🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

It appears we finally have CROSSOVER!

(where's that "Its Happening" gif)

Yep, Forsa poll:

Vote share %:

23% SPD (+2)
22% CDU/CSU (-1)
18% Grüne (-1)
12% FDP (nc)
10% AfD (nc)
  6% Linke (nc)
  9% Others (nc)

Poll conducted between 16 and 23 August 2021. Polled 2,504 voters.

THANK YOU ARMIN, VERY COOL

[President Johnson]

They would need to win three direct mandates to be exempted.  They currently have five, four in Berlin and one in Leipzig, and the four in Berlin were won fairly comfortably last time.

Yes. The issue is that if they really were to drop under 5% (which still doesn't look likely!) they will have lost a huge chunk of their support from 2017 and there's little chance that this would not also show up in direct vote preferences in those or any other set of constituencies. It would be, at best, dicey.

If both CSU (5 % according to INSA) and Linke fall below 5 % but get saved by the three-district rule, this would be the first time in history that two parties below five percent (since creation of the federal threshold) still get seats (exempting SSW).

Btw, the Linke might still get troubles even if they got saved by their direct representatives. As far as I'm concerned, they wouldn't be allowed to form a parliamentary group with full rights ("Fraktion") but only a "Gruppe", which has less significance in the parliamentary process, especially when it comes to funding. Not 100% sure though.

This was actually the case in 2002, when the PDS (East German predecessor of Die Linke) won two or three districts while failing to get 5% of the national popular vote. Consequently, they did have these members without the status as a parliamentary faction. Not having the status as faction makes everything much more difficult in the Bundestag's daily business for said members.

[President Johnson]

What's going on in Ravensburg that makes it a potential Green pickup there? The other ones in Baden-Württemberg are like Tübgingen and Freiburg, which make a lot more intuitive sense. But Ravensburg? there's like pig all there , no?

All of these including Ravensburg are university cities. Young academics tend to support the Greens.

[President Johnson]

The SPD should even get more than 28% in Hamburg. In his state election campaigns of 2011 and 2015, Scholz crushed his opponents at 48% and 45%.

Yeah, it looks like the race is pretty much tied between SPD and Union at this point. I hope we see the SPD to start polling ahead more frequently now, ideally outside the margin of error (2-3%).

[President Johnson]

Super good ad from the SPD, will translate after work

Yeah, a very powerful ad. Hopefully they run this up and down.

There's also a new poll with another tie at 23%:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1430840913966796808

[President Johnson]

So. much. winning. Genosse Olaf is crushing it.





https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1431169398224695298

[President Johnson]

I guess the question is if a good Scholtz performance actually changes the calculus on government formation. Say the SPD surges after a good performance and is at around 28-30% - wouldn’t most of their support come from squishy Greens? Union must already be pretty close to their floor, doubtful they have that much soft support left to bleed.

Probably, but it would give them a clear mandate to govern. It should also be noted that thanks to a complicated seat calculation system, the Union could still narrowly become largest parliamentary group if both parties are almost tied. The system of overhang and compensatory seats (party gets more districts than seats it should have, also based on federal states...) was somewhat reformed to avoid a Parliament that increases too much in size... But I haven't met one single person that could really explain now at which point an overhang seats does get compensated or not. And I know many political nerds.

Also, a stronger SPD might be a favor for the Liberals and ultimately a traffic light coalition, as they would have to concede less to two center-left parties in a three way coalition (although Jamaica would still be the FDP's preferred option). The FDP is vying for the office of Finance Minister... but as 3rd largest party, it would be difficult to demand that. If the Greens fall to be roughly even with the FDP, FDP's chances to get that Ministry are somewhat higher.

I guess CDU/CSU's definite floor is ~15 %. Their campaign is in full disarray, nobody knows what the party stands for and even less people want Laschet as Chancellor.

I think Lindner has a good chance to become Finance Minister in a trafficlight coalition, even if the Greens end up having more votes. Both the SPD and Greens would have to make concessions because they both would obviously prefer Trafficlight to Jamaica or Germany coalition. Green co-leader Robert Habeck is said to have ambitions for the post, but he could easily become head of an "upgraded" Environment Ministry while Baerbock is vice chancellor and foreign minister (good riddance Heiko Maas, he was a poor choice for the job).

Assuming the SPD ends up between 21% and 26%, Greens between 14% and 19% and the FDP in the 10-13% range, I could see the following cabinet allocation:

- Chancellor: Olaf Scholz (SPD)
- Foreign/vice chancellor: Annalena Baerbock (Greens)
- Finance: Christian Lindner (FDP)
- Labor: SPD (keep Hubertus Heil please)
- Economy: FDP (Linda Teuteberg or Wolfgang Kubicki would be good)
- Environment and climate: Robert Habeck (Greens)
- Interior: SPD (please Boris Pistorius)
- Health: SPD (hopefully Karl Lauterbach)
- Justice: Greens (I'd like Cem Özedmir, before he hopefully replaces Kretschmann in a few years)
- Defense: SPD (former MdB Rainer Arnold would be a comptent choice)
- Digitalization (new): FDP
- Traffic: Greens
- Agriculture: Greens
- Family: SPD
- Education: SPD
- Economic Development: FDP
- Head of chancellery: SPD

I wonder whether Baerbock and Habeck would quit the party leadership then since the Greens have a rule to separate government and party posts. Maybe they change that? Baerbock and Habeck would still be de facto leaders.

Although I prefer trafficlight to red-red-green, it would be very important that these three parties have a parliamentary majority. In this case, the SPD and Greens would have a lot more leverage over the FDP because they could threaten a "left-leaning government" and Lindner feel compelled to seriously negotiate a SPD-Greens-FDP government to prevent a left-wing shift. Without a red-red-green majority, Lindner could insist on a Jamaica or Germany coalition, which wouldn't the in the best interest for both the SPD and the Greens. Especially if the SPD is the strongest party and Olaf fails to become chancellor. Laschet may be replaced by Söder then, as a SPIEGEL columnist recently wrote.

[President Johnson]

- Chancellor: Olaf Scholz (SPD)
- Foreign/vice chancellor: Annalena Baerbock (Greens)
- Finance: Christian Lindner (FDP)
- Labor: SPD (keep Hubertus Heil please)
- Economy: FDP (Linda Teuteberg or Wolfgang Kubicki would be good)
- Environment and climate: Robert Habeck (Greens)
- Interior: SPD (please Boris Pistorius)
- Health: SPD (hopefully Karl Lauterbach)
- Justice: Greens (I'd like Cem Özedmir, before he hopefully replaces Kretschmann in a few years)
- Defense: SPD (former MdB Rainer Arnold would be a comptent choice)
- Digitalization (new): FDP
- Traffic: Greens
- Agriculture: Greens
- Family: SPD
- Education: SPD
- Economic Development: FDP
- Head of chancellery: SPD

I would love to see Katarina Barley return to the cabinet, though it is quite unlikely. She always had genuine intentions. It's a pity that she was too nice to say no to Andrea Nahles when she asked her to be the lead candidate in the 2019 EU-elections. She easily could have become SPD-co leader if she was a bit more visible in federal politics. Being vice-president of the European parliament is pretty pointless, save for having a nice-sounding title. It's not easy to come back once you've made a bad trade to Brussels, but I wouldn't mind. She could also become Malu Dreyer's successor in RLP. Barley is popular in Trier.

I agree, Barley is competent and likeable and I was kinda disappointed when she left the federal government in 2019. I just don't think she'll return to national politics. Would definitely be a better party leader than Saskia Esken despite the fact I've known the latter personally long before she ran for her current post (her mother still lives in my town; also remember her coming all the way from her district to a local Juso barbecue I organized here in 2016 as local Juso chairman). Esken however would be a competent choice for any government role related to digitalization as she's an expert on the issue. I still voted for Scholz in both rounds during the party leadership election and I'm glad she and NoWaBo have stayed out of the public spotlight in recent weeks and allow Scholz to be the party's public frontman.

[President Johnson]

Just watched the debate. I don't think it changes much fundamentally. Neither candidate had a clear cut "victory", nor did anyone had a very weak performance. Laschet was actually better or more passionate than I expected him to be, even though the bar may have been low for him given recent weeks.

Overall it was certainly an issue-oriented and very civil debate, which may be more important than anything else in these times we live in.

[President Johnson]

Wow, good for Scholz. I'm glad Baerbock is a strong second here, because he needs strong Greens as long the SPD remains ahead.

Genosse Olaf definitely appeared cool and competent as usual (he's a professional), I only found him a little struggling by ruling a coalition with Die Linke out. As I said, I prefer trafficlight over Red-Green-Red, though a nominal left majority gives Scholz and Baerbock more leverage on Lindner to form such a government.

As for Laschet, definitely not the result you'd like to see here, given his poll numbers. However, as I said, I didn't find his performance that weak. It was ok, not very strong, not bad either.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1432360372019793924?s=20

This. is. f-ing. insane.

Posters who know me are aware I rarely use the f-word in any sense. But here it's fully appropriate. Genosse Olaf has unleashed his bazooka again. This time for real.

And I repeat myself: THANK YOU ARMIN, VERY COOL.

[President Johnson]

Could the SPD and Greens not just have a minority coalition with Linke confidence/supply? Or are such arrangements verboten in German political culture?

We don't really do minority governments.
There is one in Thuringia right now (Linke-SPD-Greens with a weird sort-of arrangement with the CDU) and there was one from 2010 to 2012 in NRW (SPD-Greens with confidence and supply from Linke). These are the two recent examples.
There has been none on the federal level and I'm not sure whether Olaf would want to experiment. In fact, he does not seem like a person who likes experiments.

Yeah, I don't see him doing it either. Merkel also immediately rejected the idea in 2013 although the Union was just five or six seats short of an absolute majority. In this case, SPD and Greens combined are always in the low 40s, which wouldn't be that close to a majority.

Overall, I think the FDP would be the more reliable coalition partner at the federal level because there seem less internal divisions and the party actually has a governing experience. The ideal realistic outcome would be a majority for R2G, which would pressure Lindner to go into a trafficlight coalition as sort of "centrist corrective". Die Linke would certainly be in dilemma here because part of their appeal is protest votes and strong ideology. Offering severe concessions to the SPD and Greens may very well make them look obsolete in voters eyes. On the other hand, the FDP may lose a lot of disaffected CDU voters.

Of course, the best outcome would be an outright Red-Green majority, though that's not going to happen. The SPD would at least need the 25% of the recent poll while the Greens need to find additional voters to get to 21-22%. And not at the expense of the SPD (and vise versa).

[President Johnson]

Another day, another two great polls. SPD massive surge now confirmed by multiple pollsters. Just a reminder: Laschet is 2-3% away from third place. Lmao.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1432678139143073795
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1432695140280328199

[President Johnson]

DOMINATING

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1432783939719110656

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1432790798421135368

[President Johnson]

Regarding the Brandenburg poll: It might be a minor factor, but as Scholz is running as top candidate in Brandenburg, that might give him a small home state bonus, although it is probably negligible.

I thought Scholz was from the west and was once mayor of Hamburg? He may be on a list in Brandenburg for purely symbolic reasons but he is not an "Ossie" in the way Merkel is/was

He moved to Postdam after becoming Finance Minister. His wife Britta Ernst was already serving as Brandenburg's Education Minister at the time.

[President Johnson]

Oh. my. lord. I love this timeline. CDU is in total disarray and Laschet's numbers are beyond pathetic.


Some more numbers from the Infratest survey:

Chancellor preference:




Most likeable and most authentic:




Strongest leader:




Most competent:



https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2735.html

[President Johnson]

Just did the Wahl-O-Mat:

[President Johnson]

The victories in Peru and Germany and the two Democratically elected senators in Georgia would single-handedly make 2021 not the worst year ever. Despite it being quite bad in terms of non-election events.

I know the election has yet to happen, but I think the only way from now on is up, because SPD is now seen as a viable candidate party, and given Scholz is very popular, and that many people have yet to decide. They probably break 30%. Some Greens and Linke voters might change from ship too, but we will see.

I wouldn't want to make a call at this point either. If the numbers don't move to Scholz' disadvantage until mid September, I don't see how Laschet is turning it around. Vote by mail is already beginning and will be at a record high this year, especially due to the pandemic (it was increasing even before). The Greens are probably out for good in the race for chancellor, though Baerbock has excellent chances to become foreign minister and vice chancellor in the next government regardless of who comes out on top.

If Scholz becomes chancellor, 2021 is probably the best year for me personally, as three individuals have become head of government that I all wanted since 2019. Back then, I twice voted for Scholz in the race for party leader and I obviously was for Joe Biden ever since he announced his presidential bid. And you can back to my posts from 2019, I wanted to Kathy Hochul to succeed Cuomo as governor even then.

[President Johnson]

By the way, I wonder how the CSU will perform in Bavaria if these numbers hold up or don't move that much anymore? In the end, it could very well show that Söder is a paper tiger, especially with a result of 35% or even less. Remember that Horst Seehofer basically had to resign as Minister-President and "rescue" himself as Interior Minister after the CSU ended up with 38% in the 2017 federal election. A result, that was considered a fullscale debacle at the time and helped Söder to take over the job as Bavaria's chief executive. A year later, Söder himself was responsible for one of the worst CSU result in a state election, just (by CSU standards) winning 37% of the vote.

[President Johnson]

And... another day, another two polls with the SPD leading. Now with multiple pollsters having basically the same numbers confirms the state of the race as of now: The Union is stuck in the 20-22% range while the SPD is around 25%. The Greens are probably around 15-18% at this point.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1433662915068977152

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1433834710879379471


Chancellor preference. Genosse Olaf is DOMINATING. That's his biggest lead so far:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1433714407146729476

[President Johnson]

Scholz’s preferred chancellor leads are insane. When are the attacks going to start coming?

They've started already, they just don't seem to be very effective. Laschet has repeatedly attacked Scholz for not explicitly stating that he would not enter a coalition with the Linke. The Union has tried to portray Scholz as a closeted leftist OR as someone who would invite leftists into the government OR as someone who is secretly controlled by the leftists within the SPD. So far, few have found that convincing.

Yeah, but even Deputy Chair and member of the left wing Kevin Kühnert gave a rhetorically strong response to CDU General Secretary Ziemiak the other day on Live TV. "Do you really think Olaf Scholz - I repeat Olaf Scholz - is running through the Reichstag with a red flag?"

I'm glad neither the Wirecard issue nor Cum-Ex had stuck with him. Although nothing is proven, it could have put the campaign in trouble. Baerbock would have been under more scrutiny in the same position I guess. She was definitely not treated fairly with her missteps.

[President Johnson]

And another poll:

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1434250525114052613


Scholz is also starting to draw large crowds in recent days at different locations, like here in Göttingen:

https://twitter.com/OlafScholz/status/1434178398369288192

[President Johnson]

The SPD continues to surge, now at 26%, up one point from two days before. As voting by mail is already under way and expected to be nearly half of all ballots cast in the end, I'd really be worried as CDU/CSU. But definitely well deserved, as the party doesn't stand for anything and their campaign as a mess. This goes well beyond Laschet's weakness and even Söder will be damaged with these results as this points to a weak performance by the CSU as well. A result of 20-22% would be an absolute earthquake and just half of the vote in 2013. Who would have thought this is possible?

Meanwhile, Scholz is drawing larger crowds than anyone would have expected, even got over 2,000 people in Leipzig, Saxony, which isn't a Social Democratic bastion. And the party is more united than ever. Maybe he lost the 2019 leadership race for good, as Esken and NoWaBo are keeping the party's left wing very happy.

And lastly, looks like Baerbock is essentially out of the contest for the chancellorship, though she has good chances to become vice chancellor and foreign minister in any cabinet involving her party. She'd be a solid choice for the job in my opinion. Better than empty suit Heiko Maas (and I'm saying this as proud SPD member).

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1434889642244022272

[President Johnson]

Ladies and Gentlemen, it looks like we're witnessing a fullscale (and well deserved) collapse of the CDU. Latest poll is at 19%. I repeat 19%. The Union is in full disarray. And looking at the poll from Bavaria, if remotely accurate, Sonnenkönig Söder will be exposed as a paper tiger rather than an unbeatable titan.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1435182704656539648

[President Johnson]

That map is really insane. Especially the SPD taking all districts in Saxony Anhalt after the disastrous results of the state election in June.