2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Tintrlvr]

Another way to look at Florida. Democrats at the same getting their best voters to the polls, but also doing much better at getting infrequent voters out.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319930380200366081?s=21

That’s not reassuring data tbh

Not reassuring that they are getting more infrequent voters out, in addition to their super voters?

Not reassuring that the GOP has so much more reliable vote out left for ED

There is like a 90% chance that Republicans are just cannibalizing their election day vote, exactly as Dems have done in the past. Y'all are ridiculous.

But that’s not what the tweet said. Reps still have a lot more 4/4 votes left compared to Dems

But they're also way behind. Like, based on already cast votes, Biden is ahead definitely more than 10 points.

[Ferguson97]

Lol imagine if Biden wins Texas and loses Florida

[Lief 🗽]

Yup Florida is over. Biden campaign needs to swallow their pride and circle the wagons in WI, PA, and MI. Hopefully nationwide protests after election day can buy enough time for those states to count before the Supreme Court steps in.

[Bootes Void]

Yup Florida is over. Biden campaign needs to swallow their pride and circle the wagons in WI, PA, and MI. Hopefully nationwide protests after election day can buy enough time for those states to count before the Supreme Court steps in.

Stop

[forsythvoter]

With all the attention being put on FL, I was thinking the same thing. It wouldn't totally surprise me if Trump pulled off a narrow FL win only to be shocked by one of GA, NC or TX flipping to Biden.

Lol imagine if Biden wins Texas and loses Florida

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Before people go crazy it's worth noting that a bunch of solid Republican counties just started early voting today so that probably just happens to be drowning out the usual Dem advantage on weekends.

Again, the real test is how things go tomorrow. If there isn't a big swing back towards Democrats then you have a reason to actually worry.

[BudgieForce]

Are people really writing off Florida already?

[CellarDoor]

Are people really writing off Florida already?

Bedwetters being Bedwetters. There is no data that points to a Trump win in Florida at this point. Folks are making a ton of assumptions off of data that is not meaningful. The only thing that matters in FL is Democratic turnout. If Dems turn out they win. Biden will win more NPA's than Trump and more Republicans than Trump will win Democrats.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Are people really writing off Florida already?

Bedwetters being Bedwetters. There is no data that points to a Trump win in Florida at this point. Folks are making a ton of assumptions off of data that is not meaningful. The only thing that matters in FL is Democratic turnout. If Dems turn out they win. Biden will win more NPA's than Trump and more Republicans than Trump will win Democrats.

Most of the ground Biden has made up from FL 2016 is among senior voters.  He's declined a little among latinos, but made huge gains with seniors.

Most of those seniors are probably registered Republicans.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I've seen enough people - myself included! - make stupid assumptions in previous elections based on the early vote that I've learned not to read too much into it. There are probably some exceptions in extreme cases - like in Denton County Texas, where the early vote will probably be larger than the total vote in 2016, and where we know the county is already trending Democratic - but for the most part, it's not worth it.

Further thought on Florida specifically: isn't it pretty well established that there has been a sizable shift in old Dixiecrats finally changing their registration to Republican in the last four years? I would think that has some implications for the early vote, as it's more likely that Dem registrations will in fact be Dem votes than it was in the past.

[DaleCooper]

Are people really writing off Florida already?

It's probably for the best. Even if Biden wins 100% of the National Popular Vote, Florida would still be Tilt R at best.

[ultraviolet]

People are so quick to jump to conclusions. Ever think that maybe Republicans are voting early more than usual? Everyone wants to get their vote in early, not just democrats.

Also, party ID isn’t very helpful, especially in Florida where there are tons of Republican retirees voting for Biden.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/1rHBr8rtTejop3eShKd4kOgquoBaCQ8Ty/page/qbjlB

Really nice visualization of Texas early voting with top counties as a % of 2016

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Noon Update:, 67,370 votes have been cast as of noon on Saturday.

This includes 55,966 in-person votes and 11,404 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,682,604 in-person & 929,709 by mail, for a grand total of 2,612,313 (62.71% of 2016 total vote).

[Storr]

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/1rHBr8rtTejop3eShKd4kOgquoBaCQ8Ty/page/qbjlB

Really nice visualization of Texas early voting with top counties as a % of 2016

Cool! With Hays at 97.5% after Friday it will definitely hit >100% of 2016 turnout today, which is mind blowing.  

[mijan]

Iowa  early  voting  stats have  been updated .
722634 Iowans voted  early  till today .
Today 36 k new people  voted.
IA 1
D 98922
R 52794
NPA 35683
Other 686
T 188085
D + 46128

IA 2
D 99222
R 52732
NPA 34508
O 663
T 187125
D+46490

IA 3
D 101009
R 56394
NPA 32619
O 843
T 190865
D + 44615

IA 4
D 64953
R 65124
N 25963
O 519
T 156559
R+ 171


Grand Total
D 364106
R 227044
N 128773
O 2711
Total 722634
D+ 137062

[Not Me, Us]

Early vote looks great except for Florida. I'm confident Biden will win this election, and he doesn't need Florida to do it. At this point it's better to put resources into NC, GA, TX, and AZ, all of which are looking far better for Democrats.

[TheLaRocca]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

LOL

Lurker, get back in here so we can all make fun of you!

Obviously, he has anxiety problems.

My take is that early vote looks much better for Ds than Rs (no clue how people think FL EV looks good for the GOP lol) and matches polls.

But TBH as a caveat republicans will vote hard on election day. No point in really saying who benefits from this.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I think everyone is expecting patterns in Florida to look like Pennsylvania does right now, with the huge Dem advantage in early ballots, and the assumption of like a 90-10 GOP explosion on election day. It doesn't look like that's going to be the case in FL, probably because early/mail voting has been traditional in Florida for a while and as such is less susceptible to GOP mistrust and Trump's rhetoric than Pennsylvania clearly is. Dems still have an almost-400k vote lead with 60% of 2016's total vote in, and everything is pointing to e-day being like a 60-40 R election day split.

tl;dr: doomers need to chill the f out

[Yank2133]

Remaining voters in Florida lean Biden

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1319680628871352320?s=21

LOL

Lurker, get back in here so we can all make fun of you!

Obviously, he has anxiety problems.

My take is that early vote looks much better for Ds than Rs (no clue how people think FL EV looks good for the GOP lol) and matches polls.

But TBH as a caveat republicans will vote hard on election day. No point in really saying who benefits from this.

In some states yes, but I am not sure that is true in FL given what Cohn found from their FL last week.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Dems are at 44.3% turnout among registered democrats with 10 days to go.  What more do the bedwetters here want?  The GOP is going to turn out, they always do.  It's not enough if Dems also turn out.  Dems are turning out.  Jesus, take a Xanax.

[mijan]

More facts about Iowa early voting

Today for the first time GOP win early vote in IA. They win by 300 votes. But, I think its too late.

R finally takes 176 votes lead in IA 4. R outnumbers  D in IA 4 210k to 120 k in terms of registered  voters.
But, Dems are still going strong in other three, remember Polk county still has many ballots yet to return .

227k Gop voters have voted early , in 2016 225 k R voted early . 2k R more voted in 2020, but they still blown away as 364 k D have voted early , in 2016 267 k D voted early. 97 k D more voted in 2020.


899 k voters requested for early ballots .
D 436 k
R 285 k

Overall R are still in poor conditions and on their way to lose Pres,senate, and IA 1,2,3. If there is below the average turnout on election day in IA 4, they could lose IA 4 also.

[lfromnj]

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/1rHBr8rtTejop3eShKd4kOgquoBaCQ8Ty/page/qbjlB

Really nice visualization of Texas early voting with top counties as a % of 2016

Cool! With Hays at 97.5% after Friday it will definitely hit >100% of 2016 turnout today, which is mind blowing.  

Technically Hays turnout is still lower , its grown like 50% this decade FWIW, so nearly like 15% over for 4 years.

[roxas11]

You just never know with Florida

I remember during the 2012 election Mitt Romney was leading in most FL polls and on election night The Obama campaign said that they expected Romney to win Florida

But as the numbers came in on election night Obama pulled off a shocking upset and won a state that even his own campaign said he was going to lose lol

It just goes to show that we dont truly know what FL is going to do until all the votes are counted. So yes the early vote looks ok for Trump so far but things also looked even Better for Mitt Romney in 2012 and look at how that worked out for him in the end......

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

More facts about Iowa early voting

Today for the first time GOP win early vote in IA. They win by 300 votes. But, I think its too late.

R finally takes 176 votes lead in IA 4. R outnumbers  D in IA 4 210k to 120 k in terms of registered  voters.
But, Dems are still going strong in other three, remember Polk county still has many ballots yet to return .

227k Gop voters have voted early , in 2016 225 k R voted early . 2k R more voted in 2020, but they still blown away as 364 k D have voted early , in 2016 267 k D voted early. 97 k D more voted in 2020.


899 k voters requested for early ballots .
D 436 k
R 285 k

Overall R are still in poor conditions and on their way to lose Pres,senate, and IA 1,2,3. If there is below the average turnout on election day in IA 4, they could lose IA 4 also.

Where are you getting your IA early vote data?