Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Middle-aged Europe]

If Putin nukes Ukraine that basically means we may as well go in anyways.

Probably wouldn't happen for the obvious reasons. But I suppose the entire West would have to go "all in" on all non-intervention measures then. Full gas embargo by NATO/EU/G7 countries. Complete removal from SWIFT. Complete ban on Russian ships entering any Western harbours. At the very least a part of NATO and EU (probably Eastern Europe except for Hungary) breaking off diplomatic relations with Russia. "Fast-track" admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO. Maybe the first serious push to remove Russia from the UN Security Council. EU debating whether it needs a nuclear arsenal of its own (outside of France's). Significant deployment of American troops to Central/Eastern Europe. Germany reinstating its military draft etc. etc.

[CumbrianLefty]

And making it clear to Putin and his henchmen they are persona non grata in the most literal sense (ie that they have forfeited the right to their own lives)

I'm convinced that will prove as much of a deterrent as anything.

[Logical]

Russia has enough dumb bombs, artillery shells and rockets to turn Kharkiv and the Donbas into Verdun. But to do what the Russian ultranats want (obliterate Ukrainian infrastructure) would require them to gain air superiority, something they have failed to achieve 50 days in. They simply do not have enough precision guided missiles to do it. We already see the Russians pulling out retired Tochkas from the storage bases after running out of Iskanders, soon they might even dig out the Scuds.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1515629956495286275
Holy moly is this is true and the Russian army and the separatist forces are starting to have a schism 👀

[Horus]

I highly doubt Russia will use nukes but if they did, would Tucker still defend them?

[ugabug]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1515629956495286275
Holy moly is this is true and the Russian army and the separatist forces are starting to have a schism 👀

Always nice to see some trouble in paradise.

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1515686153046958081

[Middle-aged Europe]

German interior ministry reports that officially ca. 355,000 Ukrainian war refugees are now in Germany which apparently is a plus of 4,000 compared to yesterday.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BMI_Bund/status/1515600884302028800

The actual number is unknown, but expected to be signifcantly higher because there's essentially an open borders policy with regards to Ukraine in place and refugees don't need to register themselves in any way. This is a political consensus that even seems to extend to the AfD for the time being (don't know whether the AfD considers them a potential future voter group for themselves although they'd probably need to significantly tone down their pro-Russian or "neutral" rethoric first for that to happen).

My personal observation is that cars with Ukrainian license plates have become a common occurrence in Berlin during these past two months, almost surpassing Polish license plates as the most commonly seen foreign plate by now. Ukrainians seem to have a bit of a preference for any form of SUV, or maybe that's just the type of car you can transport the most people and suitcases with over  long distance. If you have to choose you probably wouldn't pick the minicompact. These days, you also tend to run into slightly confused non-German/non-English speaking women with kids who want to get directed to the nearest subway station.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1515629956495286275
Holy moly is this is true and the Russian army and the separatist forces are starting to have a schism 👀

Always nice to see some trouble in paradise.

Separatists not happy about Russian treatment of Ukrainian civilians or something?

[ugabug]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1515629956495286275
Holy moly is this is true and the Russian army and the separatist forces are starting to have a schism 👀

Always nice to see some trouble in paradise.

Separatists not happy about Russian treatment of Ukrainian civilians or something?

Probably. I'm sure a lot of them have have family in the areas being fought over. Also remember seeing something on either this forum or another one about men from the separatist regions being drafted and forced to fight.

[pppolitics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1515629956495286275
Holy moly is this is true and the Russian army and the separatist forces are starting to have a schism 👀

It probably has something to do with forced conscripts in those areas.

[Sir Mohamed]

I wonder if this will become the biggest thread on the site. If the war lasts the rest of the year like Blinken estimates and it keeps pushing 2-4 pages a day, it will get there easily.

We should all hope the war ends before we reach a record number of pages. But it's certainly a possibility here. Unfortunately.

[DaleCooper]

I highly doubt Russia will use nukes but if they did, would Tucker still defend them?

I don't think many of the pro-Russia people would be bold enough to defend it, but we'd suddenly start hearing a lot about Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

[NOVA Green]

Line of Russian and Belarusian trucks stuck at Polish border as EU sanctions deadline passes.

A huge queue of trucks has formed on the Poland-Belarus border as Russian and Belarussian drivers try to leave the EU following a sanctions deadline.

In the run-up to the Saturday deadline, the line extended to 80km (60 miles), with some stuck for up to 33 hours.

The EU has banned lorries from Russia and Belarus - except those carrying medicine, mail or petroleum products - from entering or staying in the bloc.

However, it is unclear what will happen to thousands of other trucks from the two countries estimated to currently be on EU territory.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61133439

[NOVA Green]

Russia's military failures in Ukraine are starting to impact their arms exporting businesses.


https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1515444372120162306?s=20&t=rgXxHQd3...

[NOVA Green]

Might not be directly relevant within the context of the war in Ukraine, but certainly long term shows the risks to losing some of your most advanced hardware in an offensive war.

https://twitter.com/marcogiann/status/1515615169841352705?s=20&t=rgXxHQd3JTB...

[NOVA Green]

Perhaps Russia could carefully consider how much more military hardware, especially tanks they want to invest in losing in Ukraine, since looks like it might be some time before they can build any more.


https://twitter.com/MargoGontar/status/1515373221855608834?s=20&t=rgXxHQd3JT...

[Storr]

Might not be directly relevant within the context of the war in Ukraine, but certainly long term shows the risks to losing some of your most advanced hardware in an offensive war.

https://twitter.com/marcogiann/status/1515615169841352705?s=20&t=rgXxHQd3JTB...

Reportedly, the risk of hardware falling into western hands (and the low number in service, according to wikipedia only 10 test and 5 serial planes have been built) is why Russia hasn't deployed its newest and most advanced fighter, the Su-57. Though the Su-35 only went into service in 2014, so its remains will have useful intelligence value for the US.

[Storr]

Solovyov is not pleased:

https://twitter.com/KCCOvilla88/status/1515632132592660485?s=20&t=1AuLHftW88...

[ugabug]

So is Russia finally being open about the fact that Ukraine destroyed it?

[DINGO Joe]

So is Russia finally being open about the fact that Ukraine destroyed it?

LoL.  No they'll just do the same schitzo crap they always do.

[Storr]

This will never get old.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1515717786084986889?s=20&t=f3W4LMtA7bup...

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1515667034897534976

[Pres Mike]

Is Kyiv safe for now? Have the Russians given up on regime change?

I'm guessing Putin's goal now is to eat as much of eastern Ukraine now for the strongest possible position at peace talks?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1515667034897534976

I agree that a conventional military response would be the correct response to use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia:

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1515667063221727235?s=20&t=jVCNXa...