Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[King of Kensington]

Maybe in 2015, but in 2011 it was 51% Tories in York, while 54% in Durham, and 55% in Halton.  Certainly in 2006 and 2008, Halton was Harper's strongest followed by Durham, than York, and then Peel.  I think last election, Harper got around 45% in both York and Halton while closer to 40% in Durham.

Oakville is more "establishment" and showed an aversion to Ford.  The PC vote only went up modestly and the PC vote share (44%) there was lower there than in every single York Region riding.  Kevin Flynn received the highest vote share of any Liberal in the 905 belt (36%).  Compare that to say the Vaughan ridings which saw very big swings to the PCs.

Burlington too was pretty Ford-averse for a "traditional Tory" riding.  Oakville and Burlington are thought of more or less interchangable affluent suburbs but there are some differences.  Oakville is much wealthier while Burlington has a fairly progressive urbanized core (the NDP got 34% of the vote in Burlington, in contrast to just 16% in Oakvlle). 

Moving to Durham Region, which is more working class than York and Halton, the NDP received over 30% in Pickering, Ajax and Whitby.  What's interesting is that there wasn't a significance in the NDP between "winnable" Whitby and "unwinnable" Ajax and Pickering.

[King of Kensington]

A very quick look at the poll-by-poll maps suggests Rickford probably would have won in 2015 under the Kenora-Rainy River riding boundaries (which is basically Kenora proper, Dryden and Rainy River district I believe).  With the less favorable federal boundaries, minimal FN support and high FN turnout did him in.

Then again, it's hard to know what impact Howard Hampton's presence on the ballot would have had in Rainy River.

[adma]

Though Kenora-Rainy River is geographically deceptive; one'd assume that the rural parts would be predominantly blue, with the orange hyperconcentrated in reserves and urban nodes like Fort Frances--so the map might look "Toryer" than the vote reality.

I would be surprised if the Greens didn't win Wellington County. The non Guelph part of the county is not that populated. Most of Wellington-Halton Hills is actually Halton Hills.

Let's remember that part of Wellington County (and a very Tory part at that) is in Perth-Wellington as well.

[mileslunn]

I would be surprised if the Greens didn't win Wellington County. The non Guelph part of the county is not that populated. Most of Wellington-Halton Hills is actually Halton Hills.

Let's remember that part of Wellington County (and a very Tory part at that) is in Perth-Wellington as well.
[/quote]

Also I think Wellington-Halton Hills is about 50% Wellington County and 50% Halton Hills.  You have decent size towns in Wellington County such as Mount Forest in Perth-Wellington and Fergus in Wellington-Halton Hills while Guelph/Eramosa and Puslinsch may be largely rural, but still have close to 10,000 people as rural Southern Ontario unlike the Prairies is a lot more densely populated (more akin to rural Eastern US or rural areas in Europe as opposed to elsewhere in Canada).  For comparison in 2011, Tories only got 32% in Guelph, but 44% in Wellington County so if we assume a similar difference that would put the PCs at 33% in Wellington County while the remaining 2/3s split between the NDP and Greens and Liberals although Greens probably highest and Liberals lowest.  Still I would have to crunch the numbers to confirm.  Certainly if PCs did win it, it was due to strong vote split albeit to be fair rural parts went over 50% PC while they barely cracked the 20% mark in Guelph.

[King of Kensington]

Re: would Rickford have won federally on the K-RR boundaries my guess is yes. 

Kenora and Dryden

Rickford (Conservative)  4,515
Nault (Liberal)  4,096
Hampton (NDP)  2,928

and Fort Frances

NDP  1,494
Liberals  1,366
Conservatives  977

The Conservatives actually came in third in Fort Frances, but the Conservatives just edged out the Liberals if Kenora, Dryden and Fort Frances (by 30 votes!) altogether.  Since the rural areas around Fort Frances look pretty blue (I haven't bothered to add them in) I'm guessing that would put the Conservatives in the lead.  Furthermore I'm guessing any "Hampton hometown effect" (assuming this was still a Rickford-Nault-Hampton battle) would likely have hurt the Liberals more, allowing Rickford to have come up the middle. 

BTW, Hampton won the non-Kenora/Dryden part of Kenora federal riding.  Nault's path to victory was being competitive everywhere.

[Hatman 🍁]

I already did this transposition earlier in this thread; Rickford did win krr in 2015.

[mileslunn]

I was able to get spreadsheet data and clear maps of municipal boundaries so may take a few weeks but will have county maps of Ontario while municipal for Southern Ontario (much of Northern Ontario unorganized) once I get a chance hopefully unless someone beats me to it.

[Hatman 🍁]

if you post the data, I can make the maps.

[mileslunn]

if you post the data, I can make the maps.

Will work on it over the next few weeks, but it looks a bit easier than I thought. Definitely can PM it or I also have maps from 2008 with municipal and county boundaries so can just re-colour those as I don't think there have been any changes since.

[King of Kensington]

One interesting thing to look at is the exurbs attached to rural counties, like Dufferin-Caledon and Wellington-Halton Hills.  Did Caledon and Halton Hills voted any differently than the Dufferin and Wellington parts of their ridings?

[mileslunn]

One interesting thing to look at is the exurbs attached to rural counties, like Dufferin-Caledon and Wellington-Halton Hills.  Did Caledon and Halton Hills voted any differently than the Dufferin and Wellington parts of their ridings?

Doesn't look like they did.  Mind you Durham and York-Simcoe are largely exurban ridings and they voted pretty solidly PC although Durham was slightly closer, probably due to Oshawa influence as it seems PCs won every poll there but only narrowly in Oshawa and Bowmanville while be bigger margins outside Oshawa urban area.  Carleton which is an Ottawa exurb had similar numbers while in Flamborough-Glanbrook a Hamilton exurb it was close in the Glanbrook portion, but Flamborough went heavily PC.

[mileslunn]

if you post the data, I can make the maps.

One thing I would like to do is Toronto, Ottawa, and Hamilton pre-amalgamation as the maps I have don't give those so with the boundaries drawn up I could give a rough estimate of they went.  Etobicoke and Scarborough I already have as ridings perfectly correspond to previous boundaries but not others.  I am guessing in Toronto, PCs won North York, but York, East York, and Toronto went NDP.  For Hamilton, my guess is Hamilton, Dundas, and Stoney Creek went NDP while Flamborough, Ancaster, and Glanbrook PC.  For Ottawa, probably Liberal for Ottawa, Vanier, Rockcliffe Park, and Cumberland (not 100% sure on last two though).  Not sure about Gloucester.  PC for Nepean and Kanata (although only plurality) while over 50% PC in West Carleton, Goulbourn, Rideau, and Osgoode (otherwise the still largely rural ones).

[King of Kensington]

The megapolls don't line up perfectly well with old municipalities in the former city of Toronto and "the Yorks" so it'll take a little guesswork.  Etobicoke and Scarborough long had the firmest community boundaries (west of Humber River and east of Victoria Park, respectively).

[King of Kensington]

It seems that Ottawa South and Sarnia held up as "fool's gold" ridings for the PCs and NDP, respectively, in this election.

[mileslunn]

It seems that Ottawa South and Sarnia held up as "fool's gold" ridings for the PCs and NDP, respectively, in this election.

I will have to crunch numbers but looks like Sarnia itself was pretty competitive, the rural parts went massively PC as they always do thus PC win. In Brantford-Brant had same thing with NDP winning almost all Brantford polls, but PC's running up the margins elsewhere except six nations reserve which went NDP.  Still it seems outside the larger cities in Southwestern Ontario, NDP gains were smaller than PC (example, Ingersoll went NDP in 2014 but PC in 2018) otherwise I think a fair number of dipper votes in smaller communities were Tories who felt Hudak went too far and thus returned. For whatever reason it seems be it 2011 federally and 2018 provincially, Liberal vote holds up in Ottawa even when shellshacked elsewhere.

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa seems to have a lot of "too educated to vote PC, too bourgeois to vote NDP" types and perhaps a bit of a "NOVA" dynamic. Ford was not a good fit for Ottawa and the PCs only made only modest gains (1 real seat gain by the tiniest of margins and reclaiming the "renegade" PC/Trillium seat).  Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South were the only seats the Liberals won by more than 10 percentage points.  

Ottawa was also very Liberal in 1990 and resistant to the NDP wave.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like the old city of Ottawa probably went Liberal, but not necessarily. The NDP won Ottawa Centre by 8k votes, and if you lob off Gloucester, Vanier and Rockcliffe Park from Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South, you're probably looking at a Liberal lead of 10k, so it comes down to Ottawa West-Nepean, the Ottawa portions of whcih did go NDP by maybe 3k votes? That would actually put the NDP ahead!

[King of Kensington]

There's no hard data on this but it would be interesting to know what how John Tory and Doug Ford '14 voters went in this election (obviously virtually all of Olivia Chow's voters voted NDP).

[mileslunn]

There's no hard data on this but it would be interesting to know what how John Tory and Doug Ford '14 voters went in this election (obviously virtually all of Olivia Chow's voters voted NDP).

I am guessing most of Doug Ford's voters went for him but in the heart of Ford Nation he underperformed while overperformed a bit in the more affluent areas that soundly rejected him.  I am guessing around 75% of Ford voters went PC while the remaining quarter went mostly NDP or Liberal.  Of John Tory voters, probably a fairly even split.  No doubt most didn't go PC, but definitely some did and also some went NDP although a lot of the NDP ones were probably more strategic anti-Ford voters as many on the left strategically voted for Tory to keep Ford out and that group probably went NDP.  While I doubt the majority of his voters went Liberal, I suspect the vast majority whom stuck with the Liberals did go for John Tory.

[adma]

One interesting thing to look at is the exurbs attached to rural counties, like Dufferin-Caledon and Wellington-Halton Hills.  Did Caledon and Halton Hills voted any differently than the Dufferin and Wellington parts of their ridings?

It is worth noting that Caledon's rapidly-growing Brampton-spillover subdivisions around Hurontario/Kennedy also seemed to echo Bramptonian voting patterns in that the NDP vote was 30%+.

[mileslunn]

Currently working on the data by municipality and county.  Anybody have a pre amalgamation map for Toronto, Ottawa, and Hamilton and with the street boundaries of the former municipalities.  Using that I can figure out the results also pre amalgamation which I think would be interesting too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Currently working on the data by municipality and county.  Anybody have a pre amalgamation map for Toronto, Ottawa, and Hamilton and with the street boundaries of the former municipalities.  Using that I can figure out the results also pre amalgamation which I think would be interesting too.

You can always use topoquest: https://www.topoquest.com/map.php?lat=45.416667&lon=-75.683333&datum=nad83&zoom=8&map=50k

[mileslunn]

Currently working on the data by municipality and county.  Anybody have a pre amalgamation map for Toronto, Ottawa, and Hamilton and with the street boundaries of the former municipalities.  Using that I can figure out the results also pre amalgamation which I think would be interesting too.

You can always use topoquest: https://www.topoquest.com/map.php?lat=45.416667&lon=-75.683333&datum=nad83&zoom=8&map=50k

I will try that.  Might not be exact but at least ballpark numbers.  Actually even for counties and municipalities, advanced polls can be problematic for some of the less populated municipalities but by and large most of them were solidly NDP in the north solidly PC in the south so non-issue.

[mileslunn]

For Hamilton pre-amalgamation, NDP won Hamilton, Dundas, and Stoney Creek while PCs won Glanbrook, Flamborough, and Ancaster so seems the Niagara Enscarpment was the dividing point.  Below are the results by former Hamilton municipality

Ancaster

PC 42.7%
NDP 31.7%
Liberal 20.3%

Dundas

NDP 48.6%
PC 24.5%
Liberal 20.6%


Flamborough

PC 46.5%
NDP 26.2%
Liberal 19.8%

Glanbrook

PC 42.3%
NDP 39.3%
Liberal 12.3%

Hamilton (old city)

NDP 57.9%
PC 22.2%
Liberal 12%

Stoney Creek

NDP 44.9%
PC 34.7%
Liberal 13.3%


Haven't done Ottawa and Toronto, but was able to do Etobicoke and Scarborough as ridings correspond with previous boundaries.  Will give East York, York, North York, and Toronto later once completed.

Etobicoke

PC 43.4%
Liberal26.7%
NDP 25.4%

Scarborough

PC39.9%
NDP 31.5%
Liberal 24.1%

[King of Kensington]

Dundas voting to the left of Stoney Creek seems to be evidence of the Ford effect.