK.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1391101963950034945?s=19

[Storr]

Would there be much of an impact if the SNP had 64 seats instead of 63?  

"With just one of the South Scotland constituencies to declare its list result, it looks as though it may be nip and tuck between Labour and the SNP for the last of the seven list seats.

Labour might have a slightly better chance, but the SNP could yet edge it. If they were to do so then the party would end up on 64 seats rather than 63."
www.tinyurl.com/dvcfvv6t

[cp]

Eh so yeah, the thing I don’t really get is, given how much English « Unionism » seems to be based around resenting Scotland. Why even be bothered about whether they become independent or not? Like what’s the point in keeping them in the Union just so that you can keep the resentful victim complex about Scottish nationalism?

Asking for a friend, like

English unionism/nationalism in this respect is equal parts warmed-over colonialism and pragmatic realism. Though they'd never admit it, a large swath of English people, from the far right to the centre left, feel quietly superior to the other constituent nations of the UK on account of England's larger size and the primacy of English language and political/cultural institutions. It's more subtle, but it's basically the same jingoistic swagger of Brexit and the CANZUK twits.

The more pragmatic (read: less condescending) argument is that Scotland - and to a lesser extent Wales and NI - provides geographic/strategic resources that England would be considerably weaker without. North Sea oil is a (declining) reason. Fishing rights, EEA prerogatives, and the ease of border control for an entire island vs a land border are others. The big one, I'd say, is the UK nuclear arsenal. Without the deep water ports in Scotland, the UK's nuclear-armed submarines would be impossible to hide, repair, or deploy from domestic waters.

Happy to say as proud Englanders go I am the exception to what you described. Bring on a Federal UK.

Hehe, good on ya, though I think the appeal of a federalized UK is, from the perspective of a Scot, a distinction without a difference as far as English nationalism/unionism goes. Even if it's shorn of chauvinism, the English insistence on a coagulated-but-variegated federal system is precisely the attitude that a nationalist wants to be rid of.

I say this with the informal authority of being born and raised in Canada/Québec. I've seen first hand what federal systems are and aren't capable of.

[Storr]

Eh so yeah, the thing I don’t really get is, given how much English « Unionism » seems to be based around resenting Scotland. Why even be bothered about whether they become independent or not? Like what’s the point in keeping them in the Union just so that you can keep the resentful victim complex about Scottish nationalism?

Asking for a friend, like

English unionism/nationalism in this respect is equal parts warmed-over colonialism and pragmatic realism. Though they'd never admit it, a large swath of English people, from the far right to the centre left, feel quietly superior to the other constituent nations of the UK on account of England's larger size and the primacy of English language and political/cultural institutions. It's more subtle, but it's basically the same jingoistic swagger of Brexit and the CANZUK twits.

The more pragmatic (read: less condescending) argument is that Scotland - and to a lesser extent Wales and NI - provides geographic/strategic resources that England would be considerably weaker without. North Sea oil is a (declining) reason. Fishing rights, EEA prerogatives, and the ease of border control for an entire island vs a land border are others. The big one, I'd say, is the UK nuclear arsenal. Without the deep water ports in Scotland, the UK's nuclear-armed submarines would be impossible to hide, repair, or deploy from domestic waters.

Happy to say as proud Englanders go I am the exception to what you described. Bring on a Federal UK.

Hehe, good on ya, though I think the appeal of a federalized UK is, from the perspective of a Scot, a distinction without a difference as far as English nationalism/unionism goes. Even if it's shorn of chauvinism, the English insistence on a coagulated-but-variegated federal system is precisely the attitude that a nationalist wants to be rid of.

I say this with the informal authority of being born and raised in Canada/Québec. I've seen first hand what federal systems are and aren't capable of.

The biggest issue I have with a possible federalized UK is that England has 84% of the country's population. I can't think of a successful federal system with so much of the total population in one unit. An attempt a federal UK could easily go the way of the West Indies Federation. Quebec is able to (mostly, kind of?) work inside a federalized Canada because it's 23.23% of the country's population. Meanwhile, Scotland is only 8.2% of the UK's population.

[Oryxslayer]

The biggest issue I have with a possible federalized UK is that England has 84% of the country's population. I can't think of a successful federal system with so much of the total population in one unit. An attempt a federal UK could easily go the way of the West Indies Federation. Quebec is able to (mostly, kind of?) work inside a federalized Canada because it's 23.23% of the country's population. Meanwhile, Scotland is only 8.2% of the UK's population.

I think when people say federalized UK they way 'medium-sized' divisions of England into regions.

[beesley]

The biggest issue I have with a possible federalized UK is that England has 84% of the country's population. I can't think of a successful federal system with so much of the total population in one unit. An attempt a federal UK could easily go the way of the West Indies Federation. Quebec is able to (mostly, kind of?) work inside a federalized Canada because it's 23.23% of the country's population. Meanwhile, Scotland is only 8.2% of the UK's population.

I think when people say federalized UK they way 'medium-sized' divisions of England into regions.

Correct in my view. For me English nationalism is not the reason for this - it's a matter of representation and regionalism regardless. Hence why I was so happy Abolish failed to win.

Put it this way, if I was Canadian I would have more in common with a proud Newfoundlander than a proud Quebecer or Albertan, as stereotypes go.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1391109074138411009?s=19

[Keep Calm and ...]

Final seats
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1391113844752326657

[Flyersfan232]

Off topic but how close and what is needed and likely for a English assembly that is like the Scottish one